Must watch presentation on the replacement of fossil fuels.
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Really good info. I’ve said it before, I have nothing against EV’s. Tesla’s are pretty cool and in the right situation I would seriously consider owning one. Not to think I’m saving the world but because . . . well because they’re cool.
The challenge for EV’s has always been one of scalability. I don’t see that changing no matter what the political class pushes.
The challenge for EV’s has always been one of scalability. I don’t see that changing no matter what the political class pushes.
lakeroadster
When in doubt... build hell-for-stout!
... and this would all work itself out, if capitalism was allowed to play out, without using federal incentives and tax breaks paid by the masses.
Instead, the talking head chicken littles of the world are driving an agenda that is much like following the lemming in front of you.... off a cliff.
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All others please watch the video. The problem is that fossil fuel production is declining while consumption is increasing. We will stop using fossil fuels not by choice but by necessity. The problem is that there are not enough minerals in the ground for the transition, not even close. See post 3 and 4. Since it takes 10-20 years after new reserves are discovered to get a mine into production, net zero or anything even close to it by 2050 is a pipe dream.
What is shocking to me is that this basic analysis hasn't been done.
What is shocking to me is that this basic analysis hasn't been done.
rharshberger
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I watched the video, and can see where he is going. Would like to see more of this type analysis, and conclusions by more sources. Not going to diagree with Dr. Michaux's analysis.
Prof. Michaux briefly mentions recycling the hardware (batteries, wind turbines) and said he "expects" that "maybe" you can reclaim 30% of some but not all minerals. But recycling via the hydrometallurgy process is reclaiming 95-98% of these metals right now. The problem is that there are not enough end of life batteries out there now to make a recycling business profitable. That will change in ten years. And if 95-98% of metals can be reclaimed then that will greatly reduce the need for new mining operations.
https://www.govtech.com/news/naviga...ery,03, 2021 • Riley Beggin, The Detroit News
https://www.govtech.com/news/naviga...ery,03, 2021 • Riley Beggin, The Detroit News
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You can't get anywhere near the batteries needed for EV and backup storage with current reserves and production of lithium. Michaux says a new chemistry will be needed. Also copper is big problem. There just isnt enough minerals to get to any appreciable global renewable energy contribution anytime soon.
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I believe recycling tech will get much better, it has to. But you need to get the first generation in place before you can recycle. Michaux suggests the path will be very difficult to establish the significant 1st generation renewable infrastructure in place. The Q/A at the end was very interesting, too bad the hosts cut it short.
Money talks.
The demand will be met.
Governments will pass legislation to subsidize and expedite the mining process.
New companies will be formed that will become the Exxons and Shells of the sustainable energy industry. Their lifeblood will be minerals.
And like the fossil fuel industry, known reserves is not the same as what's out there.
Particularly if there has not been much prior incentive to look for it.
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Nope, not happinin'.
Funkworks
Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
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The EIA has lots of info on energy transitions - good stuff.
https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-transitions
"The IEA is committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all"
https://www.iea.org/about
https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-transitions
"The IEA is committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all"
https://www.iea.org/about
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Funkworks
Low Earth Orbit, obstructing Earth's view of Venus
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My question: What will Dom drive in the next Fast & Furious? 
https://www.motortrend.com/news/meet-dodge-charger-daytona-srt-ev-thatll-kick-hellcats-ass/
https://www.motortrend.com/news/meet-dodge-charger-daytona-srt-ev-thatll-kick-hellcats-ass/
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I meant as long as there are fire breathing toys, it ain't happening.
Is that the Dodge Charger, or Discharger?
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None of these references addresses the mineral constraints that are the topic of this thread. All these similar articles assume that the raw materials and supply chain is in place for the transition.
We can't produce enough baby formula or enough chips to finish F150 truck assembly how are we going to increase the production of copper and nickle 2 orders of magnitude from rapidly decreasing ore quality? That seems to be the elephant in the room.
How does on reconcile the data in post #3 to the goals of net zero in 20 years? Or even 50 years. Just saying the materials will be delivered shows an total non-understanding on how long reserve discovery to mine production takes.
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the elephant in the room is, why does everyone assume that all 8 Billion people need to have their own car!? that's just crazy. there are so many options between that and the consequent resource depletion and earth destruction ... and anything more rational.
rharshberger
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Many people just see the statements that there is X percentage of this element in the Earths crust and fail to remember that unless its relatively "easy" to get at ie. in high concentrations and "near" the surface its not financially feasable to mine and process. I think the TRF crowd understands this better than most, but its still a factor. The earths crust is pretty thin but still anywhere from 3-25miles thick and most mining happens in the first 2500' of depth or much less.
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For me it's not about need. It's about want.
I want to be able to drive to my father's house whenever I want to, and get there without needing to stop overnight to charge a car when I can get there with my ICE Jeep in less than one tank.
I want to be able to get in my Jeep and drive up the trails without hoping there's a charging station out in the middle of nowhere on the side of a mountain.
lakeroadster
When in doubt... build hell-for-stout!
Liberty and Freedom.. yep, agreed.
And that middle of nowhere you mentioned... some of us live there.
Policy making big city folk tend to not think about anything but their little nich of the world. It's a great big planet. Those big cities plans and policies don't work in some places... dare I say most places.
And while our policy makers are passing laws that will cripple our war machine, like depleting the national petroleum reserves while at the same time crippling our nations ability to extract petroleum... China, Russia, India and Iran have no problem at all with using ICE's.
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I recently drove from Washington State to the Midwest. I have tremendous range in my diesel truck (and tremendous load carrying capacity) and even I got a bit of “range anxiety” in places. Trying it in an EV would take some serious planning and a huge number of long stops to top off the charge. Probably why I didn’t see a single Tesla for over 1,800 miles.
What works in high density/short distance markets is a long ways from working in some of the wide open spaces.
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