Russia pulling out of ISS after 2024

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Russia says it is going to pull out of the ISS program after 2024. They say the will meet their partnership commitments through 2024 and then will focus on building their own station. The US and other partners want to keep the station running through 2030.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-science-241e789005f6375eeac3189acbdbc140
The article doesn’t say anything about what is to become of the Russian modules if Russia leaves. Will they keep operating? Be shut down? Can the station function without them? How will it work?

Personally, I think it’s very unlikely Russia will successfully build, launch, and operate its own independent station. I don’t think they have the economy for it anymore.

 

[boatgeek]

Pulling some quotes and shade from the other thread...

“I think that by [2024] we will start forming a Russian orbiting station.”

LOL, good luck with that.

I don't see why they couldn't. After all, the components can go up on the Angara A5 or the Yenisei or the Energia rockets. No problem!

As an aside, I love that the Wikipedia page for the Yenisei has a "Needs update" on the milestone for "end of technical design"
View attachment 529573

The question is... What components?

Vaporware components on vaporware rockets! A match made in Heaven.

 

[Antares JS]

NASA has supposedly been looking into contingencies in case this happened. I suspect there will be a buyout or possibly even a seizure of the Russian station components. The Russian segment cannot be disconnected from the rest of the station easily, and is used to perform stationkeeping.

I strongly suspect you are right that Russia does not have the economy necessary to put up another station of their own, which was why my original response to the idea of them doing so was "LOL."

 

[cerving]

All of the Russian government's discretionary budget is being spent to fight Ukraine... my guess is that they'll try to get NASA to buy the Russian modules, or maybe lease them somehow. Probably not gonna happen, though... it's not in NASA's budget of course, and it would look really bad if Russia just pulled their modules off to spite the US and the EU. Of course, Putin doesn't really doesn't care what other people think about him or his polices...

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I suspect there will be a buyout or possibly even a seizure of the Russian station components.

Space Force will make quick work of those peski Ruskis!

 

[jderimig]

2024 is a long way away in political time.

 

[Tyeeking]

2024 is a long way away in political time.

Politically it’s an eternity.

 

[cls]

Without Progress to boost the orbit, ISS will reenter sooner than desired...

Recently Cygnus demonstrated it could boost ISS orbit. But there will be no more Cygnus on Antares because the Russians destroyed the RD181 factory in Ukraine.

The motor situation is complicated, though

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NK-33

 

[Antares JS]

Without Progress to boost the orbit, ISS will reenter sooner than desired...

Recently Cygnus demonstrated it could boost ISS orbit. But there will be no more Cygnus on Antares because the Russians destroyed the RD181 factory in Ukraine.

The motor situation is complicated, though

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NK-33

The Antares hasn't used the NK-33 since Orb-3 in 2014. The RD-181 is an engine produced in Russia by Energomash. What was damaged in Ukraine was the Yuzhmash plant where the stage 1 cores are built.

 

[cls]

(The NK-33 page has some info on RD181)

So, with no stage 1 cores, what are the prospects for Antares?

Cygnus is supposed to be able to launch on Atlas V, but those are all spoken for.

 

[boatgeek]

Without Progress to boost the orbit, ISS will reenter sooner than desired...

Recently Cygnus demonstrated it could boost ISS orbit. But there will be no more Cygnus on Antares because the Russians destroyed the RD181 factory in Ukraine.

The motor situation is complicated, though

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NK-33

The Antares hasn't used the NK-33 since Orb-3 in 2014. The RD-181 is an engine produced in Russia by Energomash. What was damaged in Ukraine was the Yuzhmash plant where the stage 1 cores are built.

I think I've seen that Crew Dragon could boost the ISS with the Super Dracos, though I don't think it's been proven in-orbit. It's probably something that Starliner could do as well, though again unproven.

 

[aerostadt]

The Russians are very unpredictable in what they say and do. As I recall a few years ago it was posted on TRF that the Russians and the Chinese were going to team up in space. This was before the Ukraine war broke out. Perhaps, they both knew something back then or just realized that it was time for the world's two biggest autocracies to start working together. In any case with both sides supporting each other now due to the Ukrainian war, it would be natural for them to consider working together in space. Whether that option will really work on a practical basis remains to be seen. They have collaborated before. It is my understanding that the Chinese space capsule is a scaled up Russian Soyuz capsule.

 

[Antares JS]

So, with no stage 1 cores, what are the prospects for Antares?

I'm under an NDA and can't comment at this time.

 

[Peartree]

I'm under an NDA and can't comment at this time.

Thank you for that. That suggests that, not surprisingly, someone is thinking about this and might already have a plan. We'll wait for some kind of public announcement... eventually.

 

[aerostadt]

So, NASA says that it has not gotten any formal notification from Russia with regard to withdrawing from the ISS. If they did so, what are the Russian options? Can they unplug their modules and separate from the ISS? Can they say we will separate our modules from the ISS, unless you buy them from us? That almost sounds like blackmail.

 

[Antares JS]

So, NASA says that it has not gotten any formal notification from Russia with regard to withdrawing from the ISS. If they did so, what are the Russian options? Can they unplug their modules and separate from the ISS? Can they say we will separate our modules from the ISS, unless you buy them from us? That almost sounds like blackmail.

I'm not going to call it impossible, but the EVA work required to separate the western and Russian ISS segments would not be trivial and would very likely not be worth the risk. They would have to send up replacements for discarded hardware used for the fastening, open access doors that were not meant to be opened again after being shut, and disconnect cables that were meant to be permanently installed. Disconnecting ISS modules is not a matter of pushing a button to undock, there is a lot of exterior hardware that would have to be unfastened. A buyout or abandonment in place of the Russian segment is far more likely than any attempt to separate it.

 

[boatgeek]

I'm not going to call it impossible, but the EVA work required to separate the western and Russian ISS segments would not be trivial and would very likely not be worth the risk. They would have to send up replacements for discarded hardware used for the fastening, open access doors that were not meant to be opened again after being shut, and disconnect cables that were meant to be permanently installed. Disconnecting ISS modules is not a matter of pushing a button to undock, there is a lot of exterior hardware that would have to be unfastened. A buyout or abandonment in place of the Russian segment is far more likely than any attempt to separate it.

NASA should offer $12.99 for the Russian modules and dare Russia to come up with a competing offer. Sure it's hardball, but no different than the hardball Russia played for Soyuz seats during the STS-Crew Dragon gap.

 

[afadeev]

I can't constructively comment on the viability of running ISS post Russian segments' separation.
However, I do wonder about the upside of extending ISS lifespan beyond 2024. through 2030. With, or without the Russians.

The initial goals for building ISS were:

1. Learn how to build complex habitats in orbit.
2. Do a little bit of science.
3. Do a lot of keeping post-Cold-War Russian rocket scientists away from seeking employment opportunities in North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, or China.

#1 has succeeded. #2 has all but been exhausted. #3 is irrelevant now.

Other than subsidizing SpaceX and Boeing rocketry programs with flights to somewhere, why not scrap ISS and move the budget, the brainpower, and the priority onto bigger/better things?!

As far as I can tell, ISS has met its goals and outlived its purpose.
Time to apply what we've learned from ISS experience to building habitats on Lunar or Martian surfaces!


a

 

[Scott_650]

Russia says it is going to pull out of the ISS program after 2024.

A frustrated ISS couldn’t be reached for comment…

Can’t believe this thread went this long without someone saying it…

 

[Funkworks]

Personally, I think it’s very unlikely Russia will successfully build, launch, and operate its own independent station. I don’t think they have the economy for it anymore.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the possibility of Russia collaborating with another country.

 

[Mushtang]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the possibility of Russia collaborating with another country.

My thoughts are... the possibility is 100%

 

[Antares JS]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the possibility of Russia collaborating with another country.

Much hay has been made of Russia collaborating with China instead, but the Chinese space station is in an orbit that is unreachable from Russia, so any collaboration with them would see Russians taking off from China aboard a Chinese spacecraft, which would not be a great look for them if they want to derive prestige from their space program.

As for Lunar programs, that's all still up in the air at this point, but I sincerely doubt Russia would have much to contribute there.

 

[afadeev]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the possibility of Russia collaborating with another country.

Russia had already signed an agreement to cooperate with China on Lunar missions.
However, China has built its own space station without active Russian collaboration, so the best Russian can hope for is buying access to it. For what purpose, I have no idea.

https://spacenews.com/russia-looks-...ce-but-faces-isolation-over-ukraine-invasion/
Space stations are prestige, glamor, "look what I can do" projects.
Or they used to be. Now everyone who has a manned space program has BTDT.
https://www.spacefoundation.org/space_brief/space-stations/
That leaves North Korea, Iran, and possibly India as potential Russian space "collaborators".

 

[emmah]

@afadeev's assessment of the goals for ISS is spot on.

It's pretty wild we've collectively kept a space station going for 20+ years.

The thing that is frustrating about Roscosmos/Russia's announcement is the end of 30 year's cooperation in space. And that frankly sucks.

Space is hard and always trying to kill you.

It's good to have friends when you're in space, and Putin's imperialism and crimes in Ukraine have done so much damage to that.

Remember, the bosses are jerks and the rank and file can be our allies.

 

[emmah]

If Roscosmos goes through with their ragequit, and NASA, ESA, JAXA, CSA and the other remaining partners decide to deorbit ISS earlier, I do think it'd be a good idea for NASA and collaborators have a publicly funded station plan because if having a landlord on Earth is bad, I'd hate to have one in space*.

*The OPA probably started as a tenant's union.

 

[boatgeek]

Well, that didn't take long. The Russians are going to stick with ISS until 2028 while they build their own station, ROSS. A few quotes from the article below for your enjoyment, all emphasis mine.

Russian space officials have told their U.S. counterparts that Moscow expects to remain a part of the International Space Station at least until their own outpost in orbit is built in 2028, a senior NASA official told Reuters on Wednesday.

"We, of course, need to continue operating the ISS until we create a more or less tangible backlog for ROSS," Solovyov said. "We must take into account that if we stop manned flights for several years, then it will be very difficult to restore what has been achieved."

https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...th-space-station-until-least-2028-2022-07-27/

 

[Peartree]

Well, that didn't take long. The Russians are going to stick with ISS until 2028 while they build their own station, ROSS. A few quotes from the article below for your enjoyment, all emphasis mine.



https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...th-space-station-until-least-2028-2022-07-27/

It seems they learned something from our transition from the SaturnV to Shuttle, and then to Dragon. Stopping is not a good plan.

 

[Antares JS]

I will grant that it's smart to avoid a capability gap, but no way do they have a new station up by 2028 without major sacrifices in other areas.

 

[techrat]

Everyone keeps asking if the Russians are going to re-claim their modules. The thing is, their modules are already past their intended lifespan. They are leaky and problematic as it is. The entire ISS ether needs to be de-orbited, or refurbished entirely. A solution would be for a private entity, one that intends to do tourism in space, to start building new modules, and slowly start replacing the older, used-up modules. Consider that Musk was willing to buy *twitter* for $44 Billion. For that same money, you could buy the ISS outright and turn it into a space hotel.

This run down hotel needs about another $50 Billion in maintenance though. You need to replace modules and you need to boost it every so often. *If* SLS or Starship could ever get off the pad, we have enough heavy lift capability to do both of these things. There's also Neutron coming, but that could not lift a rigid module, but it could lift those inflatable modules they keep talking about.

I think it would be interesting to have a Russian Space Station, a Chinese one and an American one -- because apparently, as we have seen before, tribal competition appears to be a good thing. For example, Congress right now, is very hesitant to spend more than a few dimes to get us back to the moon. But if there were ample evidence that the Chinese were a couple of years away from a manned landing there, politicians would be falling over themselves to make sure we got back there first.

 

[Antares JS]

A solution would be for a private entity, one that intends to do tourism in space, to start building new modules, and slowly start replacing the older, used-up modules.

Have you ever heard of Axiom Space?

https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-axiom-space-to-build-commercial-space-station-module/
Old article, but their modules are being built and they have already done one private astronaut mission to the ISS.