North Korea

[Bat-mite]

I remember that during the Cold War, the one thing that helped me sleep at night was the fact that the Soviets had spouses, children and grandparents, too. I always reminded myself that no one really wants nuclear war, and the Soviets would be working as hard as we were to avoid it.

But I don't know if that's true when you have a Hitleresque nutjob running your country. Maybe in Kim's delusions, he actually believes that he could win a nuclear war and thrice in its aftermath. Hopefully he's not actually bonafide schizo.

 

[TangoJuliet]

I think he's obviously delusional if he thinks he could actually win a war with the US. As depleted as our military has become over the policies and budget of the last administration, it is still a hundred times more massive and powerful than anything NK could put together. It's never as simple as "taking out" a head of state to make it all better, even though I think he needs to be taken out.

 

[Winston]

I remember that during the Cold War, the one thing that helped me sleep at night was the fact that the Soviets had spouses, children and grandparents, too. I always reminded myself that no one really wants nuclear war, and the Soviets would be working as hard as we were to avoid it.

But I don't know if that's true when you have a Hitleresque nutjob running your country. Maybe in Kim's delusions, he actually believes that he could win a nuclear war and thrice in its aftermath. Hopefully he's not actually bonafide schizo.

[video=youtube;wHylQRVN2Qs]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs[/video]

 

[Winston]

I think he's obviously delusional if he thinks he could actually win a war with the US. As depleted as our military has become over the policies and budget of the last administration, it is still a hundred times more massive and powerful than anything NK could put together. It's never as simple as "taking out" a head of state to make it all better, even though I think he needs to be taken out.

That claim is simply propaganda for local consumption. All he needs to accomplish is deter regime change.

 

[Winston]

Keep in mind that China is willing to tolerate a tremendous amount of crap from North Korea to keep a buffer between their border and South Korea (and U.S. forces). And the "fat crazy kid" is playing all the parties involved to get stuff that he would never have a chance of getting any other way.

Yep, the Chinese are in an interesting position as are we.

 

[Winston]

Kim Jong Il's main spread. Note "underground facility" and "underground rail station.":

40 “bunker buster” bombs deployed to S.Korea last week
Missiles accurate enough to hit Kim Jong Un’s office windows in Pyongyang, expert says
December 12th, 2016

https://www.nknews.org/2016/12/40-bunker-buster-bombs-deployed-to-s-korea-last-week-s-korean-media/

A day after Pyongyang released pictures of its special forces raiding a replica of South Korea’s presidential office, Seoul has reportedly deployed around 40 bunker busters to the peninsula.

Accurate enough to penetrate Kim Jong Un’s office windows, an expert said, more units of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles – European-made so-called “bunker busters” – are to arrive next year, various South Korean media reported on Monday.

“With ranges of 500 kilometers and accuracy good enough to penetrate Kim Jong Un’s office windows, this is certainly the best South Korean-owned system to strike North Korean underground facilities,” Kim Min-seok, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum told NK News.

“The only downside of the system is its lesser penetrative force compared to nuclear armaments.”

Having arrived from Germany, around 40 of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles were delivered to Busan Port last Monday and were later transported to the K-2 Taegu Air Force Base, reports said.

The systems are currently going through an acceptance inspection to make sure that they are functioning as intended and will be soon loaded into F-15K strike fighter jets.

“We have been operating F-15Ks loaded with (Taurus) training shells, so once the inspection is over, the units should be integrated into the ROK Air Force soon,” an Air Force source told South Korean media, who remained anonymous in all of the articles.

The 40 missiles are part of 170 Taurus missiles that the ROK military plans to deploy by next year, the reports added.

Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea - PDF

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/D...Democratic_Peoples_Republic_of_Korea_2015.PDF

About NK nukes:

https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2016/north-koreas-fifth-nuclear-test

...the nuclear test would imply that North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme has been continuously expanding for a decade and that it may possess a nuclear arsenal estimated of 10-12 nuclear weapons. Additionally, it may by now have achieved a manufacturing capacity of possibly up to four to six nuclear weapons per year.

The Nuclear Weapons Institute of North Korea announced that the successful nuclear test confirmed the ‘specific features of the nuclear warhead that has been standardized to be able to be mounted on strategic ballistic rockets of the Hwasong artillery units of the Strategic Forces’. It added that ‘there was no radioactive materials leakage’ from the detonation, and that the ‘standardization of the nuclear warhead will enable the DPRK to produce at will and as many [warheads] as it wants [of] a variety of smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear warheads of higher strike power with a firm hold on the technology for producing and using various fissile materials’.

The Pukguksong-2: A Higher Degree of Mobility, Survivability and Responsiveness
13 February 2017

https://38north.org/2017/02/jschilling021317/

Video shows the new TEL operating independently from a paved surface with only a pair of rear jackstands for additional support, so five minutes to park, erect and launch is a reasonable estimate for a prepared and surveyed site with a preplanned fire mission. That is likely to be the preferred operating mode, but if things go badly enough for the North Koreans that they have to park at some random spot on a dirt road to launch it will likely take quite a bit longer.

An additional complication would be warhead mating. We suspect, but do not positively know, that North Korea stores missiles and warheads separately in peacetime for security purposes. When and where they would attach the warheads is an interesting question, and a constraint on their operations.

I don’t think it is plausible that this is simply a land-based test of the KN-11 SLBM. The North Korean navy has its own missile test facilities at Sinpo, including land and barge launchers to avoid risking the submarine. In the unlikely event that they felt the need to use an Army facility, I can’t see them building a unique new TEL for the job.

We have been expecting a solid-fuel land-based MRBM or IRBM since we first saw evidence of North Korean large solid motor development; they have the same clear reasons for making that change that drove their former partners Iran and Pakistan to develop the Sejjil and Shaheen, respectively. It wasn’t clear that they would use the same missile as the navy, but looks that way now.

Regarding hints that the missile may have improved guidance and/or evasion capability, there are features on the reentry vehicle that might be divert thrusters for post-boost maneuvering, but we can’t tell whether such a capability was demonstrated during this test. That’s a very tricky thing to get right, and I suspect the Pukguksong-2 is going to be operating in a purely ballistic mode for some years to come.

 

[jderimig]

I remember that during the Cold War, the one thing that helped me sleep at night was the fact that the Soviets had spouses, children and grandparents, too.

Yes, and all them related to the elites will be in safe bunkers in the countryside. The rest will be left to fate. Don't take too much comfort in this line of thinking. Russians have a long history of indifference to the plight of their population.

 

[Winston]

Frankly, I doubt it:

U.S. May Launch Strike if North Korea Reaches for Nuclear Trigger
Apr 13, 2017

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-may-launch-strike-if-north-korea-reaches-nuclear-n746366

The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend.

The intelligence officials told NBC News that the U.S. has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site.

 

[captbk]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/14/us-...s-to-seoul-as-north-korea-tensions-flare.html

There may not be much left of Seoul by Sunday if the little fat boy goes too far.

 

[Winston]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/14/us-...s-to-seoul-as-north-korea-tensions-flare.html

There may not be much left of Seoul by Sunday if the little fat boy goes too far.

Frankly, I suspect that this is all just a bunch of saber rattling unless there's been some pre-arranged insider moves to a coup where the NK military won't retaliate against SK if NK is attacked, but that kind of thing is very difficult to arrange in a closed totalitarian police state.

Anyway, we collectors of military badges and decorations will sure have a lot to choose from on eBay if and when NK falls:

 

[TangoJuliet]

Looks like they took their uniform cue from Muammar Gadaffi! Lol!

 

[rcktnut]

I always get a kick out of how happy those guys always look.

 

[Winston]

Satellite imagery with analysis. Amazing what civilian satellite imagery you can simply buy these days:

North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Primed and Ready
Apr 12, 2017

https://38north.org/2017/04/punggyeri041217/

 

[Winston]

Looks like they took their uniform cue from Muammar Gadaffi! Lol!

That's what you end up with when you don't use ribbons and ribbon devices. I wonder what they do when they run out of room on the front. Can't put them on the back as that would make sitting really uncomfortable.

 

[Zeus-cat]

I think he's obviously delusional if he thinks he could actually win a war with the US. As depleted as our military has become over the policies and budget of the last administration, it is still a hundred times more massive and powerful than anything NK could put together. It's never as simple as "taking out" a head of state to make it all better, even though I think he needs to be taken out.

Our "depleted" military spends more than any other country. Actually, we spend more than the next 7 countries combined for a total of 36% of the world's military expenditures. China is second in expenditures and spends about a third of what we do (and their stuff is made in China).

Militaries always claim to be short of funds. Honestly, you could probably double or triple military expenditures and we would still be short of funds for someone's program.

 

[markkoelsch]

That's what you end up with when you don't use ribbons and ribbon devices. I wonder what they do when they run out of room on the front. Can't put them on the back as that would make sitting really uncomfortable.

Attach them to their asses in honor of their imperious leader.

 

[Peter Olivola]

The US military has been trying to cut back, but it's the politicians, needing to keep their constituents employed, who make the decisions.

Our "depleted" military spends more than any other country. Actually, we spend more than the next 7 countries combined for a total of 36% of the world's military expenditures. China is second in expenditures and spends about a third of what we do (and their stuff is made in China).

Militaries always claim to be short of funds. Honestly, you could probably double or triple military expenditures and we would still be short of funds for someone's program.

 

[Winston]

This is interesting:

Kim Jong Un’s rockets are getting an important boost — from China
Apr 13, 2017

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...d1a0973e7b2_story.html?utm_term=.e4dad8831ddd

When North Korea launched its Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite into space in February last year, officials heralded the event as a birthday gift for dead leader Kim Jong Il. But the day also brought an unexpected prize for the country’s adversaries: priceless intelligence in the form of rocket parts that fell into the Yellow Sea.

Entire sections of booster rocket were snagged by South Korea’s navy and then scrutinized by international weapons experts for clues about the state of North Korea’s missile program. Along with motor parts and wiring, investigators discerned a pattern. Many key components were foreign-made, acquired from businesses based in China.

The trove “demonstrates the continuing critical importance of high-end, foreign-sourced components” in building the missiles North Korea uses to threaten its neighbors, a U.N. expert team concluded in a report released last month. When U.N. officials contacted the implicated Chinese firms to ask about the parts, the report said, they received only silence.

 

[markkoelsch]

No surprise there. Just like when the Chinese received valuable missile guidance assistance from Bill Clinton in exchange for campaign contributions.

 

[Winston]

No surprise there. Just like when the Chinese received valuable missile guidance assistance from Bill Clinton in exchange for campaign contributions.

Their official (public) position is that they don't like what fat boy is stirring up. Apparently not true.

 

[Winston]

IMO, NK is easily the winner of the dictatorship spectacle award. I don't recall the Soviets ever doing anything even remotely this impressive people-wise although they had far more aircraft to show off and while the Nazis had impressive spectacles with a lot of people standing in rows, I don't recall nearly this much stuff in motion.

The alignment precision and step sync of the marchers is very impressive and that goose stepping must really HURT. I've seen elsewhere from those who have escaped NK that they bind/girdle their abdomens because of the shock forces on internal organs.

I was waiting for someone with locked knees to collapse in the units standing at attention, but I guess there's a very great incentive not to. Temp was mid-70s with 43% humidity. Long speeches at the beginning.

At 55:35, we see a unit with black camo painted faces and NVGs each carrying what look like very large caliber grenade launchers and related gear storage. During their pass by the reviewing stand one of the military officers hides his mouth with his notebook as he talks in the ear of fat boy, I assume about the unit passing, hiding his mouth I suspect to prevent lip reading of classified talk. Anyone here understand Korean who can tell us what the narrator is saying about that group?

The hardware review begins at 1:10 with a very unimpressive prop aircraft formation flyover and, later, lots of missiles.

[video=youtube;9vn57jxF9Ow]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vn57jxF9Ow[/video]

North Korean military parade: What the cameras didn’t show you
Exclusive pictures show both excitement of soldiers and details of advanced weaponry
Aug 1, 2013

https://www.nknews.org/2013/08/north-korean-military-parade-what-the-cameras-didnt-show-you/

 

[markkoelsch]

It reminds me of the old adage about cars - if it doesn't go, chrome it. Pomp and such does not mean they are worth a damn as a fighting force. I am Not saying they cannot fight, but the spectacle is and always has been, in my opinion, cheap propaganda. Even back in the Soviet days, they kept looping the aircraft around to make the force look larger than it was.

The Fat Kid should be referred to as The Imperious Leader - not to dishonor original Battlestar Galactica.

We should send Dennis Rodman back to NK to defuse the situation. I bet Rodman is really CIA- seems about their speed. He could go and party the imperious leader to death.

 

[Winston]

Excellent and very interesting documentary with undercover video. There is hope for North Koreans. Important things are changing that undermine the regime:

Frontline - Secret State of North Korea (2014 video)

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/secret-state-of-north-korea/

 

[MClark]

His missile went boom.
I hate catos
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4415314/North-Korea-attempts-launch-missile-fails.html

 

[Winston]

Excellent parade hardware analysis with many photos:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...-parade-prescription-for-fear-dose-of-reality

From that analysis, info on the guys I was wondering about above. Those weren't grenade launchers as they appeared to be in the low res parade video without closeups I watched:

North Korea's special operations forces looked pretty spooky during their march. They were wearing some pretty cool camo, sporting night vision goggles, and toting Type 88s (local AK-74 derivative) with top-folding stocks and helical high-capacity magazines which store at least 100 rounds.

These soldiers have the primary mission of infiltrating behind South Korean lines via tunnels, submarines and An-2 biplanes to wreak absolute havoc on the South Korean populous during a time of open warfare between the two estranged countries.

Missiles of North Korea

https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/

KN-15 (Pukkuksong-2)

The KN-15 (Pukkuksong-2) is a cold-launched, medium-range ballistic missile, and appears to be a land-based variant of the KN-11, North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile.

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/pukkuksong-2/

 

[Winston]

His missile went boom.
I hate catos
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4415314/North-Korea-attempts-launch-missile-fails.html

From that article, it looks like I wasn't the only one who keyed in on that black camo faced unit. On the huge new missile carrier, that's covered in the parade hardware analysis article I linked to above - it proves nothing - any major country can make a big missile transporter with a big (empty) tube on top. As far as the CATO, no one that I can find has said for sure what it was, but I read somewhere that it may have been just an extended range SCUD, so possibly not their latest and greatest.

 

[Winston]

In image below, left to right:

KN-11 (Pukkuksong-1) - solid fuel SLBM motor after static firing
KN-11 (Pukkuksong-1) - solid fuel SLBM in flight
Hwasong-10 (BM-25 Musudan) - liquid fuel mobile IRBM in flight

Note the grid fins and exhaust steering vanes used in both their liquid and solid fuel missiles. The mobile, cold launched KN-15 shown in my 1st post here is thought to be just a modified KN-11.

KN-11 motor static test: