Mask Wearing Rant

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ThirstyBarbarian

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A blatantly false narrative. The data says something completely different. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

BTW the graph for hospitalizations looks the same.

It’s a shame that you call Americans who have lost their jobs, their savings, and businesses that they worked a lifetime to build “pathetic, whiney weaklings”. Truly shameful.
You are obviously mischaracterizing what I said. I am clearly calling the people who refuse to make the simple sacrifices required to win against this virus, like wearing masks and social distancing pathetic, whiny weaklings, not people who have lost jobs, savings, or businesses. Those people have legitimate financial problems as a result of this pandemic that are not their fault and are out of their control, and they deserve help from all of us. In the spirit of collective sacrifice in the face of a disaster, we should all do what we can for them, and our government should also help them get back on their feet. Likewise, in the spirit of collective sacrifice, we should all do what we can to prevent the spread of the virus, like wear a mask in public when social distancing is not possible. So easy.

BTW, Your link doesn’t have anything to do with what I was talking about. Zero relevance to wearing masks.
 

Tyeeking

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You are obviously mischaracterizing what I said. I am clearly calling the people who refuse to make the simple sacrifices required to win against this virus, like wearing masks and social distancing pathetic, whiny weaklings, not people who have lost jobs, savings, or businesses. Those people have legitimate financial problems as a result of this pandemic that are not their fault and are out of their control, and they deserve help from all of us. In the spirit of collective sacrifice in the face of a disaster, we should all do what we can for them, and our government should also help them get back on their feet. Likewise, in the spirit of collective sacrifice, we should all do what we can to prevent the spread of the virus, like wear a mask in public when social distancing is not possible. So easy.

BTW, Your link doesn’t have anything to do with what I was talking about. Zero relevance to wearing masks.
You implied that we are losing the fight yet hospitalizations and deaths are way down. The data shows that. Tell me how that is “losing the fight” (your words)

Did it occur to you that some of the people questioning the validity of wearing “homemade bandana masks” might also be people who have made great sacrifice through lost jobs, lost savings, and lost businesses? I know several people that very much question the validity of these homemade masks and who have also suffered greatly in lost jobs and lost saving. I don’t consider any of them as pathetic or whiney for looking at the ever shifting guidance from the “experts” and arriving at a different opinion. Interestingly I haven’t heard any of them deriding people that have formulated an opinion different from their own.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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You implied that we are losing the fight yet hospitalizations and deaths are way down. The data shows that. Tell me how that is “losing the fight” (your words)

Did it occur to you that some of the people questioning the validity of wearing “homemade bandana masks” might also be people who have made great sacrifice through lost jobs, lost savings, and lost businesses? I know several people that very much question the validity of these homemade masks and who have also suffered greatly in lost jobs and lost saving. I don’t consider any of them as pathetic or whiney for looking at the ever shifting guidance from the “experts” and arriving at a different opinion. Interestingly I haven’t heard any of them deriding people that have formulated an opinion different from their own.
You linked to information about demographic and geographic data. it doesn’t say anything about rates of deaths or hospitalizations.

I’m sticking by my opinion that people who refuse to wear a mask when social distancing is not possible are being weak and are contributing to losing a battle. And just because some people have lost financially due to the pandemic doesn’t mean they are immune to my criticism if they also refuse to wear a mask in public. I’m not criticizing them for losing money, it’s for not being adult enough to make a small sacrifice for the good of all of us. You keep trying to make a link between those two things, but there is none. I stick by my statement. Not wearing a mask when you should is surrender in a winnable fight. Weak and pathetic.

And regarding deriding those with a different opinion, my post was in response to:

The face mask is a symbol of fear and obedience.
I replied in a similar tone: Not wearing a mask is a symbol of weakness and surrender. It’s for people willing to lose. AKA losers.
 

NateB

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That’s horrible. I had no idea. It would seem like work conditions like that would create an environment for some pretty bad errors to occur.
We have the right to go "red" and out of service when we are in a situation where we don't feel like we are capable of using our best judgment or working to our peak performance due to run volume or environmental factors. I've exercised it once in 7 years on a day that was 110 degrees and we had just completed 3 patient flights and 3 PR events, all outside. Even with AC, the ship was over 100 degrees. All 3 of us overheated, dizzy, and completely exhausted.

I didn't have that right when I worked at 24 hour shift on a 911 ambulance, even when I got forced on duty for 4 days straight due to call offs. You are expected to work. Usually we have plenty of downtime, but days we don't get rough. I feel the public would prefer a well rested ambulance crew and firefighters, but tradition is hard to change.

Edit:
We have a professional accreditation board that recommends the ability to go red for rest and safety. Residents have made the same changes. It would be better for all of us if the groups representing other professions do the same. Labor laws fail, either professions can police themselves or face unionization.
 
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Tyeeking

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You linked to information about demographic and geographic data. it doesn’t say anything about rates of deaths or hospitalizations.

I’m sticking by my opinion that people who refuse to wear a mask when social distancing is not possible are being weak and are contributing to losing a battle. And just because some people have lost financially due to the pandemic doesn’t mean they are immune to my criticism if they also refuse to wear a mask in public. I’m not criticizing them for losing money, it’s for not being adult enough to make a small sacrifice for the good of all of us. You keep trying to make a link between those two things, but there is none.
Try scrolling down the link that I posted to Table 1 “Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019, pneumonia and influenza 2/1/20 - 5/23/20” and you will see 5 straight weeks of steep drop to a level not seen since over a month ago. I don’t know how anyone can honestly interpret that as “losing the fight”.

For many people there absolutely is a link between losing their jobs, their savings and/or their businesses and questioning the narrative of the effect of “homemade bandana masks”. They have seen the “experts” be wrong and/or alter their guidance time after time (we only need to flatten the curve for two weeks, we need 30,000 ventilators, our hospitals are going to be overrun, 2.5 million will die, 250,000 will die, don’t ban travel, don’t wear mask, oops do wear masks, it’s easy to catch from surfaces, it’s not so easy to catch from surfaces). They have been harmed financially from all these wrong and ever changing goal posts/guidance/models . . . Big time harmed and are no longer just blindly accepting what the “experts” are telling them.
 

grouch

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I don't have a motive. I was simply presenting my opinion. But since you mentioned not making assumptions, how does one post this
My assumption is based off you saying that you were trying to help me. If indeed that was the case then your motive would be one of assistance. I view it differently. Nothing more. Helping me do something that is not in my benefit is not help. If I am mistaken that you were not trying to help me as your previous post stated then please forgive me.
 

Tyeeking

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CORZERO said:
The face mask is a symbol of fear and obedience.


I replied in a similar tone: Not wearing a mask is a symbol of weakness and surrender. It’s for people willing to lose. AKA losers.
FWIW I disagree with the comment that “the face mask is a symbol of fear and obedience”. I know many people that choose to wear a face mask and I don’t believe that a single one of them does it out of “fear and obedience”. I also don’t believe that people questioning the need for face masks, particularly the homemade variety of dubious quality, are somehow “pathetic and whiney”. Such rhetoric by anyone doesn’t add to any civil discussion.
 

BABAR

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1. No evidence the mask protects the wearer from getting the virus.
That is pretty much agreed upon.
2. Mask does reduce the spread of virus from both symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.
That is strongly suggested by studies, perhaps not definitively proven

There are people who may quite legitimately believe that mask wearing does not completely if at all prevent transmission. But masks are cheap, there are homemade versions that cost next to nothing. The inconvenience for most people is minimal (and I agree that requiring it for a full shift without a break IS unreasonable but I also don’t think any situation including pharmacies cannot accommodate a “mask break” every 2-3 hours. I also agree that there are some people that have respiratory or other real medical mental or psychological conditions where mask wearing is impractical, these however can be accommodated at least in part from increased social distancing for both the benefit of their fellow humans AND their own benefit.)

If the government was requiring people to buy expensive N95 masks and replacement cartridges, yeah, I could easily see people being resentful and considering it a violation of civil liberties. But for MOST people, certainly people who can afford to build rockets and trudge out to the pads to set them up and launch them , mask acquisition and wearing is within their financial and physical capabilities. The U.S. “government” for the most part to my knowledge is not forcing people to do this, or arresting people for NOT doing it.

We absolutely KNOW that virus is spread by asymptotic, pre-symptomatic , as well as symptomatic people. Symptomatic infected people absolutely need to self isolate and their fellow humans should take all measures to assist them financially and practically and emotionally in such self-isolation. I am sure it isn’t easy to be sick AND alone.

For the rest of us, even if it isn’t PROVEN that mask wearing reduces my chance of infecting others, it is cheap, it is not THAT INCONVENIENT, and if there is even the smallest possibility that my wearing a mask may prevent or delay someone from dying from Covid 19, it is a sacrifice I am willing to make.

If your are not, as much as that frustrates me a bit, I still wish you well, and I hope both you and those around you are blessed and suffer no ill effects from this plague on our world.

(But if you DO wear a mask, please wear it right!)
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Try scrolling down the link that I posted to Table 1 “Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019, pneumonia and influenza 2/1/20 - 5/23/20” and you will see 5 straight weeks of steep drop to a level not seen since over a month ago. I don’t know how anyone can honestly interpret that as “losing the fight”.

For many people there absolutely is a link between losing their jobs, their savings and/or their businesses and questioning the narrative of the effect of “homemade bandana masks”. They have seen the “experts” be wrong and/or alter their guidance time after time (we only need to flatten the curve for two weeks, we need 30,000 ventilators, our hospitals are going to be overrun, 2.5 million will die, 250,000 will die, don’t ban travel, don’t wear mask, oops do wear masks, it’s easy to catch from surfaces, it’s not so easy to catch from surfaces). They have been harmed financially from all these wrong and ever changing goal posts/guidance/models . . . Big time harmed and are no longer just blindly accepting what the “experts” are telling them.
That table you referred to is based on incomplete data — death certificates that have been received and processed through whatever procedures CDC is using. It’s at least 5 weeks behind being complete. The reason you see a decline for the last 5 weeks is that the last 5 weeks of data have not been received and processed.

Try switching the “Select Measure” drop-down to “Total deaths” instead of “COVID-19 Deaths”, and you will see a similar decline in deaths from all causes over the last 5 weeks, well below the baseline before the pandemic. If you read the graph the way you are saying, then deaths from ALL CAUSES are now less than one half to one third what they were before the pandemic. Somehow people died at about the same rate for years, then it spiked up for the pandemic and now is dropping well below the baseline and should be at ZERO in a week if you extend the trend lines.

WRONG!

People haven’t miraculously stopped dying from all causes in the last 5 weeks. The data just hasn’t been entered into this particular CDC chart yet. Same for the COVID-19 data. It hasn’t been entered yet. When we have all the data, you will see the rates have dropped in some places with very strict rules. But for most of the country, it’s just barely leveling off, or it’s still going up.

And for some reason you are still trying to mischaracterize what I said about people who refuse to wear masks as an insult to people who are having financial hardship due to the pandemic. That’s a lie, and you should stop.
 

Marc_G

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Try scrolling down the link that I posted to Table 1 “Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019, pneumonia and influenza 2/1/20 - 5/23/20” and you will see 5 straight weeks of steep drop to a level not seen since over a month ago. I don’t know how anyone can honestly interpret that as “losing the fight”.

For many people there absolutely is a link between losing their jobs, their savings and/or their businesses and questioning the narrative of the effect of “homemade bandana masks”. They have seen the “experts” be wrong and/or alter their guidance time after time (we only need to flatten the curve for two weeks, we need 30,000 ventilators, our hospitals are going to be overrun, 2.5 million will die, 250,000 will die, don’t ban travel, don’t wear mask, oops do wear masks, it’s easy to catch from surfaces, it’s not so easy to catch from surfaces). They have been harmed financially from all these wrong and ever changing goal posts/guidance/models . . . Big time harmed and are no longer just blindly accepting what the “experts” are telling them.
I'm with Thirsty on the incorrect analysis of the data; you've misunderstood them. But let me address a different point: In several posts you talked about the economic harms of the lockdown, but what that argument fails to take into consideration is the economic harm that would have happened if we had not shut things down. We would probably over a million dead in the US by now or more just from COVID-19. The health care system would have collapsed in mid April under the strain; lots more people would have died of routine things that would have otherwise been treated. By the time people realized just how screwed up things were there would have been massive civil unrest. In short, the country would have lost its #$%@. Instead of the possibility of a relatively quick rebound like we now are looking at, we would have entered into a very dark period for a good number of years.

I keep saying this in multiple threads across multiple forums, but we came very close to collapse due to the geometric progression of the disease. We nipped it in time, barely. We need to prepare to do it again if it starts surging. Hopefully with improved testing accessibility we can avoid widespread shelter in place orders and do regional efforts as needed, but we have to do EVERYTHING that can help. Masks, social distancing, contact tracing, the works.
 

Tyeeking

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That table you referred to is based on incomplete data — death certificates that have been received and processed through whatever procedures CDC is using. It’s at least 5 weeks behind being complete. The reason you see a decline for the last 5 weeks is that the last 5 weeks of data have not been received and processed.

Try switching the “Select Measure” drop-down to “Total deaths” instead of “COVID-19 Deaths”, and you will see a similar decline in deaths from all causes over the last 5 weeks, well below the baseline before the pandemic. If you read the graph the way you are saying, then deaths from ALL CAUSES are now less than one half to one third what they were before the pandemic. Somehow people died at about the same rate for years, then it spiked up for the pandemic and now is dropping well below the baseline and should be at ZERO in a week if you extend the trend lines.

WRONG!

People haven’t miraculously stopped dying from all causes in the last 5 weeks. The data just hasn’t been entered into this particular CDC chart yet. Same for the COVID-19 data. It hasn’t been entered yet. When we have all the data, you will see the rates have dropped in some places with very strict rules. But for most of the country, it’s just barely leveling off, or it’s still going up.

And for some reason you are still trying to mischaracterize what I said about people who refuse to wear masks as an insult to people who are having financial hardship due to the pandemic. That’s a lie, and you should stop.
That table you referred to is based on incomplete data — death certificates that have been received and processed through whatever procedures CDC is using. It’s at least 5 weeks behind being complete. The reason you see a decline for the last 5 weeks is that the last 5 weeks of data have not been received and processed.
You make up a lot of crap. Nowhere does the site say there is a 5-week delay in getting the data. You literally are making that up in order to hang on to your point that we are some how losing the battle. In point of fact the notes say that it takes an average of 7-days to get the complete data not 5-weeks as you falsely claim

I posted data from a government agency showing a steep sustained drop in COVID-19 deaths. You dispute the data. Let’s see your data showing otherwise.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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You make up a lot of crap. Nowhere does the site say there is a 5-week delay in getting the data. You literally are making that up in order to hang on to your point that we are some how losing the battle. In point of fact the notes say that it takes an average of 7-days to get the complete data not 5-weeks as you falsely claim

I posted data from a government agency showing a steep sustained drop in COVID-19 deaths. You dispute the data. Let’s see your data showing otherwise.
It is lagged by weeks.

”It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.”

When the data are received, the counts will be updated for the recent weeks, and it will show no significant decrease in rates that you are talking about. Did you try what I suggested and switch the graph to All Deaths instead of COVID-19? How else would you explain the miracle of all deaths from all causes dropping so low below the baseline in recent weeks? It’s because the data hasn’t come in yet.

D4BBE348-34A4-4BD8-9E20-15DDD10B453C.png

That dip in total deaths at the right is not real. It’s missing data. Same for the COVID-19 graph.

B355F30D-A5EF-40BC-9FA1-6E196FA85344.png

It makes it look there were fewer than 1,000 deaths from COVID for the week ending 5/23. That’s wrong. It’s missing data, and it’s going to be revised upward as the data comes in. Check it again in a day or two when it’s updated and compare it to that screenshot I posted.
 

Tyeeking

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It is lagged by weeks.

”It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.”

When the data are received, the counts will be updated for the recent weeks, and it will show no significant decrease in rates that you are talking about. Did you try what I suggested and switch the graph to All Deaths instead of COVID-19? How else would you explain the miracle of all deaths from all causes dropping so low below the baseline in recent weeks? It’s because the data hasn’t come in yet.

View attachment 419014
That dip in total deaths at the right is not real. It’s missing data. Same for the COVID-19 graph.

View attachment 419015
It makes it look there were fewer than 1,000 deaths from COVID for the week ending 5/23. That’s wrong. It’s missing data, and it’s going to be revised upward as the data comes in. Check it again in a day or two when it’s updated and compare it to that screenshot I posted.
The graph for all deaths is delayed for several weeks. That disclosure is clear for that particular set of data but that disclosure does not apply to the COVID-19 graph as it has its own disclosure which says “While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person, which takes an average of 7-days”. As one would expect COVID-19 deaths are receiving a priority for processing. While the latest week shown may be inaccurate because of the 7-day average processing time the rest isn’t and the trend line is clear namely we are not losing the fight as you originally claimed.

Here’s data from John Hopkins that shows the exact same trend line for new infections namely steeply dropping for the same period despite increased testing. Have fun trying to pick that one apart too.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

So where is your data for your claim that we are “losing the fight”. I asked once but haven’t seen it.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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The graph for all deaths is delayed for several weeks. That disclosure is clear for that particular set of data but that disclosure does not apply to the COVID-19 graph as it has its own disclosure which says “While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person, which takes an average of 7-days”. As one would expect COVID-19 deaths are receiving a priority for processing. While the latest week shown may be inaccurate because of the 7-day average processing time the rest isn’t and the trend line is clear namely we are not losing the fight as you originally claimed.

Here’s data from John Hopkins that shows the exact same trend line for new infections namely steeply dropping for the same period despite increased testing. Have fun trying to pick that one apart too.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

So where is your data for your claim that we are “losing the fight”. I asked once but haven’t seen it.
Check it in a week. It will have changed, including totals for five or 6 weeks ago.

The sentence you quoted means that the COVID data is MORE delayed, not less delayed. Other data is processed electronically in minutes, while the COVID data is processed by hand, and it takes 7 days on average. Seven days is longer than within minutes, not shorter. So the 7 days of hand processing is an added delay on top of the other delays. That 7 days starts AFTER the NCHS receives the data from the states, and that’s where the lag time of up to several weeks or even months can occur. The bottom of the page lists the caveats and describes some of the reason for delays and the differences in how states report. But I don’t think I’m going to convince you, so just wait a week or two, check back, and you will see. It says “Counts will be updated every Wednesday by 5pm.” Maybe set a reminder for yourself.
 

Tyeeking

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Check it in a week. It will have changed, including totals for five or 6 weeks ago.

The sentence you quoted means that the COVID data is MORE delayed, not less delayed. Other data is processed electronically in minutes, while the COVID data is processed by hand, and it takes 7 days on average. Seven days is longer than within minutes, not shorter. So the 7 days of hand processing is an added delay on top of the other delays. That 7 days starts AFTER the NCHS receives the data from the states, and that’s where the lag time of up to several weeks or even months can occur. The bottom of the page lists the caveats and describes some of the reason for delays and the differences in how states report. But I don’t think I’m going to convince you, so just wait a week or two, check back, and you will see. It says “Counts will be updated every Wednesday by 5pm.” Maybe set a reminder for yourself.
Where’s your data supporting your claim that we are “losing the battle”. Still crickets.

Question. If we are “losing the battle” as you claimed and the John Hopkins data showing declining infections is wrong and the CDC data of declining deaths is inaccurate why have all of the temporary hospitals been dismantled, and why were the hospital ships returned to their home ports, and why were those ventilators that we built not used? At this point in our conversation I understand that those are entirely rhetorical questions.

All I’ve asked is for your to support your claim but . . .
 

Marc_G

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Let me sketch out a few things that may help. First let's talk about deaths and reporting. Today (6/2) Indiana reported 46 COVID-19 deaths and I believe 9 additional probably covid deaths. Data source is coronavirus.in.gov. However, those deaths didn't happen today, or mostly even yesterday:
1591114942979.png

See how they are spread over the last month or so? This is because the data chain between the hospital or other facility where the death happened, and the county coroner, and eventually the state metrics aggregation site, is far from instantaneous. About half get recorded within a day or two, the rest trickle in over time. Most states are like this. So, when looking at metrics particularly for deaths, you have to assume the last several weeks is incomplete. The data will continue to fill in over time. Particularly days that are weekends since most offices are unstaffed so you will see a periodicity with low weekend numbers, particularly for cases that tend not to be reallocated to past dates. Some states report cases more or less on time on the weekends, some re-allocate after the fact, and some don't and have persistent low case numbers on the weekends. Also few people actually get tested on the weekends anyway.

So all this rolls up into whichever aggregator of data you like. I prefer worldometers. Let's look at cases over time:

1591117629226.png


It's important to understand we didn't have adequate testing capability through much of March. By mid April testing availability was if not perfect, at least adequate. Still, a clear picture of the disease "bloom" emerges. It was very bad in April with on the order of 25-30k new cases per day and has since maintained 20+k new cases per day. A case today is on average less severe than a case two months ago, (very important point), because more people are being tested. So, on average, people with lighter symptoms are more likely to be tested today than a few months ago. This is borne out by the death rate:

1591117877251.png


Now, we know that the last two weeks are significantly incomplete for deaths. If we come back in a couple weeks, the bars of those days will be higher than they look today. But even today, the past week looks about the same as the week before it, and that one is only a little lower than the few weeks you see before it.

That's why via these analytics we are losing the fight: We locked the economy down to an unprecedented extent, kept the kids home from school (likely a big factor), started wearing masks to greater or lesser extent, and despite all this, still are testing 20k+ individuals every day positive. It's known from data in Indiana that at least here, for every diagnosed case, there are ~10 more untested/undiagnosed about half of which are asymptomatic and spreading with no knowledge they may be contagious.

The death rate is down in part because we are seeing more less sick people getting tested, our treatments have improved a bit (proning, for example), and frankly a lot of the elderly in nursing homes are already dead, with stricter measures protecting those not affected.

We haven't had time for an upsurge to show statistically from the re-opening of the economy. But as businesses open, people congregate in restaurants, some camps open up (foolhardy!!), we may well see a spike. Remember that "Lake of the Ozarks" pool party, packed and jammed, and now we know there was a likely-infectious person there. But we might not, which is even more dangerous: the "Summer effect" will likely apply: respiratory viruses don't do as well in the summer for a variety of reasons. Think of it as brakes dragging on the acceleration. Then with things seeming stable, the kids go back to school in August/September, the weather cools and summer effect stops, and BAM we get a huge spike. This happens. We should expect it.

To win we need to get the replication factor, R, down sustainably below 1. We haven't done that, despite unprecedented measures. Play with the simulators here:


The reason we are opening up is that we can't wait this thing out. We now know the extent of the viral spread through the population reasonably well, and we understand how X number of infections translates into Y number of cases and Z number of deaths, while consuming ... (I planned poorly) H percent of hospital resources. There's a reason why states publish this data, most of them at least:

1591118743634.png

We are using in IN about 14% of our available ICU space and we have about three times that much space before we have to decide weather to let grandma or junior die in the street.

Given uncontrolled R0 (R at the start) was doubling in 2-3 days, what seems like plenty of room actually isn't that much. It's less than a week at the original spread rate before enough infections happen to eventually swamp the system. It takes time to see the effects, so Governors are keeping a close eye on these things. If they delay too long, they risk being swamped. It's sort of like Lunar Lander where you can't retrothrust too early (you use up your fuel... the economy in this analogy) or too late (it becomes too late to brake in time).

So, as of today, we are definitely not winning the fight. It's a judgement call on whether or not we are losing it, but we haven't done enough yet to guarantee the win.
 

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Tyeeking

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Let me sketch out a few things that may help. First let's talk about deaths and reporting. Today (6/2) Indiana reported 46 COVID-19 deaths and I believe 9 additional probably covid deaths. Data source is coronavirus.in.gov. However, those deaths didn't happen today, or mostly even yesterday:
View attachment 419081
See how they are spread over the last month or so? This is because the data chain between the hospital or other facility where the death happened, and the county coroner, and eventually the state metrics aggregation site, is far from instantaneous. About half get recorded within a day or two, the rest trickle in over time. Most states are like this. So, when looking at metrics particularly for deaths, you have to assume the last several weeks is incomplete. The data will continue to fill in over time. Particularly days that are weekends since most offices are unstaffed so you will see a periodicity with low weekend numbers, particularly for cases that tend not to be reallocated to past dates. Some states report cases more or less on time on the weekends, some re-allocate after the fact, and some don't and have persistent low case numbers on the weekends. Also few people actually get tested on the weekends anyway.

So all this rolls up into whichever aggregator of data you like. I prefer worldometers. Let's look at cases over time:

View attachment 419083

It's important to understand we didn't have adequate testing capability through much of March. By mid April testing availability was if not perfect, at least adequate. Still, a clear picture of the disease "bloom" emerges. It was very bad in April with on the order of 25-30k new cases per day and has since maintained 20+k new cases per day. A case today is on average less severe than a case two months ago, (very important point), because more people are being tested. So, on average, people with lighter symptoms are more likely to be tested today than a few months ago. This is borne out by the death rate:

View attachment 419084

Now, we know that the last two weeks are significantly incomplete for deaths. If we come back in a couple weeks, the bars of those days will be higher than they look today. But even today, the past week looks about the same as the week before it, and that one is only a little lower than the few weeks you see before it.

That's why via these analytics we are losing the fight: We locked the economy down to an unprecedented extent, kept the kids home from school (likely a big factor), started wearing masks to greater or lesser extent, and despite all this, still are testing 20k+ individuals every day positive. It's known from data in Indiana that at least here, for every diagnosed case, there are ~10 more untested/undiagnosed about half of which are asymptomatic and spreading with no knowledge they may be contagious.

The death rate is down in part because we are seeing more less sick people getting tested, our treatments have improved a bit (proning, for example), and frankly a lot of the elderly in nursing homes are already dead, with stricter measures protecting those not affected.

We haven't had time for an upsurge to show statistically from the re-opening of the economy. But as businesses open, people congregate in restaurants, some camps open up (foolhardy!!), we may well see a spike. Remember that "Lake of the Ozarks" pool party, packed and jammed, and now we know there was a likely-infectious person there. But we might not, which is even more dangerous: the "Summer effect" will likely apply: respiratory viruses don't do as well in the summer for a variety of reasons. Think of it as brakes dragging on the acceleration. Then with things seeming stable, the kids go back to school in August/September, the weather cools and summer effect stops, and BAM we get a huge spike. This happens. We should expect it.

To win we need to get the replication factor, R, down sustainably below 1. We haven't done that, despite unprecedented measures. Play with the simulators here:


The reason we are opening up is that we can't wait this thing out. We now know the extent of the viral spread through the population reasonably well, and we understand how X number of infections translates into Y number of cases and Z number of deaths, while consuming ... (I planned poorly) H percent of hospital resources. There's a reason why states publish this data, most of them at least:

View attachment 419086
We are using in IN about 14% of our available ICU space and we have about three times that much space before we have to decide weather to let grandma or junior die in the street.

Given uncontrolled R0 (R at the start) was doubling in 2-3 days, what seems like plenty of room actually isn't that much. It's less than a week at the original spread rate before enough infections happen to eventually swamp the system. It takes time to see the effects, so Governors are keeping a close eye on these things. If they delay too long, they risk being swamped. It's sort of like Lunar Lander where you can't retrothrust too early (you use up your fuel... the economy in this analogy) or too late (it becomes too late to brake in time).

So, as of today, we are definitely not winning the fight. It's a judgement call on whether or not we are losing it, but we haven't done enough yet to guarantee the win.
Interesting stuff from one state and I will give you credit for acknowledging that both the number of cases and the number of deaths is on the decline which for me and I suspect many others is indeed winning the battle (certainly not losing the battle). While obviously data gets more reliable over time the trend line is quite clear. Why infections and deaths are in decline even with more testing is of course a matter of conjecture that will be sorted out over time. Because A happened at a time when B happened does not mean that A caused B. It may well be that like many viruses this one is simply “running its course” (note I am not saying that is the case but rather one possible component to the declines).
 

Marc_G

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Interesting stuff from one state and I will give you credit for acknowledging that both the number of cases and the number of deaths is on the decline which for me and I suspect many others is indeed winning the battle (certainly not losing the battle). While obviously data gets more reliable over time the trend line is quite clear. Why infections and deaths are in decline even with more testing is of course a matter of conjecture that will be sorted out over time. Because A happened at a time when B happened does not mean that A caused B. It may well be that like many viruses this one is simply “running its course” (note I am not saying that is the case but rather one possible component to the declines).
Just a quick thought: deaths are on the decline for sure. Cases are not. Review the US chart. Stable week per week for a month based on lockdown scenario. Now that we are opening up, what do you think will happen to it?

Time will tell. Meanwhile stay safe 😀
 

Tyeeking

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Now that we are opening up, what do you think will happen to it?

Time will tell. Meanwhile stay safe 😀
I think that it is very hard to tell because there is still so much unknown about this particular coronavirus. With that said I suspect that there will be modest increases in infections here and there but overall I suspect that the US will look like much of the world that has been “reopening” and that will be the continuation of an overall decline in deaths (which really is the proverbial bottom line).

Obviously a people and an economy cannot remain locked down indefinitely so at some point we must face what comes. The longer we wait the more economic and social difficulty we add on top of whatever the virus may or may not hold for us.

No doubt we all have different perspectives based on our own personal experiences. My perspective is from living in a county of 525,000 that includes the second largest city in the state and an international airport, that has had few cases and very few deaths from the virus but has economically suffered a terrible blow. The worst I have seen in 35 years of living here.

I can completely understand how someone with a vastly different experience may have a different opinion. That is why one size fits all solutions are so frustrating.
 

Speaknoevil

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Another mask data point. And to think that early on in the U.S. the medical "powers that be" were telling us wearing masks would make our chances of getting COVID worse--complete politically and economically motivated bozos!

 

Winston

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I see so many comments in various places on-line that simple cloth face masks, DIY or otherwise, or anything other than N95 or N100 face masks are not of much use because they can't filter out viruses. However, its the airborne droplets which can come from just speaking, no coughing required, that have been found to be an important infection route and any kind of mask can stop or greatly reduce the emission of them by infected persons and the inhalation of them by the uninfected.

This has been intuitively obvious all along. Gosh, whoda' thunk that a respiratory virus' most effective route for transmission would be via the air...

JUNE 12, 2020
Face masks critical in preventing spread of COVID-19
by Texas A&M University


"Our study establishes very clearly that using a face mask is not only useful to prevent infected coughing droplets from reaching uninfected persons, but is also crucial for these uninfected persons to avoid breathing the minute atmospheric particles (aerosols) that infected people emit when talking and that can remain in the atmosphere tens of minutes and can travel tens of feet," Molina said. [six feet social distancing is better than nothing and even that distance presents major problems for many businesses; "tens of feet" would be completely impractical - W]

Zhang said that many people in China have worn face masks for years, mainly because of the bad air quality of the country.

"So people there are sort of used to this," he said. "Mandated face-covering helped China in containing the COVID-19 outbreak."

Zhang said the results should send a clear message to people worldwide—wearing a face mask is essential in fighting the virus.

"Our work suggests that the failure in containing the propagation of COVID-19 pandemic worldwide is largely attributed to the unrecognized importance of airborne virus transmission," he said. "Social-distancing and washing our hands must continue, but that's not sufficient enough protection. Wearing a face mask as well as practicing good hand hygiene and social distancing will greatly reduce the chances of anyone contracting the COVID-19 virus."


Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
16 May 2020


Excerpt:

Previous experimental and observational studies on interhuman transmission have indicated a significant role of aerosols in the transmission of many respiratory viruses, including influenza virus, SARS-CoV-1, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) (8–11). For example, airborne coronavirus MERS-CoV exhibited strong capability of surviving, with about 64% of microorganisms remaining infectious 60 min after atomization at 25 °C and 79% relative humidity (RH) (9). On the other hand, rapid virus decay occurred, with only 5% survival over a 60-min procedure at 38 °C and 24% RH, indicative of inactivation. Recent experimental studies have examined the stability of SARS-CoV-2, showing that the virus remains infectious in aerosols for hours (12) and on surfaces up to days (12, 13).

Several parameters likely influence the microorganism survival and delivery in air, including temperature, humidity, microbial resistance to external physical and biological stresses, and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation (7). Transmission and infectivity of airborne viruses are also dependent on the size and number concentration of inhaled aerosols, which regulate the amount (dose) and pattern for respiratory deposition. With typical nasal breathing (i.e., at a velocity of ∼1 m·s^−1 ) (4), inhalation of airborne viruses leads to direct and continuous deposition into the human respiratory tract. In particular, fine aerosols (i.e., particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm, or PM2.5) penetrate deeply into the respiratory tract and even reach other vital organs (14, 15). In addition, viral shedding is dependent on the stages of infection and varies between symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. A recent finding (16) showed that the highest viral load in the upper respiratory tract occurs at the symptom onset, suggesting the peak of infectiousness on or before the symptom onset and substantial asymptomatic transmission for SARS-CoV-2.


-------------

JUNE 12, 2020
Up to 45 percent of SARS-CoV-2 infections may be asymptomatic
by The Scripps Research Institute


Together with behavioral scientist Daniel Oran, Topol collected information from testing studies on 16 diverse cohorts from around the world. These datasets—gathered via keyword searches of PubMed, bioRxiv and medRxiv, as well as Google searches of relevant news reports—included data on nursing home residents, cruise ship passengers, prison inmates and various other groups.

"What virtually all of them had in common was that a very large proportion of infected individuals had no symptoms," says Oran. "Among more than 3,000 prison inmates in four states who tested positive for the coronavirus, the figure was astronomical: 96 percent asymptomatic."

The review further suggests that asymptomatic individuals are able to transmit the virus for an extended period of time, perhaps longer than 14 days. The viral loads are very similar in people with or without symptoms, but it remains unclear whether their infectiousness is of the same magnitude. To resolve that issue, we'll need large-scale studies that include sufficient numbers of asymptomatic people.


What IS fairly well established at this point is that PRE-symptomatic people, people who will not remain asymptomatic, can spread the virus. This is not surprising since it's the same for the common flu.
 

BABAR

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It says a lot about PEOPLE. If wearing the mask protected the wearER, you can bet most people would be wearing them. But since the purpose is to protect others, it is sad to see so many just go, "Meh, the heck with it." And either wear it wrong or skip it entirely.
 

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Well, Babar, to add to your comment, I'm constantly amazed at how many will follow (or break) rules despite not understanding them. And, that these rules apply only to the situation for which they were written, never are they use to better themselves, or used a guide to change their overall behaviors. (Remember, rules are created because someone either doesn't think, doesn't care, or will blindly take advantage of..)
 

Mike Haberer

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This mask wearing garbage is all misinformation. Check out this from the New England Journal of Medicine, posted May 21 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

"...We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic..."

Also, while even one death from this thing is tragic, lets not blow this out of proportion any more. Check out these statistics from 2018 the source is World Magazine:

CAUSES OF DEATH BEFORE COVID-19.
599,274 the number of deaths from cancer in 2018, the 2nd leading cause of death during that year. same as 2017.
167,127 deaths from unintentional injuries in 2018, the 3rd leading cause of death
159,486 deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases in 2018: emphysema, asthma, and pulmonary hypertension.
147,810 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases (or strokes) in 2018
655,381 The number of Americans who died from heart disease in 2018, leading cause of death for both men and women:
smokers, those over 55, family history
59,120 influenze and pneumonia, most like C-19
48,344 in 2018, up from 47,173 in 2017: suicide.

Total deaths in 2018 (I believe this is all in America but it really doesn’t say that): 1,836,542

Bottom line: people are dying every day, every year. How many is that per state? So we stop the world I want to get
off because of the C-19 virus. Government overreach is a really scary thing.


Go ahead, let the flaming begin, I don't really care. People have made up their minds to panic and over-react to this corona virus and don't want to be confused by the facts.
Wearing a mask does not protect you, it protects others from YOU if YOU are infected. This virus can be transmitted by people who have no symptoms and is most contagious in the 2-3 days before someone displays symptoms, if they do eventually. That means if an asymptomatic carrier wears a mask, they have a lower chance of transmitting it to others. It's about protecting your fellow human beings, not yourself. If you are so callous that you will not wear a mask, then I submit you actually are not a human being. Get over yourselves.
 
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Winston

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It says a lot about PEOPLE. If wearing the mask protected the wearER, you can bet most people would be wearing them. But since the purpose is to protect others, it is sad to see so many just go, "Meh, the heck with it." And either wear it wrong or skip it entirely.
Even those wearing it wrong, usually not covering their nose from what I've seen, are doing better than those not wearing one at all since covering the mouth alone greatly reduces the droplet spread. And the entire point of widespread mask wearing should be to get back to something resembling the norm prior to COVID-19 and thereby helping to avoid the further destruction of our economy.
 
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Winston

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Two Missouri hairstylists who had coronavirus saw 140 clients. Officials are studying how no one got infected


No cases of coronavirus have been linked to two Missouri hairstylists who saw 140 clients last month while symptomatic, county health officials said.

Both stylists worked at the same Great Clips location in Springfield. The clients and the stylists all wore face coverings, and the salon had set up other measures such as social distancing of chairs and staggered appointments, the Springfield-Greene County Health Department said this week.

Of the 140 clients and seven co-workers potentially exposed, 46 took tests that came back negative. All the others were quarantined for the duration of the coronavirus incubation period. The 14-day incubation period has now passed with no coronavirus cases linked to the salon beyond the two stylists, county health officials said.

During the quarantine, those who did not get tested got a call twice a day from health officials asking whether they had symptoms related to Covid-19, said Kathryn Wall, a spokeswoman for the Springfield-Green County Health Department.

“This is exciting news about the value of masking to prevent Covid-19,” said Clay Goddard, the county’s director of health.

[snip]

This month, a study published in the Lancet medical journal found people should stay six feet apart and wear face coverings. It said the chance of transmission without a face mask was 17.4%, while that fell to 3.1% when a mask was worn. The World Health Organization has urged nations to encourage the general public to wear fabric masks in areas where coronavirus is spreading.


Outrage! Why The US Gov't Lied To Us About Masks
 

Winston

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THIS is the only figure that counts: the death rate for those who show symptoms and NOT deaths divided by everyone determined to be infected.

COVID-19: Study reports 'staggering' death rate in U.S. among those infected who show symptoms - May 18, 2020


Source: University of Washington

Summary: A new study finds the national U.S. rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3 percent, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

---------

And how infectious?

MAY 8, 2020
Uncovering the potency and evasiveness of the COVID-19 virus


SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is highly infectious. Curiously, in many patients, it triggers poor immune responses, which prolongs illness.

[snip]

Specifically, the team of scientists investigated how the virus "unlocks" human cells using a surface spike protein as the "key." They made three important findings:

- the tip of the viral key binds strongly to human cells;

- the tip of the viral key is often hidden; and

- when new virus particles are made, the viral key is already pre-activated by a human enzyme.

"Typically when a virus develops mechanisms to evade immune responses, it loses its potency to infect people," said Li. "However, SARS-CoV-2 maintains its infectivity using two mechanisms. First, during its limited exposure time, the tip of the viral key grabs a receptor protein on human cells quickly and firmly. Second, the pre-activation of the viral key allows the virus to more effectively infect human cells."


---------

And how much more deadly for those 65 and over than the common flu?

A 0.6% death rate among 65 and older who were flu vaccinated (since a 41% effective last season vaccine mix exists whereas one doesn't exist for COVID-19 and may never exist) versus:

COVID-19 in adults 65–84

Hospitalization: 31-59%
ICU: 11-31%
Deaths: 4-11%

---------

Covid-19 can damage lungs of victims beyond recognition, expert says
Organs of some who die after over a month in hospital sustain ‘complete disruption’, peers told
15 Jun 2020


“What you find in the lungs of people who have stayed with the disease for more than a month before dying is something completely different from normal pneumonia, influenza or the SARS virus,” he said. “You see massive thrombosis. There is a complete disruption of the lung architecture – in some lights you can’t even distinguish that it used to be a lung."
 

gldknght

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Where I work, we are required to wear masks for our entire shift, except when on break. When we take breaks, we sit across tables from each other, not following the 6 foot separation rule and also not wearing masks. Despite this, there have been NO NEW CASES of covid for several weeks. Go figure!! Actually, as far as I know, we have had only 1 or 2 confirmed employees test positive since this thing began. Also, most of the people I eat with, or work with directly claim they only wear the masks at work and only because we are forced to.

So you people who want to resort to name calling of those who disagree with you can BLOW IT OUT YOUR EARS!!!!
 
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