Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

Peartree

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Besides who would benefit, you have to ask who is able to do it? Where it was damaged, it was ~500meters below sea level and it was damaged with the equivalent of more than 200 pounds of TNT at each of the 3 locations. That would limit the actors to nation-states or large corporations that have the required knowledge and experience (Oil & Gas companies)

So limit by actors able to do it and who would benefit, the list becomes very small very quickly.
I was not aware of some of that, but would still object to limiting the discussion to who benefits. "Who might have a justifiable reason, in their own minds, to do so?" might better encompass the potential nuances. The reasons might be both subtle and convoluted. China might be on that list, if they thought it served their interests, for example. I agree that... probably... limits it to state actors, but there remain a number of nations who might wish to harm Russia or to serve political, or corporate, interests that may not be easily understood. While the US is certainly capable of inflicting the damage seen, I don't see the political or military will to do so in our present government.
 

Steve Shannon

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Besides who would benefit, you have to ask who is able to do it? Where it was damaged, it was ~500meters below sea level and it was damaged with the equivalent of more than 200 pounds of TNT at each of the 3 locations. That would limit the actors to nation-states or large corporations that have the required knowledge and experience (Oil & Gas companies)

So limit by actors able to do it and who would benefit, the list becomes very small very quickly.
I think a clever individual or group with knowledge of that line could put together an autonomous pig that would follow the pipeline (inside the pipe) and find a point in the pipe to do something.
I can only speculate what that something might be.
 

heada

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No doubt that a determined person or group, given access and funding, could do it but I think if we follow Occom's razor then we have to look at nation-states or corporations. The biggest factor is access. That is either in the sea (500m pressure is about 5MPa or about 730psi) or in the pipe. In the pipe is limited by who can access the pipe, either at the terminals or a service hatch. If it were my pipe, I would be guarding those very closely so that means it is either the owner of the terminals (Germany and Russia) or a rouge employee(s). If we look at in the sea, there are a very limited number of submersible vehicles that work at 740psi, either manned or unmanned. Again, the list is fairly short and should be fairly easily followed to find who did it. Also factor in that it happened the same day the new pipeline went active which rendered the existing 2 pipelines redundant.

Who has access?
Who has the ability?
Who has motive?
 

jderimig

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With the destruction of Nordstream pipelines make the single source (now) for European nat gas the Ukrainian pipeline? That would connect some of the dots wouldn't it?
 

heada

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With the destruction of Nordstream pipelines make the single source (now) for European nat gas the Ukrainian pipeline? That would connect some of the dots wouldn't it?
There is the line from Russia to Germany through Ukraine but I believe that one mostly carries oil, not gas. The day that these 2 were damaged, the line that goes from Norway through Denmark was turned on for the first time. The Norway-Denmark line also is very close to the Nord Stream lines where they were damaged.

edit: I was wrong, the line through Ukraine is gas.

 

heada

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I thought I read earlier the depth of the leaks was 75 meters, not 500 meters.
I thought I read/heard 500m so I looked for it and in the video PhilC posted


the commentator said "...the place were the explosions occurred. That's actually deep water. The Baltic goes from about 50 meters to about 500 meters and it's pretty deep east of Bornholm island. And these explosions were the equivalent of 200 er 250 pounds of TNT." So maybe not 500 meters but deeper than 75 meters.
 

SDramstad

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Not only a sub capable of these depths but one that can travel a long distance submerged. Plant the explosives and leave undetected. Only military's have subs like that. Someone would have noticed surface ships hanging around and after the line is blown it would be easy to figure out who did it.
 

Steve Shannon

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Not only a sub capable of these depths but one that can travel a long distance submerged. Plant the explosives and leave undetected. Only military's have subs like that. Someone would have noticed surface ships hanging around and after the line is blown it would be easy to figure out who did it.
This is why I said a pig would be the way to go. They would already have one that they just ran through the line for inspection before commissioning. It doesn’t need steering or remote control. You just put it into the line and send it. A device could even be programmed based on barometric pressure. It doesn’t have to travel through water and there are multiple insertion points, some in Russia and some not. 😀
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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I thought I read/heard 500m so I looked for it and in the video PhilC posted


the commentator said "...the place were the explosions occurred. That's actually deep water. The Baltic goes from about 50 meters to about 500 meters and it's pretty deep east of Bornholm island. And these explosions were the equivalent of 200 er 250 pounds of TNT." So maybe not 500 meters but deeper than 75 meters.

Interesting. I’ve seen it reported many places as 70-90 meters, but the commentator says this spot is an exception. Maybe so.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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This is why I said a pig would be the way to go. They would already have one that they just ran through the line for inspection before commissioning. It doesn’t need steering or remote control. You just put it into the line and send it. A device could even be programmed based on barometric pressure. It doesn’t have to travel through water and there are multiple insertion points, some in Russia and some not. 😀

Definitely send in a pig to blow it up.

52C9F7C6-3ED7-46EC-8DB6-FBAC0DB1DE1E.jpeg
 

Greg Furtman

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This is why I said a pig would be the way to go. They would already have one that they just ran through the line for inspection before commissioning. It doesn’t need steering or remote control. You just put it into the line and send it. A device could even be programmed based on barometric pressure. It doesn’t have to travel through water and there are multiple insertion points, some in Russia and some not. 😀
I was thinking a pig too. Insert it somewhere with some kind of a detonation system and wait for the day when you want to let her blow!
 

Sooner Boomer

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Another $1.1 billion aid package was approved Included are 20 multi-mission radars. Any idea what these are?
 

boatgeek

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I was thinking a pig too. Insert it somewhere with some kind of a detonation system and wait for the day when you want to let her blow!
You wouldn’t even need fancy electronics-a timer would do.

When the various intel agencies get a look at the outside of the pipe, they’ll know whether it was an internal or external explosion. They may even share that knowledge.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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The Ukrainians have been working their way toward another logistical hub in Lyman for awhile, and it sounds like they have it almost enveloped. It’s likely Russian defenses will collapse there in a day or two, and they might even get trapped and captured. When Lyman falls, it will cut supply lines to Russian defenses to the south and east.
 

Sandy H.

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My best guess is also a pig. While conventional thinking would be that a pig would make an obvious blast from the inside, smart techniques already known to the explosives industry could make the metal suck in vs blow out, I believe. Not sure if they thought that far in advance, though.

Either way, not a coincidence for sure. No clue what the political goal would be, though. If they want to sell gas, why blow up the pipes? I have no interest in any conspiracy theory saying it was the US, Ukraine, Britain etc.

Sandy.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Another $1.1 billion aid package was approved Included are 20 multi-mission radars. Any idea what these are?

One difference between this package and some of the other earlier ones is that this one is not being supplied through Presidential Drawdown Authority, which gives the President authority to provide assistance from existing US military stock. That’s the fast method of providing assistance.

This one is being supplied through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The USAI allows the government to procure the assistance through industry, not current stock. It’s a longer term commitment, and doesn’t deliver quite as fast.

What caught my eye was 18 more HIMARS launchers. That’s a lot.

Here’s the official DoD press release, which lists other items being supplied:

 

PhilC

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The Ukrainians have been working their way toward another logistical hub in Lyman for awhile, and it sounds like they have it almost enveloped. It’s likely Russian defenses will collapse there in a day or two, and they might even get trapped and captured. When Lyman falls, it will cut supply lines to Russian defenses to the south and east.
Lyman seems to be almost encircled so its ready to fall. I don’t think it cuts supply lines as they can still get supplies in from Russia from the Rostov direction instead of through Belgorod. It does significantly lenghten their supply lines, and makes the movement of units & material much more difficult in theatre.
 

Greg Furtman

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Lyman seems to be almost encircled so its ready to fall. I don’t think it cuts supply lines as they can still get supplies in from Russia from the Rostov direction instead of through Belgorod. It does significantly lenghten their supply lines, and makes the movement of units & material much more difficult in theatre.
I just Google Mapped Lyman. Man, is there a lot of railroad infrastructure in that city with rail lines heading off in all directions. I can see why the Ukrainians want to take it.
 

boatgeek

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First question: who could have blown the pipelines?

Semi-covertly:
Any navy with a deep sea submarine fleet (US, UK, France, Russia), plus
Any regional navy with any submarine fleet (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany)

I say semi-covertly here because the Baltic is a strategic post of the world and undersea microphone arrays are relatively cheap that close to land. I would expect that the militaries of the US, Germany, Poland (and possibly all of NATO), and Russia knew the class and possibly name of every surface ship and submarine that was anywhere near the pipelines in the last two weeks.

Overtly:
All of the above plus
Every other Baltic nation (Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania)
Any of a dozen of so major subsea construction companies
Any nation with a deep sea navy

I tend to discount the last one because it would have been moderately big news if a navy ship from China or India or Australia was rolling around the Baltic. Since that wasn’t in the news, it probably wasn’t them.

I don’t think the subsea construction theory is very plausible either. Those companies are very large, very risk-averse, and they depend on being able to work in a lot of places. They definitely wouldn’t spend a few million of their own money to blow a pipeline. Even if they were being paid by another entity, they would be very likely to be found out and blackballed from working in moderately large parts of the world, not to mention the likelihood of criminal charges. That’s almost certainly a higher risk than they’d be willing to pay.
 

modeltrains

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but I think if we follow Occom's razor then we have to
"

The case against Occam’s razor​


Occam’s razor is pretty easy to understand. It says that other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones. It is used everyday by scientists to choose between competing theories. The problems?

First, there is actually no empirical evidence that the world is simple, and therefore simpler solutions are more likely to be correct. In fact, many scientific theories have become more complex over time, as researchers would uncover new data.

...

Second, in a real-world setting, it’s impossible to compare explanations and solutions with all other things being equal. You cannot run A/B testing for your life and there is no alternative for critical and logical thinking.

Occam’s razor is a conservative mental model, which may prevent you from exploring complex but interesting solutions. While theorists may thrive for mathematical beauty, it makes no sense to go for the most elegant solution when trying to figure out a real-life problem.
...
"

 

dhbarr

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A lot of speculation acts like cokerunners haven't been building their own subs for the past couple of decades, not to mention repurposed inspection ROVs or something bought from Hammecher.
 

CalebJ

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A lot of speculation acts like cokerunners haven't been building their own subs for the past couple of decades, not to mention repurposed inspection ROVs or something bought from Hammecher.
But those sorts of subs are capable of going what - maybe 10m below the surface?
 

Dotini

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The New York Times is reporting one of the two Nord Stream 2 pipelines remains intact. If true, Russia retains leverage and is back to being the prime suspect.

Also, the quantity of methane released is said to be catastrophic for the climate, many times greater than any previous such leak.
 

Steve Shannon

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First question: who could have blown the pipelines?

Semi-covertly:
Any navy with a deep sea submarine fleet (US, UK, France, Russia), plus
Any regional navy with any submarine fleet (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany)

I say semi-covertly here because the Baltic is a strategic post of the world and undersea microphone arrays are relatively cheap that close to land. I would expect that the militaries of the US, Germany, Poland (and possibly all of NATO), and Russia knew the class and possibly name of every surface ship and submarine that was anywhere near the pipelines in the last two weeks.

Overtly:
All of the above plus
Every other Baltic nation (Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania)
Any of a dozen of so major subsea construction companies
Any nation with a deep sea navy

I tend to discount the last one because it would have been moderately big news if a navy ship from China or India or Australia was rolling around the Baltic. Since that wasn’t in the news, it probably wasn’t them.

I don’t think the subsea construction theory is very plausible either. Those companies are very large, very risk-averse, and they depend on being able to work in a lot of places. They definitely wouldn’t spend a few million of their own money to blow a pipeline. Even if they were being paid by another entity, they would be very likely to be found out and blackballed from working in moderately large parts of the world, not to mention the likelihood of criminal charges. That’s almost certainly a higher risk than they’d be willing to pay.
I watched this video last night.
One thing that I found interesting in the video is the thought that Gazprom may actually benefit from having the pipelines disabled. If that’s so, Gazprom would have both means and motive.
 

jderimig

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Also, the quantity of methane released is said to be catastrophic for the climate, many times greater than any previous such leak.
Methane breaks down into CO2 and water in a short time (relative to climate time). Another thing the media doesn't tell you. Its contribution to climate change is negligible compared to the millions tons of CO2 emitted every day by current combustion. The shut off of Russian natural gas is a net reduction greenhouse gas emissions even with the leak. (Until the Germans restart their coal plants).
 
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