Self-driving vehicles.

MClark

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2009
Messages
3,181
Reaction score
1,481
Location
Glendale, AZ
2) I like driving, but for me the big attraction for a full auto driverless system is when I'm driving cross country for a thousand miles.
I would like this, there are roads in the west that go through a lot of nothing.
Last year going to the salt flats for LDRS from Phoenix we drove a Subaru with a driving assistance. As long as there was prominent lane stripes it works good. Didn’t like where a lane merged, would suddenly try to center in the now wider lane. But it’s assistant, not auto pilot.

M
 

BABAR

Builds Rockets for NASA
TRF Supporter
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
9,979
Reaction score
4,620
At least one of the quantum leaps comes when not only do we have self driving cars, but when ALL cars are self driving. All vehicles are integrated into a grid with a master control program that not only controls the cars but also controls the stop lights and everything else. There will be no “human” drivers.

pluses

you can read your paper, start your work day on your laptop if you do work that can be done at least in part on a computer, eat a meal, or as @Peartree suggest, drive at night and sleep in the car instead of hotel.

safety: when ALL the vehicles are controlled by the system, as long as the system doesn’t get hacked (a potential huge vulnerability), it is likely the system will be SAFER than human drivers at least in places where there are no pedestrians or bike riders

efficiency: again, an optimally programmed system will allow maximum traffic flow at maximum speeds. Master system won’t let cars with low tire pressure, bald tires, or other “near breakdown” vehicles on the road. For congested areas, the system will tell you when to leave your home or office to spend the least time stuck in traffic.

fewer total vehicles. Someone made a good point that most vehicles spend the vast majority of each 24 hour day parked either at work or at home. When my Dad had to give up driving, since he did so little of it anyway, basically to the gym and back once a day, once a week back and forth to church, and a few other things, Uber wasn’t much more than the costs of car depreciation, gas, maintenance, and insurance.

enjoy the view. My wife and I just visited Banff and Lake Louise, it was nice just relaxing looking out the bus windows rather than at least one (and often both!) of us concentrating on traffic.

minuses:

flexibility. you will need to tell system in advance when you need to be where, and it will tell you when you need to leave. There may be little ”slack” in the system if your realize “oops, left my book report on the table” or “I need to swing by Hobby Lobby on way to launch to pick up motors.” Autonomous cars (at least if controlled/coordinated by a master system) ironically make for les autonomous passengers. You will need to plan ahead. THIS part people aren’t gonna like.

system hacking. I can see some nefarious governmental and non-governmental agencies goofing up the system for both malicious or sometimes (unfortunately) entertainment value. What’s the saying, “to err is human, to really muck things up you need a computer”?

interfacing with non-grid systems: any system under “master control”is gonna have problems with independent random systems like pedestrians, bicycles, pets, horses, deer, etc.

courtesy (or lack thereof.): a master control system will operate a fleet of vehicles, less likely than private ownership. Hopefully the car that picks you up won’t have just carried someone who threw up over the back seat and didn‘t bother to clean it up.

Big Brother: although we are likely frequently tracked anyway with our phones, facial recognition software and cameras in many places, if operating under a master control system, the government (and likely anybody else) knows where you are and based on your patterns, where you are likely to be Tomorrow or Friday or next month. And if government doesn’t like you or finds you suspicious, they may either lock you out of the system or even worse, highjack your ride to take you to nearest police station.

TANSTAAFL, as Heinlein put it. There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.



Written by Asimov in 1953, is scarily close to potential reality in 2022.
 

cls

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 21, 2009
Messages
2,532
Reaction score
233
last year going to the salt flats for LDRS from Phoenix we drove a Subaru with a driving assistance. As long as there was prominent lane stripes it works good.

That's the first thing I turned off in my 2022 Subaru. Soooo annoying, beeping all the time, like having the mother in law nagging from the front seat.

The front collision system, on the other hand, has proved its worth many times in SF Bay Area traffic.
 

icyclops

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
473
Reaction score
221
I know there has been accidents, but Tesla drivers must be approved with a safety record before they're allowed to use the FSD software. This should weed out people who do stupid stuff. This group of ( > 100k ) customers are essentially part of the development team, sending data to the employees while using their car for their daily business.

🚗🤖🚗🤖🚗🤖🚗🤖🚗🤖🚗🤖

Intro to the 5 levels of autonomy:


Ya, kinda like Microsoft having their customers find out all their software bugs instead of making it right the first time…..when tech works its great and when it doesn’t look out. Moving ahead cautiously is the way to go…we will see how the auto companies move and What the outcomes will be. Cross your fingers….
 

icyclops

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
473
Reaction score
221
At least one of the quantum leaps comes when not only do we have self driving cars, but when ALL cars are self driving. All vehicles are integrated into a grid with a master control program that not only controls the cars but also controls the stop lights and everything else. There will be no “human” drivers.

pluses

you can read your paper, start your work day on your laptop if you do work that can be done at least in part on a computer, eat a meal, or as @Peartree suggest, drive at night and sleep in the car instead of hotel.

safety: when ALL the vehicles are controlled by the system, as long as the system doesn’t get hacked (a potential huge vulnerability), it is likely the system will be SAFER than human drivers at least in places where there are no pedestrians or bike riders

efficiency: again, an optimally programmed system will allow maximum traffic flow at maximum speeds. Master system won’t let cars with low tire pressure, bald tires, or other “near breakdown” vehicles on the road. For congested areas, the system will tell you when to leave your home or office to spend the least time stuck in traffic.

fewer total vehicles. Someone made a good point that most vehicles spend the vast majority of each 24 hour day parked either at work or at home. When my Dad had to give up driving, since he did so little of it anyway, basically to the gym and back once a day, once a week back and forth to church, and a few other things, Uber wasn’t much more than the costs of car depreciation, gas, maintenance, and insurance.

enjoy the view. My wife and I just visited Banff and Lake Louise, it was nice just relaxing looking out the bus windows rather than at least one (and often both!) of us concentrating on traffic.

minuses:

flexibility. you will need to tell system in advance when you need to be where, and it will tell you when you need to leave. There may be little ”slack” in the system if your realize “oops, left my book report on the table” or “I need to swing by Hobby Lobby on way to launch to pick up motors.” Autonomous cars (at least if controlled/coordinated by a master system) ironically make for les autonomous passengers. You will need to plan ahead. THIS part people aren’t gonna like.

system hacking. I can see some nefarious governmental and non-governmental agencies goofing up the system for both malicious or sometimes (unfortunately) entertainment value. What’s the saying, “to err is human, to really muck things up you need a computer”?

interfacing with non-grid systems: any system under “master control”is gonna have problems with independent random systems like pedestrians, bicycles, pets, horses, deer, etc.

courtesy (or lack thereof.): a master control system will operate a fleet of vehicles, less likely than private ownership. Hopefully the car that picks you up won’t have just carried someone who threw up over the back seat and didn‘t bother to clean it up.

Big Brother: although we are likely frequently tracked anyway with our phones, facial recognition software and cameras in many places, if operating under a master control system, the government (and likely anybody else) knows where you are and based on your patterns, where you are likely to be Tomorrow or Friday or next month. And if government doesn’t like you or finds you suspicious, they may either lock you out of the system or even worse, highjack your ride to take you to nearest police station.

TANSTAAFL, as Heinlein put it. There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.



Written by Asimov in 1953, is scarily close to potential reality in 2022.
Where is my flying car!
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
This is also less about the actual technology, but I think that the name "Full self-driving" does a disservice to a system that doesn't do 100% of the driving.
Yeah. Not something I would have done either. I guess they thought it would come around sooner. I guess it's also a way to make a buzz. If and when they reach it, it will be a good name then.

I didn't know that. It makes me feel slightly better about the technology, though I also wonder what happens when they release to a broader audience.
I don't think they would release it blindly to anyone. My sense is that they're being extra careful.

when ALL cars are self driving. All vehicles are integrated into a grid with a master control program that not only controls the cars but also controls the stop lights and everything else. There will be no “human” drivers.
That could be done in certain areas, in that some areas could be restricted to self-driving cars only. I think that is very likely. The whole idea of getting their is very gradual.

you can read your paper, start your work day on your laptop if you do work that can be done at least in part on a computer, eat a meal, or as @Peartree suggest, drive at night and sleep in the car instead of hotel.
Yeah, that's when people will not want to go back to dirving, it could eliminate the need for a driver's licence.

safety: when ALL the vehicles are controlled by the system, as long as the system doesn’t get hacked (a potential huge vulnerability), it is likely the system will be SAFER than human drivers at least in places where there are no pedestrians or bike riders
I agree. I think both can co-exist, but robots don't drink and drive, for example. Pedestrians and bicycles don't seem to be big problem, but following the road signs and traffic light certainly helps.

efficiency: again, an optimally programmed system will allow maximum traffic flow at maximum speeds. Master system won’t let cars with low tire pressure, bald tires, or other “near breakdown” vehicles on the road. For congested areas, the system will tell you when to leave your home or office to spend the least time stuck in traffic.
Yep. I think a lot of this could apply to regular cars too. But I think a Master system is much further away in the future. Probably constrained to private fleets or certain geo areas at first.

flexibility. you will need to tell system in advance when you need to be where, and it will tell you when you need to leave. There may be little ”slack” in the system if your realize “oops, left my book report on the table” or “I need to swing by Hobby Lobby on way to launch to pick up motors.” Autonomous cars (at least if controlled/coordinated by a master system) ironically make for les autonomous passengers. You will need to plan ahead. THIS part people aren’t gonna like.
I think this can always be overridden. Passengers could reset the waypoint from their smartphone while on the road.

system hacking. I can see some nefarious governmental and non-governmental agencies goofing up the system for both malicious or sometimes (unfortunately) entertainment value. What’s the saying, “to err is human, to really muck things up you need a computer”?
Yeah. Jobs for cybersecurity experts I guess.

interfacing with non-grid systems: any system under “master control”is gonna have problems with independent random systems like pedestrians, bicycles, pets, horses, deer, etc.
Not sure about that. I think that would be "solved" before any master system is in place. (I don't think a master system for ALL cars will ever happen). The shorter term goals are for independent cars (no car-to-car communications except proximity sensors, cameras etc.).

courtesy (or lack thereof.): a master control system will operate a fleet of vehicles, less likely than private ownership. Hopefully the car that picks you up won’t have just carried someone who threw up over the back seat and didn‘t bother to clean it up.
Cameras, clocks and reporting could send them the cleaning bill.

Big Brother: although we are likely frequently tracked anyway with our phones, facial recognition software and cameras in many places, if operating under a master control system, the government (and likely anybody else) knows where you are and based on your patterns, where you are likely to be Tomorrow or Friday or next month. And if government doesn’t like you or finds you suspicious, they may either lock you out of the system or even worse, highjack your ride to take you to nearest police station.
Yeah, that's why I don't think a master system for all cars is likely.

Ya, kinda like Microsoft having their customers find out all their software bugs instead of making it right the first time…..when tech works its great and when it doesn’t look out. Moving ahead cautiously is the way to go…we will see how the auto companies move and What the outcomes will be. Cross your fingers….
For cars anyway, I get that they need real-life data. The thing is they have to know about all the possible scenarios, just to make the product, and there is no better way than to have 100k users collecting it. I think the customers know this and feel good about participating (I would but others I know wouldn't).
 
Last edited:

John Beans

Founder, Jolly Logic
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
862
Reaction score
236
My wife and I both have Teslas, and most of the miles on both cars (30K and 70K) have been on Autopilot. We also are part of the Full Self Driving Beta program, which self-drives on city streets.

If I lived on a country road and just drove around town Autopilot wouldn't have a lot of value. But we live in busy California and take road trips. Autopilot on long trips and in stop-and-go traffic is so good that we never want to own a car without it. In fact, it now feels more dangerous to be on a freeway without Autopilot engaged. And you arrive much more refreshed than if you had to monotonously lane keep for hours on end. Supervising a car that drives itself on the freeway is not tiring.

I recently rented a Kia with lane keeping and cruise control when I was working with Blue Origin in rural Texas. Unfortunately, the system wasn't nearly as good as Tesla's and the lane keeping had severe limits on how curvy the road could be, and how clear the road lines needed to be. When it couldn't lane keep any more, it quietly disengaged with just one little green steering wheel icon going dark. You had to either notice that or notice that the car was leaving the road on the curve. And the cruise control did not slow down for cars in your lane, making it pretty unsafe in my opinion. After a few days of trying, I stopped using the lane keeping and just steered myself. And if any car was in front of me I had to turn off the cruise control.

As opposed to the freeway, Tesla Autopilot around town is still a bit more stressful than just driving yourself. It works amazingly well, but it can be a little too hesitant at times, and the distances and required intervention times are short, so you really need to be on edge the entire time. It's very cool to keep up with how fast it is improving, but it's not something I'd recommend to a friend. Yet.
 

Peartree

Cyborg Rocketeer
Staff member
Administrator
Global Mod
Joined
Jan 5, 2009
Messages
6,482
Reaction score
2,186
Location
Alliance, Ohio
I'm kind of curious what self-driving vehicles do in ridiculously inclement weather. I don't mean rain. I mean what does it do (as I have) when the weather in Northern Michigan turns to crap, it snows an in an hour for ten hours, and the roads become ice covered, with packed snow on top, and salty slush on top of that, and a two hour drive becomes an eight hour drive? Obviously, my choice, and those humans driving around me, chose to adapt. Although the map and the highway signs gave every indication that we were on the freeway, we all drove as if we were in a school zone. And even then it was a bit of white knuckle driving.

Probably, there's a good answer, but I'm curious how robots understand miserable Northern driving that we get from time to time from Vermont to Montana and beyond.
 

John Beans

Founder, Jolly Logic
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
862
Reaction score
236
I'm kind of curious what self-driving vehicles do in ridiculously inclement weather. I don't mean rain. I mean what does it do (as I have) when the weather in Northern Michigan turns to crap, it snows an in an hour for ten hours, and the roads become ice covered, with packed snow on top, and salty slush on top of that, and a two hour drive becomes an eight hour drive? Obviously, my choice, and those humans driving around me, chose to adapt. Although the map and the highway signs gave every indication that we were on the freeway, we all drove as if we were in a school zone. And even then it was a bit of white knuckle driving.

Probably, there's a good answer, but I'm curious how robots understand miserable Northern driving that we get from time to time from Vermont to Montana and beyond.
I would guess not well. Autopilot is very good in rain (at times I shake my head at how better it is than me when rain makes the lane lines hard for me to follow) , but in zero-vis it would naturally have problems, if it worked at all.

The cameras see a wider spectrum than we do, but they have to be able to see enough to drive. And I doubt they have very much heavy blizzard footage in the training set they use to train the neural nets.

I've never spent extended time driving in heavy weather like that, but it seems to me no matter how well you or the computer drove, getting plowed from behind would still be a huge risk.
 

neil_w

OpenRocketeer
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jul 14, 2015
Messages
14,274
Reaction score
7,676
Location
Northern NJ
Recently, a motorcyclist was killed in Utah by a car on autopilot. I think the accident is still under investigation. This does not me feel good about the autopilot option.
The problem is usually that dumb drivers abuse it, and don't pay attention.

Despite the common wisdom that such systems lull the driver into inattention, I have not found that to be the case at all *for me*, because I use it knowing exactly what I need to do. And as @John Beans has stated, monitoring autopilot is still much more relaxing the doing everything yourself.
 

Rob Campbell

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2014
Messages
2,531
Reaction score
642
Recently, a motorcyclist was killed in Utah by a car on autopilot. I think the accident is still under investigation. This does not me feel good about the autopilot option.
Autopilot technology does not relieve drivers of the responsibility to remain vigilant and override the system when necessary. I hope the technology matures to the point where is becomes safer than manual control, although I feel this is a decade away.
 

boatgeek

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
5,004
Reaction score
4,164
The problem is usually that dumb drivers abuse it, and don't pay attention.

Despite the common wisdom that such systems lull the driver into inattention, I have not found that to be the case at all *for me*, because I use it knowing exactly what I need to do. And as @John Beans has stated, monitoring autopilot is still much more relaxing the doing everything yourself.
And despite anything I said above, it's also entirely possible that I would find supervising a car on autopilot very reasonable once I try it. I absolutely hated the new notifications functions on TRF for about three days, now I never want to go back. :D
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
Gee, I never considered driving my Toyota that onerous a task
Exactly. Having a robot drive a car safely in the real world is more difficult that they first thought, but they still think they can do it. Or at least they're not out of ideas as to how to get there and they keep making progress.

I'm kind of curious what self-driving vehicles do in ridiculously inclement weather.
I think that's a good example of why software engineers need real world data. As with a human driver, I assume the first thing to do is to slow down.

Recently, a motorcyclist was killed in Utah by a car on autopilot. I think the accident is still under investigation. This does not me feel good about the autopilot option.
One case here and there isn't worth much. You have to make comparisons. 1 per month? Per year? What about people killed by a human driven car? Pointless really without statistics. Collisions avoided by autopilot is also something to consider. Not easy to find that data and do the math, but some do it.

Autopilot technology does not relieve drivers of the responsibility to remain vigilant and override the system when necessary. I hope the technology matures to the point where is becomes safer than manual control, although I feel this is a decade away.
What I imagine is that certain zones will be approved for say level 4, while others only for level 2. I think the level of self-driving can be a function of where and when you drive. Taking an off-ramp? Then: 🤖 "Wake-up bud, it's your turn to drive, I don't do downtown." Or vice-versa. Each mile of road could be approved for a certain self-driving level (from 1-5), at a certain time of day, and the system could switch from one to the other based on GPS data, notifying the driver to wake up or relax.

🚗 🤖 🚗 🤖 🚗 🤖

I think I said Tesla's AI day 2 will be this week, but it's been delayed to September 30th. They might have a humanoid robot on FSD by then.

 

BigMacDaddy

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Apr 30, 2021
Messages
1,193
Reaction score
1,405
Location
Northern NJ
What's somewhat interesting to me is how the interior of vehicles will change when they are self-driving. Maybe you will have a microwave, coffee maker, and other gadgets. Maybe some people will have a Hookah built in to the middle of their car with several overstuffed lounge chairs facing each other (would really fit in self-driving VW Bus). For sure a bunch of people will have large 180 degree monitor setups and gaming consoles (it would be ironic if someone is playing a driving simulation while being driven by their self-driving car to their destination but that will almost definitely happen).

I also think that the minor conveniences will be at least as important as these vehicles driving down the highway -- like having the car drop you off in front of your destination and then going to park itself (hopefully in a cheaper parking spot than the lot at your destination).

Maybe the metaverse will really take off and we will not need self driving cars because we will never leave our homes ;)
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
Maybe the metaverse will really take off and we will not need self driving cars because we will never leave our homes ;)
The car will carry a humanoid bot in the back seat to the grocery store, and they'll bring back a week's worth of nachos in the frunk.
 

boatgeek

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
5,004
Reaction score
4,164
Recently, a motorcyclist was killed in Utah by a car on autopilot. I think the accident is still under investigation. This does not me feel good about the autopilot option.
If that's the standard we're going with, a motorist not using autopilot just killed a kid on a bike in a crosswalk out here not too long ago. They went around another car that had stopped for the kid. Somehow, this did not add up to any sort of charges or other consequences for the driver because apparently driving around a car stopped at a marked crosswalk and then mowing down a pedestrian isn't reckless driving. :(:mad:

Anyway. on to our regularly scheduled programming.
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
Last edited:

Woody's Workshop

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Aug 3, 2011
Messages
4,754
Reaction score
489
Location
Reed City, Michigan (Lower)
Ever since the ending of WWII, the American Life Style has been all about where to go and the Automobile. We all still think that today.
Just like our thinking that one single alternative is going to solve the energy problem when fossil fuels runs out...
Our thinking on the automobile needs to change as well. At least somewhat.
Better planning on the individual to get what is needed on a single trip is needed.
Instead of thinking of something you need and make a special trip for it.
The auto has become a big part of convenience and waste, part of the bigger problem we need to solve yesterday.
Self driving electric cars are just fine if they are fueled by solar power and not by fossil fuel burning power stations.
And everyone has ample and equal income to afford to have one. Like everyone could in the 50' & 60's.
I can't even afford an electric wheel chair, let a lone any kind of electric vehicle.
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
And everyone has ample and equal income to afford to have one.
Besides safety, I understand the main payoff of level 5 autonomy is to have fleets of robotaxis running 24/7: cars that never park and drive people around on custom routes for less than the cost of a bus ride. This could allow many people to opt out of car ownership altogether. People would have a choice of:

1. owning a self-driving car and letting it taxi people around 90% of the time they don't use it, while making money and reducing their cost of ownership.

or:

2. not owning a car, and simply calling a self-driving car whenever they need a ride, because there would always be one available somewhere.

Options 1. and 2. could both come out cheaper than owning a "regular" car that has to be parked doing nothing most of the time.
 

NateB

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
2,766
Reaction score
3,324
Location
NE Indiana
Supervising a car that drives itself on the freeway is not tiring.

I think this is the key phrase, supervising the car. Our pilots fly with the autopilot engaged most of the time, but don't stray their hands too far from the collective and cyclic, usually no further than their knee board. The newer autopilot can fly to the numbers on the runway and hold a hover in place, and the pilots often say they are managing all the systems while the computer flies.

It isn't totally hands and brain off. I would love a true self driving car and tune out my surroundings, but we are there yet. Hopefully I see it in my lifetime.
 

bjphoenix

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
1,274
Reaction score
427
I drove 12 hours yesterday. It would have been nice to sit back and read a book, "wake me up when we get there", but I couldn't trust the system enough to do that. I could have flown but a 2.5 hour flight plus all the crap that goes with it is more stressful to me than driving 12 hours. However the biggest reason was that we were going to do Jeep trails and camp so I needed to drive the Jeep with me.

I'm sure that companies will keep working on the self-driving software, somebody probably wants to get rich running fleets of trucks and not paying for drivers. I would like to have the systems that keep you from crossing lane dividers or running off the road, and systems that auto-brake for you if something pulls out in front of you suddenly, but I would still have to drive the vehicle and stay alert. If a person is not constantly engaged in driving the car they may not be alert and ready when they need to intervene for the software.

Some people say that the software doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than human drivers. That might be true and would reduce the overall amount of accidents but I don't think the public will accept it when the software glitches because someone chose the wrong class for their method and kills a crowd of people.
 

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
... reduce the overall amount of accidents but I don't think the public will accept it when the software glitches ...
Reminder that the most recent people-carrying airliners and rockets land by themselves. It has become boring to announce the countless successes of automated systems.

🚗 🤖 🚗 🤖 🚗 🤖 🚗 🤖

And here's one for the fishes:

 
Last edited:

neil_w

OpenRocketeer
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jul 14, 2015
Messages
14,274
Reaction score
7,676
Location
Northern NJ
I don't think the public will accept it when the software glitches because someone chose the wrong class for their method and kills a crowd of people.
This is likely true, due to human perception issues. Due to inattention, incompetence, inebriation or whatever, human drivers kill other drivers and/or pedestrians all the time. And we mostly just shrug it off, and no one ever says "well that means humans should not be allowed to drive". By comparison, each death caused by autonomous driving systems will be placed under a very powerful microscope, and could definitely cause a backlash, even if the autonomous systems are safer, overall.

I suspect it'll take a many years-long transition period before we become comfortable with this. I don't think anything can stop it from happening, though, in the long run, as long as the technical issues are solved (which I think they will be, eventually).
 

Cape Byron

The BAR formerly known as Skippy-2
TRF Supporter
Joined
Aug 3, 2019
Messages
5,082
Reaction score
9,409
Location
Northern Rivers, Australia
I'd really like to know how self-driving cars work:

- On narrow (1 car width) roads?
- On roads without centre lines?
- Gravel roads?
- Without GPS reception?
- Hazards such as landslips and causeways with varying depth water?
- On roadworks with Stop/Go flagmen?
- Avoiding kangaroos and wallabies, notorious for erratic behaviour?

Unless the answer is "Brilliantly", then the chance of self-driving cars becoming the norm here in Australia outside major cities is zero. I encounter all of these things above on a drive to buy groceries.

Yes, these technologies have their place but they are not a substitute for experienced manual control of a vehicle.
 

OverTheTop

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
7,535
Reaction score
5,664
Location
Melbourne Australia

Funkworks

Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
Joined
Jul 28, 2018
Messages
3,814
Reaction score
3,959
Yes, these technologies have their place but they are not a substitute for experienced manual control of a vehicle.
That’s exactly what they’re working on, to make them safer than human drivers. I think they see 10x as a real possibility. I see no issues on your list (Better with GPS though). The cars see colors and shapes, each one learns not only from its own experience but also from the experience of other similar cars (Tesla at least). I’m pretty sure the most difficult part is handling complicated, fast city traffic.

This is probably the best channel to get an idea of current tech. Countless hours of video.

 
Last edited:

Cape Byron

The BAR formerly known as Skippy-2
TRF Supporter
Joined
Aug 3, 2019
Messages
5,082
Reaction score
9,409
Location
Northern Rivers, Australia
That’s exactly what they’re working on, to make them safer than human drivers. I think they see 10x as a real possibility. I see no issues on your list (Better with GPS though). The cars see colors and shapes, each one learns not only from its own experience but also from the experience of other similar cars (Tesla at least). I’m pretty sure the most difficult part is handling complicated, fast city traffic.

This is probably the best channel to get an idea of current tech.



I’ll watch when I get a break.

I’ll also bet my left… dangly thing… that any self driving system that can deal with macropods is a looong way away. Ten years or more.

Volvo spent nearly ten years trying to develop a kangaroo avoidance system in the early 2000s. They gave up. The sheer unpredictability beat them.

Kangaroos and wallabies are completely unpredictable. They will run into the side of your car when you’re driving past at 5 mph.

Crazy, beautiful and nearly perfect. * I’ve lived with them my whole life and in 45 years of driving I’ve still hit three.

Moose and caribou avoidance is a breeze by comparison.

*Yes, I’m biased. Completely biased.
 

KC3KNM

Probably Wrong
TRF Supporter
Joined
May 6, 2018
Messages
732
Reaction score
831
Location
South Burlington, VT
I’ll watch when I get a break.

I’ll also bet my left… dangly thing… that any self driving system that can deal with macropods is a looong way away. Ten years or more.

Volvo spent nearly ten years trying to develop a kangaroo avoidance system in the early 2000s. They gave up. The sheer unpredictability beat them.

Kangaroos and wallabies are completely unpredictable. They will run into the side of your car when you’re driving past at 5 mph.

Crazy, beautiful and nearly perfect. * I’ve lived with them my whole life and in 45 years of driving I’ve still hit three.

Moose and caribou avoidance is a breeze by comparison.

*Yes, I’m biased. Completely biased.
Sounds like the deer in PA. I had one bust out my headlight when I was stopped. Saw the group of them in the road ahead of me, came to a stop, one walks up to my car and headbutts the light... completely destroyed the lens and dented my hood. Rudest thing I've ever experienced.
 
Top