Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Part of Putin's declaration of a "Special Operations" is working against him and his cronies. The numbers of fresh Russian Army recruits is running out. In order to call up conscripts and reservists Putin needs to declare war and that is something Putin and his cronies have refrained from doing. I don't know how valid this is, but there are reports that some soldiers at the urging of Russian lawyers are encouraged or instructed to decline service in the Ukraine without a declaration of war.
 
I saw an interesting headline first thing this morning and tried to follow it up in some other sources. The headline said that Ukraine had destroyed an entire Russian battalion of about 1,000 troops! Holy crap! As I dug into it, it turns out that is probably not exactly right, but it’s still really bad for Russia. It was interesting to how the updates to the story came out. And the details are still not exactly clear.

According to the first article, the Russians tried to cross the Sivertsky Donets river. The Ukrainians used artillery to blow up the Russian pontoon bridge and wipe out the battalion.

The next article said that the Ukrainians destroyed 70-80 armored vehicles — tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers — but the vehicles were probably not full to capacity with soldiers. So instead of 1,000 killed, it was probably more like 140-180.

The next article said that the initial battle involved a battalion trying to cross the river over the pontoon bridge. The Ukrainians were aware of it in advance. They let 3 dozen or so vehicles cross, then hit the bridge with artillery, trapping the units that had crossed, and then shelling the crap out of them. The Russians tried to do a second crossing to try to rescue the stranded troops, and the Ukrainians shelled that bridge too. Apparently a lot of troops died trying to swim back across the river.

Now the latest report I read said that there were actually 3 attempts to cross the river that were stopped by the Ukrainians.

So the details keep being adjusted, but it sounds like 70-80 armored vehicles destroyed and 140-180 troops killed from 1-2 battalions, during 2-3 crossing attempts. Or something like that. More to come! ;)

Here’s one of the updates.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world...7e6af6c6835775caca8086&pinned_post_type=share
 
But I thought that Russia was getting their ass kicked by the Ukrainians. I mean it's in all the media, right? So, since Russia is getting its ass kicked, wouldn't Zelensky be negotiating at a position of strength?
At the moment, yes. Is this drags on to February and a lot of Europe is very cold because of fossil fuel sanctions on Russia, there will probably be more pressure to settle things. I hope to be wrong, both on timeline and resolve.
 
Russia doesn't exactly have a plethora of young healthy men such that they can afford to keep sending them into this meatgrinder of a war.
Russia's birth rate has been well below replacement levels for a long time now (Decades?) and has been getting worse in recent years.
Now Putin is killing-off the very people Russia desperately needs to keep Russia's population from collapsing to a level that it can't even keep the nation running efficiently, or at least as efficiently as Russia ever has.

I can't help but wonder if this isn't one of, if not the primary reason, Ukranian children are being sent back to Russia. Russia needs live healthy children that can grow up and be healthy adults which hopefully, from the Russian perspective, breed at a greater rate than the native Russian population.
 
Last edited:
If that thing had exploded, that car would have been ruined.
This could lead to an interesting warranty claim call:

Driver: my car got hit by a rocket, am I covered?
Insurance: Are you sh*tting me? Where you launching with NAR or Tripoli?
Driver: no, it got hit by a big metal rocket. It think it was the Russians.
Insurance: Oh, did you get an insurance info from the Russians?
Driver: what insurance info, the f*ckers are invading, pillaging, and raping us. Now they dropped a rocket on by bimmer and ruined the roof of my car port.
Insurance: I'm sorry, that sounds like a residential claim to me, please hold, I will transfer you...
 
Last edited:
Insurance agent: "I'm sorry sir, but your insurance only covers your car if the rocket had actually exploded, we don't cover duds".
 
I think it is a rational action for everybody to have on-hand a minimum of 30 days' worth of long-term storage food and enough bottled water to last a couple of weeks.
If America's social order completely collapses, economy, law enforcement etc., then there's really no amount of food and water you could store that is going to be of much help because all that you have is only as good as your ability to defend it from those who have nothing.
If WWIII touches off and the Russian's start tossing nukes our way, then I personally want to be sitting under the largest nuke they throw at us.
I do not want to be a "Survivor", I've seen Threads ('84) and The Day After ('83) and they don't end well.
My dad has about two weeks of stuff stacked away. Food buckets, surplus MREs, etc. We figure it’ll be useful if/when the next wildfire comes through and we have to leave in the space of an hour.

We haven’t had to do anything like that in a while, but if we do, we’ll be ready.
 
According to today’s ISW assessment, they assess that Ukraine has likely won the battle of Kharkiv. Russian troops don’t seem to be resisting Ukrainian counter-offensives in the Kharkiv area any longer and are trying to withdraw in an orderly way. Like with Kyiv, Russia was never able to seize Kharkiv or even encircle it, and now they are withdrawing.

I mentioned earlier today the heavy losses to the Russian battalions attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River. Another takeaway from the assessment is that those losses were so severe that the Russians probably lack the combat power to continue that offensive, but they will probably continue to try. More meat into the grinder.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13
 
From the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine

‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine​

Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war.

"Pjotr Sauer
Thu 12 May 2022 13.58 EDT

When the soldiers of an elite Russian army brigade were told in early April to prepare for a second deployment to Ukraine, fear broke out among the ranks.
The unit, stationed in Russia’s far east during peacetime, first entered Ukraine from Belarus when the war started at the end of February and saw bitter combat with Ukrainian forces.

“It soon became clear that not everyone was onboard with it. Many of us simply did not want to go back,” said Dmitri, a member of the unit who asked not to be identified with his real name. “I want to return to my family – and not in a casket.”
Along with eight others, Dmitri told his commanders that he refused to rejoin the invasion. “They were furious. But they eventually calmed down because there wasn’t much they could do,” he said.
He was soon transferred to Belgorod, a Russian city close to the border with Ukraine, where he has been stationed since. “I have served for five years in the army. My contract ends in June. I will serve my remaining time and then I am out of here,” he said. “I have nothing to be ashamed of. We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”
Dmitri’s refusal to fight highlights some of the military difficulties the Russian army has faced as a result of the Kremlin’s political decision not to formally declare war on Ukraine – preferring instead to describe the invasion, which will soon reach its fourth month, as a “special military operation”.
Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has been advising soldiers who choose that option.
Benyash said “hundreds and hundreds” of soldiers had been in touch with his team for advice on how they could avoid being sent to fight. Among them were 12 national guardsmen from Russia’s southern city of Krasnodar who were fired after refusing to go to Ukraine.
“Commanders try to threaten their soldiers with prison time if they dissent, but we tell the soldiers that they can simply say no,” Benyash said, adding that he was not aware of any criminal cases against soldiers who refused to fight. “There are no legal grounds to start a criminal case if a soldier refuses to fight while on Russian territory.”
Many soldiers, therefore, have chosen to be fired or transferred rather than going into “the meat grinder”, he said.

A similar account to Dmitri’s was given to the BBC’s Russian service by Sergey Bokov, a 23-year-old soldier who at the end of April decided to leave the army after fighting in Ukraine. “Our commanders didn’t even argue with us because we were not the first ones to leave,” Bokov said.

Pointing to Russia’s military laws, Benyash said it would be more difficult for soldiers to refuse to fight if Russia were to declare a full-scale war. “During wartime, rules are totally different. Refusal then would mean much harsher penalties. They would be looking at time in prison.”

While the exact number of soldiers refusing to fight remains unclear, such stories illustrate what military experts and western governments say is one of Russia’s biggest obstacles in Ukraine: a severe shortage of infantry soldiers.

Moscow initially put about 80% of its main ground combat forces – 150,000 men – into the war in February, according to western officials. But significant damage has been done to that army, which has confronted logistical problems, poor morale and an underestimated Ukrainian resistance.

“Putin needs to make a decision regarding mobilisation in the coming weeks,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst. “Russia lacks sufficient ground units with contract soldiers for a sustainable rotation. The troops are getting exhausted – they won’t be able to keep this up for a long period.”

Lee said one option for the Kremlin would be to authorise the deployment of conscript units to Ukraine, despite Putin’s earlier pledges that Russia would not use any conscripts in the war. “Conscripts could fill some of the gaps, but they will be poorly trained. Many of the units that are supposed to train conscripts are fighting themselves,” Lee said.

But without conscript battalions, Russia could soon “struggle to hold the territory it currently controls in Ukraine, especially as Ukraine receives better equipment from Nato,” he said.

Russian authorities quietly stepped up their efforts to recruit new soldiers as it became clear that a quick victory in Ukraine was unattainable.

An investigation by the BBC’s Russian service showed that Russia’s defence ministry filled employment websites with vacancies, offering people with no combat experience opportunities to join the army on lucrative short-term contracts. Some large government-run companies have received letters urging them to sign up their staff for the army.

Russia has also turned to mercenaries to bolster its war efforts, deploying fighters from the shadowy Kremlin-linked Wagner group.

But analysts say voluntary recruits and mercenary groups are unlikely to lead to a substantial increase in the number of new soldiers, compared with the numbers that a partial or a full-scale mobilisation would bring.

Despite speculation beforehand, Putin did not formally declare war on Ukraine during his Victory Day speech on 9 May.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said the authorities may be worried that a general mobilisation would antagonise large sections of the population that support the “special operation”.

Russians “might be in favour of the conflict, but they don’t actually want to fight,” he said, adding that a general mobilisation would entail “colossal losses of untrained soldiers”.

And while the current status of the conflict gives Russian soldiers a legal path to refuse participation, some soldiers have complained that it has also led to them not being adequately cared for.

A junior sergeant said he was injured during one of the recent Ukrainian attacks on the Russian border territory where he was stationed. His superiors argued that he should not be given the monetary compensation of up to £2,500 that wounded Russians are entitled to by law because his injury took place on Russian soil – meaning it did not fall under the rules of Russia’s “special military operation”.

“It is unfair, I am fighting in this war just as the others in Ukraine, risking my life,” the soldier said. “If I don’t get the compensation that I am entitled to soon, I will go public and make a major issue of it.”
 
From the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine

‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine​

Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war.

"Pjotr Sauer
Thu 12 May 2022 13.58 EDT

When the soldiers of an elite Russian army brigade were told in early April to prepare for a second deployment to Ukraine, fear broke out among the ranks.
The unit, stationed in Russia’s far east during peacetime, first entered Ukraine from Belarus when the war started at the end of February and saw bitter combat with Ukrainian forces.

“It soon became clear that not everyone was onboard with it. Many of us simply did not want to go back,” said Dmitri, a member of the unit who asked not to be identified with his real name. “I want to return to my family – and not in a casket.”
Along with eight others, Dmitri told his commanders that he refused to rejoin the invasion. “They were furious. But they eventually calmed down because there wasn’t much they could do,” he said.
He was soon transferred to Belgorod, a Russian city close to the border with Ukraine, where he has been stationed since. “I have served for five years in the army. My contract ends in June. I will serve my remaining time and then I am out of here,” he said. “I have nothing to be ashamed of. We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”
Dmitri’s refusal to fight highlights some of the military difficulties the Russian army has faced as a result of the Kremlin’s political decision not to formally declare war on Ukraine – preferring instead to describe the invasion, which will soon reach its fourth month, as a “special military operation”.
Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has been advising soldiers who choose that option.
Benyash said “hundreds and hundreds” of soldiers had been in touch with his team for advice on how they could avoid being sent to fight. Among them were 12 national guardsmen from Russia’s southern city of Krasnodar who were fired after refusing to go to Ukraine.
“Commanders try to threaten their soldiers with prison time if they dissent, but we tell the soldiers that they can simply say no,” Benyash said, adding that he was not aware of any criminal cases against soldiers who refused to fight. “There are no legal grounds to start a criminal case if a soldier refuses to fight while on Russian territory.”
Many soldiers, therefore, have chosen to be fired or transferred rather than going into “the meat grinder”, he said.

A similar account to Dmitri’s was given to the BBC’s Russian service by Sergey Bokov, a 23-year-old soldier who at the end of April decided to leave the army after fighting in Ukraine. “Our commanders didn’t even argue with us because we were not the first ones to leave,” Bokov said.

Pointing to Russia’s military laws, Benyash said it would be more difficult for soldiers to refuse to fight if Russia were to declare a full-scale war. “During wartime, rules are totally different. Refusal then would mean much harsher penalties. They would be looking at time in prison.”

While the exact number of soldiers refusing to fight remains unclear, such stories illustrate what military experts and western governments say is one of Russia’s biggest obstacles in Ukraine: a severe shortage of infantry soldiers.

Moscow initially put about 80% of its main ground combat forces – 150,000 men – into the war in February, according to western officials. But significant damage has been done to that army, which has confronted logistical problems, poor morale and an underestimated Ukrainian resistance.

“Putin needs to make a decision regarding mobilisation in the coming weeks,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst. “Russia lacks sufficient ground units with contract soldiers for a sustainable rotation. The troops are getting exhausted – they won’t be able to keep this up for a long period.”

Lee said one option for the Kremlin would be to authorise the deployment of conscript units to Ukraine, despite Putin’s earlier pledges that Russia would not use any conscripts in the war. “Conscripts could fill some of the gaps, but they will be poorly trained. Many of the units that are supposed to train conscripts are fighting themselves,” Lee said.

But without conscript battalions, Russia could soon “struggle to hold the territory it currently controls in Ukraine, especially as Ukraine receives better equipment from Nato,” he said.

Russian authorities quietly stepped up their efforts to recruit new soldiers as it became clear that a quick victory in Ukraine was unattainable.

An investigation by the BBC’s Russian service showed that Russia’s defence ministry filled employment websites with vacancies, offering people with no combat experience opportunities to join the army on lucrative short-term contracts. Some large government-run companies have received letters urging them to sign up their staff for the army.

Russia has also turned to mercenaries to bolster its war efforts, deploying fighters from the shadowy Kremlin-linked Wagner group.

But analysts say voluntary recruits and mercenary groups are unlikely to lead to a substantial increase in the number of new soldiers, compared with the numbers that a partial or a full-scale mobilisation would bring.

Despite speculation beforehand, Putin did not formally declare war on Ukraine during his Victory Day speech on 9 May.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said the authorities may be worried that a general mobilisation would antagonise large sections of the population that support the “special operation”.

Russians “might be in favour of the conflict, but they don’t actually want to fight,” he said, adding that a general mobilisation would entail “colossal losses of untrained soldiers”.

And while the current status of the conflict gives Russian soldiers a legal path to refuse participation, some soldiers have complained that it has also led to them not being adequately cared for.

A junior sergeant said he was injured during one of the recent Ukrainian attacks on the Russian border territory where he was stationed. His superiors argued that he should not be given the monetary compensation of up to £2,500 that wounded Russians are entitled to by law because his injury took place on Russian soil – meaning it did not fall under the rules of Russia’s “special military operation”.

“It is unfair, I am fighting in this war just as the others in Ukraine, risking my life,” the soldier said. “If I don’t get the compensation that I am entitled to soon, I will go public and make a major issue of it.”
I keep thinking (quite shallowly, I admit...) that somehow the Russians are playing a trick on us and all H-E-double-toothpicks is going to break loose and overwhelm Ukraine. You just think they can't possibly be this bad. I try to keep up with this fast moving thread as much as I can, and find myself absolutely flabbergasted that Russia's military could be this incapable, inept, undetermined... I mean wow... just.... wow. This is far too long for them to be playing some kind of suck'em in and kill'em game.
 
I keep thinking (quite shallowly, I admit...) that somehow the Russians are playing a trick on us and all H-E-double-toothpicks is going to break loose and overwhelm Ukraine. You just think they can't possibly be this bad. I try to keep up with this fast moving thread as much as I can, and find myself absolutely flabbergasted that Russia's military could be this incapable, inept, undetermined... I mean wow... just.... wow. This is far too long for them to be playing some kind of suck'em in and kill'em game.

It’s kind of shocking, especially to anyone like me who grew up in the Cold War, but I really think they are this bad now. Corruption hollowed them out.
 
I keep thinking (quite shallowly, I admit...) that somehow the Russians are playing a trick on us and all H-E-double-toothpicks is going to break loose and overwhelm Ukraine. You just think they can't possibly be this bad. I try to keep up with this fast moving thread as much as I can, and find myself absolutely flabbergasted that Russia's military could be this incapable, inept, undetermined... I mean wow... just.... wow. This is far too long for them to be playing some kind of suck'em in and kill'em game.
No pro football team runs their full arsenal of plays in an exhibition game.........especially against a team they'll be playing in the regular season
 
No pro football team runs their full arsenal of plays in an exhibition game.........especially against a team they'll be playing in the regular season
If I am interpreting your post correctly then what's happening in Ukraine is an attempt by Putin to draw NATO/U.S. forces into direct conflict with Russian forces giving Putin an "Excuse" to go "Total War" against the U.S. and NATO.

If this is indeed what Putin is planning, he has sure lost a lot of troops, tanks, and rockets in the run-up. Not to mention the moral of said troops has got to be in the crapper by this point in time.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Putin has simply gone Bat-🤬-Crazy and simply doesn't care anymore what happens to his army and may be so out of touch with reality that he doesn't even realize just how bad it is going for Russian forces in Ukraine.

If this is the case, then somebody in Russia needs to give Putin a serious wakeup call.
 
Last edited:
If I am interpreting your post correctly then what's happening in Ukraine is an attempt by Putin to draw NATO/U.S. forces into direct conflict with Russian forces giving Putin an "Excuse" to go "Total War" against the U.S. and NATO.

If this is indeed what Putin is planning, he has sure lost a lot of troops, tanks, and rockets in the run-up. Not to mention the moral of said troops has got to be in the crapper by this point in time.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Putin has simply gone Bat-🤬-Crazy and simply doesn't care anymore what happens to his army and may be so out of touch with reality that he doesn't even realize just how bad it is going for Russian forces in Ukraine.

If this is the case, then somebody in Russia needs to give Putin a serious wakeup
Sorry, that's an incorrect interpretation. I believe that the Russians are trying to achieve their ends as quickly as possible without giving their would be adversaries information on the entire depth of their military capabilities. As an aside it amazes me how quickly Americans are willing to a label any Russian reporting of the Russian- Ukranian conflict as propaganda while without question, accept as gospel any reporting by the American government/media . This coming from a government they lied about Vietnam, lied about Iraq and just yesterday lied about the lack of availability of a COVID vaccine before the current administration took office
 
I believe that the Russians are trying to achieve their ends as quickly as possible without giving their would be adversaries information on the entire depth of their military capabilities
If that were the case then they wouldn't have used their hypersonic missiles against Ukraine.
You don't go into the boxing ring with one arm tied behind your back.
We learned that lesson in Vietnam, and showed it in Desert Storm.
The Russian military is just not as adept as we thought.
 
If that were the case then they wouldn't have used their hypersonic missiles against Ukraine.
You don't go into the boxing ring with one arm tied behind your back.
We learned that lesson in Vietnam, and showed it in Desert Storm.
The Russian military is just not as adept as we thought.
Sorry, but those missiles are not at the Russian technological edge
 
If that were the case then they wouldn't have used their hypersonic missiles against Ukraine.
You don't go into the boxing ring with one arm tied behind your back.
We learned that lesson in Vietnam, and showed it in Desert Storm.
The Russian military is just not as adept as we thought.
I suggest you read Sun Tzu
 
I suggest you read Sun Tzu
I suggest you read up on General Schwarzkopf and the Gulf War. Somewhat more timely than a Chinese general 2500 years ago.
" U.S. commanders from the beginning wanted a quick conflict characterized by decisive, overwhelming force, as opposed to the gradual escalation of U.S. involvement as had been seen in Vietnam.[85] Schwarzkopf in particular was adamant to avoid repeating many of the policies governing military operations in Vietnam, especially the slow escalation of air power and troop forces. "
 
Last edited:
No pro football team runs their full arsenal of plays in an exhibition game.........especially against a team they'll be playing in the regular season
So the Russian generals being knocked off in Ukraine are the third stringers?
Coach Putin is keeping his starter generals in reserve for the regular season?
I didn't know there was an exhibition and a regular season in war.
At this rate Coach Putin won't be able to field a team for any "regular" season.
Dang, he won't even have enough uniforms, helmets and cleats.
😄
 
Supposedly Turkey's president Erdogan may be opposed to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
He says that some Scandinavian countries support anti Turkish terrorists like the Kurds.
It was surprising to me that if even one NATO member objects to an application by a nation they can veto that application. So it can be 29 in favor, one against and the application is rejected.
I'm guessing there will be some heavy lobbying between Turkey and Washington in the immediate future.
 
You don't go into the boxing ring with one arm tied behind your back.
Especially against a country the size of the Ukraine. I mean, it's insane to go in there in the 1st place, but with one arm tied behind your back is utter ludicrous.

We learned that lesson in Vietnam, and showed it in Desert Storm.
Probably the biggest learns from those conflicts was the limitations and effectiveness of the capability and accompanying strategy in an actual real conflict. The shortcomings, the improvements, the corrective actions and the preventative measures.

TP
 
As an aside it amazes me how quickly Americans are willing to a label any Russian reporting of the Russian- Ukranian conflict as propaganda while without question, accept as gospel any reporting by the American government/media . This coming from a government they lied about Vietnam, lied about Iraq and just yesterday lied about the lack of availability of a COVID vaccine before the current administration took office
So, maybe we should listen to non-U.S. based media, like BBC, Reuters, Al Jazeera, and many other independent sources that are all saying the same thing?
 
So, maybe we should listen to non-U.S. based media, like BBC, Reuters, Al Jazeera, and many other independent sources that are all saying the same thing?
Or the Russian journalists or activists who have had to flee Russia in order to tell the truth?
Or the ones that Putin’s goon squad has tried to silence with poison?
 
No pro football team runs their full arsenal of plays in an exhibition game.........especially against a team they'll be playing in the regular season

LOL!

This is not some kind of Russian rope-a-dope strategy to lull everyone into a false sense of security before they spring their secret trap. They went in with everything they have, and they are getting their asses kicked, because they suck. They let their military rot, and now it’s worthless.
 
Back
Top