Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I suggest you read Sun Tzu

Is “Sun Tzu” Chinese for “Black Knight”. ‘Tis but a scratch!

 

[OverTheTop]

I am just reading his Art of War currently. It is interesting to see it applied in reality. For instance, the Ukrainians let half of the Russians across the river before hitting the pontoon bridges with artillery recently. That is one of the tenets in the book.

You can see the strategies applied properly and improperly, and the attendant outcomes.

A nice light read if you go and get one.

 

[John Kemker]

A nice light read if you go and get one.

Back when I was much younger, one of my hobbies was board wargaming. Think SPI, Avalon Hill, GDW, etc. As a part of being into the hobby, I read Sun Tzu. I agree with your assessment. Not hard to read, but very rich in wisdom.

 

[boatgeek]

So Russia has said that Finland risks annihilation if it joins NATO. I'm guessing Putin is going to hire a bunch of Ukrainians to annihilate Finland?

Quote from a Finn during the winter war: “We are such a small country. Where will we find space to bury them all?” Don’t mess with Finland.

 

[boatgeek]

Apparently they also have photon torpedoes.

Also apparently they’ve rigged their third rate missiles to fail to explode.

And using one do explode to destroy shopping centers instead of military or infrastructure targets.

 

[Funkworks]

Is “Sun Tzu” Chinese for “Black Knight”. ‘Tis but a scratch!

Shih Tzu dog:
"No relation to me neither but a long time ago far way, he helped my ancestors win the Battle of Endor"

 

[afadeev]

No pro football team runs their full arsenal of plays in an exhibition game.........especially against a team they'll be playing in the regular season

This is not some kind of Russian rope-a-dope strategy to lull everyone into a false sense of security before they spring their secret trap. They went in with everything they have, and they are getting their asses kicked, because they suck. They let their military rot, and now it’s worthless.

Indeed.
You don't loose 1/3 of your forces to show "others" what you "could do, if you were really trying":
In simple terms - Russia doesn't have a pro football team. Likely never had.
They have a JV team that was doing a pretty good job making pro videos advertising itself, and had large international teams of cheerleaders who were institutionally incentivized to take them at their word.
Now that the game is on, Russia keeps fumbling the ball and tripping over their own legs at each turn.

Sorry, that's an incorrect interpretation. I believe that the Russians are trying to achieve their ends as quickly as possible without giving their would be adversaries information on the entire depth of their military capabilities.

That's a thought that likely crossed all of our minds during the first few days of this war.
What is the evidence to support this claim?
80 days in, and Russian second offensive is bogged down, after the first offensive push failed and they had to retreat?

Occam's Razor alternative explanation - Russians are, and have always been doing the best they can, with everything they've got. Russian army, navy, and air force - all have had a crack at Ukraine, to the best of their respective abilities. Those simply have been insufficient for the task at hand.

It’s kind of shocking, especially to anyone like me who grew up in the Cold War, but I really think they are this bad now. Corruption hollowed them out.

Again, law of parsimony - it's as good as they ever been. They just had 5+x more of everything during the Cold War (5.3M strong army vs. 800K now), to the point of bankrupting their country through excessive military spending. And as Stalin liked to say - “Quantity has a quality all its own”. They just can't afford to do that anymore.

Actually, they can't afford to do what they are doing now either, but that's a lesson they will have to learn the hard way over the next few years and decades.
And that lesson, if the US has the stamina to teach it fully, will serve as a useful warning to China, as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-this-chart-has-some-answers/?outputType=amp

 

[smstachwick]

Supposedly Turkey's president Erdogan may be opposed to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
He says that some Scandinavian countries support anti Turkish terrorists like the Kurds.
It was surprising to me that if even one NATO member objects to an application by a nation they can veto that application. So it can be 29 in favor, one against and the application is rejected.
I'm guessing there will be some heavy lobbying between Turkey and Washington in the immediate future.

I don’t trust the Turks. Withdrawal or expulsion from the alliance is just as likely if an agreement can’t be reached.

 

[Peartree]

I don’t trust the Turks. Withdrawal or expulsion from the alliance is just as likely if an agreement can’t be reached.

Agreed. Give a choice between Finland + Sweden OR Turkey, I don't know that Turkey would end up with any friends. Besides, I'm betting that Turkey gets more out of belonging to NATO than NATO gets from their participation.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

I don’t trust the Turks. Withdrawal or expulsion from the alliance is just as likely if an agreement can’t be reached.

Agree as well. They were kicked out of the F-35 program for accepting the S-400. They have some benefit the US in geographical location to both Russia and the Middle East. Erdogan is a dictator thug and has gotten too cozy with Putin.

 

[Antares JS]

Not so sure about NATO being okay with losing Turkey. I can sum up in two words why they are so valuable: "Bosporus" and "Dardanelles."

 

[boatgeek]

The consensus seems to be that Turkey is playing a game for concessions and will eventually come around. While Turkey is relatively close to Russia, they’re also selling the Bayraktars to Ukraine.

 

[Blast it Tom!]

Not so sure about NATO being okay with losing Turkey. I can sum up in two words why they are so valuable: "Bosporus" and "Dardanelles."

That's a good, strait answer!

 

[boomtube-mk2]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-confirm-hitting-ukrainian-targets-112214181.html
As if this war wasn't bad enough.
If Russian Cluster Bombs are as "Quality Built" as the rest of their hardware you can expect that 50% or more of the dispersed bomblets won't explode as advertised. They'll lie around until somebody stumbles over them days or weeks or even months later and then they'll go off.

Of course, sometimes they are designed to do that.

 

[Funkworks]

In case anyone is wondering, Turkey joined NATO in 1952.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_191048.htm?selectedLocale=en

 

[tsmmiller]

 

[aerostadt]

If Putin had been smart, he should have realized that he needed a quick and easy victory. If he didn't get a quick and easy victory, he would have to pull out and say he taught Ukraine a lesson, like the Communist Chinese did with Viet Nam in in the late 1970's. Otherwise, he and his Cronies would be headed for a PR disaster and all the following consequences from the West. He would not be able to get away with all the atrocities like he did in Syria, Chechyna, Georgia, etc. The West was simply too in tune with what was happening. Whatever worldwide sympathy there was that Russia was being surrounded by NATO has been lost. Many people including myself could not imagine that the Ukraine would oppose the Russians so strongly and effectively. There were TRF'ers early in this thread that recognized the tenacity of the Ukrainians and stated so. They were right.

 

[Banzai88]

"The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions."

Robert Wilson Lynd

 

[aerostadt]

"The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions."

Robert Wilson Lynd

Good point.

The Civil War is a good example.

Settling disputes by killing and destruction is not only ethically wrong, but often parties end up losing loved ones, livelihoods, and material wealth. That aside if you are going to make a mistake, make it a small one. I remember Bush the elder saying that Saddam Hussein doesn't need to save face. Neither does the world need to worry about an off-ramp for Putin.

 

[Steve Shannon]

It’s looking pretty bleak in terms of avoiding an invasion. I don’t know if it’s just posturing or something else, but Russia is ramping up preparations, not pulling back, so if it’s not posturing, it makes most sense they are going to invade.

I don’t think the US or NATO countries will get directly involved with fighting. They will supply weapons, supplies, maybe intelligence or other aid, but American and NATO forces are not going to fight Russian forces directly. Things would have to spin completely out of control for that to happen.

The main things we can do in response are economic, which is a two-edged sword. There are things we can do to make it harder for Russia to sell its oil and gas, which would really hurt Russia, but it would also likely drive up energy prices for everyone.

Another thing we can do is give Putin more of what he doesn’t want, which is stronger NATO reinforcement in NATO nations. More troops and weapons systems positioned in the NATO nations closest to Russia.

Looking back to pre-invasion, this seems to be one of the most accurate predictions.

 

[kuririn]

Yep, Thirsty has good insights on a lot of topics.
But what does he know about rockets?

A few more details have emerged about the attempted Russian river crossing at Sivertsky Donets.
It was a two day battle, the Ukrainis claim at least 73 tanks were destroyed.
Pro Russian bloggers have begun to criticize their militarys' incompetence following the debacle.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-bloggers-shocked-militarys-incompetence-ukraine-report-1706742
I also read today that 74 out of 90 howitzers that the US transferred to Ukraine are now in use in the field.

 

[rocket_troy]

Pro Russian bloggers have begun to criticize their militarys' incompetence following the debacle.

Military Strategist Mick Ryan says:
"The Ukrainians have also forced a form of intellectual corrosion on the Russians. Under pressure to achieve some form of victory due to previous setbacks, the invaders are taking greater tactical and operational risks with their military operations. The disastrous assault river-crossing over the Severskyi Donets – where at least one Russian brigade had its combat capability destroyed – is indicative of an army that is becoming less capable of assessing the risks of significant operational or tactical decisions."

In this piece:
https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html

TP

 

[Reinhard]

Retired Russian Col Mikhail Khodaryonok appeared on Russian State TV with an unusually frank assessment of the situation. Allowing that on air - I guess - was not an accident. It has been mentioned before that the Russian government uses state controlled media to put various opinions out there to gauge the response of the population.



Reinhard

 

[OverTheTop]

The Eurovision Song Contest 2022 has been run and won. Due to a massive sympathy vote Ukraine have taken out top honours.

They have recently made a music video of the song, shot in the recently bombed cities. This was done after the win in Torino, Italy last weekend.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...eurovision-winners-kalush-orchestra/101073676

 

[bwayne64]

If Putin had been smart, he should have realized that he needed a quick and easy victory. If he didn't get a quick and easy victory, he would have to pull out

Unfortunately Putin's sex therapist told him that pulling out, just doesn't work, ; )

 

[boomtube-mk2]

If Putin had been smart, he should have realized that he needed a quick and easy victory.

For the sake of argument let's say that something occurs within Russia and the Russian forces are withdrawn from Ukraine and whomever is in charge claims "Victory" or at the very least that the aims had been achieved.

Now what?

Ukraine is a mess that will take years and years and 100's-of-billions to rebuild. Millions of its citizens are refugees that cannot return because there is nothing to return too.

And what of Russia?

How will the world ever trust that nation again?
How can there ever be anything approaching "Normalized" relations between Russia and "The West"?
To one degree or another Russia must continue this war to completion, meaning the total subjugation of Ukraine as that is the only way they can bury the calls for War-crimes tribunals and reparations responsibility that a "victorious" Ukraine will demand of them.

 

[bwayne64]

Unless Putin just wants to keep losing men, tanks, planes, and Generals, he should call it quits. But I suspect he is in mental la la land. Needs to be fitted for the long sleeve, buckled shirt and inserted in the closest rubber room. He will probably double and triple down, like a drunk tourist in Las Vegas. He will lose more than his life savings. If he's crazy enough to use nukes, he will discover that 10,000 Spf sun block just won't cut it. Of course, so will
we ! Frackin' Nukes, Dumbest invention ever.

 

[boatgeek]

For the sake of argument let's say that something occurs within Russia and the Russian forces are withdrawn from Ukraine and whomever is in charge claims "Victory" or at the very least that the aims had been achieved.

Now what?

Ukraine is a mess that will take years and years and 100's-of-billions to rebuild. Millions of its citizens are refugees that cannot return because there is nothing to return too.

And what of Russia?

How will the world ever trust that nation again?
How can there ever be anything approaching "Normalized" relations between Russia and "The West"?
To one degree or another Russia must continue this war to completion, meaning the total subjugation of Ukraine as that is the only way they can bury the calls for War-crimes tribunals and reparations responsibility that a "victorious" Ukraine will demand of them.

Russia's in a world of hurt right now, but that's no surprise to anyone paying attention. The situation on the ground isn't getting any better, and blunders like throwing away an entire battalion of tanks on three attempted river crossings at the same point (!) aren't helping. Ukraine is turning the tide. So strategically, what next?

(a) Putin stays in power and Russia is defeated militarily. Ukraine regains the Donbas and Crimea. Putin will probably get an acute case of lead poisoning soon after. The new leadership blames everything on Putin and tries to go back to status quo. I would be surprised if Europe buys into that. Sure, they'll buy Russian gas and oil for a few more years, but their plans to accelerate away from Russian fossil fuels will continue. In 5 years, Russia will only be able to sell to a few countries (Hungary and China, most likely).

If Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons (or chemical weapons on a large scale), then NATO joins the fight and the war is over sooner, also in Ukraine's favor. If Putin uses strategic nuclear weapons, then we all lose.

(b) Putin stays in power, tries to declare victory and go home. There's no way Ukraine stops at the post-2014 border--they'll retake the rest of the Donbas at minimum. Maybe they stop at Crimea, but the sanctions will likely continue. See (a), only worse economically for Russia.

(c) Putin dies of natural or unnatural causes, the new Russian leadership continues with the war. See (a) or (b).

(d) Putin dies of natural or unnatural causes, the new Russian leadership says that they're very sorry and everything was Putin's fault. See (b).

None of these outcomes have Russia with a viable economy in 10 years.

 

[georgegassaway]

And what of Russia?

How will the world ever trust that nation again?
How can there ever be anything approaching "Normalized" relations between Russia and "The West"?
To one degree or another Russia must continue this war to completion, meaning the total subjugation of Ukraine as that is the only way they can bury the calls for War-crimes tribunals and reparations responsibility that a "victorious" Ukraine will demand of them.

If Russia wins, they can't eliminate the calls for war-crimes tribunals, those calls are already occurring. And many of the war crimes have been, and are, bring documented. As well, I would expect there to be a Ukraine government in Exile, to act on Ukraine's behalf, to whatever extents possible.

The biggest problem is for any war crimes trials to actually "Stick". It's not like the World Court could force Russia to hand over generals and leaders and troops charged with war crimes. Or force Russia to pay for rebuilding/resettlement. Take away Russian assets that are outside of Russia, yes, at least those in countries that would allow that to happen. Not the likes of say Belarus who are helping Russia.

And, the U.N. can't do much if one of the "Big 5" object, and Russia is one of the Big 5, so they can veto it.

Russia, under Pootin's delusions, has dug its own grave as far as the foreseeable future in international relations, win or lose. "Winning" (insert Charline Sheen meme here) would make it just that much more worse.

The slimmest hope would be for this mess to galvanize the citizens of Russia to rise up and force change. That would seem very unlikely, as Pootin' has such a stranglehold on the country. But Pootin' seems to have some serious health issues, t the least some form of cancer. So he may not be around much longer. But of course he must have some hand-picked successor from among his gang, to take over, who would be like-minded.

BUT, if say there were such a change, and say Navalny became president, with a non-aggressive stance as in the Yeltsin years, THEN there could certainly be far more accelerated trust in Russia over time. I know, Navalny becoming president might sound like a crazy thing to happen, but then Nelson Mandela leaving prison and becoming president of South Africa someday would have sounded crazy in the 1960's onwards. Not saying it is likely.

 

[Dotini]

Since the last three posts have been interesting and well informed speculations, I may as well add my two cents worth.

In my opinion, Russia has lost too much of its armed forces to rationally continue the invasion in any sort of offensive military manner. Therefore they must go on the defensive and hope to stay in the game by economic or political means.