Nor are we likely to.
As disruptive (not crippling) as it would be to have TSMC go offline for the US, it would be nothing compared to the utter devastation and famine that China would suffer if US were to reciprocate and simply blockade the Chinese East coast. Nothing more.
China is a massive net IMPORTER of food and oil. If the imports of either commodities were disrupted to any measurable degree, total economic collapse and famine will follow within 12 months. For that reason alone, China is highly unlikely to ever make a move on Taiwan. Talk the talk, but never walk the walk.
China’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to blockade.
Worst case scenarios:
- China blockades Taiwan - US looses iPhones, and Taiwan gets dinged.
- Far-left and far-right protest in support of Chinas, as per the usual (see the current pro-Putin bed-fellows).
- US blockades China - China goes into full-on famine mode.
- CCP collapses under a wave of food riots.