Winston
Lorenzo von Matterhorn
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China's puppet puts on an extremely impressive multi-media production with loads of new China-enabled military hardware shown.
Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy
A giant new intercontinental ballistic missile was just one of the many revelations from the remarkably well-produced showcase of authoritarian might.
OCTOBER 10, 2020
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...war-machine-he-built-while-feinting-diplomacy
Excerpts:
Let's get to what was shown. We need to start with the two big strategic developments. A handful of absolutely massive new intercontinental ballistic missiles were rolled through Kim Il Sung Square. This would be the third iteration of the ICBM concept for the North Koreans, having already unveiled and tested the Hwasong HS-14 and HS-15 in 2017. This new missile looks to be a significant outgrowth of the already monstrous HS-15, which is suspected of being able to reach pretty much anywhere in the United States, although its terminal delivery capabilities remain a puzzle, as is the case for the HS-14 and other longer-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead in Pyongyang's arsenal.
It isn't clear if this is just a longer-ranged, more advanced evolution of the prior design, or if this is intended to deliver a heavier payload, as well, namely multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
Beyond this new weapon's capabilities, the biggest question is where did North Korea get the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) to haul around such a giant ICBM. The previous TEL for the HS-15 had nine axles, this one has 11. The previous TEL is thought to have been acquired from China and modified. It isn't clear if these have a similar chain of custody or if North Korea is actually manufacturing its own massive TELs now, which almost seems likely at this point if this is missile it wants to produce going forward.
There is the question of just how mobile an 11 axle TEL carrying this wide of a missile really is. These would likely be used to roll out of hardened and hidden shelters to predetermined firing points that don't have obstacles that could block their path. In other words, they wouldn't just roam freely. Although we need a bit more time to research it to claim this unequivocally, we do believe this is one of, if not the largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missiles on earth. All of the other Hwasong series missiles have been liquid-fueled, but it is possible that this is a hybrid missile, with a top stage being solid fuel, as well. North Korea has made considerable advances in solid fuel rocket propulsion in recent years.
The strategic implications of this weapon are large for a number of reasons. Its existence points to a need for flight testing, which could see those types of provocative activities return to our reality. More than that, they underscore just how hard North Korea has continued to work on its strategic programs long after a new era in diplomacy was declared. Nearly three years is a long time. This is a manifestation of what they have been up to while the love affair between Trump and Kim has been ongoing even though the regime has never shown one iota of intention of giving up its nuclear stockpile or the delivery systems that underpin it.
Arguably just as impactful as the new ICBM is the reveal of the Pukguksong-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The inclusion of these weapons is another indication that North Korea has shifted considerable resources to developing some type of submarine-borne second-strike deterrent. We have seen the reworked Soviet-era sub they are adapting for this role, at least as an interim solution, and the country has tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile during this period of diplomatic detente.
It's also worth noting that the solid fuel Pukguksong-2 SLBM was supposedly adapted to create the KN-15 road-mobile short to medium-range ballistic missile. There is no reason to think they won't adapt this more advanced variant to a ground-launched form, also. Solid fuel ballistic missiles are far harder to counter prior to launch as they take no time to fuel before being fired. The KN-15 was also on display during the parade.
Developments on the tactical side of North Korea's missile equation are just as stunning. North Korea paraded a host of its new generation of very large rocket artillery systems. These border on the tactical ballistic missile definition, to some degree, and are meant to rain warheads down deep inside South Korean territory during the opening stages of a conflict. North Korea's rapid development and fielding of these jumbo rocket artillery systems have changed the risk equation for South Korea. Whereas areas not too far from the DMZ, including part of Seoul, were at risk of artillery bombardment in the past, that zone now pushes far deeper to the south as a result of these systems, all of which are new or developed relatively recently. These systems are also less costly and challenging for North Korea to build compared to their strategic counterparts, so serial production can be realized on a far greater scale.
Many more photos at article link above:
Parades start at 1:00:00:
Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy
A giant new intercontinental ballistic missile was just one of the many revelations from the remarkably well-produced showcase of authoritarian might.
OCTOBER 10, 2020
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...war-machine-he-built-while-feinting-diplomacy
Excerpts:
Let's get to what was shown. We need to start with the two big strategic developments. A handful of absolutely massive new intercontinental ballistic missiles were rolled through Kim Il Sung Square. This would be the third iteration of the ICBM concept for the North Koreans, having already unveiled and tested the Hwasong HS-14 and HS-15 in 2017. This new missile looks to be a significant outgrowth of the already monstrous HS-15, which is suspected of being able to reach pretty much anywhere in the United States, although its terminal delivery capabilities remain a puzzle, as is the case for the HS-14 and other longer-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead in Pyongyang's arsenal.
It isn't clear if this is just a longer-ranged, more advanced evolution of the prior design, or if this is intended to deliver a heavier payload, as well, namely multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
Beyond this new weapon's capabilities, the biggest question is where did North Korea get the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) to haul around such a giant ICBM. The previous TEL for the HS-15 had nine axles, this one has 11. The previous TEL is thought to have been acquired from China and modified. It isn't clear if these have a similar chain of custody or if North Korea is actually manufacturing its own massive TELs now, which almost seems likely at this point if this is missile it wants to produce going forward.
There is the question of just how mobile an 11 axle TEL carrying this wide of a missile really is. These would likely be used to roll out of hardened and hidden shelters to predetermined firing points that don't have obstacles that could block their path. In other words, they wouldn't just roam freely. Although we need a bit more time to research it to claim this unequivocally, we do believe this is one of, if not the largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missiles on earth. All of the other Hwasong series missiles have been liquid-fueled, but it is possible that this is a hybrid missile, with a top stage being solid fuel, as well. North Korea has made considerable advances in solid fuel rocket propulsion in recent years.
The strategic implications of this weapon are large for a number of reasons. Its existence points to a need for flight testing, which could see those types of provocative activities return to our reality. More than that, they underscore just how hard North Korea has continued to work on its strategic programs long after a new era in diplomacy was declared. Nearly three years is a long time. This is a manifestation of what they have been up to while the love affair between Trump and Kim has been ongoing even though the regime has never shown one iota of intention of giving up its nuclear stockpile or the delivery systems that underpin it.
Arguably just as impactful as the new ICBM is the reveal of the Pukguksong-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The inclusion of these weapons is another indication that North Korea has shifted considerable resources to developing some type of submarine-borne second-strike deterrent. We have seen the reworked Soviet-era sub they are adapting for this role, at least as an interim solution, and the country has tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile during this period of diplomatic detente.
It's also worth noting that the solid fuel Pukguksong-2 SLBM was supposedly adapted to create the KN-15 road-mobile short to medium-range ballistic missile. There is no reason to think they won't adapt this more advanced variant to a ground-launched form, also. Solid fuel ballistic missiles are far harder to counter prior to launch as they take no time to fuel before being fired. The KN-15 was also on display during the parade.
Developments on the tactical side of North Korea's missile equation are just as stunning. North Korea paraded a host of its new generation of very large rocket artillery systems. These border on the tactical ballistic missile definition, to some degree, and are meant to rain warheads down deep inside South Korean territory during the opening stages of a conflict. North Korea's rapid development and fielding of these jumbo rocket artillery systems have changed the risk equation for South Korea. Whereas areas not too far from the DMZ, including part of Seoul, were at risk of artillery bombardment in the past, that zone now pushes far deeper to the south as a result of these systems, all of which are new or developed relatively recently. These systems are also less costly and challenging for North Korea to build compared to their strategic counterparts, so serial production can be realized on a far greater scale.
Many more photos at article link above:
Parades start at 1:00:00:
