NATO relations with Ukraine

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afadeev

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We could send just one submarine-full of nukes, and see if that helps the negotiations. :)

Don't even need the nukes - just get "open defense assistance" agreement from Ukraine, and send a Virginia or two to "practice" on Russian rust buckets in the Black Sea.
Our sub force hasn't had any live fire practices in a while (unlike AF and Army/Marines), and they can use a good turkey shoot. Russians trespass across Ukrainian sea boundaries (Crimea is technically Ukraine, BTW), they become sea reefs. Sounds pretty reasonable and safe, and in full compliance with international laws.

Come to think of it, F35s are not combat proven either. Maybe expand that agreement to the air domain as well!?
;)


Europe is in a real bind when it comes to energy.

You keep posting pro-Russian propaganda from dubious sources. What gives?

Europe has been buying hydrocarbons from Russians/Soviets for ages, without negative impacts or loss of principles from anyone in the West.
It's a bigger bind for Russians than Europeans.
Europeans can get gas from elsewhere (Norway, UK, US), but Russians would quickly run out of currency reserves and won't be able to pay for their military without income from hydrocarbon and mineral sales:
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a
 
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jderimig

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One well place bomb on the Nord Stream pipeline and kicking the reds out of SWIFT will end things quickly. The west will flock to the aid of Germany (ie EU) but do nothing to support Russia. That is the leverage.
Unfortunately the "West" is essentially Germany and the US.
 

jderimig

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Would NATO enforce a no fly zone over the Ukraine if Ukraine requested? That is the only way to enable the Ukraine regulars any ground resistance. Otherwise Russian airpower would render defensivec ground forces useless.
 

Rob Campbell

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Would NATO enforce a no fly zone over the Ukraine if Ukraine requested? That is the only way to enable the Ukraine regulars any ground resistance. Otherwise Russian airpower would render defensivec ground forces useless.
Russia deployed two S-400 SAM batteries to Belarus. NATO will have a hard time enforcing a no-fly zone given Russian air defenses.
 

jderimig

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Russia deployed two S-400 SAM batteries to Belarus. NATO will have a hard time enforcing a no-fly zone given Russian air defenses.
No fly zone over Ukraine not Russia or Russian puppet territory. Plus military signal intelligience would just love to get a S-400 signal on them
 

PhilC

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Europe is in a real bind when it comes to energy.

Europe is not a homogenous bloc so some countries will feel it more than others. Eastern Europe and Germany are far more dependent on Russian gas than Western Europe. The UK and Scandinavian countries have access to gas from the North Sea, which is also supplied to France and Netherlands. The UK also has LNG imports from the Gulf and other suppliers and is fairly resilient.
If Russia cuts supplies I'd expect that current stored gas would sustain Europe for a while. Longer term some eastern countries could be supplied from the west, but there would be shortages and price hikes.
Long term - I think Russia would be in serious doodoo if it cut supplies. Gas is one of their most reliable sources of income. The last thing they would want is to see Europe find alternative supplies.
 

Dotini

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Europe is not a homogenous bloc so some countries will feel it more than others. Eastern Europe and Germany are far more dependent on Russian gas than Western Europe. The UK and Scandinavian countries have access to gas from the North Sea, which is also supplied to France and Netherlands. The UK also has LNG imports from the Gulf and other suppliers and is fairly resilient.
If Russia cuts supplies I'd expect that current stored gas would sustain Europe for a while. Longer term some eastern countries could be supplied from the west, but there would be shortages and price hikes.
Long term - I think Russia would be in serious doodoo if it cut supplies. Gas is one of their most reliable sources of income. The last thing they would want is to see Europe find alternative supplies.
Agreed. And I believe Russian oil and coal are also in that energy mix.
 

afadeev

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I'm betting Zelensky will declare neutrality; peace and prosperity return for all.

It's impossible to declare "neutrality" when parts of your country are occupied by armed forces of the belligerent and militant neighbor (Russia).
There will be neither peace nor prosperity in Central Europe until Russia is properly contained.

a
 

TSMILLER

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My Mrs brother now lives in the states, his ex wife and son still live in Odessa. She just contacted the Mrs and asked for the BIL to sign the document to allow her to take the boy out of Ukraine. Her words are, It needs to be done before the 21st of the month. After then it will be too late. I have no idea what she knows, that we don't.
 

Rob Campbell

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My Mrs brother now lives in the states, his ex wife and son still live in Odessa. She just contacted the Mrs and asked for the BIL to sign the document to allow her to take the boy out of Ukraine. Her words are, It needs to be done before the 21st of the month. After then it will be too late. I have no idea what she knows, that we don't.
She is anticipating the Russian invasion beginning immediately after the Winter Olympics are over. Same pattern as the invasion of Crimea.
 

TSMILLER

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She is anticipating the Russian invasion beginning immediately after the Winter Olympics are over. Same pattern as the invasion of Crimea.
I agree with you and her. Just read on Reuters of Weds timing. O (former SIL) is saying next Monday. It all sounds ominous. I fully think he (Putin) will stick to his tried and true. Twice he has invaded or used rues of "protection for "Our People" for attacks during or soon after the end of the Olympics.
Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 took place during the summer Olympics in Beijing. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 took place during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. Why not make it a "hat trick" and complete a take over after another China Olympics?
 

Dotini

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It's impossible to declare "neutrality" when parts of your country are occupied by armed forces of the belligerent and militant neighbor (Russia).
There will be neither peace nor prosperity in Central Europe until Russia is properly contained.

a
Good! Now the bet is on.

"Of all sad words of tongue and pen, the saddest are these: it might have been!"

-John Greenleaf Whittier

"The happiest words are: I told you so!"
-Gore Vidal
 

Peartree

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There will be neither peace nor prosperity in Central Europe until Russia is properly contained.

That was the whole intent of forming NATO wasn't it?

Of course, having a son that is a M1 Abrams tank commander, this entire conversation is more than a little... un-nerving.
 

TSMILLER

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country is expecting an attack later this week, CNN reported Monday.
In a message Zelensky posted on social media, the Ukrainian president said his administration has been informed that his country will be attacked on Wednesday, Feb. 16.
Zelensky reportedly declined to identify the source of his information, but the announcement comes amid a sharp, recent increase in tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Нам кажуть, що 16 лютого стане днем нападу. Ми зробимо його Днем єднання. Відповідний указ уже підписано. Цього дня ми вивісимо національні прапори, надягнемо синьо-жовті стрічки та покажемо всьому світу нашу єдність.
Translated roughly:
We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity. The relevant decree has already been signed. On this day, we will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity.
 
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Peartree

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Zelensky reportedly declined to identify the source of his information, but the announcement comes amid a sharp, recent increase in tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

We know that there are Ukrainians that are sympathetic to Russian interests. It isn't difficult to imagine that there might be persons in the Russian Army that are sympathetic to Ukraine.
 

cerving

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Found another interesting read:

Tyrants never know when to stop... and that is ultimately their downfall. History is rife with examples...
 

Woody's Workshop

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We could send just one submarine-full of nukes, and see if that helps the negotiations. :)
What makes you think we don't have one or more already there to launch at Moscow the first sign of the outbreak of war?
I'm betting that we have not only submarines, but a host of surface ships on the ready and close by ready to react in minutes.
 

Woody's Workshop

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Last night on the news there was a guy being interviewed that said if Russia invades the Ukraine, Putin will become the New Hitler.
You would think with the Trillions of dollars spent on black opps we could find a way to retire Putin permanently and avoid world crises.
Don't ya all think? I mean, that's why the black opps exist after all.
 

Banzai88

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Last night on the news there was a guy being interviewed that said if Russia invades the Ukraine, Putin will become the New Hitler.
You would think with the Trillions of dollars spent on black opps we could find a way to retire Putin permanently and avoid world crises.
Don't ya all think? I mean, that's why the black opps exist after all.

Other than that very thing (state sponsored assassinations of heads of state) being illegal as per international law and multiple treaties? Because they have 'black opps' folks just as good as ours. Think of it like a nuclear arsenal, using it only brings mutually assured destruction.
 

boatgeek

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What makes you think we don't have one or more already there to launch at Moscow the first sign of the outbreak of war?
I'm betting that we have not only submarines, but a host of surface ships on the ready and close by ready to react in minutes.

Don't even need the nukes - just get "open defense assistance" agreement from Ukraine, and send a Virginia or two to "practice" on Russian rust buckets in the Black Sea.
Our sub force hasn't had any live fire practices in a while (unlike AF and Army/Marines), and they can use a good turkey shoot. Russians trespass across Ukrainian sea boundaries (Crimea is technically Ukraine, BTW), they become sea reefs. Sounds pretty reasonable and safe, and in full compliance with international laws.

Come to think of it, F35s are not combat proven either. Maybe expand that agreement to the air domain as well!?
;)

I'm as eager as the next guy for Putin to get a black eye. That said, I'm not excited about the prospect of a shooting war with Russia. I have no doubt we'd win, but the costs in lives and treasure would still be high. Also, it turns out that there are pretty strict limits on passage of submarines into the Black Sea, as in it's not allowed unless one is a Black Sea state. The US couldn't legally send a Virginia class sub through.
 

cerving

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Other than that very thing (state sponsored assassinations of heads of state) being illegal as per international law and multiple treaties? Because they have 'black opps' folks just as good as ours. Think of it like a nuclear arsenal, using it only brings mutually assured destruction.
That doesn't keep it from happening occasionally, of course... usually by an individual with an opposing state's agenda.
 

Enocelot

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The USA and the UK have a comittment through the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.

At the time The Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power on Earth.

Part of the agreement that enticed the Ukrainians to denuke was that the USA, UK and Russia promised to respect and defend Ukrainian sovereignty.

No one talks about that.

NATO owes Ukraine nothing, but the USA and UK do, unilaterally.
 
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