Some interesting (non-partisan) reports coming out

smstachwick

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Define "fault". Define "conclusive". In general, perhaps, however that's kind of too broad. For example, I haven't read a report yet that doesn't say the origin of this pandemic was China. Of course that doesn't mean it wasn't "natural" or was on purpose/nefarious so that definition of "fault" matters. If you are referring to jumping on TV and saying it was/wasn't a "lab leak", then that doesn't necessarily imply a bad "fault" either. That said, there are some that see it as meaning "on purpose" and not an accident. So in my opinion, putting the origin on the lab is accurate, the more difficult question that should be answered is "how" (or why) did it happen and what are they doing to stop it from happening again. (;) pretty sure they already know the answer but aren't sharing).

I do apologize, my intent didn’t make it to my fingers. I probably was considering too many revisions at the same time, please allow me to backpedal and rephrase a bit.

Jumping on cable TV and endorsing any particular theory beyond what the evidence merits is not research. So much research remains to be done and yes, China’s lack of transparency in the matter doesn’t help things. That’s frustrating but it does not necessarily indicate whether the virus was naturally-occurring or manmade.

Remember, China is not a monolith. The government was looking for heads to roll, and many people had reason to cover up their own containment blunders, even without a laboratory origin.

Regarding social censoring, I agree with your opinion on the matter. However, we have 1A protections against opinions so others may not. In fact, the scenario is pretty "Switzerland" if you think about it. Half the people think they are in Group A and everyone else is in Group B.

If by “Switzerland” you mean that the evidence does not support any specific conclusion, I’d say that that’s valid.

That is not to say that the two camps are equivalent though. It is obvious that the virus’s origin in China has led to spikes in anti-Chinese sentiment and violence globally. While this sort of thing will be impossible to avoid altogether since the virus actually did originate there, inflating the conclusiveness of lab leak/bioweapon theories beyond what the evidence merits will inevitably prolong this problem and make it worse.

Aggressively pushing a theory for natural origin is no less fallacious, but it does pose less of this kind of threat and is therefore less irresponsible.

This is why the media has an ethical duty to report the virus’s origins as accurately as possible given the available evidence and show people the door for jumping the gun on confidently declaring a manmade origin prematurely. It’s both unfounded and harmful.

For some reason I got carried away with the quotation marks in this post...maybe everyone will just visualize them as "finger quotes". 😆

I think I get it.
 

Banzai88

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Just when it seems the "evidence" is swinging one way, this comes out:
From uber rare cave bats in the darkest reaches of China to murderous trash pandas.

This has gone past the sublime and into the surreal. Won't be long now until Covid is linked to monkeys flying out of our butts, most assuredly with some single source peer review attached to it.

And then what will we believe? o_O:headspinning:
 
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This actually reinforces the conclusions of one of two studies, since peer reviewed and published, on this thread over a year ago:
I remember making a joke about racoon dogs.
From uber rare cave bats in the darkest reaches of China to murderous trash pandas.
Don't forget the pangolins.
😄
 

Funkworks

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Money motivates different people to different degrees, and some seek objectivity more than others.

Scientists are trained to be objective, and paid to be objective. Those providing grants expect the truth. A person providing false information is not a scientist anymore and will lose funding.

Good papers include a methodology and its limits and everyone is welcome to improve upon it.
 
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boatgeek

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Just remember to follow the Dollars or Yen that funded each fo these papers.
So who provided the funding? So that we can keep that in mind. I'm a lot less concerned about dollars or yen than I am about yuan.
Money motivates different people to different degrees, and some seek objectivity more than others.

Scientists are trained to be objective, and paid to be objective. Those providing grants expect the truth. A person providing false information is not a scientist anymore and will lose funding.

Good papers include a methodology and its limits and everyone is welcome to improve upon it.
Even I'm not that optimistic. Slanted research will find funding (ahem tobacco companies) from those that benefit from the slant.
 

cwbullet

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So who provided the funding? So that we can keep that in mind. I'm a lot less concerned about dollars or yen than I am about yuan.

Even I'm not that optimistic. Slanted research will find funding (ahem tobacco companies) from those that benefit from the slant.
Many of the studies that looked at an animal origin were funded by China, the NIH, and the CDC. The leaders of these organizations have been reported to have had their finger on the decision making process and results. I am very cautious, today, in taking any of these studies seriously. I think we need an investigative look into how they were funded and the results they propagated.

More and more GOV organizations are beginning to look at the lab leak theory as being the most realistic cause. Until we look into that side and not just shut it down without a scientific and investigative look, we will never know the truth. We may never know the truth, but we owe it to our children to learn from the pandemic.
 

Marc_G

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I'm less concerned with "lab leak versus wet market" (both can be lumped into "dumb things humans do without intending to cause harm") as I am "natural origin versus engineered virus."

The original strain was sequenced early on and analysis by reputable sources didn't find any sequences suggesting obvious engineering, and crafting an artificial virus without such markers would be challenging but admittedly not impossible.

At this point I think the human story is already too muddy and untrustworthy so instead of following the money I prefer to follow the genetics. I think in time we will know for sure, through analysis of various samples and tracing the origins of COVID that way.

In the meantime I read the various reports and let my head turn this way and that much like at a tennis match...
 
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smstachwick

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See, I think it’s fallacious to only follow the money. Humans obviously have biases but to pretend that that there are no examples of our species that are willing to go against the grain and forward a conclusion that is empirically correct but detrimental to them or their sponsors is just plain wrong. Notable examples can be found as early as the dawn of scientific inquiry.

What I would like to see before supporting any particular set of conclusions on the virus’s origin and spread is a meta-analysis of many investigations into the topic and weighing their reproducibility across research organizations with sponsors of diverse objectives. Only then can begin to we control for the bias.

Analyzing scope, methodology, and confidence level to better detect outliers, errors, and fabrications would also be welcome.
 

boatgeek

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I'll just leave this here...


What a brave new world we live in.

View attachment 570009

I really do appreciate the author's boldness in assertion.

Note the other matches - Bat RaTG13 which didn’t appear in this database until after people started questioning the origin of the coronavirus, and is likely to be a synthetic sequence...
In other words, this specific match to COVID must be synthetic because it appeared after people started researching COVID. Way to handwave away contradictory information.

I would also appreciate any genomic researchers who happen to be hanging around giving an opinion on that particular blog post.
 

Funkworks

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So who provided the funding? So that we can keep that in mind. I'm a lot less concerned about dollars or yen than I am about yuan.

Even I'm not that optimistic. Slanted research will find funding (ahem tobacco companies) from those that benefit from the slant.
Any idiot can say a paper is slanted when they don’t read it.

Finding flaws in the method is much harder.

It remains that the first motivation for research is teachers and professors having to answer tuition-paying students with the right answers.
 
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boatgeek

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Any idiot can say a paper is slanted when they don’t read it.

Finding flaws in the method is much harder.
Part of why I asked for the specific funding sources for the papers in question was that I don't have time or expertise to read the papers. If the funding sources were (say) a consortium of US universities, I'd be a lot less worried about bias than if it was from the Chinese government. The fact that nobody raising questions about the funding sources for the papers could identify any funding sources for these papers (as opposed to general gripes about CDC and NIH) indicates to me that there's no there there.
 

Funkworks

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Part of why I asked for the specific funding sources for the papers in question was that I don't have time or expertise to read the papers. If the funding sources were (say) a consortium of US universities, I'd be a lot less worried about bias than if it was from the Chinese government. The fact that nobody raising questions about the funding sources for the papers could identify any funding sources for these papers (as opposed to general gripes about CDC and NIH) indicates to me that there's no there there.

In my experience, those who fund research expect “the truth” and do not try to slant the report or make a final edit. If scrutiny identifies bias, then those involved will lose credibility. That is why I tend to give scientists the benefit of the doubt.

Maybe some orgs have indeed lost credibility. Some bio-groups? Some countries? Others would know better than me.
 
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I'll just leave this here:
The bio-engineered furin cleavage site conspiracy theory was debunked long ago.
It is not a unique sequence. From what I have read some bacteria and other organisms share the same short nucleotide sequence.
Not a medical researcher, just sharing what I've read.
Peace.
 

SDramstad

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I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest that something good came out of this whole pandemic. That is, bio weapons are worthless to use against an enemy force, because it will eventually come back at you. No nation on earth would be safe, including the nation that deploys it. It will eventually go everywhere. Bio weapons are worse then useless. They are suicide.
 
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Project DEFUSE proposal, page 11:


View attachment 570075
You should vet your links before posting:
Excerpt:
"That being said, DARPA has never funded directly, nor indirectly as a subcontractor, any activity or researcher associated with the EcoHealth Alliance or Wuhan Institute of Virology."
 

A-ron

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Excerpt:
"That being said, DARPA has never funded directly, nor indirectly as a subcontractor, any activity or researcher associated with the EcoHealth Alliance or Wuhan Institute of Virology."

Would you be willing to tell the truth if you were in any way involved in gain-of-function research that may have resulted in the deaths of millions of people worldwide? That would be one hell of a mea culpa.
 
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Would you be willing to tell the truth if you were in any way involved in gain-of-function research that may have resulted in the deaths of millions of people worldwide? That would be one hell of a mea culpa.
Ah, so you're saying that DARPA must be lying then?
 

A-ron

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Ah, so you're saying that DARPA must be lying then?

I'm saying that there's several million reasons to lie for all those involved in gain-of-function research. For all I know, it could be one of those rare instances where the government's actually being honest with the public. Personally, I'm not inclined to give them the benefit of all my doubts.

Edit: Looks like DARPA was telling the truth after all, they definitely weren't the organization responsible for this $6.5M Department of Defense project grant awarded to EcoHealth Alliance in 2017...


Description

UNDERSTANDING THE RISK OF BAT-BORNE ZOONOTIC DISEASE EMERGENCE IN WESTERN ASIA
 
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jderimig

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I am not sure gain of function research is a bad thing. Like everything else, the cover-up, if there was one, is bad.

Two questions that are linked:
1. Did the WIV conduct gain of function research?
2. Did the US NIH or other government agency fund the WIV or fund another non-government body that funded WIV?
 
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OverTheTop

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I seem to remember reading that the answer to both of those questions was "yes". Sorry I can't quote source, as it was a couple of years back I heard this, but I remember being quite surprised about the funding.
 

boatgeek

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A law just passed ordering declassification of all information on COVID origins, to be completed in 90 days. There's an exception for national-security sensitive information, so it's not entirely clear to me how much will actually be released.
 
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I'm saying that there's several million reasons to lie for all those involved in gain-of-function research. For all I know, it could be one of those rare instances where the government's actually being honest with the public. Personally, I'm not inclined to give them the benefit of all my doubts.

Edit: Looks like DARPA was telling the truth after all, they definitely weren't the organization responsible for this $6.5M Department of Defense project grant awarded to EcoHealth Alliance in 2017...

So you're saying the Covid virus was bio-engineered through funding by the US government?
Two questions:
1. Then why is the US actively seeking the origins of the virus, and not covering it up?
2. Why doesn't the Chinese government make this public?
A law just passed ordering declassification of all information on COVID origins, to be completed in 90 days. There's an exception for national-security sensitive information, so it's not entirely clear to me how much will actually be released.
I'd be interested to see what new classified piece of information changed the Dept, of Energys' stance.
 
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