Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[Steve Shannon]

Absolute fact. They also cannot avoid a total collapse in oil and gas production that will take a decade AFTER regime change and stability is returned to restore. And that is WITH western help.
But dang it, and listen to me this time....

We MUST finish Russia OFF, for good, this time. Not another dime of foreign investment goes into a defeated Russia until she surrenders with accountability to OUR satisfaction ALL nuclear weapons, delivery systems, manufacturing systems, etc.)

Modern day in comfort without nukes, or stone age, with non-deliverable nukes.

Choose.

That's putin (pun intended) the cart far out ahead of the horse.
Russia will not surrender. They have no need to surrender. They are not being attacked.
At best, there will be a negotiated cease-fire. If Russia said today that they were exiting Ukraine, within a year many of the sanctions would be lifted. There might be some noise made about reparations.

Russia will only surrender if they are engaged in a shooting war that enters Russia. Hopefully that won't happen, but if it does, then we have to hit them with overwhelming force and then everything you said makes sense.

 

[cautery]

That's putin (pun intended) the cart far out ahead of the horse.
Russia will not surrender. They have no need to surrender. They are not being attacked.
At best, there will be a negotiated cease-fire. If Russia said today that they were exiting Ukraine, within a year many of the sanctions would be lifted. There might be some noise made about reparations.

Russia will only surrender if they are engaged in a shooting war that enters Russia. Hopefully that won't happen, but if it does, then we have to hit them with overwhelming force and then everything you said makes sense.

It would have saved us TRILLIONS had we finished them in the 90s.

No one listened.

If we don't finish them now, my sons will be saying.... "We should have finished them in the 2020s. It has cost us quadrillions of dollars more because we didn't."

 

[CalebJ]

You don't comprehend the ethical and geopolitical concerns of 'finishing Rusia off'?

 

[Funkworks]

I don't quite understand what it means to "finish" a country off. Like, what's a historical example of this. What would happen next.

 

[Steve Shannon]

It would have saved us TRILLIONS had we finished them in the 90s.

No one listened.

If we don't finish them now, my sons will be saying.... "We should have finished them in the 2020s. It has cost us quadrillions of dollars more because we didn't."

Nobody listened because it would have been an immoral choice.

 

[Tyeeking]

It would have saved us TRILLIONS had we finished them in the 90s.

No one listened.

If we don't finish them now, my sons will be saying.... "We should have finished them in the 2020s. It has cost us quadrillions of dollars more because we didn't."

Who is this “we” that you keep referencing? Are you suggesting that the US send men and women into direct combat against Russia to finish them off or do you just want Ukrainians to die in an invasion of Russia to finish them off?

 

[cautery]

You don't comprehend the ethical and geopolitical concerns of 'finishing Rusia off'?

I've been a soldier all my adult life. I've been studying political science and geopolitics for over half a century. I know precisely the ethical and geopolitical concerns.

I don't quite understand what it means to "finish" a country off. Like, what's a historical example of this. What would happen next.

To do similarly to what they falsely claimed as an excuse for trying to extinguish Ukraine as a nation. Demilitarize them as a threat to their neighbors and the world at large.

Nobody listened because it would have been an immoral choice.

Explain to me how defeating an enemy to the extent that they are no longer a THREAT to your very existence is immoral?

Who is this “we” that you keep referencing? Are you suggesting that the US send men and women into direct combat against Russia to finish them off or do you just want Ukrainians to die in an invasion of Russia to finish them off?

Currently, we have many millions of Ukranians perfectly willing to kill all the Russians they can with the "bullets" they have. I suggest we continue to allow Ukrainians to depopulate the Russian empire until the RUSSIAN people finish the tyrants and oligarchs off FOR US (and the rest of the wannabe peaceful world).

IF/when the government becomes too unstable to reasonably protect/secure their nuclear weapons, we send in the forces we ALREADY have trained to secure the weapons and associated materials and machinery.... Take the weapons to secure disposal facilities and destroy the rest on site.

Overall, fewer people die and Russians become more free under my plan.
Whose plan is more moral?

No ones.... because no one else has much of a plan.... EXCEPT the Ukrainians.... which is to kill every Russian in Ukraine until they stop coming and the NON-dead Russians leave Ukraine.

THAT is how you fight a war.... OR you WILL fight them again.

NO WAR is humane. You destroy the enemy's will to fight and ability to be a threat.

 

[CalebJ]

This is fascinating, really. An exercise in nonsensical and unethical solutions to real world scenarios.

Moving along...

 

[cls]

As a Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon stock holder, I'm laughing all the way to the bank.

It would have saved us TRILLIONS had we finished them in the 90s.

 

[cautery]

This is fascinating, really. An exercise in nonsensical and unethical solutions to real world scenarios.

Moving along...

No no.... YOU opened the door. I'm not letting you off the hook by calling me unethical and nonsensical without you even being ASKED to back your play.

What is YOUR alternative plan? Detail how you would proceed and how your plan exceeds mine in its ethical standards.

 

[CalebJ]

Sorry, not feeding the troll attempt.

 

[cautery]

As a Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon stock holder, I'm laughing all the way to the bank.

As a non-stock holder of companies that profit off of death, I say you don't have a clue what I am talking about. This is not about personal gain.

 

[cautery]

Sorry, not feeding the troll attempt.

Not a troll at all.

You are apparently unwilling or incapable of backing your position.
You just want to hurl insults at those with whom you disagree.

I get it.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

Interesting story on how we are giving the Ukraine solders maintenance support on the howitzers we provided. These guys are pushing this equipment to the limit.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/polit...witzer-us-offers-help-line-to-ukraine-troops/

 

[cls]

As a non-stock holder of companies that profit off of death, I say you don't have a clue what I am talking about. Not about your personal gain.

Actually, I do not invest in those things, but I think you get the point: there was a lot of $ made in the cold war.

 

[jderimig]

Actually, I do not invest in those things, but I think you get the point: there was a lot of $ made in the cold war.

And a lot in this one.

 

[cwbullet]

Looks like we are gonna give them F16 that we are retiring.

 

[jderimig]

Looks like we are gonna give them F16 that we are retiring.

How will we limit their range to 120 miles?

 

[cautery]

Actually, I do not invest in those things, but I think you get the point: there was a lot of $ made in the cold war.

So, not laughing all the way to the bank....

Yes sir. Generally, private companies build better military equipment, faster, and almost always cheaper than if the arms were made in FEDGOV owned armories.

Lots of currency changes hands in every war. Not aware of any money in circulation anywhere in the world.

 

[boatgeek]

So, not laughing all the way to the bank....

Yes sir. Generally, private companies build better military equipment, faster, and almost always cheaper than if the arms were made in FEDGOV owned armories.

Lots of currency changes hands in every war. Not aware of any money in circulation anywhere in the world.

When was the last war when substantial amounts of arms were made by the federal government as opposed to private companies under contract? US Civil War?

 

[cautery]

How will we limit their range to 120 miles?

Not laughing at your remark, but at the picture in my head of an F-16 Falcon squawking a "turn-around" message to the pilot.... and then reducing power...

 

[cautery]

When was the last war when substantial amounts of arms were made by the federal government as opposed to private companies under contract? US Civil War?

Would not be surprised if that were the case. I would not definitively say without a good deal of research. There has always been a close relationship between arms manufacturers and the FEDGOV.

The concerning point to me in modern day.... today, is the vast reduction of the NUMBER of military manufacturers... A lot of consolidation in the last 20-30 years. Lots of reasons why.... mostly strategic concerns.

 

[jderimig]

Not laughing at your remark, but at the picture in my head of an F-16 Falcon squawking a "turn-around" message to the pilot.... and then reducing power...

"recalculating......"

 

[cautery]

"recalculating......"

"Your Google mapping license does not cover this geographical area. Switching to "dead reckoning" mode."

 

[cwbullet]

How will we limit their range to 120 miles?

I doubt we will. If we do, we are fools. You cannot place limits on war. See Vietnam if you want to know what that does.

 

[Peartree]

Actually, I do not invest in those things, but I think you get the point: there was a lot of $ made in the cold war.

Almost anyone with a pension, or who is invested in broad market mutual funds (ie. Index funds) is almost certainly invested in several companies that profit from war and violence.

 

[jderimig]

Almost anyone with a pension, or who is invested in broad market mutual funds (ie. Index funds) is almost certainly invested in several companies that profit from war and violence.

I would say people who invest in these companies profit from maintaining peace. (and maintaining the free flow of oil).

 

[WoShuGui]

Not holding my breath that this will actually include longer range missiles, but ATACMs would make a significant difference in this conflict.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-re...with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/
Edit: Article suggests these will be Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) with a range of 94 miles. Less range than ATACMs, but much cheaper at $40K versus $1M. CEP should be well under 26’ maybe 3’ with GPS, so accurate enough. Here is more detail on GLSDB…
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...-would-double-ukraines-precision-strike-range

 

[teepot]

Up until recently all but a couple of stocks were defense primes. Last February I sold all my stocks and bought defense stocks. Northrup, Lockheed, Raytheon etc. Did well until a couple of months ago. They had all gone flat line. As in no gains or overall loses. Sold everything but Generac and Tilray and converted to cash. I don't like how the market is going. We have 95% of our money with Ameriprise. We have a managed account. They have managed to loose $100K so far this year. I told our broker with them. It had better stop and start going the other way or we will be looking for someone else. I'm about ready to pull the plug on them and do it myself. I made money while they were loosing money.

Now on topic. I feel as though I'm watching a train wreak in slow motion. The longer this goes on the better it is for Putin. We need a flood of weapons going to Ukraine not a trickle. Tanks are good if they can get them there in a month. Longer ranged and more powerful missiles are needed now. I said earlier that I was afraid that the Russians would throw the Mobiks into the fire so the best troops can rest and that is what it looks like now. I hope the spring mud hurts them more than the Ukrainians. Besides donations to the cause I wish there was more I could do to help.

 

[PhilC]

Up until recently all but a couple of stocks were defense primes. Last February I sold all my stocks and bought defense stocks. Northrup, Lockheed, Raytheon etc. Did well until a couple of months ago. They had all gone flat line. As in no gains or overall loses. Sold everything but Generac and Tilray and converted to cash. I don't like how the market is going. We have 95% of our money with Ameriprise. We have a managed account. They have managed to loose $100K so far this year. I told our broker with them. It had better stop and start going the other way or we will be looking for someone else. I'm about ready to pull the plug on them and do it myself. I made money while they were loosing money.

Now on topic. I feel as though I'm watching a train wreak in slow motion. The longer this goes on the better it is for Putin. We need a flood of weapons going to Ukraine not a trickle. Tanks are good if they can get them there in a month. Longer ranged and more powerful missiles are needed now. I said earlier that I was afraid that the Russians would throw the Mobiks into the fire so the best troops can rest and that is what it looks like now. I hope the spring mud hurts them more than the Ukrainians. Besides donations to the cause I wish there was more I could do to help.

There's going to be a gap before the Ukranians can turn hardware into capability. It may well extend into the late spring when the ground is firm enough for Russian and Ukrainian armour. In the meantime I suspect that Ukraine will fight a series of holding battles, forcing Russia to make costly assaults for small amounts of land. I think this summer will be decisive.