Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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Not a lot of dictators are on Twitter or Insta, for whatever reason.
Xi, Kim Jun-whatever, Putin - none feel the need to explain themselves to anyone. At all. Ever.

It's a feature, not a bug.
Yeah, we just can't expect much information from a former KGB agent who eliminates or imprisons opposition and journalists, and controls all media. Most of what we know is from Ukraine, who is biased of course, but also biased in our interests.
 
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How come we actually haven't had an assessment from Ukraine from their losses and not from the Russian media? I mean I understand what you mean, their media is corrupt, but if you go to the source, ie body bags, cant you just count these losses? I mean from our side we can guestamate as to how many died and armory was destroyed, but on the other hand you can actually go to the source on the Ukrainian side and count it... so how come we dont? Id prefer knowing both sides of casualties, even if one side spins it in there favor.... 🤔 lots of questions being asked and a lot of excuses made to make them seem less bad... bias or not id like to hear from both sides....
I'm unclear - are you having trouble finding the numbers for Ukrainian casualties?
 
How come we actually haven't had an assessment from Ukraine from their losses and not from the Russian media? I mean I understand what you mean, their media is corrupt, but if you go to the source, ie body bags, cant you just count these losses? I mean from our side we can guestamate as to how many died and armory was destroyed, but on the other hand you can actually go to the source on the Ukrainian side and count it... so how come we dont? Id prefer knowing both sides of casualties, even if one side spins it in there favor.... 🤔 lots of questions being asked and a lot of excuses made to make them seem less bad... bias or not id like to hear from both sides....
Oh, I'm sure that Ukraine knows very well what their casualties are. They may even share those numbers with NATO militaries to some extent. The UK Ministry of Defence shares estimates of casualties on both sides from time to time, though I don't know if those estimates are informed by Ukrainian numbers. As for why Ukraine doesn't release casualty figures themselves on a regular basis, they're in an existential battle with Russia and don't want to give any advantage to Russia by telling them how the war is going. Specific casualty numbers weren't released in WWII by either side for exactly the same reason. Ukraine does release civilian casualty information fairly regularly, likely because it serves their information warfare needs. When Russia commits obvious war crimes, Ukraine is more able to get offensive and defensive weapons from NATO.

As much as I might like to have more information, I also recognize that data is a valuable commodity in wartime.
 
View attachment 563291

Here's my problem with these reports, I rarely ever hear the other side's casualties, looses of equipment, ect... from what ive heard in retrospect is that the country is more of a Eastern war zone that is being fought over than it is a habitable country to live in... I dont want the war to prolong, for either side. But it seems like the West just keeps giving into the Meat Grinder, almost how WW1 was... stationary fronts thousands from both sides fight over a couple miles of land.... In actual terms id like to know what exactly we keep funding the Ukrainians, where as why we cant fund this to close our own borders.... lots of questions aside from where this conflict will go, and it always seems like the news report is saying one side is loosing but, in reality Ukraine keeps asking for more and more... seems more like a Proxy war to me.
Last I checked, the contents of the aid packages are announced around the time they’re sent. Some of those reports may be accurate, some may be incomplete, some may be partially or entirely fictitious.

Regarding the border question, that’s not really a military issue. The terrain is largely inhospitable and most people in the United States illegally don’t bother crossing it away from the barrier. They usually go through legal ports of entry and overstay their visa.
 
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It sounds like the US wants to see some faster gains by Ukraine. It will become harder to keep up the flow of arms and assistance as time goes on, especially without solid results. We and our alies will start to run low on inventory for drawdowns, and political will could waver.

I want to see Ukraine win, and I think they can. But I am starting to get worried about political will after a year. I think they need to make major gains in the spring offensive.

Here’s a WaPo article gift link.

https://wapo.st/3xlQ6yP
 
It sounds like the US wants to see some faster gains by Ukraine. It will become harder to keep up the flow of arms and assistance as time goes on, especially without solid results. We and our alies will start to run low on inventory for drawdowns, and political will could waver.

I want to see Ukraine win, and I think they can. But I am starting to get worried about political will after a year. I think they need to make major gains in the spring offensive.

Here’s a WaPo article gift link.

https://wapo.st/3xlQ6yP
From the reporting I've seen, I suspect that both the Russians and the Ukrainians are planning Spring offensives.
 
From the reporting I've seen, I suspect that both the Russians and the Ukrainians are planning Spring offensives.
All the news I am hearing points to this also. It amazes me that Russia can still mount an offensive. Both sides have lost a huge number of Soldiers, but he Russians have over 5 times what they lost in Afghanistan and this was a much shorter war.
 
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I watch a You Tube channel called CRUX. Very informative. They talk about Ukrainian loses. About 100 to 200 per day. They also talk about equipment loses. They do this with Russian loses too. Another channel is TVP. They are a Polish public broadcasting channel. One of the shows is Miliary Mind. They report the current situation and and have clips from the front lines. Another TVP report is called Break the Fake. As the name implies, they rebut fake news. There are others I watch regularly.
 
From the reporting I've seen, I suspect that both the Russians and the Ukrainians are planning Spring offensives.

Definitely, that’s what is being planned. And it seems like the Russian offensive may already be starting in Luhansk.
 
Definitely, that’s what is being planned. And it seems like the Russian offensive may already be starting in Luhansk.
I thinks its a Feb 24th offensive rather than a spring offensive. Putin will be able to go on TV and say 'A year into our ten day special military operation and we've won a huge victory by taking Bakhmut...'.
 
Im not sure what to think of this anymore. I had a certain opinion at a time. But as time has gone on, now I am just:
Angry
Sad
See only death
What a waste
"What a waste" is right and Putin shows no sign of stopping. The Russians have kept the waste going on in the Eastern Ukraine since 2014 and I don't think that they will quit now. The Ukraine is suffering so much more than Russia. Putin will not stop as long as he is in power and he could be there another decade or more. The Ukraine needs to be armed so that they neutralize the Russians wearing down their daily lives, so that they can regain some degree of normalcy.
 
I thinks its a Feb 24th offensive rather than a spring offensive. Putin will be able to go on TV and say 'A year into our ten day special military operation and we've won a huge victory by taking Bakhmut...'.
Part of the problem, and one that Putin has certainly been counting on, is that Westerners, and Americans in particular, have a very short attention span. He's likely surprised that we haven't lost interest already. It's still been less than a year. Pfft. That's exactly why the Afghans knew that they would win. They weren't going anywhere. They knew that every foreign invader for two thousand years (or more) had eventually just given up and gone home. The Russians got tired of bleeding their young men after something like 20 years, and the Americans were no different.

Putin has assumed from the beginning that all he had to do was persist until the Americans, and the rest of NATO, got bored and went home. Too many of us simply expected everything to be over in six weeks. We should remember that Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939 and that war didn't end until SIX YEARS later on September 2, 1945.

One year.

This thing could just be getting started.
 
Part of the problem, and one that Putin has certainly been counting on, is that Westerners, and Americans in particular, have a very short attention span. He's likely surprised that we haven't lost interest already. It's still been less than a year. Pfft. That's exactly why the Afghans knew that they would win. They weren't going anywhere. They knew that every foreign invader for two thousand years (or more) had eventually just given up and gone home. The Russians got tired of bleeding their young men after something like 20 years, and the Americans were no different.

Putin has assumed from the beginning that all he had to do was persist until the Americans, and the rest of NATO, got bored and went home. Too many of us simply expected everything to be over in six weeks. We should remember that Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939 and that war didn't end until SIX YEARS later on September 2, 1945.

One year.

This thing could just be getting started.
Unfortunately, there are rumblings that the US is going to back off on support. Yes, support passed with wide majorities in the last Congress. That was with one-party control. Now with split control there are lots of people talking about reducing the flow of arms and money to Ukraine. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen. There are a few too many influential people who see Putin as a role model rather than a cautionary tale.
 
Unfortunately, there are rumblings that the US is going to back off on support. Yes, support passed with wide majorities in the last Congress. That was with one-party control. Now with split control there are lots of people talking about reducing the flow of arms and money to Ukraine. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen. There are a few too many influential people who see Putin as a role model rather than a cautionary tale.
I can't see European interest drifting away so quickly. This is on our doorstep.

American support to Ukraine has been substantial and any reduction would have to be made up from somewhere. It would probably result in increased financial pressure on European states. Supporting the 8 million Ukranian refugees (UNHCR figures) is generally not included in the stats for European contributions, and the budgetary pressure from the loss of cheap Russian gas is keenly felt. I suspect that a reduction in American committment to Ukraine would be received badly on this side of the Atlantic. It would also send the wrong signal to Moscow.
 
I can't see European interest drifting away so quickly. This is on our doorstep.

American support to Ukraine has been substantial and any reduction would have to be made up from somewhere. It would probably result in increased financial pressure on European states. Supporting the 8 million Ukranian refugees (UNHCR figures) is generally not included in the stats for European contributions, and the budgetary pressure from the loss of cheap Russian gas is keenly felt. I suspect that a reduction in American committment to Ukraine would be received badly on this side of the Atlantic. It would also send the wrong signal to Moscow.
I 100% agree with all of that. I am just not confident that the House won't back off of future military aid for any number of reasons, particularly when a couple of really-seem-like-they're-crazy members apparently have the Speaker by the short and curlies.
 
Here's my problem with these reports, I rarely ever hear the other side's casualties, looses of equipment, ect...

You can always PM <Dotini>. He will hook you up with Russian propaganda in no time.

from what ive heard in retrospect is that the country is more of a Eastern war zone that is being fought over than it is a habitable country to live in...

I have no idea what you were trying to say.
But siting sources, so that others can draw their own conclusions, is a good practice.

.... In actual terms id like to know what exactly we keep funding the Ukrainians, where as why we cant fund this to close our own borders....
The answer to the first part of the sentence has been covered in this thread, ad infinitum.
Search earlier in the thread.

As to why not funding someone's preferred program X, Y, Z - talk to your congressman. They vote on funding.
"Closing our borders" would be an idiotic way to crash the US economy and send this country into a depression.

seems more like a Proxy war to me.

That's the preferred Russian propaganda line - that Russia is fighting a "proxy" war with US / NATO / West.

Factually, the argument is false, as Russian invasion of Ukraine in not way meets definition of a "proxy war".
See below:

1676486986098.png
 
That's the preferred Russian propaganda line - that Russia is fighting a "proxy" war with US / NATO / West.

Factually, the argument is false, as Russian invasion of Ukraine in not way meets definition of a "proxy war".
See below:

View attachment 563499

I’d say Russia is not fighting a proxy war. They are fighting an illegal war of conquest and genocide.

Ukraine is not fighting a proxy war. They are fighting a defensive war to defend their territory, people, culture, and way of life.

The US and allies are kind of fighting a proxy war by providing weapons and assistance to Ukraine but keeping out of the direct fighting. Our assistance to Ukraine has several reasons and goals. One is to preserve the international rules-based order. Another is to keep Russia off nato’s doorstep. And another is to degrade Russia’s military and economic capacity to do this kind of thing. Providing military aid to accomplish that last one, but not fighting directly, is probably the closest to what we usually think of as a proxy war.
 
I’d say Russia is not fighting a proxy war. They are fighting an illegal war of conquest and genocide.

Ukraine is not fighting a proxy war. They are fighting a defensive war to defend their territory, people, culture, and way of life.

The US and allies are kind of fighting a proxy war by providing weapons and assistance to Ukraine but keeping out of the direct fighting. Our assistance to Ukraine has several reasons and goals. One is to preserve the international rules-based order. Another is to keep Russia off nato’s doorstep. And another is to degrade Russia’s military and economic capacity to do this kind of thing. Providing military aid to accomplish that last one, but not fighting directly, is probably the closest to what we usually think of as a proxy war.
I agree. We should note that various commentators will define a proxy war differently and that some only feel that a power being involved by proxy is necessary, even without actively instigating it.

The fact remains that NATO has attempted to engage Russia in productive dialogue even while Moscow has used every provocation method in the book, from shooting down civilian airliners to open cyberwarfare to doping their Olympians. We’re not the bad guys here. Ukraine is not yet the last straw but Putin has to know he’s only digging himself into a deeper hole.
 
I completely agree with @ThirstyBarbarian; for the US and NATO countries this resembles a proxy war, but the alternative is to abandon the Ukrainian people. The cause is morally right.
But why do some people use the term “proxy war” negatively? As though it’s somehow dishonest or illegitimate? Nobody is more motivated than the Ukrainians. If we can support them by sending weapons at minimal cost to our most valuable asset, our own military people, that’s great! If they destroy the Russian oligarchy in doing so, that’s very wise use of our capital.
 

As if Russia needs to tease the Slumbering Lion... dont you think they have enough fighting and war to deal with? Like provoking us wouldnt even get you anywhere unless they like the taste of Freedom? I dont know but hell they must be on sort of strong Vodka to be flying this close, giving we have been more territorial with our air space🤔
 
As if Russia needs to tease the Slumbering Lion... dont you think they have enough fighting and war to deal with? Like provoking us wouldnt even get you anywhere unless they like the taste of Freedom? I dont know but hell they must be on sort of strong Vodka to be flying this close, giving we have been more territorial with our air space🤔
Focus on the bottom part of the screenshot you shared...

These interactions between Russian and US planes in that area are completely routine. Nothing new about it.
 
I usually think of proxy wars as the civil wars in Central and South America, Africa, and Asia, during the Cold War where the US and USSR took sides but neither actually fought the war. But that’s just one definition.
 
I'm sure there's an implication to the screenshot you attached below the quote of my post... but I'm honestly not sure what it is.

My point remains - we intercept Russian planes in that region regularly. It's not noteworthy at this point.
 
So, my question is to anybody in a position to know:

What are usually the circumstances of intercepting Russian planes? Are they typically loaded out for a combat or spy mission or are we just reminding each other that we’re there?

Are the Russians usually instructed to go about their business under supervision or do we typically shoo them away?
 
So, my question is to anybody in a position to know:

What are usually the circumstances of intercepting Russian planes? Are they typically loaded out for a combat or spy mission or are we just reminding each other that we’re there?

Are the Russians usually instructed to go about their business under supervision or do we typically shoo them away?
From the few news stories I remember over the last decades, it's mostly "reminding each other that we’re there", and poking at the other's readiness. A cynical person could joke that it's to keep air forces on either side busy and feel important, but it's certainly more than that for those involved. We hear of similar encounters near Taiwan.
 
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