Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

ThirstyBarbarian

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The idiots just announced " tougher sanctions" just what the heck were the first ones all about that were supposed to bring Russia to their knees in months? Wake up.
Mike

Is that the question you want answered? The earlier sanctions were not ever represented as something that would “bring Russia to their knees in months“. Where did you get that idea?

When they were announced, the allies participating in the sanctions explicitly said sanctions would not stop the war or force an end to it. Only Russia could stop the war. The sanctions would impose a cost and bring pressure on Russia to choose to stop the war.

The other thing the sanctions have done has been to make it almost impossible for Russia to replenish and repair lost military equipment and weapons. Modern weapons, equipment and even ammo all rely on electronics that Russia can’t get due to sanctions. So sanctions have cut into Russian force generation capabilities. They might keep fighting, but it’s going to be with old equipment and dumb weapons, not modern precision weapons. Eventually they will be fighting with knives and sticks.

Ukraine is winning the force generation war. Ukraine now has more troops, more tanks, more ammo, and more supplies on the battlefield than Russia. They also have better morale and better commanders. Ukraine is getting stronger, Russia is getting weaker. Sanctions have been part of that by hampering Russia’s ability to generate equipment and weapons. And aid has been part of it by boosting Ukraine’s ability to generate equipment, weapons, ammo, and personnel. They boost Ukrainian morale and demoralizes Russia.

Ukraine is on the way to winning this war, and our sanctions and aid are making it possible.
 

Funkworks

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Since Russia is insistent on reclaiming former territories maybe Alaska will be on their list.
I actually don't want to discuss politics or geopolitics here in the TRF. All I would say here is that all important borders are constantly being monitored. But I don't think Putin cares much about Alaska. What I understand is he felt some kind of embarrassment following USSR collapse.

In USSR times, Moskow controlled Donbass resources and access to the Crimea.
In post-USSR times, Moskow did not control Donbass resources and access to the Crimea.

Putin sees that as a loss and that's what he wants Moskow to get back. Whether it's for Russian interests or his own may be another question.

Interesting that none of you answered my question.
Where would you like the allied border to be? Eastern Atlantic? Western Ukraine? Eastern Ukraine?
🥱 ... 😴 ...💤
 
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ThirstyBarbarian

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Excellent!

It sounds like most of the Russians withdrew. I thought the Ukrainians might actually encircle and capture most of them. I wonder how many they did capture and how many surrendered, or if they all got out. And did they leave behind vehicles, weapons, supplies, etc.

Even if there are no prisoners or captured materiel, this is a big victory. It’s a strategic victory and a symbolic one.
 

Greg Furtman

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Excellent!

It sounds like most of the Russians withdrew. I thought the Ukrainians might actually encircle and capture most of them. I wonder how many they did capture and how many surrendered, or if they all got out. And did they leave behind vehicles, weapons, supplies, etc.

Even if there are no prisoners or captured materiel, this is a big victory. It’s a strategic victory and a symbolic one.
I wonder if the Russians bugged out and left a lot of weapons behind like they did last week? I haven't seen much about the actual battle.
 

afadeev

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I wonder if the Russians bugged out and left a lot of weapons behind like they did last week? I haven't seen much about the actual battle.
Looks like the fighting around that Lyman town has been long and hard, with a LOT more equipment destroyed and Russian soldiers killed than during the earlier rout. I had clicked on a few British (Times Radio) and German (DW) reports in the past, and get lots more of those in my YouTube feed. Some of them are linked below, with video reports of significant death and destruction from that area:





As another data point, Ukrainian military keeps a running tab of claimed losses by the Russians.
I don't know how accurate it is (the totals seam to be similar to those I heard reported by the British), but the few times I saw it, they were reporting daily Russian losses in the 50-150 range. The last few days, it's been 500+ range:
1664734189857.png

I'm not clicking on or linking here the super-gory videos, but this channel provides in-depth overview of the most recent battlefield developments:




HTH,
a
 
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afadeev

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LOL. Just what has 54 Billion gotten us? Not a freaking thing.

Really?
How about:
  • Stop Russian aggression before it engulfs other parts of Europe, including NATO countries.
  • Avoid getting the US dragged into a war with Russia when it, inevitably, attacks a NATO country (if it were to subdue Ukraine).
  • Protect US-led international rules order where belligerents don't get to start wars of aggression and invade neighbors and US allies without recourse.
  • Actively degrade Russian military to the point where they will not be a threat to anyone, within another 6-18 months of getting slaughtered in Ukraine. Disarming a rabidly anti-American foe is a very good thing for the US, indeed.
  • If this whole Russian boondoggle leads to a collapse of the anti-American Putin regime, that would be pure gravy.
    • Any that would be WAY more than anyone had realistically expected at the start of the war of Russian aggression.
    • Remember we were talking of arming Ukrainians just enough to annoy the Russians at the start of the war? Now we are arming them to end the Russians as a threat!
  • Send a super-strong signal to China, Iran, and North Korea, illustrating what will happen to them if they go for a land grab of their own.
Basically, we are keeping assholes in check.

If any of the above are important to you, this has been a hack of a good deal for the US.
If you don't care about any of the above, or are aligned with Russian interests (for whatever reason) then I guess it's a terrible thing. If you fall in the latter category, you will be expected to work to undermine the US. But what's the upside to that?

This is just another money pit, just like Nam. and Afghanistan.

Big difference between 'Nam and 'Stan vs. Ukraine in that there are no US troops fighting nor taking casualties in Ukraine.
That, and we are winning.

The idiots just announced " tougher sanctions" just what the heck were the first ones all about that were supposed to bring Russia to their knees in months?

I'm sorry, where exactly did you get that sanctions were going to "bring Russia to their knees in months"?
I've never heard of such an expectation. If you got it from some legitimate US government source, please do share.

For references, sanctions against the old Soviet Union took about two (2) generations (~43 years) to degrade it into economic twilight and bankruptcy. But degrade it they did. And it not only went bankrupt, but ceased to exist. It wasn't cheap nor easy, but it was an undeniably positive outcome for the US.
Economic sanctions against North Korea, Iran, and Cuba have been on-again/off-again for decades. None of these have keeled over yet, but neither are they prospering nor seriously threatening the US, either.

Economic sanctions are a containment measure, not an active intervention that produced results in the near term.
Always have been. Always will be.

Wake up.
[...]
Interesting that none of you answered my question.
Mike

Mike, we have been wide awake on this thread for the last 8 months.
You are welcome to join us.
I trust that the above helped to constructively advance our dialog.

a
 
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afadeev

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Have we extended MAD policy to a WMD attack on the Ukraine? Maybe I missed that.
No, why would we.

Is that something that you would like to advocate for?
If yes, what's your argument?
If no, then why worry about something that is on no-one's to do list?

We are not protecting 44 million Ukrainians from WMD attack without MAD.

Nope.
And that seams to be fine by the them, and a non-issue for us.
Plenty of other tools at our disposal to discourage Russians from using WMD, or penalizing them if they would, without reciprocating in kind.

What's your point?
 
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smstachwick

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LOL. Just what has 54 Billion gotten us? Not a freaking thing. This is just another money pit, just like Nam. and Afghanistan. The idiots just announced " tougher sanctions" just what the heck were the first ones all about that were supposed to bring Russia to their knees in months? Wake up.
Mike
Sanctions are tricky things. Unilaterally, they won’t do much. They require international cooperation and negotiation between sanctioning parties to have measurable effects, and they must be implemented strategically.

It’s one thing to say “nothing in or out of Russia” and another thing to actually implement and enforce that. Neighboring countries may be reluctant to comply out of fear or loyalty, big companies may balk at losing a market, and Russia may try to trade with willing or desperate partners anyway. Then there is the wonderful world of e-commerce and banking to try to intercept and contain. The most unstoppable things going in and out of Russia currently may be the products of the Information Age.

Progress is being made, but it takes time and problem-solving to bring maximum effect to bear.

Even fully successful containment won’t stop Russia from using what it already has at its disposal. We saw this with Iran and North Korea. But at least the latter two aren’t trying to marching their armies of darkness all over the face of the earth, and the Russians are finding it impossible to defend the conquered territories.
 
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Greg Furtman

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Looks like the fighting around that Lyman town has been long and hard, with a LOT more equipment destroyed and Russian soldiers killed than during the earlier rout. I had clicked on a few British (Times Radio) and German (DW) reports in the past, and get lots more of those in my YouTube feed. Some of them are linked below, with video reports of significant death and destruction from that area:





As another data point, Ukrainian military keeps a running tab of claimed losses by the Russians.
I don't know how accurate it is (the totals seam to be similar to those I heard reported by the British), but the few times I saw it, they were reporting daily Russian losses in the 50-150 range. The last few days, it's been 500+ range:
View attachment 540163

I'm not clicking or linking super-gory videos, but this channel provides in-depth overview of the most recent battlefield developments:




HTH,
a

Thanks!
 

TSMILLER

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Is that a Russian protester or helping a Ukrainian vote for the annexation?
I could be either! What it is actually is a Russian protester. The caption was something like “It takes a dozen heavily armored policia to arrest 60 something Babushka!”
Copied from Mrs telegram channel. I didn’t get the whole thing copied.
 

MikeT

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Really?
How about:
  • Stop Russian aggression before it engulfs other parts of Europe, including NATO countries.
  • Avoid getting the US dragged into a war with Russia when it, inevitably, attacks a NATO country (if it were to subdue Ukraine).
  • Protect US-led international rules order where belligerents don't get to start wars of aggression and invade neighbors and US allies without recourse.
  • Actively degrade Russian military to the point where they will not be a threat to anyone, within another 6-18 months of getting slaughtered in Ukraine. Disarming a rabidly anti-American foe is a very good thing for the US, indeed.
  • If this whole Russian boondoggle leads to a collapse of the anti-American Putin regime, that would be pure gravy.
    • Any that would be WAY more than anyone had realistically expected at the start of the war of Russian aggression.
    • Remember we were talking of arming Ukrainians just enough to annoy the Russians at the start of the war? Now we are arming them to end the Russians as a threat!
  • Send a super-strong signal to China, Iran, and North Korea, illustrating what will happen to them if they go for a land grab of their own.
Basically, we are keeping assholes in check.

If any of the above are important to you, this has been a hack of a good deal for the US.
If you don't care about any of the above, or are aligned with Russian interests (for whatever reason) then I guess it's a terrible thing. If you fall in the latter category, you will be expected to work to undermine the US. But what's the upside to that?



Big difference between 'Nam and 'Stan vs. Ukraine in that there are no US troops fighting nor taking casualties in Ukraine.
That, and we are winning.



I'm sorry, where exactly did you get that sanctions were going to "bring Russia to their knees in months"?
I've never heard of such an expectation. If you got it from some legitimate US government source, please do share.

For references, sanctions against the old Soviet Union took about two (2) generations (~43 years) to degrade it into economic twilight and bankruptcy. But degrade it they did. And it not only went bankrupt, but ceased to exist. It wasn't cheap nor easy, but it was an undeniably positive outcome for the US.
Economic sanctions against North Korea, Iran, and Cuba have been on-again/off-again for decades. None of these have keeled over yet, but neither are they prospering nor seriously threatening the US, either.

Economic sanctions are a containment measure, not an active intervention that produced results in the near term.
Always have been. Always will be.



Mike, we have been wide awake on this thread for the last 8 months.
You are welcome to join us.
I trust that the above helped to constructively advance our dialog.

a
"Wide awake for the last 8 months" and still haven't learned a thing.

Mike
 

Antares JS

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"Wide awake for the last 8 months" and still haven't learned a thing.

Mike
So what is the point you are trying to make? Your last few posts on this thread have added nothing substantial to the discussion. You have merely spouted vague mockery of those of use who are pro-Ukraine.

Put up or shut up. Make your point or go away.
 

rharshberger

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So what is the point you are trying to make? Your last few posts on this thread have added nothing substantial to the discussion. You have merely spouted vague mockery of those of use who are pro-Ukraine.

Put up or shut up. Make your point or go away.
He is also decidely anti-support of democratic countries fending off commie aggression with our (USA/NATO) help.
 

smstachwick

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He is also decidely anti-support of democratic countries fending off commie aggression with our (USA/NATO) help.
One minor thing here: Russia abandoned its ostensibly communist system 30 years ago and currently operates as a federal semi-presidential republic under a personalist dictatorship with no hint of its former theoretical framework.

“Minor” because life hasn’t really improved for those kept under Russia’s thumb.
 

rharshberger

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One minor thing here: Russia abandoned its ostensibly communist system 30 years ago and currently operates as a federal semi-presidential republic under a personalist dictatorship with no hint of its former theoretical framework.

“Minor” because life hasn’t really improved for those kept under Russia’s thumb.
The names have changed...the goverment still functions pretty close to what it was...

Russia just added a bit more international business into the mix since the "fall" of the USSR, I hesitate to say capitalism because its all pretty much government controlled or government crony controlled.

Back to the war in Ukraine.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Since the partial mobilization was announced, which group do you think has been more mobilized?

Have more reservists and new conscripts been mobilized into the military? Or have more citizens trying to avoid that fate been “mobilized“ to flee Russia?

The goal was to get 300,000 more troops, but it sounds like at least 200,000 people have already left the country. Have 200,000 been added to the military as quickly? It’s kind of a race.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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I am starting to understand some of the motivations for formally annexing the four territories. It has a lot to do with the mobilization problems Russia is having. For one thing, it is technically illegal in Russia to send conscripts to a foreign war. Conscripts have successfully fought their deployments through the legal system. By annexing these territories, the fighting there would no longer be a foreign war, so that frees up a lot of conscripts to be sent into these territories to fight.

Also, if Russia declares the citizens of these territories to be Russian citizens, then those citizens can also be conscripted. These two things make it possible to force more people to fight against their will.

My advice to anyone forced to fight in Ukraine under these terms: Shoot your officers and surrender yourself and your equipment to Ukraine.
 

teepot

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I have said this before. The fight between Putin and Ukraine is a fight between good and evil. If Putin had taken Ukraine he could hold most of the world hostage with food since 20220319_120219[398].jpg Ukraine is the worlds largest producer of grain. Then there is also oil under the Donbas. It is clear cut to a lot of the world that this a fight between right and wrong. I have a rocket I named Glory to Ukraine. Flies good too.
 

georgegassaway

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"Russians Are Breaking Their Arms and Legs to Avoid Putin’s Draft"​



Putin has called for the conscription of 300,000 more young men as the invasion of Ukraine rages on. Thousands have fled or are attempting to, prompting government-imposed bans in certain areas preventing men between the ages of 18 and 35 from leaving. Those not lucky enough to secure a ticket on one of the many sold-out flights out of the country, or otherwise without a means of escape, are turning to drastic measures to avoid being sent to the frontlines.

Beyond the protests and mass emigration in response to Putin’s war in Ukraine and the recent draft, young men are now breaking their own bones to avoid going to war.

Videos have cropped up on Reddit and Twitter revealing the gruesome last-resort antics.......... [WARNING, the linked site shows such videos, NSFW]
----------------------------------

"Comrade, how did you break your leg?"

"Fell out of Window."

"Dah, is lot of falling out of windows lately."


To be more serious, it is terrible that people are taking such drastic measures. But the ones showing it on social media are not being very smart. The authorities can find out who they are, arrest them, and after healing "enough", force them to train and send them to the front as retribution.

.
 
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smstachwick

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"Russians Are Breaking Their Arms and Legs to Avoid Putin’s Draft"​



Putin has called for the conscription of 300,000 more young men as the invasion of Ukraine rages on. Thousands have fled or are attempting to, prompting government-imposed bans in certain areas preventing men between the ages of 18 and 35 from leaving. Those not lucky enough to secure a ticket on one of the many sold-out flights out of the country, or otherwise without a means of escape, are turning to drastic measures to avoid being sent to the frontlines.

Beyond the protests and mass emigration in response to Putin’s war in Ukraine and the recent draft, young men are now breaking their own bones to avoid going to war.

Videos have cropped up on Reddit and Twitter revealing the gruesome last-resort antics.......... [WARNING, the linked site shows such videos, NSFW]
----------------------------------

"Comrade, how did you break your leg?"

"Fell out of Window."

"Dah, is lot of falling out of windows lately."


To be more serious, it is terrible that people are taking such drastic measures. But the ones showing it on social media are not being very smart. The authorities can find out who they are, arrest them, and after healing "enough", force them to train and send them to the front as retribution.

.
Bravely risking life and limb for Ukraine.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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"Russians Are Breaking Their Arms and Legs to Avoid Putin’s Draft"​



Putin has called for the conscription of 300,000 more young men as the invasion of Ukraine rages on. Thousands have fled or are attempting to, prompting government-imposed bans in certain areas preventing men between the ages of 18 and 35 from leaving. Those not lucky enough to secure a ticket on one of the many sold-out flights out of the country, or otherwise without a means of escape, are turning to drastic measures to avoid being sent to the frontlines.

Beyond the protests and mass emigration in response to Putin’s war in Ukraine and the recent draft, young men are now breaking their own bones to avoid going to war.

Videos have cropped up on Reddit and Twitter revealing the gruesome last-resort antics.......... [WARNING, the linked site shows such videos, NSFW]
----------------------------------

"Comrade, how did you break your leg?"

"Fell out of Window."

"Dah, is lot of falling out of windows lately."


To be more serious, it is terrible that people are taking such drastic measures. But the ones showing it on social media are not being very smart. The authorities can find out who they are, arrest them, and after healing "enough", force them to train and send them to the front as retribution.

.

What a nightmare!
 

MikeT

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So what is the point you are trying to make? Your last few posts on this thread have added nothing substantial to the discussion. You have merely spouted vague mockery of those of use who are pro-Ukraine.

Put up or shut up. Make your point or go away.

He is also decidely anti-support of democratic countries fending off commie aggression with our (USA/NATO) help.

LOL . You "experts' don't know the first thing about me. Your being snowed by the lame stream media. If you think that pouring more money into this mess , I feel for you. All this money is being distributed by the state department. Just another clueless bloated goverment entity. Funny you fools think that posting your BS here is winning that so called war. Ukraine is just another corrupt country taking our money and we just sit back and watch and let it happen .
Mike
 

Antares JS

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LOL . You "experts' don't know the first thing about me. Your being snowed by the lame stream media. If you think that pouring more money into this mess , I feel for you. All this money is being distributed by the state department. Just another clueless bloated goverment entity. Funny you fools think that posting your BS here is winning that so called war. Ukraine is just another corrupt country taking our money and we just sit back and watch and let it happen .
Mike
More vagueness, mockery, along with assumptions that because mainstream media and the state department do bad things sometimes, they do bad things all the time, and saying that it's okay for Ukraine to be persecuted by Russia because their government has had problems with corruption.

You, sir, have earned my ignore. Have a nice life.
 
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