Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[afadeev]

All the Russian smokers have been kicked out of the ammo warehouses, command centers, weapons labs, government buildings, etc. due to “smoking accidents”, so they all decided to go smoke on the strategically critical bridge. Lordy, I hope there wasn’t an “accident”!

... and Russian smokers seam to have found their way into Moscow's defense ministry building:

• Russia has denied reports of a fire at its Ministry of Defense building in central Moscow, according to state news agency TASS, after the agency cited emergency services saying that a blaze had broken out on the balcony.
• On video that showed smoke surrounding the building and a woman is heard saying: "The smell of burning is horrible."
• “The presence of a fire has not been confirmed, as no fire was detected by the fire brigade upon arrival. Neither is there any information about victims,” TASS quoted Moscow’s Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Fire? What fire?
It's not smoke, it's atmosphere expressing it's love for comrade Putin !
Roughly how Moscow reacted to the semi-Russian incursion into Belgorod area earlier this week.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Maybe Russians should switch to vapes or chew for their nicotine fixes. The smoking is out of hand!

 

[smstachwick]

... and Russian smokers seam to have found their way into Moscow's defense ministry building:
View attachment 582445

• Russia has denied reports of a fire at its Ministry of Defense building in central Moscow, according to state news agency TASS, after the agency cited emergency services saying that a blaze had broken out on the balcony.
• On video that showed smoke surrounding the building and a woman is heard saying: "The smell of burning is horrible."
• “The presence of a fire has not been confirmed, as no fire was detected by the fire brigade upon arrival. Neither is there any information about victims,” TASS quoted Moscow’s Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Fire? What fire?
It's not smoke, it's atmosphere expressing it's love for comrade Putin !
Roughly how Moscow reacted to the semi-Russian incursion into Belgorod area earlier this week.

Basically the Russian equivalent of a fire at the Pentagon. Sh*t is getting real.

I don’t suppose they found wreckage of a Boeing 757 at the site?

 

[teepot]

I'm curious to learn more about how Kinzal and Chinese hypersonic missiles are intended to work, but there is a dearth of detailed public records on that subject.
Do you have any sources on Kinzal flight profile that you could share?

From my understanding, the difference between classic basilic missiles (which can and do reach hypersonic speeds) and "new" hypersonic missiles is that the latter fly lower, inside the atmosphere, and use air to change trajectory in flight. Thus, they can fly on a less predictable and lower trajectory path, which is harder to detect and provides lower reaction time to intercept.

From that perspective, it makes little sense for Kinzal (or Chinese hypersonic glide missile) to slow down in the final phase of flight. Once accelerated to Mach 5-10, some kinetic energy dissipation will happen during maneuvering, but it would not make much sense to shed so much of it as to drop into sub-hypersonic flight speeds.

What is more likely is that Kinzal, just like the Iskander that it is based on, is a ballistic missile with limited course correction capability, that can reach hypersonic speeds. More easily so by Kinzal due Migs effectively providing the first stage of acceleration for the missile.
Chinese hypersonic glide vehicle HGV missile, on the other hand, is boosted by one of Chinese ballistic missiles to Mach 5-10 speeds, then glides through atmosphere at hypersonic speeds.
Unless, of course, Chinese are lying as much as the Russians!

Either way, it's very impressive that Patriot battery managed to intercept 6 out of 6 Kinzals that were fired at it!

View attachment 581937

Just info I have seen or read on the internet. If you want a good source for information try Aviation Week. An officer my wife worked for called it Aviation Leak. I subscribed for 20+ years. Very cutting edge information.

 

[afadeev]

Just info I have seen or read on the internet. If you want a good source for information try Aviation Week. An officer my wife worked for called it Aviation Leak. I subscribed for 20+ years. Very cutting edge information.

Found this on Patriot vs. Kinzhal:

• Kinzhal [...] appeared to be a straightforward, air-launched version of the ground-launched Iskander. That implied it was hypersonic and maneuverable, but not in the same way as a new class of hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles now being fielded or in development all over the world.
• Like the Iskander, the Kinzhal was assessed to be an aeroballistic missile. This meant it was launched on a ballistic trajectory. As it approached hypersonic speed during a terminal dive, it could use tail-mounted control fins to maneuver after re-entering the atmosphere. By contrast, a hypersonic glide vehicle or cruise missile travels at the same speed, but can change direction much earlier in its flightpath to make it even harder to shoot down.
• Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor could defeat a maneuvering hypersonic missile [...] analysis focused on defense against a hypersonic glide vehicle, but an intercept by a PAC-MSE against an aeroballistic missile in the terminal phase may be similar, except a Kinzhal may lack the same sensors to be able to be aware of an incoming threat and then maneuver to dodge it.
• Against an incoming missile at speeds below Mach 9, the PAC-3 MSE has the velocity to make a hit-to-kill intercept over a small region of defended territory.

The Weekly Debrief: Is Kinzhal Merely A Dagger Of The Mind? | Aviation Week Network

President Vladimir Putin described the Kinzhal as the “most important” of the six modern weapon systems he revealed in a Kremlin speech on March 1, 2018.

aviationweek.com

PAC-3 MSE Was In Testing At Time Of Kinzhal Shoot Down | Aviation Week Network

Lockheed Martin announced a week after the Kinzhal shoot down that Germany’s PAC-3 MSE/launcher combination remained in operational testing on May 4.

aviationweek.com

 

[afadeev]

Not to be outdone, Sweden is now offering Ukraine to train pilots on JAS39 Gripen planes.
Just not the JAS39's themselves. Yet.

Gripen flight training begins: Sweden agreed to instruct Ukrainian pilots - Technology Org

Sweden has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots to operate JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets. These aircraft have a range of advanced military features.

www.technology.org

Here is the list of 204 Gripen aircraft that were ever delivered to Sweden.

• 98 Gripens operative C/D-version aircraft.
• 32 Gripens disassembled or destroyed. JAS 39 D required two 39 A hulls to build.
• 28 Gripens leased to the Czech Republic and Hungary.
• 24 Gripens in hangar storage awaiting decommission.
• 12 Gripens sold to Thailand.
• 4 Gripens returned to SAAB to be used as test aircraft.
• 4 Gripens lost in accidents.
• 2 Gripens donated to Flygvapenmuseum in Sweden and Royal Thai Air Force Museum in Thailand.

Something tells me the subset of Czech inventory may be on the move...

 

[rocket_troy]

Apparently CNN is reporting that Lukashenko (Putin's Pit Bull on a 1 yard leash) is offering Nukes to anyone willing to join their 'war crimes central' union. How freak'n nuts is that for a headline! Putin needs more Pit Bulls and he's offering WMDs as tasty bones via his corrupt puppet Lukashenko. This is the craziest and scariest thing I've ever read.

TP

 

[teepot]

Lukashenco is in critical condition in a Moscow hospital. I guess Putin made him an offer he couldn't refuse. I bet the next ruler of Belarus will join the war. From what I've read or watched Ukraine is ready for an attack from Belarus.

 

[Peartree]

Lukashenco is in critical condition in a Moscow hospital. I guess Putin made him an offer he couldn't refuse. I bet the next ruler of Belarus will join the war. From what I've read or watched Ukraine is ready for an attack from Belarus.

Some time ago I had heard that so many Belarusians had joined Ukraine's military that they formed a "division." Their stated goal was to assist Ukraine in driving out the Russians and then returning to free their own country.

 

[teepot]

I just saw a video of a Russian TV propogandist saying that We {Russia} should attack Texas. Another one said attack Alaska. He said it is just across the strait. LMAO. Shouldn't take more than a Brigade. Another said scour it clean. Hilarious. And they called for the assassination of Lindsey Graham. I think. I have no more memory space and the new stuff just falls out.

 

[Sooner Boomer]

I just saw a video of a Russian TV propogandist saying that We {Russia} should attack Texas. Another one said attack Alaska. He said it is just across the strait. LMAO. Shouldn't take more than a Brigade. Another said scour it clean. Hilarious. And they called for the assassination of Lindsey Graham. I think. I have no more memory space and the new stuff just falls out.

I agree. Russia should attack Texas and try to invade. This would solve SO many problems!

 

[WoShuGui]

Elite district of Rublevka in Moscow attacked by drones. If this was Ukraine’s doing (they are wink-wink denying it), I sure hope they thought it through.

Ukraine war comes to Moscow as drones strike both capitals

Ukrainian drones struck wealthy districts of Moscow on Tuesday, Russia said in what one politician called the most dangerous attack since World War Two, while Kyiv was also hit by air for the third time in 24 hours.

www.reuters.com

Ukraine denies involvement in Moscow strike, predicts more attacks

A Ukrainian presidential aide denied Kyiv was directly involved in a drone attack on Moscow on Tuesday, but said Ukraine was enjoying watching the events and predicted an increase in such attacks.

www.reuters.com

 

[Antares JS]

I just saw a video of a Russian TV propogandist saying that We {Russia} should attack Texas.

I am genuinely interested in how that guy thinks any attacking force can get anywhere near Texas without being blown out of the sky and/or sent to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe he's not familiar with where Texas actually is.

 

[SolarYellow]

Think our talking idiots know anything about Russian geography?

 

[Antares JS]

Think our talking idiots know anything about Russian geography?

Okay, yeah, good point. Most of what I know about Russia's political subdivisions comes from Risk, Sabaton songs, and Chechnya being all over the news in the late 90's.

 

[afadeev]

Apparently CNN is reporting that Lukashenko (Putin's Pit Bull on a 1 yard leash) is offering Nukes to anyone willing to join their 'war crimes central' union. How freak'n nuts is that for a headline! Putin needs more Pit Bulls and he's offering WMDs as tasty bones via his corrupt puppet Lukashenko. This is the craziest and scariest thing I've ever read.

That's akin to a hustler offering to sell Brooklyn bridge to a sucker.

Russians may have gotten a blank check to station troops and weapons on Belarusian territory, possibly including tactical nukes, but they would NEVER trust Belarusians to operate nukes on their own. Or with any meaningful decisions in where other nukes might be deployed in the future.

Charmingly, Kazakhstan's president responded to Lukashenko's offer with: "I appreciate the joke."

 

[Sooner Boomer]

I am genuinely interested in how that guy thinks any attacking force can get anywhere near Texas without being blown out of the sky and/or sent to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe he's not familiar with where Texas actually is.

I don't think they know WHO Texas is...

 

[rocket_troy]

That's akin to a hustler offering to sell Brooklyn bridge to a sucker.

Russians may have gotten a blank check to station troops and weapons on Belarusian territory, possibly including tactical nukes, but they would NEVER trust Belarusians to operate nukes on their own. Or with any meaningful decisions in where other nukes might be deployed in the future.

Charmingly, Kazakhstan's president responded to Lukashenko's offer with: "I appreciate the joke."

I see it as an act of desperation from a man whose life is on the line, but I have to concede, the events and bluster from the past week don't make total sense.
From my understanding, Lukashenko doesn't report to "Russian xxxx", he reports to Putin directly.

TP

 

[boatgeek]

I am genuinely interested in how that guy thinks any attacking force can get anywhere near Texas without being blown out of the sky and/or sent to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe he's not familiar with where Texas actually is.

Not to mention Alaska. Sure, Diomede island is close enough to see from Russia. Then you'll go 650 air miles (or 1600 sea miles) to get to the nearest medium-sized city. And even then you're still in the middle of mostly nowhere. Even is the USAF and USN was completely absent, there are a few hundred commercial fishing boats who would be very willing to bring a Javelin or six on board to take pot shots at Russian navy ships. The Russians haven't played nice with American fishing boats in our waters, and I'm sure a bunch would be happy to return the favor. A javelin might not sink the ship, but it would make a hash of its superstructure and ability to fight.

Think our talking idiots know anything about Russian geography?

Tough but fair.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Russia is not going to invade the US. That’s absurd and not even worth thinking about. Russia has enough to worry about already with their botched invasion of Ukraine that I think new invasions are pretty unlikely at this point, especially invasions of US or NATO territory.

 

[Antares JS]

Russia is not going to invade the US. That’s absurd and not even worth thinking about. Russia has enough to worry about already with their botched invasion of Ukraine that I think new invasions are pretty unlikely at this point, especially invasions of US or NATO territory.

I know, but it's hilarious that some of these loons want to try, and apparently also think it could lead to any positive outcome for them.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I know, but it's hilarious that some of these loons want to try, and apparently also think it could lead to any positive outcome for them.

Yeah, it is pretty funny in a way. Before they try to invade Texas, they are going to need to scrape a lot of rust off a lot more T-55s and “recruit” a lot more prisoners.

 

[boatgeek]

Yeah, it is pretty funny in a way. Before they try to invade Texas, they are going to need to scrape a lot of rust off a lot more T-55s and “recruit” a lot more prisoners.

At least for Texas, they have the advantage of a friendly island fairly close to the landing beach. It's sort of a reverse Bay of Pigs operation. Since the original went so very well.

 

[les]

Let's forget Texas as being unrealistic. But if Russia attacked Alaska, that would be an attack on a NATO country, right? Would that then provide the green light for our other NATO allies to attack?
Russia has done so well against just Ukraine. What would happen if USA responded on one front for Alaska while Germany, France, UK, Poland, et al attacked on the other front on the opposite side?

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Let's forget Texas as being unrealistic. But if Russia attacked Alaska, that would be an attack on a NATO country, right? Would that then provide the green light for our other NATO allies to attack?
Russia has done so well against just Ukraine. What would happen if USA responded on one front for Alaska while Germany, France, UK, Poland, et al attacked on the other front on the opposite side?

World War III. Not great. This is why it’s not going to happen.

 

[boatgeek]

Let's forget Texas as being unrealistic. But if Russia attacked Alaska, that would be an attack on a NATO country, right? Would that then provide the green light for our other NATO allies to attack?
Russia has done so well against just Ukraine. What would happen if USA responded on one front for Alaska while Germany, France, UK, Poland, et al attacked on the other front on the opposite side?

Yes, if Russia attacked Alaska, it would trigger a war between NATO and Russia. As @ThirstyBarbarian says, it's not going to happen. But let's go into the alternate universe where it does happen.

NATO would have a tough choice--how hard to hit back. For starters, any Russian assets in or near Alaska would be attacked. Likewise, any Russian Navy inteh north Pacific woudl be at serious risk. The only real question is how many casualties we would face while destroying them. We would probably go after port facilities and air bases in eastern Russia as well.

In Europe, there's a couple of American armored divisions in Poland who would be just itching for a fight if Russia invaded US territory. Not to mention the USAF and other NATO air forces who would also love to turn occupied Ukraine into a shooting gallery. How far to go after that is the question. There's a line somewhere between Ukraine and Moscow (and also between the Baltic states and Moscow/St. Petersburg). When NATO crosses that line, Putin starts lobbing nukes. Nobody really wants to cross that line with ground troops. Since we don't really know where that line is, I suspect that the ground troops wouldn't go very far down the road out of Ukraine/Poland/the Baltics.

 

[CalebJ]

World War III. Not great. This is why it’s not going to happen.

Yep. That's why we let WOPR play tic tac toe.

 

[Art Upton]

Let's forget Texas as being unrealistic. But if Russia attacked Alaska, that would be an attack on a NATO country, right? Would that then provide the green light for our other NATO allies to attack?
Russia has done so well against just Ukraine. What would happen if USA responded on one front for Alaska while Germany, France, UK, Poland, et al attacked on the other front on the opposite side?

Nukes in Space would be the result all over coming down hypersonic, as all ICBMs are on re-entry...

 

[kuririn]

Reading reports that France has sent 40 or more Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine.
These may be surplus jets from the UAE.

 

[rocket_troy]

Russia is not going to invade the US. That’s absurd and not even worth thinking about. Russia has enough to worry about already with their botched invasion of Ukraine that I think new invasions are pretty unlikely at this point, especially invasions of US or NATO territory.

Indeed, although I was anticipating a witty vodka line from Thirsty... but

TP