New threads and interesting conversations directly in your inbox. Sign up now and get a daily summary of the latest forum activities!
Discussion in 'The Watering Hole' started by BBowmaster, Mar 24, 2020 at 1:07 AM.
What's the source? Of the cell phone data, I mean.
This seems to be the source of that report...
To paraphrase: “Papers? I don’t need no stinking papers!”
Note: The Epoch Times is a part of Falun Gong. To say that they don't have a good relationship with the Chinese Communist Party, would be quite an understatement. For example, they are calling the virus the CCP virus instead of its official name.
If 2.1 million Chinese died, we would not only see an obscure signal in cell phone usage data, we would have already seen it in countless different ways. Satellite images, people being missed by international family members, friends and business partners, internet accounts with services outside of China going silent, local reports leaking through and so on and on.
Yes. That was the article. Looks like the numbers I quoted earlier were off. I claim geezerly memory in my defense.
I also understand that The Epoch Times is related to the Falun Gong sect/discipline and has an adversarial relationship with the Central Party.
I can't imagine why anyone...
Would have an adversarial relationship...
With the communist party...
Also, consider the signal to noise ratio. If one in every thousand phones in China went silent over the course of a few months, the signal would be super weak and how could you tell it's not just some periodic trend or effect of their economy slowing due to the virus.
I personally know enough Chinese to know that in the main cities life is getting back to normal. Can't speak to Wuhan; don't know folks there.
I don't think anyone deriding Lt. Governor Patrick has actually listened to or read his entire statement. My take is that he is a 68 year old man who said that if he had to choose between his heath and the well being of his grandchildren, he would choose his grandchildren. He further went to say he suspected many of his social peers might feel the same.
That was a personal opinion on his point, not a statement of policy. Believe it or not, politicians are allowed a personal point of view that may contradict what they have to support on a public level.
If he does get sick, will he also decline medical care to save a hospital bed for a 40-year-old?
Cue the strawman...
Funny, I'm not the Lt. Governor of Texas, nor am I seventy years old or have grandchildren. He simply said that nobody asked his personal opinion as a seventy year old grandparent and, given a hypothetical situation, how he felt he would respond. If you want to know, write and ask him.
My only comment was he laid out a specific use case that touched home to him and folks felt it necessary to spout garbage that implied he was in favor of some sort of genocide. There was nothing in his statement about 40 year olds, people in California or New York, or the price of rice in China. Just because you don't agree with his personal stance, that does not make it wrong.
I actually agree with him that there are a lot of elderly people who don't feel like they have to much time left in this world and are ready to depart. My grandpa was in that same boat for many years, including 2 years on hospice.
My real complaints are on two fronts. First of all, if they lift quarantine, they're gambling with the lives of everyone (and especially seniors) in the state, and not just those who are ready to die. Second, I've seen an awful lot of politicians who are staunchly in favor of a policy until it starts to negatively affect them personally. Pro-life and family values politicians who send their mistresses to get abortions, hard-core libertarians who take bailout money, anti-corruption reformers on the take, etc. If he's all for getting some of the elderly out of the way and not willing to give up testing and a hospital bed for himself, then he's kind of a hypocrite.
What the Lt. Governor of Texas and others are describing is also a false choice. The pro for continuing with isolation is we will save lives, and the con is we are going to have serious economic problems. The con for ending isolation is it will definitely cost lives, maybe a million or more, but it’s not guaranteed that there is a pro in the form of a better economic outcome. That’s a gamble. I don’t think the hoped-for economic benefit will happen. If people start back to work, and there is a sudden surge of infections, health care system collapses, and the number of deaths skyrockets, people will be terrified. They might never be willing to go back to work.
I also think it is false framing to say that the decision to save lives is only about saving old people. They are more vulnerable, but there are also other vulnerable groups too. And EVERYONE is vulnerable if the hospital system completely collapses. Hospitals are always full up to near capacity in normal times. Those sick or injured people aren’t going away just because there is a huge surge of COVID-19 patients taking up every bed, every ventilator, and every doctor. If we get too many patients at once, you are going to have people dying of heart attacks and car accidents who would ordinarily survive with medical care. They wont’t die from coronavirus, but they will die due to the coronavirus outbreak.
I just wanted to show this paragraph again, because it is incredibly important.
That may well be (in your opinion). Until you post a copy of your C.V. Showing your qualifications in epidemiology (a virology background would bolster your claims - graduate work in economics would not hurt), all you have is the same level of uneducated opinion I do.
And I still fail to understand why this one man is such a villain for stating that he would be willing to sacrifice his health and well being for someone that he loves. Show me where, in that conversation, he explicitly states that he does not care about the impact on other potentially vulnerable populations.
Can't be done...
Much easier to make strawman arguments, cast aspersions,
Or simply make things up...
Back to my original topic. I went out and launched a few rockets yesterday. By the third launch, local police showed up. Officer stopped at social distance of about 8 foot, asked what I was doing.
I explained I was making a video for my 4H rocket club to help inspire them during the lockdown.
“Cool. Can I press the button?”
Launched 4 more with the officer’s help before he got another call. Officer gave me his email to add him to our club mailing list as he has a 10yo son into tech.
No contact between us. He wore gloves to handle the launcher. No contact with anyone else on my part, no touching of anything at the field save my own gear.
Al, I don’t need to be an expert in a field in order to listen to an expert in a field explain something and form an informed opinion about what they are saying. I don’t need to be an epidemiologist to understand what an epidemiologist is saying.
And as far as I’ve seen, ALL of the epidemiologists and public health experts are saying if we don’t practice physical distancing, we are going to have a million or two dead Americans, because we are going to overwhelm our medical resources with everyone getting sick at once, and a lot of people who would survive COVID-19 with care are going to die due to lack of care. But if we do follow the recommendations, we can cut that down significantly. The same number of people may eventually get sick, but if we can all “take turns” instead of rushing the system all at once, then maybe everyone will be able to get the care they need when it’s their turn.
That’s what I keep seeing experts say, and it makes sense to me, and I think I understand it, even though I’m not an expert myself. You let me know if you think there are dissenting epidemiologists we should be listening to, or if you think I’ve misunderstood what the experts have said.
As for this Lt. Governor, I don’t think he’s evil, or at least I don’t KWOW he is. I am willing to accept he may just be dangerously misinformed and possibly ignorant. He might not understand the issue as I just explained it. Not everyone is capable of listening to experts and understanding what they are saying. I think I can, but maybe he can’t or won’t. Whatever the reason, he is framing a false choice.
Actually you dodge the question and seem to not want to accept that he is willing to trade his future for his grandchildren and nobody else. I was trying to use hyperbole to demonstrate that folks are willing to presume their interpretation of listening to experts is the only correct opinion. I don't debate that the vast majority of healthcare professionals are stating that the semi quarantine in effect is the best path. I'd bet that he probably understands the same thing. The question that digs at me and probably people in his position is "what do we do when we run out of money to give?" Do we allow hyperinflation to take over? Do we simply let people starve and be put out on the street? Do we have the government take over everything and dole it out?
Yes, right now the best course of action is probably what we are doing now. I wonder how long we can do it for?
I’m not dodging the question. I’m saying he’s framing a false choice.
The topic of the interview was the president’s suggestion that the federal government should lift its restrictions (suggestions really) about distancing and gathering size at the end of the 15-day period and we all “get back to work” by Easter. That’s what they were talking about.
So the choice is not whether he personally is willing to take a risk for the sake of his own grandchildren. I’m sure most grandparents would feel the same way, given a choice framed that way. But that’s not what this is about.
The real choice is should we keep these restrictions in place, save lives, but damage the economy? Or should we lift the restrictions, cost maybe a million lives of people (of all ages) who don’t need to die, and hopefully not damage the economy quite so much. That’s the proper frame, and that’s a legitimate choice we have to make. But by framing it as being about grandparents sacrificing for their grandchildren, he was either being dishonest about the real choice or he doesn’t really understand it himself.
That sounds like a nice day. I’m glad to hear it went well.
Did you wash up thoroughly after being out? And clean the launch controller? His gloves probably protected him from anything on your controller, but any boogers already on his gloves are now on your controller and on your hands if you touched it after he did.
My wife and I went out for a walk today. We can leave our house and walk to a nearby walking/biking path and a couple of parks. We met a mother and daughter we know on the path and stopped for a conversation. The daughter is an ER nurse at a nearby hospital. She says they are getting a lot more respiratory cases now. She was talking about how things are not bad yet, but they expect it to get much worse over the coming weeks, and they have a creepy kind of anticipation as things start to build. She said none of them have ever had this feeling before.
I wanted to hear what she had to say and let her talk about what’s happening, but the whole time, I was getting more and more nervous about standing there with her. We were in open air, easily more than 6’ apart, but I kept thinking about how I was talking to someone who for sure has been in contact with patients. It was cloudy out, looking like rain, and as soon as my wife felt one sprinkle, we said we didn’t want to get caught in the rain and scrammed out of there.
Great discussion / debate guys. While I have my own views I appreciate hearing a diverse set of perspectives.
A few thoughts from my end:
I don't think it matters much, what Trump says now about getting back to work by Easter. I'm critical of him for sure, but I think most people know he's blowing smoke. Every indication is that by Easter we're going to be in a world of hurt. Here's today's chart from worldometers.info, updated through yesterday.
There's no reason to think the chart which shows exponential growth is going to suddenly cap off anytime soon. If we observed ideal social distancing starting this past Monday, with everybody locked in their homes, the chart would bend over about a month from now. That's time enough for the people who were asymptomatically infected on Monday to present symptoms and add to the deaths, plus two cycles of transmission to others in the home, before it burns out. That's a "best case scenario." When the deaths are in the thousands per day nobody is going to be anxious to get back out in contact with others and packing churches on Easter.
Also there's the fact that business has by and large already written down May, from the perspective that it's broadly assumed that the lockdowns will still be in place for at least two months. Shows have been cancelled, plans have been scrapped, orders have been cancelled, and any coordinated business events are off the table until at least June. Mostly, End of June.
And while the situation may be framed in U.S. terms as "the administration versus the opposition" if you want, there's also the global stage. Even if we get this under control in a month, here, a lot of countries will be in full meltdown all through the summer. It's easy to think of this as a US problem, but much of business is global these days. Supply, demand, customers, vendors, it's all a global soup.
I am wishing all of you well. This place is one of my communities and I enjoy interacting with all of you. Stay safe, friends.
He actually put on a fresh set of gloves to push the button. I assume they weren’t unused though, so yes I washed everything up when I packed up before putting it in my car. Sanitizer on my hands after that before driving. Wipe down of controls in the car when home.
I’m reasonably sure that protected me. I’m virtually certain I didn’t distribute the virus (or anything else) beyond me. Certainly more responsible than the runners I see spitting to the side as they run. Or the dog walkers that drop cigarette butts on the road.
We may have to just bump elbows and disagree on this one. Somewhere down the line we are going to have to make that choice. The question is when.
I do have to say that I relish being able to discuss this in a friendly matter. I think if more people talked openly like you and I have been able to, more would be accomplished.
What the president says is truly irrelevant. the Governors have taken this on and will do as they determine is best for the individual states.
I actually heard that Governor Cuomo mentioned that the curve was indicating signs of slowing. Perhaps I misheard him.
You as well Marc
You and I get a lot of practice disagreeing agreeably!
I still think your wife dresses you funny.
We feel the same way coming home.
I can shower at work and come home in street clothes, but I still worry about things I come in contact with and bringing them home to my family. My son likes to come out to the hangar or our office at the hospital to see the helicopter and ambulances, but we don't dare let him at the moment. Several of the RNs I work with are working on BSN or NP programs and have had clinicals in community clinics cancelled on them for fear of them spreading this around.
Tru Dat. I will suggest that since more states are R than D at the moment, Governor wise, I anticipate many (NOT ALL) will acquiesce to any narrative/plan that is set out before them by the President. It's an election year and they by and large will take their cue from him.
Although I didn't hear this (didn't listen to briefing today), it wouldn't surprise me if true. NY/NYC is the first of the major city epicenters. Most other cities are a week or two behind, just now ramping up with symptomatic patients who will eventually start filling up the hospitals, then the morgues unfortunately. So, my comment about this going on for a while, I was talking about USA as a whole. Some places will pass their peak early, others later of course. On the whole, a pretty grim tableau.
I wonder if anyone is considering the possibility if we don't get people back to work soon there's not going to be any tax revenue. I keep hearing/reading 30% unemployment in the very near future. Severely reduced tax revenue means there might not be any money left to fight the next pandemic. We might be locking down now to save one life that is going to cost us many more in the near future. Pile that onto a 2 trillion dollar relief bill along with the trillions this country is already in debt. Curious as to when the financial spigot gets turned off...
Just a thought.
Some of us have to work during a pandemic. If you do not need to leave the home, you should stay in your home. If you are sick, you should stay in your home.
I think it really comes down to are you a team player and willing to inconvenience yourself to protect others. No one is that important that they need to come to work to risk others lives.
This really has changed my thoughts and I will no longer come to work with a Cold or any other ailment.
Separate names with a comma.