Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

PhilC

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Not exactly; sometimes, you can win a war by attrition and time. We won nearly every battle in Vietnam but lost the war. We beat the hell out of Afgan, but gave up and retreated.
Raw military power is not enough to win a war. Wars can be lost on the home front if the population isn't behind you, or the government lacks the politcal will to see it through. This is particularly true in assymetric wars where the enemy can undermine the home front by simply ensuring a steady stream of body bags on the TV every night.
 

cwbullet

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Raw military power is not enough to win a war. Wars can be lost on the home front if the population isn't behind you, or the government lacks the politcal will to see it through. This is particularly true in assymetric wars where the enemy can undermine the home front by simply ensuring a steady stream of body bags on the TV every night.
True. Ukraine is not asymmetric and if we joined against Russia, we would pound them into oblivion. I am not buying the BS that they would use nukes. No one is that stupid. Crazy is another story.
 

Mushtang

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We beat the hell out of Afgan, but gave up and retreated.
Didn't we "give up" because our primary goal of getting Russia out of the war was accomplished? When Russia left we left, and let the Afgan army fight for themselves once they were no longer being slaughtered. They felt like we betrayed them by not sticking around, which led to a lot of anti-America sentiment, which led to attacks on the USA which included the 9/11 attacks.

At least that's how I understand the story. Is that pretty much correct?
 

cwbullet

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Didn't we "give up" because our primary goal of getting Russia out of the war was accomplished? When Russia left we left, and let the Afgan army fight for themselves once they were no longer being slaughtered. They felt like we betrayed them by not sticking around, which led to a lot of anti-America sentiment, which led to attacks on the USA which included the 9/11 attacks.

At least that's how I understand the story. Is that pretty much correct?

I think you are correct. This time, I feel like we have set ourselves up for another one.
 

Dotini

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“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought death, destruction and untold suffering. We all remember the horrors of Bucha. It is estimated that more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 Ukrainian military personnel have died to date. Russia must pay for its heinous crimes, including the crime of aggression against a sovereign state,”
- Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President

It must be noted the embarrassing statement has been omitted and Ukraine's Commander in Chief admits only ~9000 lost.
 

PhilC

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“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought death, destruction and untold suffering. We all remember the horrors of Bucha. It is estimated that more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 Ukrainian military personnel have died to date. Russia must pay for its heinous crimes, including the crime of aggression against a sovereign state,”
- Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President


It must be noted the embarrassing statement has been omitted and Ukraine's Commander in Chief admits only ~9000 lost.
Von der Leyen has corrected her statement to 100,000 killed and wounded.
 

Dotini

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I've seen a figure of 5 or 6 to one as a typical wounded-to-killed ratio in this sort of conflict. Hard to say. Is there any current figure on the refugees?

US sources estimate 200k dead.
 
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Greg Furtman

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I was just on Google Maps looking at the Tucson area. I wonder how many usable fighter jets are stored at the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base aircraft boneyard that could help Ukraine? There are 4400 aircraft there and lots of them are fighter jets.
 

James Duffy

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I was just on Google Maps looking at the Tucson area. I wonder how many usable fighter jets are stored at the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base aircraft boneyard that could help Ukraine? There are 4400 aircraft there and lots of them are fighter jets.
The problem isn't aircraft, but training. It takes at least a year to take a competent pilot and qualify them on a new fighter. That is why so much emphasis has been placed on transferring MiG-29 aircraft from nearly countries already in the process of transitioning to western aircraft. The Ukrainian pilots already know the MiG-29, so transferring similar aircraft from Poland and Slovakia is a good short term fix. Those countries have already started integrating the F-16 into their forces, so the US accelerates delivery of those aircraft as the Fulcrums head to Ukraine.

Another challenge is that the aircraft is just one part of a larger weapon system. You also need trained crews, AWACS aircraft, theater radar systems, armaments, etc. That takes years to make happen in an effective manner.

I would be surprised if there was not already a significant cadre of Ukrainian fighter pilots quietly training for new aircraft systems here in the US, along with maintenance crews.
 
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WoShuGui

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Reports coming in of explosions at Russian airfields in Saratov and Ryazan on Telegram channnels. These airbases are deep inside of Russia. If Ukraine was responsible, it would be a significant escalation although not unjustified if attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure are coming from these airfields. At the moment the airbase explosions have the feel of a false flag or an internal group in Russia.

 

aerostadt

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Dotini

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The article says the railroad portion of the bridge won't be repaired for another 6 to 7 months. It was the truck bombing of this bridge that supposedly impelled the subsequent Russian destruction of ~40% of Ukraine's water, heating and electrical power generating facilities. So I suppose they'll stop these infrastructure attacks once their bridge is fixed. I've heard Ukraine is now seeking US aid to rebuild their infrastructure. Why not? In for a penny, in for a pound.
 

boatgeek

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The article says the railroad portion of the bridge won't be repaired for another 6 to 7 months. It was the truck bombing of this bridge that supposedly impelled the subsequent Russian destruction of ~40% of Ukraine's water, heating and electrical power generating facilities. So I suppose they'll stop these infrastructure attacks once their bridge is fixed. I've heard Ukraine is now seeking US aid to rebuild their infrastructure. Why not? In for a penny, in for a pound.
US aid for rebuilding is kind of a two-fer. We help an ally and we also basically specify that our aid buys American-made equipment. I don't know that the last is part of this particular project, but it's extremely common in US foreign aid.
 

cls

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Reports coming in of explosions at Russian airfields in Saratov and Ryazan on Telegram channnels. These airbases are deep inside of Russia. If Ukraine was responsible, it would be a significant escalation although not unjustified if attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure are coming from these airfields. At the moment the airbase explosions have the feel of a false flag or an internal group in Russia.

Ukraine has claimed those attacks. NY Times headline , 30 minutes ago.
 

smstachwick

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Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.
Putin does that already by continuing the war and demanding territorial concessions. Ukraine loses nothing by not seeking negotiation.

By attacking airfields deep inside Russia they (hopefully) divert forces away from the front lines by making the Russians devote a lot of manpower to internal security.

With luck, it’ll accomplish the same thing the Doolittle raid did: Minimal damage but disproportionate effectiveness in force transfer.
 
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cls

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Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.

Oh, stop equivalncing and misrepresenting!

Attacking civilians and infrastructure is a war crime; defensive maneuvers against military targets is fair game.

Eventually, Russia will be held to account for their war crimes.

There are not 2 sides to this, Ivan.
 

boatgeek

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Turns out you can't repeatedly invade your neighbors for most of a decade without getting punched in the mouth.
Who knew?

Escalation is a wonderful thing. To absolutely rule out a diplomatic outcome is a triumph beyond reckoning.
Russia can stop all attacks inside its borders in an instant. Announce a withdrawal from occupied Ukraine and cease firing. If they choose to prosecute a war, they shouldn't be surprised that some of it comes back to them.
 
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