Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[Dan Griffing]

Yup.

Air superiority helps also with a tanks service life.

With the spread of small armed drones, the definition of air superiority has changed.

Ukraine has destroyed most of the Russian Tanks without traditional aid superiority.

 

[Curtis Enlow]

There was a report on Sky News a a few days ago about Wagner Group tactics. Their claimed source was UK MoD.
Basically it said that they work in 8 man teams. 8 guys run forward with guns and shovels. When they start taking casualties they go to ground and dig scrapes (under fire - really?) and fire back. The next 8 man team then advances and does the same, ideally bypassing the first team. And so it goes on until either (a) everyone is killed or (b) they take the position.
If this is correct then its the dumbest infantry tactic I've ever heard. No suppressing fire, no calling in artillery, just charge forward and wait to be killed.

What I find interesting is that this was, essentially, the Soviet approach in WWII - a terrible war of attrition, throwing so many bodies at the defenders that they run out of ammunition and wear themselves out in the slaughter. Every weapon the Soviets had was simple, even crude but effective, though never expected to last much longer than the poorly trained and educated serfs that used them. In many major battles the Soviets wasted shocking numbers of soldiers, not so much because the German's were highly trained and disciplined in comparison (they were), but because Stalin didn't really didn't care how many died; no number was too high to achieve his goals and his generals feared him. And there were hundreds of thousands of peasants available to take the place of their dead comrades.
It seems that Putin is not only nostalgic for the borders of the Soviet Union, but also for the calculated, cold-blooded lack of concern for the millions that were laid down as a sacrificial bridge to Berlin. But this is not 1945 and Putin is not Stalin and the closest thing he has to Georgy Zhukov doesn't fear him. It's more like 1917 and Putin is like Nicholas Romanov. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia collapses from within.

 

[rocket_troy]

What I find interesting is that this was, essentially, the Soviet approach in WWII - a terrible war of attrition, throwing so many bodies at the defenders that they run out of ammunition and wear themselves out in the slaughter. Every weapon the Soviets had was simple, even crude but effective, though never expected to last much longer than the poorly trained and educated serfs that used them. In many major battles the Soviets wasted shocking numbers of soldiers, not so much because the German's were highly trained and disciplined in comparison (they were), but because Stalin didn't really didn't care how many died; no number was too high to achieve his goals and his generals feared him. And there were hundreds of thousands of peasants available to take the place of their dead comrades.
It seems that Putin is not only nostalgic for the borders of the Soviet Union, but also for the calculated, cold-blooded lack of concern for the millions that were laid down as a sacrificial bridge to Berlin. But this is not 1945 and Putin is not Stalin and the closest thing he has to Georgy Zhukov doesn't fear him. It's more like 1917 and Putin is like Nicholas Romanov. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia collapses from within.

We're yet to see a tyrant fall with the surveillance reach and thumb print that Putin or Xi or bin Salman has. I'm not holding my breath we will, but... we'll see.

TP

 

[Peartree]

We have them, its a tool for US military leaders use when appropriate. However it's days in the US Air Force
are most likely winding down.

That why, like helicopter gunships, A-10s should be transferred to the Army.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

What I find interesting is that this was, essentially, the Soviet approach in WWII - a terrible war of attrition, throwing so many bodies at the defenders that they run out of ammunition and wear themselves out in the slaughter. Every weapon the Soviets had was simple, even crude but effective, though never expected to last much longer than the poorly trained and educated serfs that used them. In many major battles the Soviets wasted shocking numbers of soldiers, not so much because the German's were highly trained and disciplined in comparison (they were), but because Stalin didn't really didn't care how many died; no number was too high to achieve his goals and his generals feared him. And there were hundreds of thousands of peasants available to take the place of their dead comrades.
It seems that Putin is not only nostalgic for the borders of the Soviet Union, but also for the calculated, cold-blooded lack of concern for the millions that were laid down as a sacrificial bridge to Berlin. But this is not 1945 and Putin is not Stalin and the closest thing he has to Georgy Zhukov doesn't fear him. It's more like 1917 and Putin is like Nicholas Romanov. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia collapses from within.

One difference between now and then is that Russia doesn’t really have a surplus population to waste in this way anymore. The Russian population has been declining for decades, Its been dropping every year, and in the past few years, with Covid deaths, deaths from this war, and people of military age fleeing the country, it’s dropped by about 2 million more over the background rate of decline.

They are in a demographic death spiral. Many young women can’t find husbands because there are 120 women for every 100 men. Young couples aren’t having as many children. People die early compared to other countries. Educated people are leaving the country for better prospects.

So, even if you are a ruthless dictator who doesn’t care about the human lives you are wasting on the battlefield, it seems like you might care about whether your society can sustain the losses and remain viable.

 

[aerostadt]

Russian population is now 143 million people. Small compared to the former Soviet Union. Who knows how Putin and his cronies are thinking. Maybe they are dreaming that if they acquire Ukraine like they did Belarus, they can add 40 million people. Then they would be approaching a country the size of 200 million. I'm not saying this is feasible. Simply saying Russian Putin may be dreaming.

 

[PhilC]

One difference between now and then is that Russia doesn’t really have a surplus population to waste in this way anymore. The Russian population has been declining for decades, Its been dropping every year, and in the past few years, with Covid deaths, deaths from this war, and people of military age fleeing the country, it’s dropped by about 2 million more over the background rate of decline.

They are in a demographic death spiral. Many young women can’t find husbands because there are 120 women for every 100 men. Young couples aren’t having as many children. People die early compared to other countries. Educated people are leaving the country for better prospects.

So, even if you are a ruthless dictator who doesn’t care about the human lives you are wasting on the battlefield, it seems like you might care about whether your society can sustain the losses and remain viable.

If, as is often cited, he wants to be seen as the new Peter the Great he may only be concerned that his legacy is about halting the decline in Russia's global status and expanding its borders. Perhaps he thinks that the population problem is not going to occur in his lifetime so his successors might get the blame for it.

 

[kuririn]

Russian population is now 143 million people. Small compared to the former Soviet Union. Who knows how Putin and his cronies are thinking. Maybe they are dreaming that if they acquire Ukraine like they did Belarus, they can add 40 million people. Then they would be approaching a country the size of 200 million. I'm not saying this is feasible. Simply saying Russian Putin may be dreaming.

Yeah, there seems to be a systematic plan to kidnap Ukrainian children and turn them into good compliant Russian citizens through "reeducation".

 

[mach7]

Kind of off topic.

But I was just thinking an A-10 with 2 mini-gun (M134/GAU-2B) mounted on wing pods would make an excellent anti-drone platform if enough ammo could be carried.

 

[Curtis Enlow]

Yeah, there seems to be a systematic plan to kidnap Ukrainian children and turn them into good compliant Russian citizens through "reeducation".

Sadly, this is nothing new to Russia/Soviet Union. After the Greek Civil War as many as thirty thousand Greek children were sent to the Soviet Union or its satellites and were never returned.

I think the problem with Putin being so ineffective is because he worked hard to model Russia's post-Soviet economy in such a way as to be able to compare with the west and Europe - Toyotas and BMWs, Calvin Klein, McDonalds and KFC, open border travel, etc., but you can't have your southern fried chicken and eat it too. You are going to have to at least fake tolerating the western lifestyle that goes with the material goods in Ikea, including limited social liberality and a (faked) tip 'o the hat to democratic ideals - elections and what not. Of course, that only goes so far, and when you try and reel it back in there is going to be push-back from the generations who grew up watching western movies in theaters, etc..

Stalin, of course, never played that game, and was merciless in convincing the population that, not only were they never going to be like the 'decadent' west, but they would get a bullet through the head for even secretly wishing for it.

The Ukraine hasn't launched a real offensive in months, I suspect they are rebuilding their strength while the western media dutifully reports on fake ammunition shortages and wrestling over aircraft & tanks I suspect Ukrainian crews have been training in for several months already. If Putin makes it to Spring I suspect the hardening of the ground will tell the tale of what is going to happen in short order, as, politically, it behooves the west to wrap this up quickly before China/Saudi Arabia start getting carried away with their new power cartel.

 

[Peartree]

Not terribly recent, but this offers more detail than I had heard before about Ukraine's "biggest tank battle." Everyone is watching Bhakmut but that's not all that's happening.

 

[smstachwick]

Not terribly recent, but this offers more detail than I had heard before about Ukraine's "biggest tank battle." Everyone is watching Bhakmut but that's not all that's happening.

Apparently the Battle of Vuhledar is still ongoing but the Ukrainians clearly have inflicted massive materiel and personnel losses. I don’t see Russia recovering from this. Basically a dead front walking.

 

[cwbullet]

Apparently the Battle of Vuhledar is still ongoing but the Ukrainians clearly have inflicted massive materiel and personnel losses. I don’t see Russia recovering from this. Basically a dead front walking.

Even if they win the war, Russia is crippled for the future.

 

[Sooner Boomer]

Russia loses 1,090 soldiers in reported deadliest day of war

Ukrainian troops killed more than 1,000 Russian soldiers in what could be the deadliest day of fighting since the invasion of the country more than a year ago, Kyiv’s military said Sunday.

nypost.com

 

[afadeev]

Russian population is now 143 million people. Small compared to the former Soviet Union. Who knows how Putin and his cronies are thinking. Maybe they are dreaming that if they acquire Ukraine like they did Belarus, they can add 40 million people. Then they would be approaching a country the size of 200 million. I'm not saying this is feasible. Simply saying Russian Putin may be dreaming.

Ukrainian demographics are no better than Russian. Both countries are in terminal decline (sub-replacement birth rate + above average mortality rate), with the largest population deficit in the 20-35 year old bracket. Those are the folks who are in the prime reproductive period of life, and their paucity only leads to a subsequent generational age-group collapse behind them.

And that was before the war and massive exodus of 20-35 year old males out of Russia, and the spike in mortality rate due to war.



So combining two rapidly depopulating states wouldn't solve any population-centric problems for anyone who thinks and plans rationally.
On the other hand, grabbing neighbor's territories, as Russia did in 2014 when it occupied Crimea, made Putin significantly more popular domestically, at the cost of token external pushback (first time around).
Thus another turn at the same merry-go-round.



a

 

[Peartree]

Ukrainian demographics are no better than Russian. Both countries are in terminal decline (sub-replacement birth rate + above average mortality rate), with the largest population deficit in the 20-35 year old bracket. Those are the folks who are in the prime reproductive period of life, and their paucity only leads to a subsequent generational age-group collapse behind them.

And that was before the war and massive exodus of 20-35 year old males out of Russia, and the spike in mortality rate due to war.

View attachment 568276

Interesting. Since the US Census bureau is the source, I looked there to compare it to China. I had heard that they face a similar inverse "population bomb" because of decades of their "one child policy." Indeed, their chart is quite similar.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Russia has 10 million more women than men, and China has 37 million more men than women. It seems like a good opportunity for a spouse-based import-export business.

 

[Peartree]

Russia has 10 million more women than men, and China has 37 million more men than women. It seems like a good opportunity for a spouse-based import-export business.

Ever since we adopted a little girl from China in '96, and I saw a newspaper article (even then) saying that there were a half million adoptable girls (because people kept the boys and abandoned the girls), I have been saying that this would be a problem. 37 million men looking for wives that aren't there is a problem. Wars have been fought for far less. Once upon a time, Old Testament nations (and I'm sure many others) raided neighboring nations to steal their daughters. China's neighbors have reason to be worried.

Framed in the discussion of Russia in Ukraine, China could stand to lose 37 million men and not move the needle in terms of it's reproductive potential.

That's terrifying.

 

[jderimig]

Ever since we adopted a little girl from China in '96,

Us too! '99

 

[boatgeek]

Russian jets forced a US Reaper drone down over international waters in the Black Sea. While they didn't nominally shoot it down, they did do something to damage the propeller sufficiently that it couldn't make it back to base. Not to mention dumping fuel on it a few times, presumably in hopes of getting it to catch fire. Story developing, may be updated with better info.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Russian jets forced a US Reaper drone down over international waters in the Black Sea. While they didn't nominally shoot it down, they did do something to damage the propeller sufficiently that it couldn't make it back to base. Not to mention dumping fuel on it a few times, presumably in hopes of getting it to catch fire. Story developing, may be updated with better info.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html

That‘s an unwelcome escalation. I wonder what the Russians think they’re doing with that.

 

[boatgeek]

That‘s an unwelcome escalation. I wonder what the Russians think they’re doing with that.

The Russians know we're not going to shoot down a piloted plane over a drone. So they're screwing with us knowing that there's no consequences. Other than possibly damaging their own planes busting up the Reaper's prop.

[edit] It's probably also worth noting that the standard Russian line for some time is that Russia is at war with all of NATO, which is occupying Ukraine against the will and needs of the Ukrainian Russian people (they're all one, you know) except for a few Nazis.* Of course, that hasn't extended to firing on human targets outside of Ukraine's borders (yet). Still, it's not unreasonable to think that Russian military sees all NATO equipment as enemy, but their rules of engagement forbid them from attacking anything but unmanned air or sea equipment.

* I don't agree in any way; I'm just saying what Russians are saying.

 

[Antares JS]

That‘s an unwelcome escalation. I wonder what the Russians think they’re doing with that.

Giving us the proverbial finger, I guess. Doubt the US is going to escalate over a drone.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

I wonder if there is a self-destruct mechanism on the drone? That could be quite an unfortunate accident with the Russian jet dumping fuel!

 

[smstachwick]

Giving us the proverbial finger, I guess. Doubt the US is going to escalate over a drone.

Keeping up foreign relations?

Watch the birdie!

 

[jderimig]

We can call it even after taking out their pipeline..

 

[cls]

I wonder if the Predator was actually taken out by a balloon, or a potato, or a trampoline....

 

[Funkworks]

I wonder which part of the jet would have come in contact with the drone’s propeller.

 

[rharshberger]

I wonder which part of the jet would have come in contact with the drone’s propeller.

Probably a wing tip, given their actions prior to the strike, I dont believe a pilot would intentionally strick a prop with the aircrafts nose or something else equally important, but they might just sacrifice a wing tip to destroy a US Drone.

 

[Funkworks]

Probably a wing tip, given their actions prior to the strike, I dont believe a pilot would intentionally strick a prop with the aircrafts nose or something else equally important, but they might just sacrifice a wing tip to destroy a US Drone.

Yeah. If it was planned ahead, they could even have installed a custom tool for that purpose on the wingtip instead of a missile.