Let's discuss our feelings on discontinuing public masking

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kuririn

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That is an increase of 382,382 deaths (CDC numbers). Which is more than the reported number of CV deaths.
Per CDC, the number of Covid deaths in 2020 was about 375,000.
Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2020 | MMWR (cdc.gov)
And keep in mind that while the number for actual deaths from all causes is firm, the number for expected deaths is an extrapolation from previous years adjusting for different parameters such as increase in population, etc.
I'm not a statistician, but 382,000 excess deaths vs 375,000 actual Covid deaths is very close, wouldn't you say?
It's within 1.9% of actual. I'd say that's pretty damn good for a model.
 

kuririn

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Jerry, forgot to mention that perhaps the expected deaths did not factor in unexpected events like markedly reduced flu cases in 2020 (and presumably deaths) due to public health measures as well as reduced driving by the public because of the lockdowns and quarantines earlier in the year (and presumably less traffic accidents and fatalities). I'm sure there are many other variables that I haven't mentioned or thought of as well that could skew the number a little up or down.
EDIT: I checked the numbers. While vehicle miles travelled in 2020 was down by 13% from 2019, traffic fatalities actually increased by 8%. Go figure.
As for the flu the numbers are even more astounding. The CDC gives a range rather than an absolute number. For the 2019-2020 season there were 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths. For the 2020-2021 flu season there were 646. Amazing.
 
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boatgeek

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While vehicle miles travelled in 2020 was down by 13% from 2019, traffic fatalities actually increased by 8%. Go figure.
For quite a while out here, a lot of people drove 20 or more over the speed limit because there was hardly any traffic. I could see that resulting in more traffic fatalities and fewer miles traveled.
 

boatgeek

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No, the number of people dying is never one to one. In the case of 2020, the number of "excess death" out paced the number of CV deaths. Why the discrepancy?. It likely has more to do with the reporting than the actual cause. United States reported 3,442,940 deaths of all ages for 2020. Expected deaths were 3,060,558. That is an increase of 382,382 deaths (CDC numbers). Which is more than the reported number of CV deaths. There are a ton of reasons why that number is different...clearly some of it is simply due to people not seeking treatment for preventable illnesses and then dying from it. The idea that is only due to an undercount of the CV is ludicrous. So two answer two questions. First, No, I don't have "actual" data to support my thesis, I use the same CDC data to support my thesis as everyone else does. The second question the answer is "No" my thoughts about masks have not changed. I was never anxious about mask and rarely wore one unless absolutely necessary (read that as "forced.").
Perhaps I’m just dense. Your contention that I challenged was that people marked down as dying of COVID would have died of other causes. If that’s true, presumably deaths from other causes would be down because they were shifted into the COVID column from wherever they would have been otherwise. I presented data that deaths from other causes were flat or increased, and now you’re patting me on the head and telling me that math is hard?

So you say that the charts previously presented show that people marked down as dying from COVID would have died from another cause. Walk me through that with the data presented. How did you come to that conclusion for heart disease and cancer? I eagerly await your explanation.
 
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MidOH

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Nearly zero regular flu deaths this year in my county. What more evidence do you need?

Accurate counting. Is not a major skill required, in the medical industry. And it's no secret that death by Covid pays our hospital better. They were rocked by the loss of elective procedures.
 

kuririn

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What more evidence do you need?
In order for anyone to believe massive fraud by nearly everyone involved in the reporting methodology (all 50 states and the CDC, not just one hospital) I would need to see solid evidence, not just supposition. We are talking about collusion by thousands of medical professionals. I'm not that cynical. I believe that the vast majority of medical personnel do the right thing and diagnose accurately and report truthfully. In the absence of any major changes in methodology, one can only conclude that the only change between last flu season and the current one is the implementation of public health measures due to the pandemic, and that is responsible for the amazing drop in flu cases. Prove me wrong.
 

Bravo52

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A little bit of cynicism is always good. I don't think the issue is with fraudulent reporting (although some fraudulent cases were reported over time.) The cynicism is warranted in the manipulation of data for some gain. So it would be inaccurate to "only conclude" that the flu numbers were due to mask wearing and social distancing... of six feet...errr... no, 3 feet....ummm... I mean if you have had one shot, but not the second and it is not the 4th of July.
 

kuririn

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But manipulation of data is fraud Jerry. And it would have to be manipulation of a widescale nature.
Sorry, not convinced.
BTW, what perceived gain do you see from this manipulation?
 

Bravo52

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But manipulation of data is fraud Jerry. And it would have to be manipulation of a widescale nature.
Sorry, not convinced.
BTW, what perceived gain do you see from this manipulation?
Happens everyday in national reporting to influence the discussion. Perceived gain? Any use of the reported data (good or bad) to establish unwarranted power.
 

kuririn

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I wouldn't risk losing my job or going to jail just to "influence the discussion".
And what kind of unwarranted power is gained? Bragging rights?
Can you be more specific?
 

boatgeek

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What data was manipulated and what was changed? What do you think the original interpretation should have been and what interpretation came from the manipulated data?
 

NateB

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I'm not willing to manipulate data I turn in. I report what we see, what we did and why, and the outcome. If we suspect xxxx disease process or injuries, we report that to the doctor, nothing more or less. People do use our data for statistics and research and I trust they report it factually as well. There is no reason or incentive to do otherwise.

As for the past 18 months, flu cases I have seen are down from normal, Covid cases were obviously high at one point and much less now. Interestingly, traumas are up, including fatalities. Traumas are somewhat seasonal, trauma cases are up about 30% from previous averages for this time of the year.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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Interestingly, traumas are up, including fatalities. Traumas are somewhat seasonal, trauma cases are up about 30% from previous averages for this time of the year.
I feel like some people have kind of forgotten how to drive. I know when I was only going to the store once every 3 weeks, I felt a bit awkward behind the wheel. I wonder if people are crashing their cars more often.

Another thing I noticed during the pandemic was many people took up outdoor sporting activities like biking, hiking, climbing, etc. because they couldn’t go to the gym and they missed being around people. They considered these alternatives safe for exercise, socializing, and staying sane. Maybe there are more people falling off bikes than before.
 

Bravo52

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"I wouldn't risk losing my job or going to jail just to "influence the discussion".
And what kind of unwarranted power is gained? Bragging rights?
Can you be more specific?"

I'm not suggesting that medical/social folks are purposefully (or even intentionally, aside from rare cases noted) turning in bad data. I'm saying the socio-political manipulation of provided information/data for a social/political gain is occurring, everyday. One early-on example is NY's disregard for what the medical community was saying that resulted in additional CV deaths in nursing homes. Another is the results of the CV situation in Florida currently.
 

Marc_G

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I'm curious... What's going on in Florida with respect to Covid? I must not be paying attention. All I've noticed recently is the Governor signed something limiting cruise lines ability to require vaccinations. Seems like he is trying to gut the industry or something
 

Bill S

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"And what kind of unwarranted power is gained? Bragging rights?
Can you be more specific?"

I'm not suggesting that medical/social folks are purposefully (or even intentionally, aside from rare cases noted) turning in bad data. I'm saying the socio-political manipulation of provided information/data for a social/political gain is occurring, everyday. One early-on example is NY's disregard for what the medical community was saying that resulted in additional CV deaths in nursing homes. Another is the results of the CV situation in Florida currently.
Scared people are far more willing to surrender some of their rights in exchange for perceived safety. Got to keep them scared and on edge, then either come in with another .govt sponsored solution, or just stomp on their rights (like the governor did here in PA and the courts for political reasons let him do what he wanted despite some of it being clearly unlawful) and increase the power of the .govt (in PA's case, the governor loves power more than about anything else)... Its a classic recipe for gaining power, used by tyrants all through history.
 

Bravo52

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I'm curious... What's going on in Florida with respect to Covid? I must not be paying attention. All I've noticed recently is the Governor signed something limiting cruise lines ability to require vaccinations. Seems like he is trying to gut the industry or something
All of that plus Rebekah Jones...
 

rfjustin

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My nearly 4 year old daughter brought Covid home from daycare last November. Fast forward 7 months, wife and I are both now fully vaccinated and pleased to be. Modera injection 2 knocked me down for 16 hours, back to normal by the next day. Now that we are fully vaccinated, back to living our best lives. Pleased to be in position where wearing the mask now is simply not necessary...
 

kuririn

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One early-on example is NY's disregard for what the medical community was saying that resulted in additional CV deaths in nursing homes. Another is the results of the CV situation in Florida currently.
Ok. I see. You're talking about data manipulation by an administration.
Agree that can happen. We saw the previous fed administration try it with the FDA and CDC. Heavy pressure to change reporting that was detrimental to them. Even personnel getting fired and replaced.
Problem is, when people get wind of it then it bites the manipulators in the rear end and becomes self defeating.
Witness the results of the last election.
Still don't get why anyone would manipulate flu numbers so low though.
If I was manipulating that I would not want anything to stick out like a red flag. I would do it covertly.
So I'm tending to believe that the number must be right.
 

kuririn

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Getting back on topic, happy to be outdoors launching with fellow rocketeers MASKLESS, vaccinated and socially distanced. Only time I wear a mask now is if it's required or indoors with strangers.
Really ready to move on and leave this Covid cr** behind.

That’s kind of how I feel, but I prefer to use 10,000 words to say it.
Best post of this thread.
 

Flyfalcons

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Although I have had Covid and have completed the second vaccine shot at the end of March, I have started masking again, indoors, in shops and public areas. I don't need to mask, but I feel we all need to encourage masking for now. With the Delta variant coming on strong, I think we need to encourage masking in general. Would be nice if all unvaccinated folks did that as well, to help prevent them spreading this more contagious variant.

Here in North Texas, masking is still running about 50% or so indoors, in public.
No thank you
 

tOD

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That’s kind of how I feel, but I prefer to use 10,000 words to say it.
Plus, you can't beat the price. I was billed in error for rabies vaccine a couple of years ago, it's $635/dose (four required after the initial doses) not counting the cost for administration.
 

tab28682

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And masking is coming back strong.

I’m doing it to help keep other people safe as I am fully vaccinated. Also limiting non essential indoor activities away from home.
 

Antares JS

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The fact that I am now staring down the barrel of working at a hot, humid Wallops Island launch pad next weekend wearing the $*(%# mask absolutely enrages me. I seriously want to drag unvaccinated people who caused this out to that launch pad and make THEM sit out there wearing jeans, hard hats, and masks.
 

boatgeek

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The fact that I am now staring down the barrel of working at a hot, humid Wallops Island launch pad next weekend wearing the $*(%# mask absolutely enrages me. I seriously want to drag unvaccinated people who caused this out to that launch pad and make THEM sit out there wearing jeans, hard hats, and masks.
Maybe you could leave them in the flame trench. Sterilizes all the germs, you know. 🧐
 
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