Although the aerospike does not have a conventional throat, it has three narrow arcs through which the hot gases pass. The area ratio does have meaning for an aerospike; Kn = (area of burning propellant) / (area of the arcs). I think these arcs would erode just as a nozzle throat does...though how much they erode is a question that needs an answer. Anyway, that erosion would cause area ratio and chamber pressure to decrease during the burn (unless a rather progressive grain shape is used) which would decrease thrust.
Perhaps thrust would not decrease as much as with a conventional nozzle, as nozzle expansion is no longer a factor (maybe?). As you said, it depends on how badly the aerospike is beat up by exhaust gases. The exit cone of a conventional phenolic nozzle isn't greatly eroded by the expanding gases, so maybe the performance of the cone would not be impaired significantly.
Best -- Terry