What’s going to happen when China lifts its zero covid policy?

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Here, it was a combination of good vaccines and natural immunity for those who didn’t get vaccines. It was immunity from whichever source that finally tamed the big, uncontrolled surges. China doesn’t have that. They have less-effective vaccines, and little natural immunity. So I think it’s likely they will have the massive surges and high death rates thst most countries have gotten past at this point.

 

[jderimig]

Oh really?

I was just talking about timing. Of course the penetration of a very good Covid vaccine was also responsible. That sped up the process quite a bit.

 

[jderimig]

Here, it was a combination of good vaccines and natural immunity for those who didn’t get vaccines. It was immunity from whichever source that finally tamed the big, uncontrolled surges. China doesn’t have that. They have less-effective vaccines, and little natural immunity. So I think it’s likely they will have the massive surges and high death rates thst most countries have gotten past at this point.

I agree. Is there any word if China will now import or have the mRNA vaccines? At least for there risk populations?

 

[boatgeek]

I agree. Is there any word if China will now import or have the mRNA vaccines? At least for there risk populations?

I think that the party line is that the Sinovac is just as good or better than the mRNA vaccines. Therefore, there is no need to import.

 

[CalebJ]

I was just talking about timing. Of course the penetration of a very good Covid vaccine was also responsible. That sped up the process quite a bit.

Do you actually think that the rest of us believe this?

Whether you have the backbone to stand up for your claims or not, you very deliberately implied that the cause of the pandemic ending was loosening of covid restrictions.

And now you're backpedaling because you don't have the nerve to acknowledge it.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I agree. Is there any word if China will now import or have the mRNA vaccines? At least for there risk populations?

I haven’t heard that they are going to import mRNA vaccines. I think they are sticking with their vaccines. And regarding vulnerable populations, I read that their elderly population is NOT well vaccinated. It was something like only 40% had a single dose of a multi-dose vaccine. It’s probably going to be pretty bad.

 

[afadeev]

Throughout the pandemic, China has had a “zero covid” policy[....]Those extreme measures worked to keep the infection rates low, but what’s the end game?
[...]So what’s going to happen when the virus is finally unleashed on a huge population with probably low immunity?

That's the trouble - without vaccines that work (Chinese barely did against the original strain and not at all against recent ones), there is no exit strategy.
Wester countries used masking and social distancing to buy time to develop vaccines and scale up the medical infrastructure to handle Covid patients.
Chinese used lockdowns, and have continued to use them ... just because they can. Until very recently, when their population started rebelling. In the interim, they've made zero measurable progress updating Covid vaccines.
Chinese vaccines (8 are officially approved, but 2 are most distributed: CoronaVac and SinoPharm) were ~50% effective against the original Wuhan strain of the virus. Even multiple doses of these Chinese vaccines are ineffective against omicron:

Zero COVID Won’t Work. Here’s the Strategy China Needs to Embrace.

Their shots just aren’t as good as mRNA vaccines.

slate.com

And now that they no longer can maintain "zero Covid" policies, they will open up their unvaccinated population of ~1.3B (or whatever the true # is) to that latest and most virulent strains of Covid. In the winter. Right on time for the optimum virus-spread-friendly time of the year.

The outcome is highly predictable and unfortunate.
In another month or two, with hospitals and morgues overflowing again (privately, public data will be suppressed), China will go RIGHT BACK into lock-downs. Wash, rinse, repeat.

If your company depends on critical Chinese-mainland based supply sources (I'm looking at you, Apple and Tesla!) - good luck (and let us know, so that we can short your stock)!

China does not have good, effective vaccines, and for some reason, they won’t buy good vaccines from countries that have them.

In my opinion, the slow vaccination rate in China is inexplicable. It's NOT a cost issue. They can afford it. Maybe it's a national pride issue, preferring their homegrown vaccines over others, but even so, they could have gotten everyone vaccinated by now with their local vaccines which do work, albeit not as well as ours (takes more shots to give similar immunity).

Chinese vaccination rate is actually very high, but their vaccines are ineffective against omicron and the more recent Covid strains.
Buying "evil capitalist" vaccines will be a public admission of the CCP failure to protect its citizens.
For a dictatorship that prides itself on being "better than chaotic Democracies", that is simply a politically intolerable outcome.

The could steal ours and replicate it.

They've tried, but evidently failed to replicate mRNA vaccine manufacturing process.
China even approached Moderna asking to reveal its mRNA vaccine manufacturing technology. Understandably, Moderna refused, but offered to sell their vaccines instead. China refused.
China still does not allow the use of mRNA vaccines developed in the West:

China's refusal to use Western COVID-19 vaccines is making its protest problems even worse

China says it's accelerating vaccine efforts as protesters criticize its 'zero-COVID' rules, but it still won't use vaccines from Western countries.

www.businessinsider.com

Covid lock-downs is one of many MAJOR ways in which China is truly and royally f@#ked.
It was fashionable as of late to fear China and treat it as a near-peer economic and military power relative to the US.
Give it another 6-18 months for that myth to fully implode....

a

 

[afadeev]

 

[Marc_G]

Well, to some extent, asked and answered:

Covid cases explode in Beijing leaving city streets empty and daily life disrupted | CNN

Empty streets, deserted shopping centers, and residents staying away from one another are the new normal in Beijing -- but not because the city, like many Chinese ones before it, is under a "zero-Covid" lockdown.

www.cnn.com

 

[techrat]

Well, to some extent, asked and answered:

I was just about to post that, you beat me to it.

 

[NateB]

Doesn't that seem fast for the incubation period and spread with the zero covid policy ending less than a week ago?

 

[afadeev]

I've been saying for years, that we need to stop buying stuff made in China. All the cheap stuff they make and sell is the fuel for their military expansion. And having all our eggs in one Chinese's basket is why we are having supply chain issues. But to bring jobs back to US is going to take Government incentives.

To bring a meaningful amount of manufacturing back to the US, one would need to re-introduce a wider disparity of incomes / salaries within manufacturing (and agro, and other) sectors.
You simply can't manufacture competitively priced consumer goods at $20-30/hour. A fraction of high-end goods with fat margins can be manufactured at those labor rates, but that bulk will never succeed without $10-15/hour labor market.

And since the American population will NEVER voluntarily accept a reduction in standard of living for the sake of brining back manufacturing ... the only practical alternative is importing lower-cost labor.
But the current political environment is virulently opposed to streamlining and legalizing immigration. And the bulk of that opposition comes from those very same low-income population groups.

[minor tangent] I find it really frustrating when I see people saying that we all need to stop buying from China while also saying that they shop at Wal-Mart. If you think it's important, then do it. Wal-Mart and their buying strategies are a major reason why American jobs were outsourced to China. So don't support them.

Oh, yes, hypocrisy is strong with us.
If you frequent Walmart (and I do), you will notice that the typical cross-section of the population that shops there is roughly exactly the folks who rave against immigration and in favor of higher minimum wages and "bring back jobs to the US".

You just can't have it both ways.
Unless, you are an opportunistic politician (aka Populist).

Me, I start with buying socks from American factories. Yes, they cost 5 times as much. They also are better and last 10 times as long.

Thanks for a perfect example of what it would take to "buy American". This works in some cases, but not in too many.
Would anyone here really accept paying 5-10x for your next iPhone?
5-10x your next computer/laptop?
5-10x your next couch/bed?

I didn't think so.
5-10x for small tickets items (socks, shirts, knives, artisan gear) is definitely easier, but globally immaterial.

a

P.S.: This is distinctly off-topic for this tread. If someone wants to dig deeper into the subject, lets kick-off a new one.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Well, to some extent, asked and answered:

Covid cases explode in Beijing leaving city streets empty and daily life disrupted | CNN

Empty streets, deserted shopping centers, and residents staying away from one another are the new normal in Beijing -- but not because the city, like many Chinese ones before it, is under a "zero-Covid" lockdown.

www.cnn.com

Sounds like it’s starting. That didn’t take long!

One thing that might help mitigate the severity of the coming waves and spikes in infections is that the Chinese population might be a lot better at voluntarily following safety precautions. In Beijing it sounds like the streets are empty because people are voluntarily staying home, not because of government lockdowns. That probably won’t stop what’s coming forever, but it might slow things down a bit.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I saw on a television news show last night that Chinese people are panic-buying canned peaches because of some belief that they are a cure for covid. At least it’s not endangered species‘ testicles or something.

And peaches are better than ivermectin, because ivermectin can kill The Worm that lives in your bowels, and it’s actually The Worm that protects you. Kill The Worm, and you die!

 

[overklock]

Here, it was a combination of good vaccines and natural immunity for those who didn’t get vaccines. It was immunity from whichever source that finally tamed the big, uncontrolled surges. China doesn’t have that. They have less-effective vaccines, and little natural immunity. So I think it’s likely they will have the massive surges and high death rates thst most countries have gotten past at this point.

With BA.5, large death rates and hospitalizations are unlikely, even amongst the unvaccinated. Symptoms between the unvaccinated and vaccinated at this point are relatively similar, with the unvaccinated coming down with a fever, and those who are vaccinated not. This lines up with BA.4 and BA.5 being primarily upper respiratory viruses, rather than lower respiratory viruses. Although this does not hold true for my mother and sister, both vaccinated, who came down with pretty terrible cases and 102 fevers.

These studies are of course based on user reported data, and do not account for prior infections AFAIK.

My take, although baseless, is that China knows something about this virus we don't. I don't think they'd be willing to crash their economy otherwise. It is shown that each subsequent infection, symptoms or not, increases your risk of stroke and heart attacks.

Source: UC Davis Health, CNBC Health

 

[afadeev]

With BA.5, large death rates and hospitalizations are unlikely, even amongst the unvaccinated.

Sorry, but I don't see any data or reports (among sources you citied, or those that I could easily find) that would support the suggestion that:

• BA.5 (aka Omicron) is the predominant strain in China
• BA.5 is benign, or as you put it "large death rates and hospitalizations are unlikely"

Per YaleMedicine siting CDC:

CDC is currently focused on Omicron and it’s subvariants as a variants of concern in the U.S. That includes B.1.1.529, BA.1, BA.1.1., BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5. The classification is given to variants that show increased transmissibility, could cause more severe disease, may be resistant to antibodies from previous infections or vaccination, and/or show an ability to evade diagnostic detection.​

Omicron, Delta, Alpha, and More: What To Know About the Coronavirus Variants

New variants are an expected part of the evolution of viruses, and that includes SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Yale Medicine provides some background on key variants that have surfaced during the course of the pandemic.

www.yalemedicine.org

Either way, what matters is what's going down in China. And detailed reports on that appear to be hard to come by.

My take, although baseless, is that China knows something about this virus we don't. I don't think they'd be willing to crash their economy otherwise. It is shown that each subsequent infection, symptoms or not, increases your risk of stroke and heart attacks.

I'm not sure where you are going with that theory, so consider elaborating.
Chine's response is not too mysterious, and is 100% driven by political considerations. With zero regard for the wellbeing of the population.
CCP has one, and only one, viable tool in Covid fighting arsenal - social distancing and lock-downs. That is because they've failed to develop effective vaccines internally, and are unwilling to procure them from abroad.

China also has a large and not very healthy aging population (~120M people over 65), and societal reverence towards the elderly.
You introduce a shock that produces a significant death tall among that population (on top of the banking, the real estate, and the lock down crises), and the leaders in charge may get keeled over into a very sudden and very unhappy ending.

Demographics of China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[overklock]

BA.5 (aka Omicron) is the predominant strain in China

Good point, I don't know this, your guess is as good as mine.

BA.5 is benign, or as you put it "large death rates and hospitalizations are unlikely"

Never said it was benign. It certainly has it's risks and dangers. But BA.5 seems to be primarily an upper respiratory infection, making it less deadly by definition. Shortness of breath really isn't seen in those who are vaccinated or unvaccinated.

That being said, it STILL can cause renal failure and vascular disease. And as you mentioned, we don't know what the variant currently circulating in China is.

I have no real dog in this race by the way. Speaking from a strictly anecdotal perspective, I have seen BA.4 and 5 (presumably) infections hit both my unvaccinated (no prior infection) family members as well as the vaccinated, and symptoms were pretty much the same across the board, regardless of age. Yes, I know this isn't hard data.

I'm not sure where you are going with that theory, so consider elaborating.

Again, my assumptions are baseless, China's government isn't exactly open. But if I had to take a swing at it, China has known for a while that the virus increases your chance of stroke and heart attack after every infection. Their youngest generation already doesn't want to work, their older generation is increasing in size. A massive amount of infections could cause a population collapse, now or down the line.

Your point about them being unwilling to purchase vaccines from abroad is a great point. Again, I'm just wondering why they're willing to crash their economy instead of just biting the bullet and getting better vaccines. Pride? Of course we all now know that our vaccines do not prevent the spread of the virus, so I don't think it's that.

Additionally, the lockdowns are more than likely a reason to quash any kind of growing resentment that the people of China currently have for their government. It's easier to control people with fear.

These look more like internment camps than treatment/quarantine centers

China also has a large and not very healthy aging population (~120M people over 65), and societal reverence towards the elderly.
You introduce an event that produces a significant death tall among that population, and the leaders in charge may experience and very sudden and very unhappy ending.

This is certainly an issue that could negatively affect the outcome.

Just throwing my two cents in. I'm always happy to be proven wrong.

 

[boatgeek]

Good point, I don't know this, your guess is as good as mine.



Never said it was benign. It certainly has it's risks and dangers. But BA.5 seems to be primarily an upper respiratory infection, making it less deadly by definition. Shortness of breath really isn't seen in those who are vaccinated or unvaccinated.

That being said, it STILL can cause renal failure and vascular disease. And as you mentioned, we don't know what the variant currently circulating in China is.

I have no real dog in this race by the way. Speaking from a strictly anecdotal perspective, I have seen BA.4 and 5 (presumably) infections hit both my unvaccinated (no prior infection) family members as well as the vaccinated, and symptoms were pretty much the same across the board, regardless of age. Yes, I know this isn't hard data.


Again, my assumptions are baseless, China's government isn't exactly open. But if I had to take a swing at it, China has known for a while that the virus increases your chance of stroke and heart attack after every infection. Their youngest generation already doesn't want to work, their older generation is increasing in size. A massive amount of infections could cause a population collapse, now or down the line.

Your point about them being unwilling to purchase vaccines from abroad is a great point. Again, I'm just wondering why they're willing to crash their economy instead of just biting the bullet and getting better vaccines. Pride?

Additionally, the lockdowns are more than likely a reason to quash any kind of growing resentment that the people of China currently have for their government. It's easier to control people with fear.

These look more like internment camps than treatment/quarantine centers



This is certainly an issue that could negatively affect the outcome.

This data set definitely bears out BA.5 being less likely to kill someone than COVID Classic or Delta. Later omicron variants kill about 5% of hospitalized patients, while Delta and earlier was killing 10-15%. I don't have parallel stats for how many positive cases are hospitalized, but anecdotal evidence says that later Omicrons are causing fewer hospitalizations. I have seen that it's harder to get good data now because so many cases are diagnosed with home tests and aren't necessarily reported to the state health authorities. Of course, it's also possible that if hospitals in China are overwhelmed by cases, patients will have worse outcomes on average.

Taking your comments about stroke and heart attack at face value, it's possible that the Chinese government is managing the optics. In the Classic and Delta stages, people were dying on ventilators, so it was harder to deny that they were dying of COVID. Some people did anyway, but that's another story. If the elderly are dying of stroke and heart attack a month after their case of COVID, it's much harder to pin the death on COVID itself and not random chance. That makes it politically more feasible to just let COVID rip--many of the resulting deaths won't be explicitly linked to the disease. I don't know if that's the way the Chinese government is thinking about the issue, just that it's a possibility.

 

[Marc_G]

One thing to be cautious about in comparing later variants to earlier ones, in terms of their death rate etc., is that in the US and most western countries, there are relatively few people in the cohort of "unvaccinated AND not previously infected." Keep in mind that many people may not know they were infected due to light or asymptomatic cases.

So, we really don't know that newer variants are less risky to unvaxxed folks than the prior variants, because the population of unvaccinated and self-reported uninfected previously patients includes many people that DID have an infection, they just didn't know it.

 

[overklock]

One thing to be cautious about in comparing later variants to earlier ones, in terms of their death rate etc., is that in the US and most western countries, there are relatively few people in the cohor of "unvaccinated AND not previously infected." Keep in mind that many people may not know they were infected due to light or asymptomatic cases.

So, we really don't know that newer variants are less risky to unvaxxed folks than the prior variants, because the population of unvaccinated and self-reported uninfected previously patients includes many people that DID have an infection, they just didn't know it.

There really are too many variables at play here for any one person to accurately predict what is/will happen, which is why so many people skew towards anecdotal evidence (myself included). Combine that with the general distrust and resentment that has grown towards governing/medical bodies and I'm surprised we're along as far as we are. My own aunt who worked for the CDC, now no longer trusts the CDC. Crazy world.

 

[overklock]

Very interesting video. Be sure to watch all the way through.

 

[afadeev]

Very interesting video. Be sure to watch all the way through.

I'm not sure if that channel is for real, someone's college dorm project, a comedy show, or a parody?

Somewhere between aggressive opinion bucket dumping and 3rd of 4th pitch for "Over Globes - Over Globes are great, I love this technology. It spins".... I just couldn't watch it any more and broke down laughing...

How does it end?

 

[overklock]

I'm not sure if that channel is for real, someone's college dorm project, a comedy show, or a parody?

Somewhere between aggressive opinion bucket dumping and 3rd of 4th pitch for "Over Globes - Over Globes are great, I love this technology. It spins".... I just couldn't watch it any more and broke down laughing...

How does it end?

Yeah I'm not entirely sure on the source, just thought it was interesting.

 

[afadeev]

Yeah I'm not entirely sure on the source, just thought it was interesting.

Fair enough.

In similar vain - ran into a show by an American who has just returned home after 10 years in China.
He has a segment on just what we are talking about (also has a stupid imbedded commercial, this one for a wallet).