Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

Peartree

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LOL . You "experts' don't know the first thing about me. Your being snowed by the lame stream media.
Mike

You make the same sort of broad assumptions about the people with whom you disagree and you similarly assume that we are watching the American "lame-stream" media. Feel free to corroborate your sources from any international news service (unless you assume that every news service, and every international blogger, and every Ukrainian YouTuber, is similarly corrupt and ONLY the one source that you watch can be trusted). I know that I am not alone on this forum in that I rarely watch American news services in regard to the war in Ukraine. I find that any American news tends to be two or three days behind so I watch/read reports from actual Ukrainians, the BBC, Al Jazeera, and other international sources (including, occasionally, Russia) from a variety of ideological backgrounds.

Oh, and of course Ukraine is corrupt. Who isn't any more? Our own government is corrupt more often than we care to admit. I don't think that anyone is ignoring the fact that Ukraine is far from perfect. But they have come a long way since the fall of the Iron Curtain and they are an ally in the region, and they are a buffer between a hostile nation (or two) and the rest of our European allies. I think everyone, including Ukraine, has their eyes wide open and understands that we are using them just as much as they are using us.
 

boatgeek

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Instead of fleeing the country they should be getting rid of Putin. I saw that about 200,000 men have fled or are trying to. Also the Ukrainians are taking a lot of prisoners.
I think it's instructive that the people protesting and/or fleeing Russia now are only doing so when their own/their children's lives are potentially threatened. When Russia was invading Ukraine and murdering/torturing other people, they didn't really care enough to protest. It makes me feel a little less kindly toward them in terms of giving refugee status. But maybe I'm just a jerk.

In other news, someone managed to prank call Peskov's son and tell him that he was being called up for the draft. He responded that no, no, that wouldn't be appropriate, and did they know who his father was? Daddy would sort all of that out. To save a lookup, Peskov is Putin press secretary. So it seems that the US draft avoidance strategies from Vietnam are well-established in Russia.
 

afadeev

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LOL . You "experts' don't know the first thing about me. Your being snowed by the lame stream media.

Looks like:
1). You are about to reveal yourself
2). Do you have a better alternative to what you call "lame stream media"? What are you watching?

It's easy to criticize, it's much harder to offer constructive suggestions.

If you think that pouring more money into this mess , I feel for you. All this money is being distributed by the state department. Just another clueless bloated goverment entity.

Actually, no, Pentagon runs the spot on the military aid.
I do, suppose, that doesn't change your opinion that it's "another clueless bloated goverment entity", does it?
Do you have a suggestion for what organization would do a better job of aiding Ukraine in defeating Russia?

Funny you fools think that posting your BS here is winning that so called war.

Kewl for you - went straight for ad hominem attacks. Thanks for elaborating on point #1 above.
That's a reliable way to forfeit an argument in an intelligent company.

Ukraine is just another corrupt country taking our money and we just sit back and watch and let it happen .

I wonder what in the world Ukrainians are doing with "our money" that we are not actually sending to them (US is sending military gear).
Hmmmm, that's a tough one.
Really hard to figure out.
If only someone in the news media (lame or otherwise) were to offer some reporting from that part of the world to help us determine what Ukrainians are doing with all that military aid ...
 

CalebJ

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I think it's instructive that the people protesting and/or fleeing Russia now are only doing so when their own/their children's lives are potentially threatened. When Russia was invading Ukraine and murdering/torturing other people, they didn't really care enough to protest. It makes me feel a little less kindly toward them in terms of giving refugee status. But maybe I'm just a jerk.
It's possible (and I suspect likely) that those fleeing now were unaware of the details of the invasion such as murder/torture and even that it was anything but a moral imperative to defend Russians in territory held by Ukraine (as presented by state media).
 

boatgeek

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I wonder what in the world Ukrainians are doing with "our money" that we are not actually sending to them (US is sending military gear).
Hmmmm, that's a tough one.
Really hard to figure out.
If only someone in the news media (lame or otherwise) were to offer some reporting from that part of the world to help us determine what Ukrainians are doing with all that military aid ...
Also worth pointing out that a LOT of what the US is providing is obsolete gear that we have retired and were getting ready to send to the military equivalent of the thrift store. There's a nominal price tag associated with it (aka the "value" you put on your tax receipt at Goodwill), but there's very little actual value in that equipment. That doesn't include a few items like HIMARS or ammunition. However, we also get a lot of value of seeing our current equipment in use in combat so we see capabilities, limitations, and workarounds that we never thought of.
 

boatgeek

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It's possible (and I suspect likely) that those fleeing now were unaware of the details of the invasion such as murder/torture and even that it was anything but a moral imperative to defend Russians in territory held by Ukraine (as presented by state media).
That is a good way to think of it. I try to assume positive intent, but it's kind of tough at times. I do have to remember that not everyone in Russia is like the parent who posted something like "We need to throw more troops at Ukraine to win, but not my kid!"
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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An Ukraine update from DW. Seems the Ukrainians are pushing towards Kherson.



Good news!

The Kherson counteroffensive has been something I’ve been anticipating since the summer. Ukraine has been hollowing out the Russian rear in the area for months, but had not made many territorial gains so far along the front, and then that campaign was completely overshadowed by Kharkiv and the dramatic collapse of the Russian forces there. Finally the Ukrainians are taking back territory. It’s a different battlefield, so it will probably play out differently, but I think Kherson could become another rout for Russia.
 

afadeev

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The Kherson counteroffensive has been something I’ve been anticipating since the summer. Ukraine has been hollowing out the Russian rear in the area for months, but had not made many territorial gains so far along the front, and then that campaign was completely overshadowed by Kharkiv and the dramatic collapse of the Russian forces there. Finally the Ukrainians are taking back territory. It’s a different battlefield, so it will probably play out differently, but I think Kherson could become another rout for Russia.

Yeah, there is a major rout of Russian forces around Kherson underway.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukraine seams to have retaken about 1/3 of the territory Russians were controlling north of the river.
The last time I looked, there were ~25K of Russia's best equipped and battle-hardened forces defending that area. We may soon find out how many of them know how to swim.

1664900293795.png
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Funny you fools think that posting your BS here is winning that so called war.

Hold up… Are you saying my posts aren’t winning the war? Crap! I thought for sure my posts were the one thing making all the difference!

Well, whatever it is — my posts, the Ukrainian military, Russian incompetence, aid to Ukraine — something is making a difference. Ukraine is on its way to winning this war. And Russia is on its way to humiliation and defeat.
 

boatgeek

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Yeah, there is a major rout of Russian forces around Kherson underway.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukraine seams to have retaken about 1/3 of the territory Russians were controlling north of the river.
The last time I looked, there were ~25K of Russia's best equipped and battle-hardened forces defending that area. We may soon find out how many of them know how to swim.

View attachment 540419
I'm kind of gobsmacked by reports that Ukraine is encouraging Russian forces to retreat by taking advantage of the Russians' lack of military-grade radios. Due to a lack of equipment, the Russians are often using commercial grade radios not far off of the walkie-talkies you can buy at Walmart. Russia also often communicates in the clear (ie no code words/phrases). Ukraine has been taking advantage of that by issuing a lot of fake orders in rapid fire and then jamming the radios so that no signals get through. Also, when one unit hears that Ukraine is advancing and the Russians next door need reinforcement, then the radio goes dead, that unit is far more likely to pick up stakes and retreat in case they're next.
 

afadeev

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Hold up… Are you saying my posts aren’t winning the war? Crap! I thought for sure my posts were the one thing making all the difference!

Well, whatever it is — my posts, the Ukrainian military, Russian incompetence, aid to Ukraine — something is making a difference. Ukraine is on its way to winning this war. And Russia is on its way to humiliation and defeat.
It must be all the posts.
I see direct positive correlation between the start of this thread, and the degradation of Russian military capacity for invasion of neighbors, rape, plunder, and murder.

I say keep posting (yeah, yeah, correlation vs. causation)!
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Yeah, there is a major rout of Russian forces around Kherson underway.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukraine seams to have retaken about 1/3 of the territory Russians were controlling north of the river.
The last time I looked, there were ~25K of Russia's best equipped and battle-hardened forces defending that area. We may soon find out how many of them know how to swim.

View attachment 540419

It seems like the Russians may get pushed out of the western side of the river. Hopefully a large number are captured.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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It must be all the posts.
I see direct positive correlation between the start of this thread, and the degradation of Russian military capacity for invasion of neighbors, rape, plunder, and murder.

I say keep posting (yeah, yeah, correlation vs. causation)!

I am pleased to announce I will be contributing an additional $12 billion in posts for Ukraine, and that’s on top of the $50 billion I’ve already donated! I’m in it for the long haul!
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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LOL. Just what has 54 Billion gotten us? Not a freaking thing. This is just another money pit, just like Nam. and Afghanistan.

How much money to you suppose Russia has wasted on this war? All those thousands of destroyed tanks, vehicles, and other equipment. And all the equipment just abandoned by Russia for Ukraine to haul away and use. The expended ammo that they can’t replace. All the shot-down planes and helicopters. How about the sunken ships! Ouch! That must cost a lot! Plus there’s all the lives lost or ruined. Russia’s going to be paying benefits to thousands and thousands of disabled vets for the rest of their lives. That’s going to add up. Or maybe they won’t pay. They probably won’t have any money after this whole thing is over. Bankruptcy and ruin!
 

Greg Furtman

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How much money to you suppose Russia has wasted on this war? All those thousands of destroyed tanks, vehicles, and other equipment. And all the equipment just abandoned by Russia for Ukraine to haul away and use. The expended ammo that they can’t replace. All the shot-down planes and helicopters. How about the sunken ships! Ouch! That must cost a lot! Plus there’s all the lives lost or ruined. Russia’s going to be paying benefits to thousands and thousands of disabled vets for the rest of their lives. That’s going to add up. Or maybe they won’t pay. They probably won’t have any money after this whole thing is over. Bankruptcy and ruin!
 

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ThirstyBarbarian

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This is why Ukraine needs to regain Mariupol. They need the industrial capacity to melt down all the scrap! Thousands and thousands of tons of junked Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, personnel carriers, trucks, artillery pieces, planes, and helicopters. So. Much. Scrap!
 

Peartree

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How much money to you suppose Russia has wasted on this war? All those thousands of destroyed tanks, vehicles, and other equipment. And all the equipment just abandoned by Russia for Ukraine to haul away and use. The expended ammo that they can’t replace. All the shot-down planes and helicopters. How about the sunken ships! Ouch! That must cost a lot! Plus there’s all the lives lost or ruined. Russia’s going to be paying benefits to thousands and thousands of disabled vets for the rest of their lives. That’s going to add up. Or maybe they won’t pay. They probably won’t have any money after this whole thing is over. Bankruptcy and ruin!

And, as we saw in WW2, Germany and Japan simply could not train pilots as fast as they were losing them, and the allies had to significantly ramp up the way in which, and the number of bases we used, to train pilots. The equation is even worse in the jet age for both planes and pilots. It takes a long time to train a jet pilot or a helicopter pilot. The new conscripts are being sent to the front with two days worth of training, and while that is obviously not enough for an infantry soldier, training a pilot can take a year or more (the pilots here canan provide specifics). Heck, my warehouse training as a supply clerk took eight weeks and my training to drive forklifts took five or six weeks, in addition to the eight weeks of basic training and a whole lot of OJT. With the losses Russia has had, they have to be experiencing some impossible manpower problems. You might be tempted to laugh at eight weeks of training for a supply clerk, but you wouldn't be laughing if you requisitioned bullets, fuel, and uniforms and can't get any.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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And, as we saw in WW2, Germany and Japan simply could not train pilots as fast as they were losing them, and the allies had to significantly ramp up the way in which, and the number of bases we used, to train pilots. The equation is even worse in the jet age for both planes and pilots. It takes a long time to train a jet pilot or a helicopter pilot. The new conscripts are being sent to the front with two days worth of training, and while that is obviously not enough for an infantry soldier, training a pilot can take a year or more (the pilots here canan provide specifics). Heck, my warehouse training as a supply clerk took eight weeks and my training to drive forklifts took five or six weeks, in addition to the eight weeks of basic training and a whole lot of OJT. With the losses Russia has had, they have to be experiencing some impossible manpower problems. You might be tempted to laugh at eight weeks of training for a supply clerk, but you wouldn't be laughing if you requisitioned bullets, fuel, and uniforms and can't get any.

They can’t regenerate the lost equipment and supplies, and they definitely can’t regenerate the lost manpower. As you said, it takes time and training. Even driving a truck takes training. Imagine driving a tank, and not just driving it, but working as a crew in combat and coordinating with other tanks and other forces. It’s hopeless for them.

Imagine what Russian commanders in Ukraine are dealing with right now. From the rear, they are getting a bunch of untrained, unconditioned, inexperienced, scared, unmotivated troops from the mobilization. And from the front, they are getting a stream of defeated, demoralized, injured, traumatized, hungry troops that have just been routed and abandoned their gear. It must be chaos. I think there is a chance they will just fall apart if Ukraine can keep the pressure on.
 

afadeev

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I think it's instructive that the people protesting and/or fleeing Russia now are only doing so when their own/their children's lives are potentially threatened. When Russia was invading Ukraine and murdering/torturing other people, they didn't really care enough to protest. It makes me feel a little less kindly toward them in terms of giving refugee status. But maybe I'm just a jerk.

I was nurturing similar sentiments, but they weren't strong enough to put in writing.
There seams to be an awful lot of Russians willing and able to flee the draft, but a dearth of them willing to protest against their government that started the war with Ukraine and initiated the draft in the first place. Basically, most Russians are still pro-war, but anti-putting their own ass on the line. I'm not too sympathetic to that sentiment.

Perhaps, that's why Finland, Poland, and other (but not all) European countries are closing their borders to Russian draft dodgers. Too many of those folks who want to avoid serving in the Russian military, are still actively cheering for its imperial war of aggression.

The problem with Russia is not just Putin. He is just a symptom of a generation of post-Soviet anti-American/anti-Western revanchism, hatred, and propaganda. Too many Russians genuinely believe that invading their neighbors and liberating them from "Fascist Democracies" is the right thing to do. Not all, but enough for it to continue to be a problem even if Putin were to fall victim to a gravity attack tomorrow.

The only way this war ends is if/when Russians in general, and Russian military in particular, rise against the current idiotic war-thirsty regime.
The chaotic mobilization helps, in that regard.
Allowing frustrated Russians to escape it (vs. fighting against it by all means necessary), doesn't help:


a
 

boatgeek

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And, as we saw in WW2, Germany and Japan simply could not train pilots as fast as they were losing them, and the allies had to significantly ramp up the way in which, and the number of bases we used, to train pilots. The equation is even worse in the jet age for both planes and pilots. It takes a long time to train a jet pilot or a helicopter pilot. The new conscripts are being sent to the front with two days worth of training, and while that is obviously not enough for an infantry soldier, training a pilot can take a year or more (the pilots here canan provide specifics). Heck, my warehouse training as a supply clerk took eight weeks and my training to drive forklifts took five or six weeks, in addition to the eight weeks of basic training and a whole lot of OJT. With the losses Russia has had, they have to be experiencing some impossible manpower problems. You might be tempted to laugh at eight weeks of training for a supply clerk, but you wouldn't be laughing if you requisitioned bullets, fuel, and uniforms and can't get any.

They can’t regenerate the lost equipment and supplies, and they definitely can’t regenerate the lost manpower. As you said, it takes time and training. Even driving a truck takes training. Imagine driving a tank, and not just driving it, but working as a crew in combat and coordinating with other tanks and other forces. It’s hopeless for them.

Imagine what Russian commanders in Ukraine are dealing with right now. From the rear, they are getting a bunch of untrained, unconditioned, inexperienced, scared, unmotivated troops from the mobilization. And from the front, they are getting a stream of defeated, demoralized, injured, traumatized, hungry troops that have just been routed and abandoned their gear. It must be chaos. I think there is a chance they will just fall apart if Ukraine can keep the pressure on.
I'm reminded of visiting Seattle's Museum of Flight with my grandfather, who piloted B-24s in WWII. At least 5 of the planes in the big gallery (not even the WWII one) were steps in his path to getting rated as a 4-engine pilot. That took years, in wartime, when there was a critical pilot shortage.

Fundamentally, there's no new pilots coming into this war. Either they were trained (or nearly so) already, or they're going to come out of training after the conflict is over.
 

techrat

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Basically, most Russians are still pro-war, but anti-putting their own ass on the line. I'm not too sympathetic to that sentiment.
But, didn't you hear? Russia is the good guys!! Russia is "liberating" Ukraine from evil Nazis. Or at least, that the official word from Russian media. That's what Putin says, and why would he lie?

It's easy from our perspective to think that Russians are self-interested, lazy, greedy bastards who don't care, but they are being fed a steady stream of propaganda. Think about how many Americans honestly believe that the 2016 election here in the USA was "stolen". And why do they believe that? Because the media they watch is telling them that. And they won't believe the other media because "lame stream media lies", even though news sources outside of the USA, who have no interest in the outcome of our elections have also verified that there were no abberations, but never mind.

Once you get it in your head that the sky is green and the grass is pink, no amount of evidence is going to convince you of otherwise.
 

Steve Shannon

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But, didn't you hear? Russia is the good guys!! Russia is "liberating" Ukraine from evil Nazis. Or at least, that the official word from Russian media. That's what Putin says, and why would he lie?

It's easy from our perspective to think that Russians are self-interested, lazy, greedy bastards who don't care, but they are being fed a steady stream of propaganda. Think about how many Americans honestly believe that the 2016 election here in the USA was "stolen". And why do they believe that? Because the media they watch is telling them that. And they won't believe the other media because "lame stream media lies", even though news sources outside of the USA, who have no interest in the outcome of our elections have also verified that there were no abberations, but never mind.

Once you get it in your head that the sky is green and the grass is pink, no amount of evidence is going to convince you of otherwise.
That’s the thing! If they believe that then they should be willing to enlist instead of fleeing. They can’t have it both ways. By fleeing they admit to knowing it’s a lie.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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It would be very ironic if Putin’s war to restore part of the lost Empire actually resulted in losing what’s left of it.

I guess there are republics within the Russian Federation who might want to secede if things go bad enough in this war, and if they are called on to sacrifice too much for it. It sounds like Russia is mobilizing troops mostly from the regions of the Federation that are not ethnically Russian. That’s Empire — using the resources of the vassal states for the benefit of the imperialist state.

Maybe the Ukraine war will end when Russia needs to pull its troops back home to fight against separatist republics trying to break away. That’s a pretty speculative scenario for sure, but it’s not impossible.
 

boatgeek

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It would be very ironic if Putin’s war to restore part of the lost Empire actually resulted in losing what’s left of it.

I guess there are republics within the Russian Federation who might want to secede if things go bad enough in this war, and if they are called on to sacrifice too much for it. It sounds like Russia is mobilizing troops mostly from the regions of the Federation that are not ethnically Russian. That’s Empire — using the resources of the vassal states for the benefit of the imperialist state.

Maybe the Ukraine war will end when Russia needs to pull its troops back home to fight against separatist republics trying to break away. That’s a pretty speculative scenario for sure, but it’s not impossible.
I'm sure that a whole bunch of former SSRs (Georgia and Moldova particularly) are looking at Russia's military woes and strategizing when they can take back "separatist areas" the seceded with Russia's help. Heck, Japan could theoretically get into the action since they have a disputed territory with Russia too.
 

techrat

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It would be very ironic if Putin’s war to restore part of the lost Empire actually resulted in losing what’s left of it.
Now that *everyone* knows that Russia has a weak military, you think land-hungry India and China are just going to sit there and do nothing? China is not above taking territories by force or other means. They seem to want Taiwan very badly, but my guess is that they will take land where they can get it.
 

smstachwick

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That’s the thing! If they believe that then they should be willing to enlist instead of fleeing. They can’t have it both ways. By fleeing they admit to knowing it’s a lie.
You can, in fact, have it both ways when working with large and diverse populations. Russia is not a monolith. Opinions there run the gamut like anywhere else.

The thing that we Westerners aren’t accustomed to, especially if we’re part of a privileged demographic, is free expression being somewhat akin to an extreme sport. Here when we say things that run counter to conventional viewpoint, usually people just let it slide or ignore it. Politeness isn’t usually worth disrupting. Most of the time we won’t even realize we’ve said something contentious. Less often we’ll have people openly disagreeing with varying degrees of passion and hostility. Occasionally we’re shown the door.

In Russia you either go to jail or fall out of a window.

So that’s why you have people who have taken all kinds of stances on the war being unified in fleeing it. The reasoning and opinions of a particular Russian draft dodger are likely to be influenced by a number of confluent factors and distinct from the next one you talk to.
 

Peartree

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Maybe the Ukraine war will end when Russia needs to pull its troops back home to fight against separatist republics trying to break away. That’s a pretty speculative scenario for sure, but it’s not impossible.
Not so speculative:

Our Children are not fertilizer: Protests in Chechnya and Dagestan should trouble Moscow

The withdrawal of Russian forces from a strategically important town in eastern Ukraine has prompted two powerful allies of President Vladimir Putin to do something rare in modern Russia: publicly ridicule the war machine's top brass.

Russia's loss of the bastion of Lyman, which puts western parts of Luhansk region under threat, touched a nerve for Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya.
Kadyrov, who has been close to Putin since his father and former president of Chechnya, Akhmad, was killed in a 2004 bomb attack in Grozny that also killed a Reuters photographer, suggested that Russia should consider using a small tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine in response to the loss.

The nuclear warning caught the headlines, but his public scorn for Russia's top generals may have been just as significant in a Russia where public criticism of the war effort from within the top echelons of the elite has been taboo.

"Nepotism in the army will lead to no good," Kadyrov said, adding that the commander of Russian forces in the area should be stripped of his medals and sent to the front line with a gun to wash away his shame with blood.

Such public contempt for the generals running Russia's war is significant because it indicates the level of frustration within Putin's elite over the conduct of the war while also piercing the Kremlin's carefully controlled narrative.
Full article here: Russia's War Machine Faces Criticism from Two Putin Allies
 

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Driving home from University tonight I heard an interesting comment on the car radio. The interviewee said that Russia currently holds less of Ukraine than at the end of the first week of the war. If true, it gives a good indication of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strategy.
 
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