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Mushtang

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... "See EU later"!

Apparently they barely squeaked out a vote to leave the European Union. From what I've been able to tell they wanted to leave mainly because:
1) They were paying out a LOT of money to the Union and getting very little in return.
2) They were being told how their borders would be controlled and they didn't have any say on who was allowed to come and go.

Sounds like two good reasons to me.

The good news for the USA (where I live) is that the drop in the exchange rate is probably going to make it more affordable to make a trip to London with the family in the next few years. I was there on business about 8 years ago and loved it and have really wanted to go back with the loved ones. At the time the exchange rate was about 2 to 1 so everything was twice as much there as it was here. Not good for a vacation spot.
 

Marc_G

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We have several UK forum participants and I would be interested to read their views.

My take is this will be a horrific mess. Between the uncertainty that will slow investments and reduce job creation, the cascade of realignment like Scotland and Ireland are now talking about, and the disruption to how people choose to travel and retire, in my view the UK has just slit their own throat.

Time will tell.
 

grouch

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My guess is that it will be a mess for a while but in the longer run they will be much better off. Good on them. That said, I don't live in the UK and not sure of the average pulse over there.
 

Daddyisabar

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My concern is for the wealthy London banker driving his Rolls Royce and selling financial services abroad. Will he have to team up with the Scotts and Northern Ireland? Looks like the beginning of the end for the UK. If the Pound falls to a Dollar I can fly over the pond to the English Pub and drink all the delicious Ales on tap! Then head off to Germany to watch Rolls Royces being built by young immigrant labor, and then drink all the yummy dopplebock lager beer. Yes, that is the ticket, all the blue colored bits on the map that voted to stay, start drinking heavily!

Pict launch 1.jpg

Pict launch 8.jpg
 
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Winston

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... "See EU later"!

Apparently they barely squeaked out a vote to leave the European Union. From what I've been able to tell they wanted to leave mainly because:
1) They were paying out a LOT of money to the Union and getting very little in return.
2) They were being told how their borders would be controlled and they didn't have any say on who was allowed to come and go.

Sounds like two good reasons to me.

The good news for the USA (where I live) is that the drop in the exchange rate is probably going to make it more affordable to make a trip to London with the family in the next few years. I was there on business about 8 years ago and loved it and have really wanted to go back with the loved ones. At the time the exchange rate was about 2 to 1 so everything was twice as much there as it was here. Not good for a vacation spot.
52% leave, 48% remain, indicating that 48% of voters in the UK fell for the fear mongering campaign.

In the end, it was all about a choice between UK sovereignty or being tied to obedience to a HUGE unelected bureaucracy in Brussels. Brits have just very, very wisely unchained themselves from a sinking ship that could never have worked in the long run due to the way it was designed. For it to work, every nation within it would have been, among other things, absolutely required to give up fiscal budget sovereignty. This was pointed out as one of the fatal flaws at the inception of the union by those who have since been proven to be so very correct.

Two possible paths are ahead - either a slow, deep decline of the EU into a severe basket case like Japan, now being kept from a catastrophic, self reinforcing economic collapse spiral by insane central bank monetary tricks. One of those tricks.:

How the Bank of Japan Now Owns 90% of the Top 10 Nikkei Stocks (BOJ)

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/052516/how-bank-japan-now-owns-90-top-10-stocks-boj.asp

OR a huge FX or bond market (both VASTLY larger markets than mere equity [stock] markets) collapse caused by some unknown trigger event (as Lehman was). The banks of mainland Europe, especially Germany, are far more leveraged than were the U.S. banks before the global financial crisis which was never really sustainably fixed, just papered over with central bank monetary tricks, now for the first time worldwide.

Don't even get me started on China's massive, insurmountable problems... Their growth greatly helped to rescue the world during the last financial crisis. This time, they're more likely to trigger one.

The entire world has finally reached "peak debt." All fiat money is created from thin air solely through the issuance of new debt. When that money is created, the money to pay the INTEREST on that money is NOT created. In order to create that extra money, economic growth and the issuance of MORE debt is required.

Any growth of debt or an economy at a certain percent rate is necessarily an exponential one and the slope of that curve will get increasingly steep over time, reaching a point where the needed economic growth rate and growth rate in debt is not possible. That's the oversimplified, but ball park explanation. That's where were at, worldwide in all of the developed economies.

How did we get here? Simple. The essential Darwinian force in TRUE Capitalism called "bankruptcy" has not been allowed for DECADES for those who, through their own stupid, greedy actions, deserved to fail. Instead, they were rescued at the expense of everyone via trillions in Congressional deficit spending and via monetary manipulations of the cartel of 12 private banks called the Federal Reserve (which is NOT a "federal" agency by the usual definition, BTW).

This creates the "too big to fail" moral hazard which gives speculators no incentive to act responsibly since they know they'll be bailed out if they fail. Heads they win, tails you lose. Even the now proven to be "ivory tower idiot" Alan Greenspan has said, and I'll paraphrase, "Too big to fail is too big to allow to exist in a Capitalist system." And, yet, due to the powers that be's failure to make the economically painful but correct choices, here we are.

Bankruptcies FLUSH DEBT from the system, resetting the slope of the debt curve to a more manageable one. (note that effect in the graph below). Bankruptcies haven't been allowed for the big guys because we don't have true free market capitalism at the macro levels, we have crony capitalism which shouldn't even be called "capitalism." It should be called "corporatism."



Notice anything very out of the ordinary with the blue line (Fed-set interest rate) in the graph below? Rates are being held at near zero for a length of time far beyond anything ever before seen in the hopes of kickstarting the sort of economic growth that simply can't be started due to peak debt, maintaining instead only near stagnation:



This brilliant Brit comedy skit from years ago is still 100% correct in the intuitive points it makes. The EU debt crisis that was so much in the news back then has only been papered over by government deficit spending and central bank monetary tricks which will only make the eventual, inevitable catastrophic day of reckoning or the depth of a slow deep decline even worse.:

[video=youtube;I5QwKEwo4Bc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc[/video]

Oh, yeah, here's an example of the sort of accuracy you can expect from the ivory tower PhD idiots in charge, locked into a religious belief in their simplistic garbage economic theory and the models based upon it being used to centrally plan the economies of the world, locked to their garbage theory due to something called "theory induced blindness" and the fact that governments and banks still love it because that theory tells them what they WANT to here - that you can BORROW your way to prosperity while not having to make any hard choices.:



And here's news that's very hard to find other than on a RUSSIAN news organ site. Wonder why? I only found it via an economic news concentrator site:

Switzerland withdraws longstanding application to join EU - 16 Jun 16

https://www.rt.com/news/346884-switzerland-eu-membership-application-rejected/

"Hannes Germann, also representing Schaffhausen, highlighted the symbolic importance of the vote, comparing it to Iceland’s decision to drop its membership bid in 2015."

BTW, the country which will come out on top in all of this? The U.S. of A. Trust me.
 

CzTeacherMan

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This one time, I posted a rocket build thread on a political forum and people were so confused.
 

djs

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This one time, I posted a rocket build thread on a political forum and people were so confused.
That's nothing. I was once on a forum about locks, and when I posted about a lock, I got my thread locked! What's up with that?
 

CzTeacherMan

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That's nothing. I was once on a forum about locks, and when I posted about a lock, I got my thread locked! What's up with that?
A forum about locks? Sounds amazingly bracing.
 

tmacklin

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Winston, you have a way of putting things in their proper perspective. I especially enjoyed the video by Clarke and Dawe on the European Debt Crisis. Puts things in terms an old bloke like me can understand! :cheers:
 

djs

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A forum about locks? Sounds amazingly bracing.
I'd link you to the "lock lounge" but my lock link luck has taken a licking lately. Likely later on I can look, and my lack of luck will lift.
 

Mushtang

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This one time, I posted a rocket build thread on a political forum and people were so confused.
That's nothing. I was once on a forum about locks, and when I posted about a lock, I got my thread locked! What's up with that?
A forum about locks? Sounds amazingly bracing.
I'd link you to the "lock lounge" but my lock link luck has taken a licking lately. Likely later on I can look, and my lack of luck will lift.
This is an off topic thread about the UK leaving the EU. Please open a separate thread to discuss locks, lock threads, lock forums, etc.
 

Winston

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Winston, you have a way of putting things in their proper perspective. I especially enjoyed the video by Clarke and Dawe on the European Debt Crisis. Puts things in terms an old bloke like me can understand! :cheers:
Thanks. If it wasn't simple, I wouldn't understand it.

Breaking now - EXCLUSIVE » Fmr. Fed Chair Greenspan to CNBC: "This is the worst period I recall since I've been in public service."

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/746358604635250688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw (video)

Two things - first of all, "public service" is a bit too flattering IMO. I'm sure that's what you thought you were doing. Second, do you want to see the reason for this? Look in a mirror.
 

JohnRE

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This had very little to with anything other than a complex and destructive power play by far right wing individuals all of whom are wealthy enough (and their allies) not worry about the impact and losses inflicted by the upheaval. They have sold a lie to 17 million and will no ride to power in an unelected flurry and put the final nail in the UK coffin (so much for gaining democratic representation).

Privatise education... Sell of the NHS and enforce health insurance bought from private companies... Remove legal protect for workers... Driving through TTIP so multinationals can finish stripping the nation...

Already promises to the population for redirecting money from the EU to the NHS have been back-tracked and denied!

Hey ho.
 

Winston

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This is an off topic thread about the UK leaving the EU. Please open a separate thread to discuss locks, lock threads, lock forums, etc.
Agree about a thread about locks which deserve their own thread(s). But this thread isn't "off topic" since this is "The Watering Hole."
 

Mushtang

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Agree about a thread about locks which deserve their own thread(s). But this thread isn't "off topic" since this is "The Watering Hole."
The thread isn't about rockets, which is why it's in the Off Topic forum. That doesn't mean that it's okay to hijack threads and derail them into discussions on locks and other things not related to the topic of the thread.

I'm asking nicely. Please, with a cherry on top, take the lock discussion to a different place. Thanks.
 

CzTeacherMan

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This is an off topic thread about the UK leaving the EU. Please open a separate thread to discuss locks, lock threads, lock forums, etc.
Perhaps we can continue the thread of the thread by making the thread about threads. Example: a thread of threaded threads is a kind of a yarn, but threading threads through needles depends entirely on my British friends high quality skills with threaded threads of thread. Then, the thread about threads is on topic because the central thread of the thread is about the UK, so a thread in which I one mention a British bloke in my thread, especially regarding his threaded threading abilities in said thread entirely fits within the thread.
 

Daddyisabar

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I put in PICTURES of an angry PICT rocket. Did that help? Seems like the folks in the English and Welsh countryside have had enough. More congreve rocketry I say! The rockets red glare!
 

tmacklin

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But what about Lock Ness? Maybe it's time to Lock and Load. :facepalm:
 

djs

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Not sure how there is a rule in "off topic" discussion that the topic has to stay on the original topic that it was started on? Isn't the point of it to allow random discussion?

I know y'all got your panties in a bundle that your blatantly political threads get derailed- but face it- there's lots of places on the internet to discuss this stuff, and I'd rather piss in the watering hole than just listen to people go back and forth on politics.

So..... who likes locks?
 

AlfaBrewer

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The referendum yesterday is non-binding. Until and unless Parliament decides to "see EU later", no one's going anywhere.
 

CzTeacherMan

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I'm thinking of building a rocket called "Right Wing and Left Wing" ...
It'll barely hold itself together until it gets a little warm outside. The tiniest amount of heat will result in it ripping apart and eating itself.
The electronics alone will be a nightmare.
 

Winston

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This had very little to with anything other than a complex and destructive power play by far right wing individuals all of whom are wealthy enough (and their allies) not worry about the impact and losses inflicted by the upheaval. They have sold a lie to 17 million and will no ride to power in an unelected flurry and put the final nail in the UK coffin (so much for gaining democratic representation).

Privatise education... Sell of the NHS and enforce health insurance bought from private companies... Remove legal protect for workers... Driving through TTIP so multinationals can finish stripping the nation...

Already promises to the population for redirecting money from the EU to the NHS have been back-tracked and denied!

Hey ho.
First of all, the powers that be were FULLY 100% against this very publicly. Second, this is the start of the economic hard choices that MUST be made. That which cannot continue indefinitely will not do so. Eventually, market forces will cause a correction. The only POLITICS involved in this worldwide fiasco are the ones trying to AVOID that reality. Like the forces of nature, economic reality and MATH cannot be done away with, only fought for while. The current efforts to fight reality are only serving to add huge amounts of potential energy into a coiled spring of economic destruction. The sooner we make the hard choices, take our medicine and, hopefully, gradually release that energy via intelligent choices, the better.

Please don't misguide this into yet another phony left/right paradigm farce. There is only one thing involved in both of the phony left and right divisions - M O N E Y. Have that and you also have the second most desirable thing - P O W E R.
 

Cabernut

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First off... Ignore the trolls, let the admins do their job. General web forum etiquette dictates that if you're not an admin or moderator, don't act like one.

Back on topic...
Well thought out and sourced, Winston! I'm excited for the future of Britain, I know they'll do well. It may take a few years for the adjustment, but in the long run they'll be better off.

I couldn't help but be reminded of this famous scene:

[youtube]-8bqQ-C1PSE[/youtube]
 

CZ Brat

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I saw a quote from a Brit in a news article about the Brexit. The person said:

"When Donald Trump congratulates you on your political decision.... You know you F'd up"
 

Winston

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The thread isn't about rockets, which is why it's in the Off Topic forum. That doesn't mean that it's okay to hijack threads and derail them into discussions on locks and other things not related to the topic of the thread.

I'm asking nicely. Please, with a cherry on top, take the lock discussion to a different place. Thanks.
I'm on your side. It's an effort to intentionally derail this thread for some reason.
 

Winston

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The referendum yesterday is non-binding. Until and unless Parliament decides to "see EU later", no one's going anywhere.
True, but:

Britain Doesn’t Have to Abide by the Results of the E.U. Referendum

http://time.com/4381645/eu-referendum-brexit-sovereign-parliament-results/

Excerpt:

[snipped - ways Parliament could ignore the results of the referendum]

Here’s the thing — none of this is likely to happen. Cameron, or whoever replaces him, will almost certainly invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (the mechanism for leaving the E.U.) or begin other negotiations designed to withdraw.

Why? Because to do otherwise would be to go against the will of the people. 17.4 million voters have made it clear that they do want to leave the E.U., and there would be revolution in the streets if those votes were ignored. Cameron has said repeatedly he will respect the results of the vote.


-----

Trouble is, Cameron has resigned. Whether or not his replacement is more for or against Brexit and how Parliament's actions turn out will tell you who is REALLY in charge, won't it...
 

Winston

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I saw a quote from a Brit in a news article about the Brexit. The person said:

"When Donald Trump congratulates you on your political decision.... You know you F'd up"
1. Please keep US politics out of this.
2. You'd be far better off looking at who was AGAINST Brexit to know what it's really all about.
 

Daddyisabar

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My quarter English heritage is calling upon me to pour a glass of Milk Stout, build a congreve rocket and then blast away at the Continentals, where ever they may be.
 
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