Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

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Ukrainian Armed Forces confirm that Kherson bridge destroyed in high-precision strike​


https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-armed-forces-confirm-kherson-061701384.html
"
Ukrainian forces have conducted high-precision missile strikes on the Antonivka Road Bridge in Kherson.

Source: Natalia Humeniuk, head of the joint coordination press centre for the Ukrainian Defence Forces on air during the 24/7 national joint newscast on 27 July

Details: Humeniuk stressed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are controlling the logistical and transportation routes that have strategic significance for the Russian occupying forces in Kherson Oblast with firepower in order to prevent the Russians from replenishing their supplies.

In a comment about the Antonivka bridge, Humeniuk tactfully said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces treat all structures in Ukraine carefully, even when they are held by the Russian occupiers. "We are not destroying infrastructure, we are destroying the enemy’s plans," she said. She emphasised that the Ukrainian artillery are conducting high-precision strikes aimed at demoralising the Russian troops.

When a journalist asked for clarification as to whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the bridge, Humeniuk responded in the affirmative.

Quote from Humeniuk: "Yes, there were strikes [carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces - ed.], but they were high-precision strikes."

Earlier: On the night of 26-27 July, posts about and videos of the strikes on the Antonivka bridge and the response of the Russian air defence systems in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson began to appear on social media. There was no confirmed information about the consequences of these strikes.

On the morning of 27 July, Kyrylo Stremousov, a collaborator with the occupiers in Kherson Oblast, said that the Antonivka Road Bridge over the river Dnipro in Kherson had been damaged after an overnight attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Antonivka Road Bridge had already been struck and damaged earlier."
 
it seems like interest in the war faded in a a lot of news outlets after the Russians shifted focus away from Kyiv to the east, and the war turned into a protracted grind. But now the Ukrainian counteroffensive and shift in momentum is starting to be picked up by mainstream news sources. I’ve seen stories on CNN and elsewhere.

Here’s a well-written summary in the Washington Post of where things stand in the war. The article describes how the Russian offensive in Donbas is stalled, and it talks about the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson. It talks about the role of HIMARS in enabling Ukraine to hit behind the Russian lines.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/28/ukraine-russia-war-himars-missiles/
 
I just heard news on the radio about a looming counteroffensive from Ukraine. So your prediction about the news picking up will be true.


I also heard credible news that the Russian economy is suffering badly.
 
cbwho said:
I just heard news on the radio about a looming counteroffensive from Ukraine. So your prediction about the news picking up will be true.


I also heard credible news that the Russian economy is suffering badly.
Click to expand...
The word you’re looking for is “ongoing.” Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych effectively confirmed the intent of the operation two days ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08ecc573bc0fde#block-62e1df248f08ecc573bc0fde
(Photo just in case the link does weird stuff)

186BD570-2995-4D26-9D23-43EF590268E2.png
 
I haven't seen this mentioned already. There was a report. From where I don't remember. That Ukraine was going to be getting ATACMS. Another said they were getting A-10's and then F-16's. IIRC there are Ukrainian pilots being trained already. Anybody else seen anything about this?
 
teepot said:
I haven't seen this mentioned already. There was a report. From where I don't remember. That Ukraine was going to be getting ATACMS. Another said they were getting A-10's and then F-16's. IIRC there are Ukrainian pilots being trained already. Anybody else seen anything about this?
Click to expand...
ATACMS here. Making no claims to accuracy, only to quickness.

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-wa...-ukraine-with-atacms-long-range-missiles.html
F-16 and A-10 speculations abound. If there is anything concrete, it may take a while to find it, but I will look.

EDIT: Here’s something about the aircraft in question. Again, no claims to veracity, but it’s a place to start.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07...warthogs-really-wants-f-16-fighters-from-u-s/
Of note is this excerpt:

“[U.S. House of Representatives] lawmakers recently approved $100 million as part of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act to train Ukrainian pilots to fly U.S. fighter jets as the campaign against Russia rolls into a fifth month.

“While it’s not clear what airframe U.S. officials will settle on, the Ukrainian air force’s calls for F-16s have continued.”
 
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They indicated it was a home made drone with limited weaponry. Any speculation whether the attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters was an official attack by the military or an independent individual?
 
les said:
They indicated it was a home made drone with limited weaponry. Any speculation whether the attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters was an official attack by the military or an independent individual?
Click to expand...
You're talking about the report that the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet Command was hit by a Switchblade drone right? What I've read is that the drone was launched within Sevastopol. So probably an insurgent operating close by. Six injured, the warhead on the smaller Switchblade is not that big. But the Russians, even if they win this war, are going to have to deal with insurgencies continuously.
EDIT: One report says it was a Switchblade, another report says it was home made.
 
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Yes on the hit on the Black Sea Fleet Command.
But an article I saw (and can't recall where) stated the drone was "homemade", so I presumed it was not a Switchblade. I believe I also saw that it was launched locally, which is why I was wondering if it was an individual vs an "official" attack by the Ukrainian Military.

I did a little googling and found these:
AP - A small explosive device carried by a makeshift drone blew up Sunday at the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
Reuters - An unidentified object flew into the courtyard of the fleet's headquarters,and
1659323650242.png

It didn't seem like a Switchblade to me, but then again the news may not have all (or the correct) information
 
les said:
It didn't seem like a Switchblade to me, but then again the news may not have all (or the correct) information
Click to expand...
My feeling is that if it WAS a Switchblade, the Russians would be screaming about "American intrusion" in their affairs, or some such crap.
 
Interesting short piece on modifying drones to carry small grenades. Apparently there are volunteers 3D-printing detonation mechanisms and fin sets.



There's also some speculation out there that the repeated Ukrainian statements that they're about to retake Kherson are a lure to get Russians into the city. Once they're there, Ukraine can cut them off by cutting the bridges. Then they can't provide reinforcements to Ukrainians attacks on other fronts.
 
boatgeek said:
Interesting short piece on modifying drones to carry small grenades. Apparently there are volunteers 3D-printing detonation mechanisms and fin sets.



There's also some speculation out there that the repeated Ukrainian statements that they're about to retake Kherson are a lure to get Russians into the city. Once they're there, Ukraine can cut them off by cutting the bridges. Then they can't provide reinforcements to Ukrainians attacks on other fronts.
Click to expand...


That’s an interesting speculation about Ukraine trying to lure Russian troops into Kherson and cut them off. Whether that is the case or not, it seems like Russia is finally having to shift to react to Ukrainian initiatives, rather than the other way around. Up until recently almost everything Russia has done has been in the context of being on attack. Even when they had to abandon their attack on Kyiv, it was to shift resources to their attack on Donbas. But now they are shifting resources from Donbas to the defense of their gains in Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Their attack in Donetsk Oblast is stalled. Now they have to decide if they are going to defend gains there or in the south, but new territorial gains for Russia seem off the table. It seems like Ukraine is finally able to shape the course of the war to some degree, and they might be gaining the initiative.

Hasn’t it been a few weeks since the announcement of the US sending the last 4 HIMARS systems and rockets? According to my theory, there should be another 60 or so HIMARS crew members trained about now, and it’s time for another 4 systems and more ammo. Ukraine needs to be able to threaten Russian forces along more than one axis and make them choose what to defend. I don’t think Russia can defend it all, especially if Ukraine can keep destroying their supplies and logistics in the rear.
 
ThirstyBarbarian said:
That’s an interesting speculation about Ukraine trying to lure Russian troops into Kherson and cut them off. Whether that is the case or not, it seems like Russia is finally having to shift to react to Ukrainian initiatives, rather than the other way around. Up until recently almost everything Russia has done has been in the context of being on attack. Even when they had to abandon their attack on Kyiv, it was to shift resources to their attack on Donbas. But now they are shifting resources from Donbas to the defense of their gains in Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Their attack in Donetsk Oblast is stalled. Now they have to decide if they are going to defend gains there or in the south, but new territorial gains for Russia seem off the table. It seems like Ukraine is finally able to shape the course of the war to some degree, and they might be gaining the initiative.

Hasn’t it been a few weeks since the announcement of the US sending the last 4 HIMARS systems and rockets? According to my theory, there should be another 60 or so HIMARS crew members trained about now, and it’s time for another 4 systems and more ammo. Ukraine needs to be able to threaten Russian forces along more than one axis and make them choose what to defend. I don’t think Russia can defend it all, especially if Ukraine can keep destroying their supplies and logistics in the rear.
Click to expand...
What Ukraine also really needs is the ability to conduct precision attacks on strategic targets in Russia. Otherwise this’ll eventually just turn into a stalemated war of attrition with the lines of control being the recognized international border.

That, of course, comes later, but the battlespace includes more than just the front.
 
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Reportedly, the Ukrainians have launched an offensive in Izum City in the direction of Harkiv rather than Kherson.
 
The Russians appear to be using the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Enerhodar as a safe zone from which to shell Nikopol, store ammunition and rest their forces. There have been fires and explosions at the facility with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of doing the shelling of the plant which is under Russian control. If that weren’t scary enough, there are some very shady dealings going on with the nuclear plant management.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant
 
Peartree said:
Reportedly, the Ukrainians have launched an offensive in Izum City in the direction of Harkiv rather than Kherson.
Click to expand...

Do you have more info on that or a link? I’m interested in hearing more.

I think as the Russians try to move their forces and supplies around to shore up one area, they leave other areas open, and we might see localized counteroffensives in many areas. A couple of weeks ago, I saw an analysis that suggested the major Ukrainian counteroffensive expected to start by September would most likely be in Kherson, because Donetsk and Luhansk were too heavily fortified by Russia, and Kharkiv offered Russia short supply lines across the border and Ukraine long supply lines across the country from western allies. So Kherson offered a less well-defended region, long supply lines for Russia and short lines for Ukraine. And pushing Russia back from Kherson would help defend Odessa. That was the reasoning then, but things can change quickly.
 
WoShuGui said:
The Russians appear to be using the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Enerhodar as a safe zone from which to shell Nikopol, store ammunition and rest their forces. There have been fires and explosions at the facility with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of doing the shelling of the plant which is under Russian control. If that weren’t scary enough, there are some very shady dealings going on with the nuclear plant management.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant
Click to expand...

This is really scary. I feel like the chance for a nuclear disaster during this war is high.
 
Two interesting pieces in this story:

a) The bridges into Kherson appear to be down, but the Russians keep ferrying equipment in. At some point, the ferries are going to be destroyed and the Russians are going to be in a world of hurt with no supplies.

b) NATO-standard AGM-88 anti-radar missiles have been identified in the wreckage of Russian SAM sites. These missiles are air-launched in NATO use, but are apparently not compatible with any Soviet-bloc aircraft. It's not clear if these have somehow been modified to work from ex-Soviet aircraft (Polish MiG-29s?) or are ground launched. Either way, it has to make SAM radar operators extremely nervous.

Standard disclaimer: This article itself is apolitical, but DailyKos is an explicitly political site. No guarantees of comments or sidebar links being apolitical.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...prise-missile-makes-its-exciting-combat-debut
 
I was looking forward to learning more about the old Soviet space program, but now I'm like :facepalm:. Sigh. Lost interest since Feb or March or whenever this mess started.

 
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boatgeek said:
Interesting short piece on modifying drones to carry small grenades. Apparently there are volunteers 3D-printing detonation mechanisms and fin sets.



There's also some speculation out there that the repeated Ukrainian statements that they're about to retake Kherson are a lure to get Russians into the city. Once they're there, Ukraine can cut them off by cutting the bridges. Then they can't provide reinforcements to Ukrainians attacks on other fronts.
Click to expand...

This is really concerning. While we may cheer the Ukranians using these against the Russians, boogerbears all over the world are seeing the same videos. How long before drones like these start trying the same tactics against American or Israeli tanks (or other allies)?
 
Sooner Boomer said:
This is really concerning. While we may cheer the Ukranians using these against the Russians, boogerbears all over the world are seeing the same videos. How long before drones like these start trying the same tactics against American or Israeli tanks (or other allies)?
Click to expand...
Honestly, we're probably lucky that all of these things are being tried when we have direct insight into the difficulty and effectiveness of these things. It's not like [whoever] wasn't going to figure out a bunch of this stuff on their own anyway if we invaded them. At least this way we aren't going to be surprised. At least by these tactics. I would expect that there's a whole lot of effort going into efforts to identify and disable drones in military R&D units all over the world.

I think the wildest development in this war is the "Uber for artillery" system that Ukraine cooked up, where targets come into some kind of central clearinghouse and was assigned to a suitable unit in range complete with GPS coordinates. That meant that Ukraine could have units spotting and another unit entirely shooting. Also, incoming shells by the one or two didn't tend to trigeer the Russian's counterbattery radar to order counterfire.
 
Our precision munitions (many options) would have no problem, I'm not sure what the Ukrainians have available to them.

Or was it a special opps team?

Looks like excellent targeting, very little (if any) collateral damage.

I think it was only 8 aircraft destroyed.
 

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