- Dec 27, 2014
- Reaction score
I agree that it's more likely the Russians and that the loss of the dam is a long-term loss for Ukraine. However, just to play devil's advocate, it's possible that breaching the dam benefits Ukraine in the short term as well:If I was a betting man, my money would be on Russia. The Dnipro being more difficult to cross is much more advantageous to Russia than to Ukraine.
- There wasn't a lot of river crossing below the dam, though there was some. Once the lake drains, that will be possible again.
- Lowering the lake/river level above the dam may make it easier to cross the river up there
- Damage to the dam may cut off water supplies to Crimea
On balance, I don't think that those potential gains outweigh the long-term losses. Ukraine has appeared to play the long game in the conflict, so I still think it's less likely to be their doing.
I saw another commentator say that it looked like bad maintenance. I'm not sure I credit that--the Russians haven't had control of the dam for that long, so it would have had to be in pretty bad shape before the invasion to fail in now. I also haven't looked at any of the relevant video, so my opinion isn't super-informed.