Nice rig. Two comments.
I think you're right that the aerodynamics of the two rockets don't matter for rail exit speed. I don't think you said that their masses are the same, and that matters a whole lot.
The speed on the drop test is not so known, because friction between the rail and the buttons will make it lower than the calculated freefall value. How much? Probably not much, but it's hard to say.
Come to think of it, if the RS and OR predictions turn out to be high, that may well be the reason, or part of it. They try to predict aerodynamic drag, but I bet the don't consider launch guide friction.
I think you're right that the aerodynamics of the two rockets don't matter for rail exit speed. I don't think you said that their masses are the same, and that matters a whole lot.
The speed on the drop test is not so known, because friction between the rail and the buttons will make it lower than the calculated freefall value. How much? Probably not much, but it's hard to say.
Come to think of it, if the RS and OR predictions turn out to be high, that may well be the reason, or part of it. They try to predict aerodynamic drag, but I bet the don't consider launch guide friction.