Soyuz has Missed Orbital Insertion and Coming Back to Earth

Discussion in 'The Watering Hole' started by OverTheTop, Oct 11, 2018.

  1. Oct 11, 2018 #1

    OverTheTop

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  2. Oct 11, 2018 #2

    OverTheTop

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    THE CREW IS SAFE

    Update: Seems the crew is safe after their ballistic entry. S&R crew still about 1h away.
     
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  3. Oct 11, 2018 #3

    JStarStar

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  4. Oct 11, 2018 #4

    sooner.boomer

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    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  5. Oct 11, 2018 #5

    jadebox

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    That is some time after the escape tower would have, or should have, been jettisoned. So, I wonder if the reports of it being used to separate the capsule are incorrect.

    Anyway, we will learn more later. I am just relieved that the crew is apparently okay. Must have been a scary ride.

    -- Roger
     
  6. Oct 11, 2018 #6

    sooner.boomer

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    Watching the video and listening to the running commentary, first the escape tower is jettisoned, then the boosters shut down and are separated. You can see a bunch of stuff go in different directions. The boosters do not look like they came away cleanly and simultaneously, forming a symmetric "cross" pattern. I think it was about another minute or so before they separated the capsule from the rocket to begin recovery. Also - prior to staging/separation, it looked like there was some "wiggle" in the exhaust trail. In the capsule video, the astronauts were shaken side-to-side a couple of times before the really rough stuff at the end. Watch whatever it is that's hanging down.

    The Soyuz spacecraft consists of three parts, the Orbital module (on top), the Descent module (where the astronauts ride on the way up/down), and the Service module. The Service module has rocket engines which would have seperated the Soyuz from the rocket, and then would have been used for braking for reentry.

    It's interesting that the graphics in the video progressed as though nothing had gone wrong. Makes me think they use a "canned" animation rather than live telemetry.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
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  7. Oct 11, 2018 #7

    shreadvector

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    You need an escape tower to rapidly pull the capsule away from the fireball of an exploding booster or to boost it to a safe altitude for parachute deployment if a failure occurs at low altitude.

    If the 'second stage', which is the core, stops when the strap-on boosters separate, then there is no need for an emergency separation. You just detach when it is the correct time (like before you plummet back to earth). Ditto for an anomoly where one or more strap-ons fail to separate and the central core ('second stage') then shuts down as a result of an automated abort sequence.

    Bad vibrations in the video seem to indicate a strap-on separation issue.

    We should ask a strap-on expert. Where is that limo driver when you need him?
     
  8. Oct 11, 2018 #8

    Winston

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  9. Oct 11, 2018 #9

    sooner.boomer

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    Someone told me the problem was that the launch system went into a forced Win10 upgrade just before launch and it erased the files relating to staging.
     
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  10. Oct 11, 2018 #10

    shreadvector

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  11. Oct 11, 2018 #11

    Cl(VII)

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  12. Oct 11, 2018 #12

    lakeroadster

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    Glad they made it back. Pretty amazing.
     
  13. Oct 11, 2018 #13

    JStarStar

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    Despite all the snotty comments online, in fact the Soyuz suborbital abort procedure appears to have worked pretty much perfectly.
     
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  14. Oct 11, 2018 #14

    BBowmaster

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    Yep. Perfect launches are rare. Resilience and safety are important and the Soyuz program is quite mature in that regard. I’d go up tomorrow if offered. I imagine the astronaut and cosmonaut involved would as well.
     
  15. Oct 11, 2018 #15

    JStarStar

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    I believe the last figures I saw put the overall Soyuz launch success rate at about 95-97 percent.

    And of course the Soyuz spacecraft is designed (unlike the shuttle) that booster failure is reasonably survivable.

    I believe this now makes three manned Soyuz launches that had to abort during launch phase, with the survival of the crew.

    However, some geniuses online were snarking off that a shuttle crew in a similar circumstance would have been "dead meat" -- actually an abort similar to this one (no vehicle separation until after strap-on booster jettison) would probably be the most survivable type of shuttle abort.
     
  16. Oct 12, 2018 #16

    vcp

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    Sorry, I don't have an article link, but I was reading that this might require the ISS to go unmanned for a period. The current crew has to leave because their Soyuz warranty is running out. The only thing that would allow them to stay would be to send an unmanned Soyuz to replace it.
     
  17. Oct 12, 2018 #17

    Winston

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    ISS IS RACING THE CLOCK AFTER SOYUZ FAILURE
    11 Oct 2018

    https://hackaday.com/2018/10/11/int...ng-the-clock-after-soyuz-failure/#more-328620

    Excerpts:

    ISS crews are rotated out on a six month schedule because that’s about how long a Soyuz capsule can remain viable in orbit. It has a design life of only 215 days, any longer than that and the vehicle’s corrosive propellants will degrade their tanks [not correct according to the video below - it's not the tanks but the propellant that degrades - hydrogen peroxide decomposition in the descent module RCS tanks - W]. Current ISS crew members Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor arrived at the station in June on Soyuz MS-09, so the clock has nearly run out for their spacecraft.

    If Soyuz MS-09 is left attached to the Station past its design life, it will become unusable. In the worst case, it could even start leaking propellant and endanger the Station. The crew would be forced to cut the spacecraft loose, leaving themselves stranded. This is an option that simply will not be considered by either NASA or Roscosmos. Under no circumstances will either agency intentionally leave three humans in space with no way to bring them home.

    If nothing changes, the current crew will therefore be forced to depart before their only ride home literally eats itself. This would leave the Station unmanned until Soyuz can be flown again and bring a new crew. As there’s no telling when that might be, this would be a crushing blow to ISS operations. It could potentially start another domino effect of delaying future missions and experiments, such as the unmanned test flight of SpaceX’s new Dragon capsule which is currently slated to arrive at the Station in April.

    There is however at least one contingency plan which has historic precedent. Roscosmos could attempt to launch the Soyuz MS-11 spacecraft on December 20th as originally planned, but without the crew. If the booster fails again, at worst they will have only lost the hardware and no human life. But if it survives the trip into space, it could be remotely guided to the ISS, and serve as the crew’s new return vehicle. This would allow them to remain aboard the Station for another six months, hopefully enough time to complete the accident investigation and resume normal launches.

    This is precisely what happened in 1979 aboard the Salyut 6 space station. When Soyuz 33 suffered an engine failure before docking with the orbiting outpost, it not only deprived the Salyut 6 crew of additional members, but called into question the reliability of their own identical spacecraft. No longer sure they had a safe return vehicle, the crew was forced to remain in orbit until the remotely controlled Soyuz 34 could be sent to the station as a lifeboat. The crew left Salyut 6 aboard Soyuz 34 after commanding their original spacecraft to re-enter the atmosphere by remote control. Ultimately both spacecraft landed safely, with no human or material loss.


     
  18. Oct 13, 2018 #18

    afadeev

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    Indeed.
    Everything else is fascinating from technically standpoint, but otherwise significantly less important.

    Will ISS have to go without a crew for a bit - maybe. I doubt anyone will be upset about that outcome, other than folks scheduled to fly next (who may get bumped).
    Will Soyuz investigation reveal the root cause of failure and will it get fixed - sure. We'll all read about it with interest.

    By early 2Q'19 SpaceX with crewed Dragon should be on its way to ISS, thus lifting NASA dependence on Soyuz.
    Couldn't come at a better time!

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-spacex-agree-on-plans-for-crew-launch-day-operations

    a
     
  19. Oct 13, 2018 #19

    Rex R

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    most likely they will send an uncrewed Soyuz up as a test, if it works great, if not they can use the current Soyuz to come home.
    Rex
     
  20. Oct 13, 2018 #20

    cvanc

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    Yeah, I agree this seems to be the best way forward. In fact I'll be surprised if they do something other than this.
     
  21. Oct 13, 2018 #21

    JStarStar

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    I don't have up-to-date figures, but I believe the Soyuz still has a success rate over 95 percent-- unless the investigation turns up something really serious with the launch vehicle, I wouldn't expect the grounding to be lengthy.
     

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