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KidRockET

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As we have witnessed fear and panic spread across our land...

We have also witnessed new terms and phrases such as social-distancing and non-essential-business...

The very idea of a non-essential business is a myth at best and a government-inspired fantasy at worst...

Mayors and governors across the nation have forced closure (through threats) of these so-called non-essential businesses...

While allowing “essential” businesses to carry on... What is the criteria for determining this, as It is all extremely arbitrary...

It is arbitrary because there is really no objective way to make such a determination...

Every business is essential to the owners and employees who depend on it for their livelihood...

Try telling the owner of a “non-essential” craft shop that her business is non-essential when her mortgage comes due...

Or a father of 4 to stay home because his chosen profession is non-essential...

I have been attacked in this forum for verbalizing a different point of view...

Our economy is life-sustaining, or at least it was...

No one could possibly possess the knowledge necessary to grasp all of the repercussions of shutting down one business in favor of another...

The economy is an intricately intertwined system as one part depends on another in a symbiotic relationship...

Production and distribution form a long chain of interconnected links and no link in a chain is non-essential...

If you remove one link, however insignificant it might seem, you destroy the entire chain...

That’s exactly what these government officials are doing with their arbitrary closure of “non-essential” businesses...

They may take solace in the fantasy that they are only shutting down that which is non-essential, but they fail to recognize their own ignorance...

They are destroying our economy and I believe these politicians and bureaucrats are acting way outside of their authority...
 

Steve Shannon

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Except you’re wrong. The word “essential“ in this case means that the business provides a service or product that is deemed highly important to the health and welfare of society as a whole. Businesses open and close every day without huge impacts on society. My dad owned a liquor store, laundromat, and car wash. Nothing about any one of them was essential to the town I grew up in even though they put food on my plate and clothes on my back. They were convenience businesses and the town remains healthy now years after those businesses closed.
On the other hand, my uncle Dick ran a fuel business and delivered diesel and propane to farmers. That business was indeed essential to the health and welfare of the community. If farmers don’t have diesel when they need it, crops can go to waste leading to widespread starvation. If farmhouses don’t get propane in the middle of winter, the pipes freeze, the occupants may freeze also, and problems snowball.
People are extraordinarily good at adapting in times of crisis like we’re going through. You can see that now. Businesses are figuring out how to stay in business by changing their business models. They understand that these are necessary measures and short term.
 

Nytrunner

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I can't disagree that severe virus mitigation measures of today will have severe economic impacts if they are prolonged.
I also can't ignore that trying to do business as usual allows a far greater multitude to contract the virus, and a proportionate number of those to require emergency medical treatment that probably won't be available to them.

The extremes are:
-Shut down as much interpersonal physical contact we can and try to save as many lives as possible in the overtaxed hospital system while hoping a vaccine is developed (resulting in continued economic losses over time))
-Shut nothing down, allow the virus to spread as far as it will, rely on at-risk people's good judgement to self-isolate. (resulting in the death of any severe cases that are over the medical system's capacity)

We're in an age of polarization where we're often asked to choose one extreme or the other.
What do you (KidR) believe is a better compromise/middle solution for this situation?
And what can citizens such as you and I do to help make it happen?
 
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cwbullet

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I can't disagree that severe virus mitigation measures of today will have severe economic impacts if they are prolonged.
I also can't ignore that trying to do business as usual allows a far greater multitude to contract the virus, and a proportionate number of those to require emergency medical treatment that probably won't be available to them.

The extremes are:
-Shut down as much interpersonal physical contact we can and try to save as many lives as possible in the overtaxed hospital system while hoping a vaccine is developed (resulting in continued economic losses over time))
-Shut nothing down, allow the virus to spread as far as it will, rely on at-risk people's good judgement to self-isolate. (resulting in the death of any severe cases that are over the medical system's capacity)

We're in an age of polarization where we're often asked to choose one extreme or the other.
What do you believe is a better compromise/middle solution for this situation?
And what can citizens such as you and I do to help make it happen?
This state is one I have to agree with.

100-240K deaths would have a far greater impact than 30 days of nonessential business.
 

Onebadhawk

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This state is one I have to agree with.

100-240K deaths would have a far greater impact than 30 days of nonessential business.
No,
100K yo 240K deaths is the projected number if EVERYONE in this country does EVERYTHING
they should and can do isolate and mitigate the spread of this virus..
If there were not 30 days of isolation and closing of non essential business the projected death count would be far higher..

KidRockET,
Would you please google up the projected death toll if nothing is done to stop this viruses spread and post it here.
Be certain to get your information directly from the US Federal governments task force
( I think the woman working under VP Pence that is doing these projections name is Dr Bix )..
as opposed to getting info from ANY news outlet..
When you post this information here state your case again, about how woeful it is that the economy is going to be damaged.

And Kid,
Where do you live ??
You're quite anonymous in your posts signature line..

I live in New Jersey for the last 25 years or so.
But I'm from the city..

See if while your googling you can find some images of the hospitals in and around New York..
Take a look at what they're going through..

Teddy
 

KidRockET

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...KidRockET,
Would you please google up the projected death toll if nothing is done to stop this viruses spread and post it here...
Please show me where I said nothing needs to be done...

There are a lot of things being done...

Not all of them "essential" in my opinion...
 

Steve Shannon

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Please show me where I said nothing needs to be done...

There are a lot of things being done...

Not all of them "essential" in my opinion...
Opinions are wonderful, but please tell us what you would do differently along with well written reasoning.
 

cwbullet

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No,
100K yo 240K deaths is the projected number if EVERYONE in this country does EVERYTHING
they should and can do isolate and mitigate the spread of this virus..
If there were not 30 days of isolation and closing of non essential business the projected death count would be far higher..
That is incorrect. 100-249K is the estimate based on the factors implements 2-weeks ago.

The current projections are different and better if we implement the current 80% home isolation.
 

Onebadhawk

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That is incorrect. 100-249K is the estimate based on the factors implements 2-weeks ago.

The current projections are different and better if we implement the current 80% home isolation.
I don't get it Chuck.
Yesterday that woman Dr Bix said the 100 to 240 numbers were a best case scenario..
I wonder why our numbers are off each other ?
Maybe we'll know more at the next news conference..

Teddy
 

Speaknoevil

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I don't get it Chuck.
Yesterday that woman Dr Bix said the 100 to 240 numbers were a best case scenario..
I wonder why our numbers are off each other ?
Maybe we'll know more at the next news conference..

Teddy
I believe best case, well at least optimistic, numbers are all that is announced via news conference. There was a post a while back that looked at like 17 projections coming from "experts" that were frankly all over the map. The government (both federal and state), then has to synthesis and average to get to a consensus that is then relayed to the public.
 

Onebadhawk

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I can't find it.
Within the last few days on their press conference she had a graph behind her.
At one point while she was speaking she used the graph to show the two different "curves" of the peak of the spread..
One curve was best case and one was nothing is done..
The death toll on the "nothing is done" curve was unreal..

Teddy
 

Steve Shannon

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I don't get it Chuck.
Yesterday that woman Dr Bix said the 100 to 240 numbers were a best case scenario..
I wonder why our numbers are off each other ?
Maybe we'll know more at the next news conference..

Teddy
On Sunday, Drs. Fauci and Bix said that best case was probably around 100k deaths. Someone asked how many would die if we did nothing and the answer was 2.2 MILLION. Since then the number I have been hearing most frequently has been 100k to 200k. Of course I have no access to the models or projections that Chuck has.
 

Onebadhawk

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Yeah,
It was a crazy number like that, in the millions..
I couldn't believe it..

Teddy
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Please show me where I said nothing needs to be done...

There are a lot of things being done...

Not all of them "essential" in my opinion...
The thing is you complain about things, but don’t offer any ideas or alternatives. We get that you are concerned about people’s economic well-being. But if all you are going to do is say how concerned you are without offering an idea, all you are doing is empty “virtue signaling” about how concerned you are. Do you have an idea? Or do you just want your feelings validated?

I validate your feelings @KidRockET !!! You are right to be concerned! We all feel the same way! These no-win situations with nothing but bad options are very sad!
 

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I believe best case, well at least optimistic, numbers are all that is announced via news conference. There was a post a while back that looked at like 17 projections coming from "experts" that were frankly all over the map. The government (both federal and state), then has to synthesis and average to get to a consensus that is then relayed to the public.
Right. The list of projections I posted came from the fivethirtyeight.com site.

As I've heard the last few days were much worse than expected (the ramp from 500 /day to yesterday 1300/day). Distancing working to blunt the curve where implemented and adhered, but some places are too slow to implement, hence the strong rise.

I urge everyone to isolate.
 

kuririn

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It's choosing the lesser of two evils, kid.
Death is permanent.
Economic damage can be recovered from.
That's what the $2.2 trillion recovery act is for.
Hopefully all this passes in a few months and we can return to business as usual.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Yeah,
It was a crazy number like that, in the millions..
I couldn't believe it..

Teddy
Teddy, I know the graph you are talking about and the numbers Birx shared. Many experts were not exactly sure how those graphs were generated or where they came up with those numbers, because the government didn’t share their methodology.

The best guess is that the lower curve with an estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 is pretty close to a model used by the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation in Washington state. And the high curve and estimate of 2.2 million is probably the one generated in the UK for worst-case scenarios.

The thing is that these two models were generated with different methods and different assumptions and for different purposes, so it’s not like they should really be combined into a single best-case / worst-case graph.

But the main message is probably correct—it’s deadly serious, hundreds of thousands or maybe even millions of lives are at stake, and distancing makes the outcomes better.
 

EXPjawa

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I can't find it.
Within the last few days on their press conference she had a graph behind her.
At one point while she was speaking she used the graph to show the two different "curves" of the peak of the spread..
One curve was best case and one was nothing is done..
The death toll on the "nothing is done" curve was unreal..

Teddy
Teddy, I was watching the same briefing. I took away from it the same thing you did, which is why when they were talking about trying to get under even the best-case scenario curve, I found it confusing. How do you beat best-case?
 

KidRockET

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The 2.2M projection is meaningless...

What is the point of making such statements or...

Journalists asking such stupid questions... As if we would do-nothing...

Of course we have to try and mitigate the problem...

But with common sense and not by creating another problem...

I'm in complete agreement with the grouch...

We have been conditioned to change our behavior...

In the name of safety at the drop of a hat... I was social distancing long before...

It was a buzz-phrase... And like him, I will continue to not lick...

Random strangers at the grocery store, and will continue to wash my hands...
 

KidRockET

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It's choosing the lesser of two evils, kid.
Death is permanent.
Economic damage can be recovered from.
That's what the $2.2 trillion recovery act is for.
Hopefully all this passes in a few months and we can return to business as usual.
You can not spend your way to prosperity...
 

Steve Shannon

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The 2.2M projection is meaningless...

What is the point of making such statements or...

Journalists asking such stupid questions... As if we would do-nothing...

Of course we have to try and mitigate the problem...

But with common sense and not by creating another problem...

I'm in complete agreement with the grouch...

We have been conditioned to change our behavior...

In the name of safety at the drop of a hat... I was social distancing long before...

It was a buzz-phrase... And like him, I will continue to not lick...

Random strangers at the grocery store, and will continue to wash my hands...
So what would you do differently?
 

kuririn

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You can not spend your way to prosperity...
The Economic Recovery Bill passed by Congress after the 2008 crash shows otherwise.
Also, even without a virus the stock market goes through cycles of bull and bear.
Economics 101. Google bull and bear market for info.
 

Onebadhawk

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It's choosing the lesser of two evils, kid.
Death is permanent.
Economic damage can be recovered from.
That's what the $2.2 trillion recovery act is for.
Hopefully all this passes in a few months and we can return to business as usual.
Hey,,
That's well put..
Death is permanent..
Everything else we can work on..

Teddy, I know the graph you are talking about and the numbers Birx shared. Many experts were not exactly sure how those graphs were generated or where they came up with those numbers, because the government didn’t share their methodology.

The best guess is that the lower curve with an estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 is pretty close to a model used by the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation in Washington state. And the high curve and estimate of 2.2 million is probably the one generated in the UK for worst-case scenarios.

The thing is that these two models were generated with different methods and different assumptions and for different purposes, so it’s not like they should really be combined into a single best-case / worst-case graph.

But the main message is probably correct—it’s deadly serious, hundreds of thousands or maybe even millions of lives are at stake, and distancing makes the outcomes better.
Eric, I kinda thought I heard them say that we're coming really close to mimicking the trajectory the spread ran in Italy..
So they extrapolated the numbers from their curve..
I hate to speculate especially on something so serious and that I know so little about but aren't we far enough along this trajectory / curve
of ours that the projections would be fairly accurate if we simply
extend the curve / base our projections from somewhere else that we're on a very similar path with ??


Teddy, I was watching the same briefing. I took away from it the same thing you did, which is why when they were talking about trying to get under even the best-case scenario curve, I found it confusing. How do you beat best-case?
Rick,
That's really similar to my concerns over what they said..
In that briefing first they spoke of how there are way to many in this country that aren't taking this seriously..
On a beautiful day Cuomo saw dense gatherings in the city parks..
After all the city is so densely populated, at least I can get out of my home and not be near anyone if I want..
That's more difficult in the city..
Then a while later in the same briefing they spoke of those projections with the graphs..
100 to 240 s best case..
People aren't doing what they want them to do..
People aren't isolating enough.
But we want to beat best case ???????????????

I'm sorry man but WTF........

Teddy
 

Onebadhawk

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The Economic Recovery Bill passed by Congress after the 2008 crash shows otherwise.
Also, even without a virus the stock market goes through cycles of bull and bear.
Economics 101. Google bull and bear market for info.
Ha,,
Over a week ago after the consecutive crash after crash after crash I decided now's the time..
I got in..

Please ohh please don't ask me how that worked out for me, lol..

Teddy
 

KidRockET

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The Economic Recovery Bill passed by Congress after the 2008 crash shows otherwise.
Also, even without a virus the stock market goes through cycles of bull and bear.
Economics 101. Google bull and bear market for info.
Economics 101 - increased money supply results in dilution and inflation...
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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This is going to be an economic disaster no matter what we do, so I think we should save as many lives as we can with strict stay at home orders, then sort out the economics afterward.

Our healthcare system in this country may be clinically good, but the way we pay for it and insure it is a rickety, patched-together, kludge. That is going to be a complete financial meltdown, with millions of personal medical bankruptcies, insurance company bankruptcies, and hospital bankruptcies. It’s not going to help matters to do a bad job of isolating and have a meltdown of the clinical part of our healthcare system too, with hospital capacity maxed out, medical staff unprotected, and patients sent home or to a tent in the parking lot to die.

After the medical crisis if over, we will probably be in a recession or depression. The good news is, we had a practice run of one of those just a decade ago, and I think we learned a lot of lessons about that. And the main lesson was, don’t be afraid to spend the money to get things moving again. Think in terms of $10 trillion or so.
 

KidRockET

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This is going to be an economic disaster no matter what we do, so I think we should save as many lives as we can with strict stay at home orders, then sort out the economics afterward.

Our healthcare system in this country may be clinically good, but the way we pay for it and insure it is a rickety, patched-together, kludge. That is going to be a complete financial meltdown, with millions of personal medical bankruptcies, insurance company bankruptcies, and hospital bankruptcies. It’s not going to help matters to do a bad job of isolating and have a meltdown of the clinical part of our healthcare system too, with hospital capacity maxed out, medical staff unprotected, and patients sent home or to a tent in the parking lot to die.

After the medical crisis if over, we will probably be in a recession or depression. The good news is, we had a practice run of one of those just a decade ago, and I think we learned a lot of lessons about that. And the main lesson was, don’t be afraid to spend the money to get things moving again. Think in terms of $10 trillion or so.
Damn - I hope you are wrong...

Whoever said that one person can't change the world...

Never ate an undercooked bat...
 
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