Official lockdown loopholes

[Marc_G]

I wonder if anyone is considering the possibility if we don't get people back to work soon there's not going to be any tax revenue. I keep hearing/reading 30% unemployment in the very near future. Severely reduced tax revenue means there might not be any money left to fight the next pandemic. We might be locking down now to save one life that is going to cost us many more in the near future. Pile that onto a 2 trillion dollar relief bill along with the trillions this country is already in debt. Curious as to when the financial spigot gets turned off...

Just a thought.

It's an important thought. If you search for it I'm sure you will find sites doing the calculations that weigh short and long term impacts of lower short term tax revenue versus more dead. I'm sure they also factor into this that a large proportion of the dead are older reducing social security long term burden. The concepts are horrifying to me.

 

[DAllen]

Here's another thought...If we don't get this economy moving again - really soon - its going to become more and more difficult to produce things like...oh I don't know...ventilators, surgical masks, more hospitals, vaccines, etc, etc.

 

[Gino Maserati]

Just got the official lockdown notice here in Michigan. So, staying at home is now required not merely suggested. Except... for activities essential for health and well-being.

Launching a few rockets, filming them for the kids in my 4H club, seems essential to our mental wellbeing. And there’s all these athletic fields no one is using right now...

 

[Marc_G]

Essential industries are still at work to produce goods and provide essential services. All the things you mentioned are still being manufactured with no plans to ramp down. Even home construction continues unabated. Of course nobody will be able to afford the homes soon...

 

[Gino Maserati]

We are almost om lock down IN Oklahoma City,Oklahoma drive thrus open,wal-mart hardly has anything but flippin Easter candy by the palletts. Sylvia Brown predicted this a few yrs ago before she passed away, But its all a mutated version of the rabies. Because if you eat something you were not ment to eat and it has rabies don't you think something is going to happen? Stay safe,wash your hands,fire one up & pray like you've never prayed before...God won't give us more than we can stand

 

[Reinhard]

We may have to just bump elbows and disagree on this one. Somewhere down the line we are going to have to make that choice. The question is when

I guess it will not be "that choice" but many choices, made on a case by case basis, guided by an evolving understanding of the situation. For example, here in Austria construction sites will reopen with additional distancing measures before the peak happens, while other businesses remain closed for the foreseeable future.

I actually heard that Governor Cuomo mentioned that the curve was indicating signs of slowing. Perhaps I misheard him.

Maybe that?
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242836692534509568

From personal experience, I'd advise against putting too much weight into day-to-day comparisons. The most annoying thing is to observe data on a daily basis that looks like your country might be a bit lucky, just to get a reality check later.

Reinhard

 

[DAllen]

Of course nobody will be able to afford the homes soon...

And that right there is the main issue. And who is funding these essential industries? That's right, you and me. If a bunch of us are out of work that's kind of a big issue.

 

[H_Rocket]

I guess it will not be "that choice" but many choices, made on a case by case basis, guided by an evolving understanding of the situation. For example, here in Austria construction sites will reopen with additional distancing measures before the peak happens, while other businesses remain closed for the foreseeable future.

Maybe that?
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1242836692534509568

Yeah, that's it. I heard it on the radio though.

From personal experience, I'd advise against putting too much weight into day-to-day comparisons. The most annoying thing is to observe data on a daily basis that looks like your country might be a bit lucky, just to get a reality check later.

It cuts both ways, the general public is looking at data without a full context and possibly drawing erroneous conclusions. What's worse, to me, is people are choosing to accept data from sources that align with their political beliefs and discard anything that does not line up. Today I read that on data scientist thinks that there may be a possibility that using Italy as a reference model for the US is a flawed perception - for the New York Metroplex, perhaps. Whatever the actual situation is, I am beginning to admit I have no idea how to make an informed decision from the mass of data being published.

 

[John Kemker]

Arguing on the Internet. /smh

 

[boatgeek]

...
From personal experience, I'd advise against putting too much weight into day-to-day comparisons. The most annoying thing is to observe data on a daily basis that looks like your country might be a bit lucky, just to get a reality check later.

We just had that happen in WA. The daily state numbers were looking really good for a couple of days and then we had a bad day that reverted to the previous curve. Time will tell which was the blip.

 

[boatgeek]

This is relevant to the discussion, talking about how much we are willing to spend to save an average person's life: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/ The value of lives saved shows up all across regualtory rule-making in the government, from airbag laws to pollution regulations.

I didn't remember this, but during the GWB administration, EPA tried to address the fact that people will spend more to save a child's life than a senior citizen's by discounting the value of a senior citizen's life. Needless to say, that didn't go over well with AARP and was abandoned under political pressure.

 

[o1d_dude]

Some of us have to work during a pandemic. If you do not need to leave the home, you should stay in your home. If you are sick, you should stay in your home.

I think it really comes down to are you a team player and willing to inconvenience yourself to protect others. No one is that important that they need to come to work to risk others lives.

This really has changed my thoughts and I will no longer come to work with a Cold or any other ailment.

I had the same revelation a few days ago...recalling how when I was still actively employed, I would "strongly suggest" sick staff to take go home and recuperate. That's why we had sick leave.

 

[o1d_dude]

Here's another thought...If we don't get this economy moving again - really soon - its going to become more and more difficult to produce things like...oh I don't know...ventilators, surgical masks, more hospitals, vaccines, etc, etc.

From what I've heard, a number of rocketry cottage industrialists have stepped up and are producing various necessary items.

Ben at Bama Chutes is currently making surgical masks and some of the 3D printing outfits are producing medical items now as well.

 

[RocketT.Coyote]

On paid leave until April when I return to work. My CAP meetings are cancelled until mid-May. We're still encouraged to interact though. TARC may be postponed, but my crew at least got a rough prototype into the sky before the order came down to cease activities.

Those caught violating the executive order to self isolate may be subject to a $500 fine and/or 90 days imprisonment.

 

[jimzcatz]

No loophole here. Business as usual for me.

 

[Zeus-cat]

A year or two from now we will know what the best course of action was to take based on the full data. Unfortunately we need to make the decisions today based on partial data. As I said previously, being in power at times like these is a tough thing; no matter what decision you make someone will disagree with you. I think Governor DeWine here in Ohio is doing a very good job.

 

[DAllen]

Nevermind

 

[boatgeek]

A year or two from now we will know what the best course of action was to take based on the full data. Unfortunately we need to make the decisions today based on partial data. As I said previously, being in power at times like these is a tough thing; no matter what decision you make someone will disagree with you. I think Governor DeWine here in Ohio is doing a very good job.

There was a good quote today from one of the people leading the WA response to the pandemic: "I don't want to say that I'm a pessimist, but I'm assuming the worst case. And I think we have to do that until we get firm numbers that show us that we're not [in a worst-case scenario]."

 

[afadeev]

There's no reason to think the chart which shows exponential growth is going to suddenly cap off anytime soon.

I actually heard that Governor Cuomo mentioned that the curve was indicating signs of slowing. Perhaps I misheard him.

You had misread the chart, which shows total number of daily new deaths in the US.
It won't be slowing any time soon, and it certainly has been increasing in NY. It is also a lagging indicator of how we are managing covid-19 emergency.

What Cuomo said the other day is that social distancing maybe working, and slowing the rate of covid-19 hospitalizations from doubling every 3.4 days to now doubling every 4.7 days.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases

What the president says is truly irrelevant.
the Governors have taken this on and will do as they determine is best for the individual states.

And that is the other tragedy in all this - total lack of leadership from the top.
So yes, governors, are leading the way, but are also competing with each other for PPE and ventilator resources.
Not optimal.

 

[Marc_G]

You had misread the chart, which shows total number of daily new deaths in the US.
It won't be slowing any time soon, and it certainly has been increasing in NY. It is also a lagging indicator of how we are managing covid-19 emergency.

What Cuomo said the other day is that social distancing maybe working, and slowing the rate of covid-19 hospitalizations from doubling every 3.4 days to now doubling every 4.7 days.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/new-york-andrew-cuomo-coronavirus-cases



And that is the other tragedy in all this - total lack of leadership from the top.
So yes, governors, are leading the way, but are also competing with each other for PPE and ventilator resources.
Not optimal.

There are a couple charts there, including total deaths so far and deaths in each day. Neither will be slowing soon, as you said. Uggh. I look at the deaths-per-day a couple times each day to see how things are trending. What I've found is that during each day, deaths are added at an irregular pace. So, if 3 hours go by and only a few new deaths are reported, that doesn't mean there won't be 50 or 75 in the next hour or two. It's an aggregate of many reporting systems.

Let's hope this thing turns around soon.