We could send just one submarine-full of nukes, and see if that helps the negotiations.
We could send just one submarine-full of nukes, and see if that helps the negotiations.
Europe is in a real bind when it comes to energy.
Unfortunately the "West" is essentially Germany and the US.One well place bomb on the Nord Stream pipeline and kicking the reds out of SWIFT will end things quickly. The west will flock to the aid of Germany (ie EU) but do nothing to support Russia. That is the leverage.
Russia deployed two S-400 SAM batteries to Belarus. NATO will have a hard time enforcing a no-fly zone given Russian air defenses.Would NATO enforce a no fly zone over the Ukraine if Ukraine requested? That is the only way to enable the Ukraine regulars any ground resistance. Otherwise Russian airpower would render defensivec ground forces useless.
No fly zone over Ukraine not Russia or Russian puppet territory. Plus military signal intelligience would just love to get a S-400 signal on themRussia deployed two S-400 SAM batteries to Belarus. NATO will have a hard time enforcing a no-fly zone given Russian air defenses.
Europe is in a real bind when it comes to energy.
Agreed. And I believe Russian oil and coal are also in that energy mix.Europe is not a homogenous bloc so some countries will feel it more than others. Eastern Europe and Germany are far more dependent on Russian gas than Western Europe. The UK and Scandinavian countries have access to gas from the North Sea, which is also supplied to France and Netherlands. The UK also has LNG imports from the Gulf and other suppliers and is fairly resilient.
If Russia cuts supplies I'd expect that current stored gas would sustain Europe for a while. Longer term some eastern countries could be supplied from the west, but there would be shortages and price hikes.
Long term - I think Russia would be in serious doodoo if it cut supplies. Gas is one of their most reliable sources of income. The last thing they would want is to see Europe find alternative supplies.
MANPADS ?No fly zone over Ukraine not Russia or Russian puppet territory. Plus military signal intelligience would just love to get a S-400 signal on them
I'm betting Zelensky will declare neutrality; peace and prosperity return for all.
She is anticipating the Russian invasion beginning immediately after the Winter Olympics are over. Same pattern as the invasion of Crimea.My Mrs brother now lives in the states, his ex wife and son still live in Odessa. She just contacted the Mrs and asked for the BIL to sign the document to allow her to take the boy out of Ukraine. Her words are, It needs to be done before the 21st of the month. After then it will be too late. I have no idea what she knows, that we don't.
I agree with you and her. Just read on Reuters of Weds timing. O (former SIL) is saying next Monday. It all sounds ominous. I fully think he (Putin) will stick to his tried and true. Twice he has invaded or used rues of "protection for "Our People" for attacks during or soon after the end of the Olympics.She is anticipating the Russian invasion beginning immediately after the Winter Olympics are over. Same pattern as the invasion of Crimea.
Good! Now the bet is on.It's impossible to declare "neutrality" when parts of your country are occupied by armed forces of the belligerent and militant neighbor (Russia).
There will be neither peace nor prosperity in Central Europe until Russia is properly contained.
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There will be neither peace nor prosperity in Central Europe until Russia is properly contained.
Zelensky reportedly declined to identify the source of his information, but the announcement comes amid a sharp, recent increase in tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
Tyrants never know when to stop... and that is ultimately their downfall. History is rife with examples...Found another interesting read:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-will-not-stop-ukraine
Interesting read. IMHO, Putin sees himself as the new Czar of Russia and is working to reclaim former Russian territories one piece at a time.Tyrants never know when to stop... and that is ultimately their downfall. History is rife with examples...
What makes you think we don't have one or more already there to launch at Moscow the first sign of the outbreak of war?We could send just one submarine-full of nukes, and see if that helps the negotiations.
I thought this was obvious!!!Interesting read. IMHO, Putin sees himself as the new Czar of Russia and is working to reclaim former Russian territories one piece at a time.
Last night on the news there was a guy being interviewed that said if Russia invades the Ukraine, Putin will become the New Hitler.
You would think with the Trillions of dollars spent on black opps we could find a way to retire Putin permanently and avoid world crises.
Don't ya all think? I mean, that's why the black opps exist after all.
What makes you think we don't have one or more already there to launch at Moscow the first sign of the outbreak of war?
I'm betting that we have not only submarines, but a host of surface ships on the ready and close by ready to react in minutes.
Don't even need the nukes - just get "open defense assistance" agreement from Ukraine, and send a Virginia or two to "practice" on Russian rust buckets in the Black Sea.
Our sub force hasn't had any live fire practices in a while (unlike AF and Army/Marines), and they can use a good turkey shoot. Russians trespass across Ukrainian sea boundaries (Crimea is technically Ukraine, BTW), they become sea reefs. Sounds pretty reasonable and safe, and in full compliance with international laws.
Come to think of it, F35s are not combat proven either. Maybe expand that agreement to the air domain as well!?
That doesn't keep it from happening occasionally, of course... usually by an individual with an opposing state's agenda.Other than that very thing (state sponsored assassinations of heads of state) being illegal as per international law and multiple treaties? Because they have 'black opps' folks just as good as ours. Think of it like a nuclear arsenal, using it only brings mutually assured destruction.
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