Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[Steve Shannon]

I don't think the issue is that the United States isn't impartial. We are publicly helping Ukraine take a stand. I think that the issue is that the Chinese are attempting to draw a moral equivalence between a war of defense and a war of aggression, implying that the aggressor should be given legitimacy with a seat at a bargaining table while they still hold stolen territory. This is obviously a favorable precedent for them to set when they have aspirations to forcibly conquer their neighbor across the strait.

The US sees these ambitions (how could it not?) and isn't falling for it. Neutrality isn't really a morally justifiable option when confronted with wartime genocide, and our leadership recognizes this.

I don't know if Russia will ever back down. Forcing them back to square 1 and retaking all the conquered territory (including Crimea and Donbas) may effectively force them to. Providing training and equipment to Moldova and Georgia may provide additional pressure. But if not, Ukraine will need the means to secure it borders with its hostile neighbor.

War profiteering won't be much of an issue in this war, I don't think. Most of the equipment going there was previous-generation stuff that was slated for replacement anyway.

Regarding the blood loss...Russia can stop this at any time by withdrawing. There was no military necessity to this invasion and there still isn't. They can send their guys home and blunt the damage to their people and their state. At this time, they're only digging themselves a bigger hole and Ukraine is only getting stronger. I don't see them winning.

Excellent post.

 

[cbwho]

But they both have lost provinces that they earnestly want back. Not a good combination for the rest of the free world.

Please be careful about repeating communist lies.
The Chinese Communists never lost Taiwan. It was the nationalists that lost the mainland.

Taiwan has never belonged to what is the new nation of Communist China.

 

[Peartree]

I don't know if Russia will ever back down. Forcing them back to square 1 and retaking all the conquered territory (including Crimea and Donbas) may effectively force them to. Providing training and equipment to Moldova and Georgia may provide additional pressure. But if not, Ukraine will need the means to secure it borders with its hostile neighbor.

War profiteering won't be much of an issue in this war, I don't think. Most of the equipment going there was previous-generation stuff that was slated for replacement anyway.

One of the commentators that I follow was actually showing how Ukraine could cross the border, take Russian territory, and attack airfields and staging areas being used to attack Ukraine. That's the first time I've seen them seriously discuss this as a viable option, though he noted that one reason that it has become more of a serious option is because their allies will not provide long range weapons capable of reaching those targets otherwise.

As for profiteering, don't be naive. Someone still profits regardless of right/wrong/good/evil. This is an excellent opportunity for NATO nations to "rotate stock," I well remember eating 1944 canned C-rations while in the Army in the 1990's and watching our battleships fire rounds produced for the war effort against Hitler. Giving away "previous-generation stuff" simply justifies replacing old stock with new stock without arguing with Congress for the money to do it. Someone still makes the new stock, someone still sells it, and someone still profits from its sale. Those special interests find war to be good for business. Outside of replacement, you can bet that the defense budgets of nearly every European nation have, or soon will, see a big increase in spending, and all those Euros (and Pounds) will be go in the pockets of those same corporations. As previously noted, war is good for business.

 

[Greg Furtman]

As for profiteering, don't be naive. Someone still profits regardless of right/wrong/good/evil. This is an excellent opportunity for NATO nations to "rotate stock," I well remember eating 1944 canned C-rations while in the Army in the 1990's and watching our battleships fire rounds produced for the war effort against Hitler. Giving away "previous-generation stuff" simply justifies replacing old stock with new stock without arguing with Congress for the money to do it. Someone still makes the new stock, someone still sells it, and someone still profits from its sale. Those special interests find war to be good for business. Outside of replacement, you can bet that the defense budgets of nearly every European nation have, or soon will, see a big increase in spending, and all those Euros (and Pounds) will be go in the pockets of those same corporations. As previously noted, war is good for business.

Yes, unfortunately war is good for business.

 

[jderimig]

What's wrong with someone profiting from providing a quality product to meet a demand?

 

[Antares JS]

What's wrong with someone profiting from providing a quality product to meet a demand?

Nothing is wrong with it per se, but as @Greg Furtman points out, resources spent on supporting a war are resources not used for something more constructive. War has a lot of opportunity cost as well as material and human cost.

 

[Bill S]

Nothing is wrong with it per se, but as @Greg Furtman points out, resources spent on supporting a war are resources not used for something more constructive. War has a lot of opportunity cost as well as material and human cost.

It does. It also spurs technological developments, many of which have useful civilian spinoffs.

 

[techrat]

Yes, unfortunately war is good for business.

Yes, however.... Ukraine has suffered, essentially, trillions of dollars of losses in infrastructure. Hospitals, residences, railroads, electrical. Even if Russia was to "win", what do they get for their effort? A country where mostly everyone is either dead of has left as refugees, and land that has been battered to rubble. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the money to "repair" what's been left behind afterwards.

It's good for business, only for those that sit comfortably behind the lines, sipping wine and smoking cigars while their brothers die in the mud.

Russia will be terribly weak after this struggle. So weak in fact, they may have to fall back onto nuclear weapons because that's all they have left. They are running out of everything, and I doubt China can supply them indefinitely when they have their own desires of conquest that they need to build up for. But worst of all, to actually hold ground, you need people, and that's one resource China cannot supply, and Russia is running short of that as well.

Unfortunately, war may not be good for business once longer-range missiles start flying. You can't spend all that money you made building weapons if you are dead.

 

[Peartree]

Yes, however.... Ukraine has suffered, essentially, trillions of dollars of losses in infrastructure. Hospitals, residences, railroads, electrical. Even if Russia was to "win", what do they get for their effort? A country where mostly everyone is either dead of has left as refugees, and land that has been battered to rubble. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the money to "repair" what's been left behind afterwards.

It's good for business, only for those that sit comfortably behind the lines, sipping wine and smoking cigars while their brothers die in the mud.

Russia will be terribly weak after this struggle. So weak in fact, they may have to fall back onto nuclear weapons because that's all they have left. They are running out of everything, and I doubt China can supply them indefinitely when they have their own desires of conquest that they need to build up for. But worst of all, to actually hold ground, you need people, and that's one resource China cannot supply, and Russia is running short of that as well.

Unfortunately, war may not be good for business once longer-range missiles start flying. You can't spend all that money you made building weapons if you are dead.

That was kind of the point everyone was making, I think.

 

[Matt_The_RocketMan]

I have a military history question. When was the last time a country successfully initiated a war by invading another country, took it over, and successfully annexed it or maintained long-term control?

I don’t think there are many examples for more than 100 years. You would have to go back to the colonial empires, right? I know that WWII ended with some countries in control of others and some borders redrawn, but I think that had more to do with the fallout of a global conflict, and I don’t think the aggressor nations that initiated the war succeeded in obtaining and maintaining control of any other nations.

I’m curious if there are any examples similar to what Russia is attempting in Ukraine.

The Western Sahara conflict is an ongoing conflict between the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic/Polisario Front and the Kingdom of Morocco. The conflict originated from an insurgency by the Polisario Front against Spanish colonial forces from 1973 to 1975 and the subsequent Western Sahara War against Morocco between 1975 and 1991. Today the conflict is dominated by unarmed civil campaigns of the Polisario Front and their self-proclaimed SADR state to gain fully recognized independence for Western Sahara.

Western Sahara conflict - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[afadeev]

Yes, however.... Ukraine has suffered, essentially, trillions of dollars of losses in infrastructure. Hospitals, residences, railroads, electrical.

Per WorldBank, the estimated cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $411B.

Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment

A new joint assessment released by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, estimates that the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has grown to US$411 billion (equivalent of €383 billion).

www.worldbank.org

Even if Russia was to "win", what do they get for their effort? A country where mostly everyone is either dead of has left as refugees, and land that has been battered to rubble.

Putin's desire to invade Ukraine was never limited by a business case of taking over Ukrainian territory alone. Has has publicly stated far grander ambitions, and Ukraine is just as stepping along the way. The conditions in which he leaves it is of minor importance to Putin.
This has been covered ad-infimum at the start of this thread.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the money to "repair" what's been left behind afterwards.

That's definitely not true.
If Ukrainians had built it once, I'm pretty sure they can build it again. Likely to a better standard this time around.
Not to mention the ~$350B of frozen Russian funds that will go a long way towards reconstruction.

Russia will be terribly weak after this struggle. So weak in fact, they may have to fall back onto nuclear weapons because that's all they have left. They are running out of everything, and I doubt China can supply them indefinitely when they have their own desires of conquest that they need to build up for. But worst of all, to actually hold ground, you need people, and that's one resource China cannot supply, and Russia is running short of that as well.
Unfortunately, war may not be good for business once longer-range missiles start flying. You can't spend all that money you made building weapons if you are dead.

Long-range missiles have been flying since day 1 of Russian invasion.
Ukrainians clearly know what they are fighting for, and are not deterred by Russians missiles.

Are you?

 

[smstachwick]

Leopards and Challenger 2s are arriving in Ukraine with trained crews.

Ukraine war: Germany sends much-awaited Leopard tanks

The first 18 of the cutting-edge tanks are sent, amid reports UK Challenger 2s have also arrived.

www.bbc.com

 

[afadeev]

Leopards and Challenger 2s are arriving in Ukraine with trained crews.

Meanwhile, in mother Russia, if your kid draws anything anti-war or pro-Ukraine in school:

1. Teachers will call police.
2. You loose custody of your kid, and the child gets shipped off to an orphanage.
3. You go to jail for 2 years, for discrediting the army.

Nice place.
Nice people.
I kid you not:

Russian whose daughter drew anti-war picture flees jail term

Alexei Moskalev was investigated after his daughter drew an anti-war picture at school.

www.bbc.com

a

 

[smstachwick]

Meanwhile, in mother Russia, if your kid draws anything anti-war or pro-Ukraine in school:

1. Teachers will call police.
2. You loose custody of your kid, the the child gets shipped off to an orphanage.
3. You go to jail for 2 years, for discrediting the army.

Nice place.
Nice people.
I kid you not:

Russian whose daughter drew anti-war picture flees jail term

Alexei Moskalev was investigated after his daughter drew an anti-war picture at school.

www.bbc.com

a

They must be feeling the pressure to keep civilian morale up.

 

[Peartree]

They must be feeling the pressure to keep civilian morale up.

Like the sign we had up in our office years ago, "The floggings will continue until morale improves."

 

[boatgeek]

An interesting article about why Russia is using precision weapons on electrical substations rather than troops: they just don't have the satellites. Bizarrely for a nation with a purportedly modern military, they have a grand total of 2 optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit. They get fresh intel once every two weeks if the weather is good. They literally don't know where Ukraine's troops are unless they can be seen. Ukraine gets fresh satellite intel at least once a day in good weather. Presumably, Russia can't access the large commercial satellite imagery market either.

Russia Has Unleashed a ‘Campaign of Missile Terror’ Due to Failing Satellites

Where are Moscow’s eyes in the skies?

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[Greg Furtman]

Turkey voted to have Finland join NATO.

The Latest: War in Ukraine: Finland Clears Last Hurdle to Join NATO, Reshaping Balance of Power

Turkey’s Parliament approved Finland’s bid to join NATO, its final hurdle to membership in the military alliance. Here is what we’re covering:

www.nytimes.com

 

[Greg Furtman]

This is pretty good article.

Agile Ukraine, Lumbering Russia

The promise and limits of military adaptation.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[Peartree]

Turkey voted to have Finland join NATO.

The Latest: War in Ukraine: Finland Clears Last Hurdle to Join NATO, Reshaping Balance of Power

Turkey’s Parliament approved Finland’s bid to join NATO, its final hurdle to membership in the military alliance. Here is what we’re covering:

www.nytimes.com

That's a big deal considering the position Turkey was taking a year ago and the relatively close ties they've has with Russia.

But what's the deal with Finland moving forward but Sweden is still waiting?

 

[PhilC]

That's a big deal considering the position Turkey was taking a year ago and the relatively close ties they've has with Russia.

But what's the deal with Finland moving forward but Sweden is still waiting?

IIRC Turkey believes that some of the people being sheltered by Sweden are terrorists.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

IIRC Turkey believes that some of the people being sheltered by Sweden are terrorists.

That’s how I understand it too.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Turkey voted to have Finland join NATO.

The Latest: War in Ukraine: Finland Clears Last Hurdle to Join NATO, Reshaping Balance of Power

Turkey’s Parliament approved Finland’s bid to join NATO, its final hurdle to membership in the military alliance. Here is what we’re covering:

www.nytimes.com

Great news.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

This is pretty good article.

Agile Ukraine, Lumbering Russia

The promise and limits of military adaptation.

www.foreignaffairs.com

That’s a pretty good article. But I’m not sure I agree with the conclusion where it says the advantages Ukraine has in innovation, adaptability, and agility and its use of advanced western weapons might not be enough to enable it to win decisively, and maybe there’s no such thing as a decisive victory in a war like this. It says Russia can continue to fight badly for a long time.

I don’t think I believe that. I think there definitely is a limit to how long they can fight badly and continue to lose men, equipment, ammo, and supplies. Attrition will continue to eat away at their ability to fight.

And I also think it’s entirely possible for Ukraine to break through the static lines when their offensive finally gets underway, and when they do, they could make very significant gains like they did last year near Kyiv, in Kharkiv, and in Kherson.

 

[Funkworks]

UN security council president for a month:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65146557

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

UN security council president for a month:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65146557

In order to ensure our security and continuing stability, the United Nations will be reorganized into the first Galactic Empire, for a safe and secure society.

 

[Greg Furtman]

That's a big deal considering the position Turkey was taking a year ago and the relatively close ties they've has with Russia.

But what's the deal with Finland moving forward but Sweden is still waiting?

Remember the Kurds? The are a ethnic people in the southeast of Turkey, the northwest of Iraq, and the northwest of Iran. They have wanted their own country for over 100 years. (Remember that current countries were created by British and French Colonialism.) Turkey has persecuted them, banned their language, killed them as recently as 20 years ago. The Swedes, being a non-violent country, supported the Kurds in bringing up the question about human rights abuses.

Turkey has not forgot or forgiven. My hat's off for Sweden!

 

[PhilC]

Remember the Kurds? The are a ethnic people in the southeast of Turkey, the northwest of Iraq, and the northwest of Iran. They have wanted their own country for over 100 years. (Remember that current countries were created by British and French Colonialism.) Turkey has persecuted them, band their language, killed them as recently as 20 years ago. The Swedes, being a non-violent country, supported the Kurds in bringing up the question about human rights abuses.

Turkey has not forgot or forgiven. My hat's off for Sweden!

Drawing the post WW1 borders was one of the worst things my country ever did. We screwed up region from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean with consequences that are still relevant today. We didn't learn the lessons and screwed up India and parts of Africa after WW2.

 

[teepot]

Turkey is killing Kurds right now and have been for years. They know that the Kurds work with the US and bomb them anyway. They are doing genocide to the Kurds. Saddam gassed them in Iraq. Now back to Ukraine.

 

[cwbullet]

Turkey is killing Kurds right now and have been for years. They know that the Kurds work with the US and bomb them anyway. They are doing genocide to the Kurds. Saddam gassed them in Iraq. Now back to Ukraine.

Be careful using other conflicts to justify another or to justify not doing something in Ukraine. Just because we turn the cheek in one does not make it right to ignore genocide. It also might not justify the loss of American lives in every conflict.

 

[cwbullet]

Per WorldBank, the estimated cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $411B.

Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment

A new joint assessment released by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, estimates that the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has grown to US$411 billion (equivalent of €383 billion).

www.worldbank.org

Putin's desire to invade Ukraine was never limited by a business case of taking over Ukrainian territory alone. Has has publicly stated far grander ambitions, and Ukraine is just as stepping along the way. The conditions in which he leaves it is of minor importance to Putin.
This has been covered ad-infimum at the start of this thread.



That's definitely not true.
If Ukrainians had built it once, I'm pretty sure they can build it again. Likely to a better standard this time around.
Not to mention the ~$350B of frozen Russian funds that will go a long way towards reconstruction.



Long-range missiles have been flying since day 1 of Russian invasion.
Ukrainians clearly know what they are fighting for, and are not deterred by Russians missiles.

Are you?

If you add the cost of rebuilding to the loss of lives and lost Russian military, the cost of this war quickly goes into the trillion mark.