Maybe late to the game, but this does expertly explain the importance.
Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War
- Thread starter Matt_The_RocketMan
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I understood that a lot of Ukraine’s wheat goes to the middle east and Africa, not Europe. The view in Europe seems to be less about wheat and more about wondering who’s next if Ukraine falls.
The "what's new" threw me into the start of the topic rather than the end. ADMIN............!!!!!!!
Taiwan. The major physical semiconductor manufacturer for the western and the rest of the world. And you won't move that production easily. And of course as we're sending all our spare ammo to Ukraine, the West is not in as good a position to defend that against China as it should be.
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One thing for sure is that there won't be a scarcity of steel after this is all over.
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Not exactly apples-to-apples comparison. Though, initially, I had the same thought and concern.
I will let this guy elaborate:
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While that analysis of could "we" fight a 2nd war at the same time may be true.( I don't think we really want to find out) The western world's loss of access to the semiconductor industry would be crippling. It already is crippling with 2 years of Covid disrupting chip supply.
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Agree completely.
Nor are we likely to.
As disruptive (not crippling) as it would be to have TSMC go offline for the US, it would be nothing compared to the utter devastation and famine that China would suffer if US were to reciprocate and simply blockade the Chinese East coast. Nothing more.
China is a massive net IMPORTER of food and oil. If the imports of either commodities were disrupted to any measurable degree, total economic collapse and famine will follow within 12 months. For that reason alone, China is highly unlikely to ever make a move on Taiwan. Talk the talk, but never walk the walk.
To Defeat China In War, Strangle Its Economy: Expert
China’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to blockade.
www.forbes.com
Worst case scenarios:
- China blockades Taiwan - US looses iPhones, and Taiwan gets dinged.
- Far-left and far-right protest in support of Chinas, as per the usual (see the current pro-Putin bed-fellows).
- US blockades China - China goes into full-on famine mode.
- CCP collapses under a wave of food riots.
a
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If only there was a simple solution......Agree completely.
Nor are we likely to.
As disruptive (not crippling) as it would be to have TSMC go offline for the US, it would be nothing compared to the utter devastation and famine that China would suffer if US were to reciprocate and simply blockade the Chinese East coast. Nothing more.
China is a massive net IMPORTER of food and oil. If the imports of either commodities were disrupted to any measurable degree, total economic collapse and famine will follow within 12 months. For that reason alone, China is highly unlikely to ever make a move on Taiwan. Talk the talk, but never walk the walk.
To Defeat China In War, Strangle Its Economy: Expert
China’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to blockade.
Worst case scenarios:
a
- China blockades Taiwan - US looses iPhones, and Taiwan gets dinged.
- Far-left and far-right protest in support of Chinas, as per the usual (see the current pro-Putin bed-fellows).
- US blockades China - China goes into full-on famine mode.
- CCP collapses under a wave of food riots.
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You got something?
Agree completely.
Nor are we likely to.
As disruptive (not crippling) as it would be to have TSMC go offline for the US, it would be nothing compared to the utter devastation and famine that China would suffer if US were to reciprocate and simply blockade the Chinese East coast. Nothing more.
China is a massive net IMPORTER of food and oil. If the imports of either commodities were disrupted to any measurable degree, total economic collapse and famine will follow within 12 months. For that reason alone, China is highly unlikely to ever make a move on Taiwan. Talk the talk, but never walk the walk.
To Defeat China In War, Strangle Its Economy: Expert
China’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to blockade.
Worst case scenarios:
- China blockades Taiwan - US looses iPhones, and Taiwan gets dinged.
- Far-left and far-right protest in support of Chinas, as per the usual (see the current pro-Putin bed-fellows).
- US blockades China - China goes into full-on famine mode.
- CCP collapses under a wave of food riots.
a
It’d be the German Turnip Winter of 1917 times about 20. They’d be looking at 10 million famine-related deaths easy.
Sell a lot of product to the world where the warranty is invalid unless you allow automatic firmware upgrades. Then update the firmware. Start with the solar power and work down to the fridges. Who'd do that. Chip production is more of an issue than you think. If you think about it. Nice and quiet, no invasion required.
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The LA Times had an article about a Ukrainian phone line to help Russian troops surrender. Appears that shoveling conscripts into a war they do not understand is not exactly making for "Lets go get them!" troops.
What is needed is a Putin saves face exit strategy. He's not gonna give up the access to the black sea. But just about anything else? Dunno
What is needed is a Putin saves face exit strategy. He's not gonna give up the access to the black sea. But just about anything else? Dunno
He won’t have to, he’s got a Black Sea coast in Russia proper. Even got a good-sized port there too.
ThirstyBarbarian
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I really wish the pace of delivering the promised tanks to Ukraine were higher. But it sounds like Ukraine has received a lot of light armor and infantry fighting vehicles, and many of them are armed with anti-tank missiles and high-quality guns that can take out tanks at long ranges. It’s maybe not as good as modern main battle tanks in all situations, but there will be ways to use this equipment effectively and almost the same way as heavy armor.
As the Economist article earlier in the thread pointed out, the Ukrainians are also getting a lot of new and upgraded kit for their soldiers, and they are also getting a ton of training in modern combined arms and maneuver warfare.
I think in a month or so, Russia is going to get a hard lesson in what combined arms warfare can do to their outdated and depleted military.
As the Economist article earlier in the thread pointed out, the Ukrainians are also getting a lot of new and upgraded kit for their soldiers, and they are also getting a ton of training in modern combined arms and maneuver warfare.
I think in a month or so, Russia is going to get a hard lesson in what combined arms warfare can do to their outdated and depleted military.
boatgeek
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There's also a couple of Ukrainian pilots doing "familiarization flying" (or some such euphemism) on F-16s in the US. This is totally not them getting trained to fly the planes in combat, so don't even ask. Wink, wink.
[I can dig up the source if requested; it's been a couple of days so I don't have it right to hand]
[I can dig up the source if requested; it's been a couple of days so I don't have it right to hand]
Here’s one. The euphemism isn’t present but it’s clear that they’re exploring the feasibility of a training program.
Two Ukrainian Pilots Are in the US For Training Assessment on Attack Aircraft, Including F-16S
Two Ukrainian pilots are currently in the United States undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official.
www.nbcconnecticut.com
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What's interesting (if a war killing 1000s of humans can be interesting) is, what role does the main battle tank have in modern warfare? I see opinions that vary widely.
A quick Google Search reveals that their primary role is pretty much…(checks notes)…everything. Destroy infantry formations, fortifications, light and armored vehicles, and other MBTs. It all depends on where they’re deployed, how they’re equipped, and what kind of forces accompany them.
boatgeek
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I wonder if there's too much being read into Russia's performance to date. In other words, is the lesson to be learned how not to use an MBT in modern warfare? It will be interesting to see what happens when Ukraine uses modern MBTs on the offensive against Russian forces.
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Here is an interview with a (former) Abrams tank commander on this very same subject, that may offer a bit insight:
Sooner Boomer
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Remnants of Russian platoon refuse to fight after ‘bulls–t’ mobilization to Donbas
A viral video shows a Russian officer in eastern Ukraine saying that he and his men are refusing to carry out orders.
nypost.com
Well, is it any wonder they're refusing orders...Remnants of Russian platoon refuse to fight after ‘bulls–t’ mobilization to Donbas
A viral video shows a Russian officer in eastern Ukraine saying that he and his men are refusing to carry out orders.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7e...-ukrainians-with-shovels-uk-intelligence-says
TP
There was a report on Sky News a a few days ago about Wagner Group tactics. Their claimed source was UK MoD.
Basically it said that they work in 8 man teams. 8 guys run forward with guns and shovels. When they start taking casualties they go to ground and dig scrapes (under fire - really?) and fire back. The next 8 man team then advances and does the same, ideally bypassing the first team. And so it goes on until either (a) everyone is killed or (b) they take the position.
If this is correct then its the dumbest infantry tactic I've ever heard. No suppressing fire, no calling in artillery, just charge forward and wait to be killed.
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I heard this is done to expose UKR positions and regular troops target those.
boatgeek
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My understanding is that before the advance in 8-person teams, Russian artillery pounds the snot out of the area. If the 8-person teams meet resistance, artillery pounds the snot out of the area again. If they're lucky, they have position reports of where Ukraine's resistance is. Even if they don't, they can report back to their superior officers how successful they've been at firing artillery downrange.
One commentator said that the Russians are using drones for reconnaissance, operating on fixed routes determined at HQ with no permission available to deviate or change approach. It just happens that the drones are human beings.
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Hey, @PhilC how are the squirrels you guys are forced to eat because of the UK's support for Ukraine?
Oh, we can have fun with that...
Standard Russian Armed Forces Training Manual (2023 edition):
- Undergo compliance training (beat out any inkling of a belief there’s value to one’s life)
- Begin weapon familiarization and skills training (plastic shovels)
- Field & strategy training (watch 2 seasons of Dad’s Army)
- Armament skills training (learn to drive & fix 1940s era vintage tanks with duct tape & angle iron)
- Learn to do whatever Vlad wants.
ThirstyBarbarian
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All out of toads? Make do with “Squirrel in the Hole!”
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