Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[kuririn]

Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.

In many instances in history "escalation" has actually forced one side to agree to a negotiated truce.

 

[Peartree]

Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.

Nope.

You can't punch someone and then cry 'escalation' when he punches you in the face. If you start a fight, you'd better be ready for the other guy to hit you back.

 

[cwbullet]

Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.

There will never be a diplomatic solution outside of Russia giving up. This was going to be a long conflict and it will bleed out the bear.

 

[MikeT]

There will never be a diplomatic solution outside of Russia giving up. This was going to be a long conflict and it will bleed out the bear.

And US......................

Mike

 

[Peartree]

And US......................

Mike

Meh.

Russia has the same GDP as Spain. The US is quite a bit larger and we're not the only ones contributing.

 

[MikeT]

Meh.

Russia has the same GDP as Spain. The US is quite a bit larger and we're not the only ones contributing.

That's the problem.

Mike

 

[afadeev]

The article says the railroad portion of the bridge won't be repaired for another 6 to 7 months. It was the truck bombing of this bridge that supposedly impelled the subsequent Russian destruction of ~40% of Ukraine's water, heating and electrical power generating facilities. So I suppose they'll stop these infrastructure attacks once their bridge is fixed.

Wow - this take the cake for the dumbest Russian propaganda post, this year.

Kudos, Comrade Dotini!

 

[Titan II]

and infrastructure is a war crime.

That is not necessarily true.

 

[cls]

And US......................

Mike

Mmmmm, not really. Total US contributions so far are under $20 billion, or 2% of US military budget, or 0.1% of US GDP It's like a rounding error from the accounting department.

 

[heada]

Mmmmm, not really. Total US contributions so far are under $20 billion, or 2% of US military budget, or 0.1% of US GDP It's like a rounding error from the accounting department.

And that 20B is inflated with a lot of book value items that were slated to be scraped.

 

[boatgeek]

Reports coming in of explosions at Russian airfields in Saratov and Ryazan on Telegram channnels. These airbases are deep inside of Russia. If Ukraine was responsible, it would be a significant escalation although not unjustified if attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure are coming from these airfields. At the moment the airbase explosions have the feel of a false flag or an internal group in Russia.

Another attack today was reported on an airbase ~250 miles from Moscow that hosts nuclear-capable bombers that are also bombing Ukraine now. All of these attacks are reportedly by a Soviet-era recon drone outfitted with a bomb payload. It's ... remarkable ... that a non-stealthy fighter-jet-sized aircraft made it from Ukraine to a strategic bomber base without being identified or shot down by Russian air defense.

 

[psmcginnis5]

I rarely comment on much. But just read and if I do it is usually to correct something that seems to be mistaken. The figure of $20 billion is simply not correct. You can see on the Internet a figure similar to this usually written 18 or $19 billion which is talking about direct security aid. Which I think is code, words for weapons, however if you look at appropriations articles in November spending looked more like something in the mid $60 billion. And that currently there are efforts to increase that spending but figures that look like 30 billion
Now having said that and before people start calling me, tools of Putin and Russian propaganda Meister. The vast difference in economic power between the United States and Russia makes even this figure not overly significant, and if you gather together the economic power of NATO in general, it is crushingly superior to Russia.

 

[boatgeek]

I rarely comment on much. But just read and if I do it is usually to correct something that seems to be mistaken. The figure of $20 billion is simply not correct. You can see on the Internet a figure similar to this usually written 18 or $19 billion which is talking about direct security aid. Which I think is code, words for weapons, however if you look at appropriations articles in November spending looked more like something in the mid $60 billion. And that currently there are efforts to increase that spending but figures that look like 30 billion
Now having said that and before people start calling me, tools of Putin and Russian propaganda Meister. The vast difference in economic power between the United States and Russia makes even this figure not overly significant, and if you gather together the economic power of NATO in general, it is crushingly superior to Russia.

Not disputing the numbers, but there is also a difference between what has been authorized/appropriated ($~60B last I checked) and what has actually been spent (probably closer to $20B, but keeping in mind the "book value" issues noted above).

 

[georgegassaway]

CWBULLET said: "There will never be a diplomatic solution outside of Russia giving up. This was going to be a long conflict and it will bleed out the bear."

And US......................

Bulls***.

The US isn't bleeding out any TROOPS to this.

And MikeT, did you complain about the cost of the war in perpetuity, I mean, War in Afghanistan? 2.3 TRILLION. Bleeding out over 100 BILLION a year.

2,456 military dead, and 20,752 wounded. With many many many thousands more with post-traumatic stress syndrome whose lives have been permanently affected.

We're not bleeding any US troops or ruining their lives for the future.

Russia is feeding the meatgrinder with their hundreds of thousands of unwilling draftees (who have very little to no training and often not the basics like.... winter clothing!). And murderers let out of prison who can get their jollies trying to be murderers in Ukraine (would be so Karmic if some of the ones let out of prison, killed off some officers before driving off into the sunset in a stolen military vehicle).

Pootin' Putler is bleeding out support by the population. At least the ones not so hypnotized by Russian Propaganda, or adore Pootin' Putler almost god-like no matter WHAT he does.

But some day the "woke" part of Russia's population may get the upper hand if it can reach critical mass. We'll see.

 

[Greg Furtman]

A good article about Ukraine's drone attack on the Russian airbases. Lt. General Ben Hodges makes a good point when he says that during the Soviet Union Ukraine was the heart of the Soviet Union's defense industry.

The Bayraktar engines are made in Ukraine for Turkey. And it looks like the Ukrainians have upgraded some old 1970's missiles with new electronics to make these strikes. I have to admire how inventive (and sneaky) the Ukrainians are.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles-kyiv-zaporizhzhia-intl

 

[Greg Furtman]

This is probably the company that made the airbase strikes possible.

https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/

 

[afadeev]

and infrastructure is a war crime.

That is not necessarily true.

True 'dat, but wholesale bombing of civilian water treatment and energy facilities throughout a country - is.

I rarely comment on much. But just read and if I do it is usually to correct something that seems to be mistaken. The figure of $20 billion is simply not correct. You can see on the Internet a figure similar to this usually written 18 or $19 billion which is talking about direct security aid. Which I think is code, words for weapons, however if you look at appropriations articles in November spending looked more like something in the mid $60 billion. And that currently there are efforts to increase that spending but figures that look like 30 billion

Here is the official Congressional Research Service (CRS) tracker of actual US Security Assistance to Ukraine drawdowns from FY2016-FY2022.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040
The key, of course, is not $$$ amounts, but the type of military equipment we are transferring to Ukraine that enables them to defend themselves.
When far-left/far-right folks complain about the exact $$$ amounts involved and that someone else (Europe, China, Luxemburg?) should be assisting Ukraine, they are obfuscating the fact that Ukraine can't defend itself with pallets of dollar bills. They need the appropriate military equipment to get the job done.

Specifically, in 2022, the United States has provided more advanced defense equipment to Ukraine, as well as greater amounts of previously provided equipment. According to DOD, U.S. security assistance committed to Ukraine as of October 14, 2022, has included the following:

• 20 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition (+18 more via longer-term procurement);
• 2 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) (+6 more via longer-term procurement);
• 1,400+ Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• 8,500+ Javelin anti-armor systems and 32,000+ other anti-armor systems;
• 700+ Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS, 700+ Switchblade Tactical UAS, and other UAS;
• 142 155 mm and 36 105 mm Howitzers with more than 1 million artillery rounds;
• 20 120 mm mortar systems and 115,000 mortar rounds;
• 1,500 Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles, high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMs), and laser-guided rocket systems;
• 20 Mi-17 helicopters;
• Hundreds of Armored Humvee Vehicles and 440 mine resistant vehicles;
• 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• 10,000+ grenade launchers and small arms;
• Communications and intelligence equipment.

Some of the above are the latest greatest (e.g.: HIMARS), some are storage inventory write-downs (e.g.: M113s, Mi-17s).

Few of the above have adequate inventory of alternatives, worldwide.

a

 

[afadeev]

Another attack today was reported on an airbase ~250 miles from Moscow that hosts nuclear-capable bombers that are also bombing Ukraine now. All of these attacks are reportedly by a Soviet-era recon drone outfitted with a bomb payload. It's ... remarkable ... that a non-stealthy fighter-jet-sized aircraft made it from Ukraine to a strategic bomber base without being identified or shot down by Russian air defense.

Now imagine if we gave Ukraine a few dozen TLAMs, and Ukraine used them to write off the bulk of Russian strategic bomber fleet!
What could possibly be of greater strategic long-term value-add to the US?


Now, if only we had the balls to make that happen...

 

[Dotini]

There will never be a diplomatic solution outside of Russia giving up. This was going to be a long conflict and it will bleed out the bear.

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. Millions of refugees, 200,000 dead, 5 or 6 times that many wounded, and ~40% of Ukraine without fresh water, heat and electricity, and that's just for openers. It's going to cost us plenty to keep this fight going. As an antiwar Libertarian for over 30 years, I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

 

[dhbarr]

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. ... I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

Invasions of one's neighbors rarely do.

 

[boatgeek]

Now imagine if we gave Ukraine a few dozen TLAMs, and Ukraine used them to write off the bulk of Russian strategic bomber fleet!
What could possibly be of greater strategic long-term value-add to the US?


Now, if only we had the balls to make that happen...

That's kind of an interesting proposition. The TLAMs in service now are pretty much all ship-launched. That said, the box launcher looks like it would fit fairly comfortably on a flatbed rail car. That foundation would be straightforward to design, then you'd just need another railcar (behind a blast deflector) that supplies power and control. One hiccup is whether the versions we currently have in stock require the missile to be connected to the US/NATO network. If they do, it's probably a no-go. Any pre-network versions hanging around gathering dust would be more straightforward to transfer. Maintenance wouldn't be all that difficult, since the launcher would be mobile enough to take out of country. Plus, you're going to fire a few dozen at most--maintenance probably wouldn't be that big an issue in that time.

 

[boatgeek]

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. Millions of refugees, 200,000 dead, 5 or 6 times that many wounded, and ~40% of Ukraine without fresh water, heat and electricity, and that's just for openers. It's going to cost us plenty to keep this fight going. As an antiwar Libertarian for over 30 years, I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

Millions of refugees: check
200K dead: we're well on the way, with 80K+ Russians dead already without even talking about Ukrainian army and civilians
5-6 times that wounded: probably also well on the way
40% of Ukraine without power: check

So your worst case scenario is what's already here. The only way to avoid that is for Ukraine to (a) beat Russia quickly or (b) surrender now. Given the horrors exposed after liberation of Bucha and Kherson, the carnage wouldn't stop with surrender. Civilian casualties and war crimes would surge dramatically.

Why is the body count never the Russians' fault in your estimation?

 

[smstachwick]

Another attack today was reported on an airbase ~250 miles from Moscow that hosts nuclear-capable bombers that are also bombing Ukraine now. All of these attacks are reportedly by a Soviet-era recon drone outfitted with a bomb payload. It's ... remarkable ... that a non-stealthy fighter-jet-sized aircraft made it from Ukraine to a strategic bomber base without being identified or shot down by Russian air defense.

Things haven’t appeared to change much since Mathias Rust landed his Skyhawk in Red Square in 1987.

 

[afadeev]

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. Millions of refugees, 200,000 dead, 5 or 6 times that many wounded, and ~40% of Ukraine without fresh water, heat and electricity, and that's just for openers. It's going to cost us plenty to keep this fight going. As an antiwar Libertarian for over 30 years, I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

And your constructive proposal is ... what exactly?

To dismember Ukraine to please Putin, and give him the real-estate he requires to expand Russian Empires borders to the next boundary? And the next boundary after that one?

Criticizing and complaining about the reality on the ground us is easy. Something can always be better. My pre-K kids had quickly mastered that skill set years ago, in no time.
Proposing constructive plan to improve the situation is much MUCH harder. They are still working on that.
How about yourself?

 

[smstachwick]

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. Millions of refugees, 200,000 dead, 5 or 6 times that many wounded, and ~40% of Ukraine without fresh water, heat and electricity, and that's just for openers. It's going to cost us plenty to keep this fight going. As an antiwar Libertarian for over 30 years, I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

If you were truly anti-war you would have supported the demands for Moscow to withdraw to the pre-2014 lines of control, and asserted Ukraine’s right to expel foreign invaders. Your current stance is not anti-war, it’s pro-Russia.

 

[Greg Furtman]

Here's a DW update about the strike & two different views of what happened. The fellow from Budapest thinks drones were smuggled into Russia and then launched from there. The reporter at the end thinks that Ukraine upgraded some old Soviet drones to make the strikes. Only time will tell what actually went on.

 

[PhilC]

Yes, it looks like a long, ugly fight ending in massive death and destruction. Millions of refugees, 200,000 dead, 5 or 6 times that many wounded, and ~40% of Ukraine without fresh water, heat and electricity, and that's just for openers. It's going to cost us plenty to keep this fight going. As an antiwar Libertarian for over 30 years, I have serious doubts this will have a happy ending.

So what are the alternatives? Should nations just turn a blind eye every time a nation acts aggressively? How would you stop nations from invading their neighbours?
We're seeing an act of naked aggression and people are going to suffer as a result. That's the nature of war.

Whining about the suffering of others offers no insight or solutions.

 

[Dotini]

Millions of refugees: check
200K dead: we're well on the way, with 80K+ Russians dead already without even talking about Ukrainian army and civilians
5-6 times that wounded: probably also well on the way
40% of Ukraine without power: check

So your worst case scenario is what's already here. The only way to avoid that is for Ukraine to (a) beat Russia quickly or (b) surrender now. Given the horrors exposed after liberation of Bucha and Kherson, the carnage wouldn't stop with surrender. Civilian casualties and war crimes would surge dramatically.

Why is the body count never the Russians' fault in your estimation?

I think the Russians have an unacknowledged philosophy that is shared by most of the rest of the world, including us: Might makes right, and the ends justify the means. But they just won't submit to our unipolar world. They're not going to change their stripes. China the same.

So we may be on the inevitable path to bloodier war that spills beyond its present borders like World War I, when millions died. The entire planet may be in recession next year. Some European support for the war and the sanctions is already getting shaky due to mega economic/energy problems. If we are really doing the right thing by supporting this proxy war with our money, weapons and global sanctions, we may need to up the ante to our solder's and airmen's lives if the Ukrainians cannot put a decisive victory together in time. I'm told our armed forces are lacking the large numbers of healthy young men it would take to go to kill people like we used to do in Vietnam. And are we rapidly using up our reserves of weapons and ammunition and are dipping into what is kept ready for use in our front line bases? I think we are unprepared to fight a major war, yet we seem to be provoking it. Darwin Award! I'm prepared to acknowledge we may be doing our best to do the right thing - whatever the "right thing" really is. And both major parties and the mainstream media currently support the effort. But as an antiwar Libertarian, I'm not at all convinced,

 

[CalebJ]

I think the Russians have an unacknowledged philosophy that is shared by most of the rest of the world, including us: Might makes right, and the ends justify the means. But they just won't submit to our unipolar world. They're not going to change their stripes. China the same.

So we may be on the inevitable path to bloodier war that spills beyond its present borders like World War I, when millions died. The entire planet may be in recession next year. Some European support for the war and the sanctions is already getting shaky due to mega economic/energy problems. If we are really doing the right thing by supporting this proxy war with our money, weapons and global sanctions, we may need to up the ante to our solder's and airmen's lives if the Ukrainians cannot put a decisive victory together in time. I'm told our armed forces are lacking the large numbers of healthy young men it would take to go to kill people like we used to do in Vietnam. And are we rapidly using up our reserves of weapons and ammunition and are dipping into what is kept ready for use in our front line bases? I think we are unprepared to fight a major war, yet we seem to be provoking it. Darwin Award! I'm prepared to acknowledge we may be doing our best to do the right thing - whatever the "right thing" really is. And both major parties and the mainstream media currently support the effort. But as an antiwar Libertarian, I'm not at all convinced,

What, exactly, do you think we ought to do in a situation like this?

 

[heada]

We aren't fighting this war. This isn't a proxy war. This is a war between an aggressor (Russia) and a defender (Ukraine) We are supporting Ukraine because it is the right thing to do. We aren't doing it because we want to see Russia fail. If they didn't invade Ukraine, we wouldn't have started something else in order to fight a proxy war. We (everyone besides Russia and Ukraine) can't put an end to the war, it is up to either Russia or Ukraine to stop the war. Russia could stop it by leaving Ukraine or defeating Ukraine. Ukraine could stop it by either submitting to Russia or expelling them from their land. We (the US) have the power and might to end the Russian invasion in a matter of weeks if we so desired but that isn't something we are willing to do. We are willing to give Ukraine the tools and knowledge to allow them to defend themselves. That is the right thing to do and I fully support our efforts to do so. If the roles were reversed and we had to defend ourselves from an aggressor that invaded our land, killed our relatives, stole our property and terrorized the population, I would hope the rest of the world would support us in our defense.