Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
It’s too bad the previous attack on the Crimean bridge didn’t take it out completely. We don’t exactly know who did it or by what means, but whatever the details, that same method is probably off the table now and can’t be repeated. And an attack on it by missile or aerial bombing is also not likely due to the range and Russian defenses. It seems like it was probably a brilliant one-off strategic and psychological blow, and now Ukraine needs to focus on another target.
 
Now there are starting to be public reports of unprepared, untrained, unequipped, and poorly led Russian troops from the new mobilization being killed, wounded, and captured by Ukraine. It was completely expected, and now it’s happening.

Here’s an interesting bit on the topic from yesterday’s ISW report:

Russian milbloggers claimed that Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District (SMD), Mikhail Zusko, ordered the immediate deployment without any pre-combat training of newly mobilized servicemen of the 15th Regiment of the 27th Motor Rifle Brigade from Moscow City and Moscow Oblast to the collapsing frontline around Svatove around October 2nd and 3rd.[2] Ukrainian outlets had previously reported that the Kremlin has arrested Zusko due to combat losses, and it is unclear why an SMD commander would issue orders pertaining to a unit within the Western Military District (WMD).[3] Milbloggers noted that relatives found half of the 15th Regiment personnel wounded in a Belgorod Oblast hospital after the unit got caught in heavy artillery fire when attempting to reach the Svatove frontline. Milbloggers noted that the regiment had no orders, military command supervision, signal, or supplies, and that the other half of its personnel is still at the Svatove frontline. Another milblogger noted witnessing the coffins of mobilized men arrive in Chelaybinsk, Moscow, and Yekaterenburg, and claimed that many mobilized men are surrendering to Ukrainian forces.[4] One Russian milblogger complained on October 13 that newly mobilized men are being deployed in a haphazard way that will lead to 10,000 deaths and 40,000 injuries among them by February 2023.[5]

Wow. Half a regiment in the hospital after being deployed with nothing.

Here’s the rest of the report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-13
 
The BBC article is a good description. But no one is saying whether the pipe opened up from the inside, or the outside. Looks like an inside job to me. But I'm not an expert and there's only one picture...
 
I read an article yesterday in Forbes, which I can’t access today due to the paywall (Ran through my free articles). The idea was that by blowing up the Kerch bridge, the Ukrainians have really cut very deeply into the Russians’ ability to support and resupply their troops in Kherson.

The Russians move a lot of supplies by rail, and don’t use as many trucks as the US Army, for example. The damage to the Kerch bridge severely hampers rail traffic on the bridge, and that was the major supply route for Kherson.

The only other direct Russian-controlled rail route from Russia to Kherson runs through Zaporizhzhia province and cities like Mariupol and Melitopol. That’s part of the so-called “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea, and Kherson, and the Russians hoped eventually to Odessa. Some of that rail route is within range of Ukrainian missiles, as are a lot of the Russian forces and supply depots in the region.

The author, David Axe, expects that Ukraine may attempt a third counterattack from the north down to the Black Sea coast to cut that route. He thinks that front is poorly defended, and the rear positions are being hit pretty hard, so it’s ripe for taking it Ukraine has the forces to spare.

If the Ukrainians can cut that route, then the Russian forces in Kherson will be completely bereft of support, and could collapse.

Let’s hope they can do it. I’d love to see Ukraine go into winter in a better position.
 
Russia is beginning forced/coerced evacuations of civilians from Kherson City. They are moving everyone out of the city to the east bank of the Dnipro, and it may be a prelude to Ukraine retaking the West Bank of the river.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/europe/ukraine-russia-kherson-intl/index.html
Evacuating civilians worries me. Could this be a prelude hinting that Putin might be seriously contemplating using a tactical nuke to cover his withdrawal and also say, "If I can't have it no one can have it?"
 
Evacuating civilians worries me. Could this be a prelude hinting that Putin might be seriously contemplating using a tactical nuke to cover his withdrawal and also say, "If I can't have it no one can have it?"
Doubtful. It's just what Russia (and many others, to be fair) have done from time immemorial to attempt to legitimize their claim to territory: Deport the natives and import your own people. It's how the Russian Empire originally dealt with the Tartars when the Czar took over Crimea, and why the German-built city of Koenigsburg is now called Kaliningrad.
 
Evacuating civilians worries me. Could this be a prelude hinting that Putin might be seriously contemplating using a tactical nuke to cover his withdrawal and also say, "If I can't have it no one can have it?"
My initial thoughts were forced relocation to interior Russia very quickly followed by human shields. I guess I assume the worst of Putin.
 
Doubtful. It's just what Russia (and many others, to be fair) have done from time immemorial to attempt to legitimize their claim to territory: Deport the natives and import your own people. It's how the Russian Empire originally dealt with the Tartars when the Czar took over Crimea, and why the German-built city of Koenigsburg is now called Kaliningrad.
Understood. The tactic was ancient long before that. This was the background behind the Babylonian captivity of Israel in 722 to 538 BCE and it wasn't new then.
 
Doubtful. It's just what Russia (and many others, to be fair) have done from time immemorial to attempt to legitimize their claim to territory: Deport the natives and import your own people. It's how the Russian Empire originally dealt with the Tartars when the Czar took over Crimea, and why the German-built city of Koenigsburg is now called Kaliningrad.
They may also just be evacuating the Russians they imported to fill up the city. More ominously, they are nominally also requiring children to evacuate. A whole lot of kids were "evacuated" earlier in the war, sent to Russia, and adopted to Russian families regardless of whether they still had parents living. Whatever peace comes of this should require that those kids be returned to their families.
 
In other news, one of the major political parties on this side of the pond is now saying that the checks/supplies for Ukraine will end or be substantially reduced after the midterms if they have anything to say about it. That's probably about all I can say here without derailing the thread into politics. If you're interested, go look it up--it won't be hard to find.
 
A whole lot of kids were "evacuated" earlier in the war, sent to Russia, and adopted to Russian families regardless of whether they still had parents living.
At least that's what Pravda wants you to believe. Adoption isn't really culturally supported in Russia. We adopted twins from Vladivostok and people, even doctors, asked us point blank, "why would you want someone else's children?" I don't know where these kids went, but my experience makes me skeptical of the "adoption" story.
 
Last edited:
Evacuating civilians worries me. Could this be a prelude hinting that Putin might be seriously contemplating using a tactical nuke to cover his withdrawal and also say, "If I can't have it no one can have it?"

I don’t think so. It’s a form of ethnic cleansing they’ve been practicing throughout this war and in their past.

But I also think it means they are getting ready to give up on Kherson City, and forcing the citizens out will make it harder to rebuild and recover.
 
I could easily be wrong, but I imagine the Russians are evacuating civilians because they mean to have reinforcements and an almighty battle for the city.

I don’t think so. I think they know the West Bank of the Dnipro is lost, and they are getting ready to withdraw, not reinforce and fight. They know they can’t hold the West Bank, and they don’t want another total rout like in Kharkiv, so they are getting ready to pull out to the East Bank in an organized way.

I also think the Russians might blow some dams upriver from Kherson City, causing a flooding disaster. They’ve been claiming Ukraine is going to blow them, and the Russians have a record of blaming their opponents in advance for things they themselves plan to do, so this may be another example of that.
 
The energy situation in Europe is not as bad as previously feared.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ation-is-not-as-terrible-as-you-might-expect/

That‘s good news.

I wonder how many times the US and our allies are going to need to get kicked in the ass before we realize we need to get off of foreign fossil fuels for good so we aren’t always relying on enemies, adversaries, and unreliable partners for energy. It’s a national security issue. I’m so sick of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuelan, etc., bending us over the oil barrel and having their way with our hindquarters. So much of our foreign policy is hostage to our need for foreign energy. This war is another example of how that can put us in a bad position.
 
That‘s good news.

I wonder how many times the US and our allies are going to need to get kicked in the ass before we realize we need to get off of foreign fossil fuels for good so we aren’t always relying on enemies, adversaries, and unreliable partners for energy. It’s a national security issue. I’m so sick of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuelan, etc., bending us over the oil barrel and having their way with our hindquarters. So much of our foreign policy is hostage to our need for foreign energy. This war is another example of how that can put us in a bad position.
In that line of thought, here's an article I came accross recently.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/22/solar-power-plants-are-more-missile-resistant/
 
Back
Top