ICEs and EVs

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Cape Byron said:
Interesting document from Volvo:

"Volvo Cars published the life cycle assessment of the new Volvo C40 Recharge it makes in Belgium. One of the key findings is that even when the C40 Recharge is charged with electricity from the global energy mix, its carbon footprint, including production and recycling, is lower than that of a combustion engine.

As the C40 Recharge is the first Volvo model to be offered exclusively with electric drive, a petrol-engined Volvo XC40 was used as a comparative combustion engine model for the analysis. Both models are based on the CMA platform from Volvo and its parent company Geely.

According to the life cycle assessment, the C40 Recharge has a CO2 footprint of around 27 tonnes over its entire life cycle if the charging current comes exclusively from clean energy sources. If, on the other hand, the vehicle owner uses the average global energy mix, in which about 60 per cent of electricity is generated from fossil fuels, emissions rise to as much as 50 tonnes of CO2 – with the EU-28 electricity mix, the figure is still 42 tonnes of CO2."

https://www.electrive.com/2021/11/04/volvo-reveals-the-co2-footprint-of-the-c40-recharge/
Click to expand...
This ia very interesting report from Volvo. I love Volvo, I love my T5 turbocharged I5, its a blast to drive. So based on this report my question is when will we be able to get CO2 reduction from the penetration of EV cars?

First from the report there is this plot. Given the global electricity mix you do not get ANY reduction in CO2 until there are 110,000 km on the clock. With the EU mix its 77,000 km. Neglected in this analysis would there be any battery replacement needed at some point after the breakeven point. If there is there will be likely some loss of the CO2 reduction gained.

Screenshot from 2023-01-23 22-19-34.png
In order to get any meaningful CO2 reduction, the average mileage on the EV fleet would need to exceed 110,000 km for the most conservative scenario. So when would this happen given current projections of EV sales.

For this projection I am using the self titled "rosiest forcecast yet"

Screenshot from 2023-01-23 22-27-33.png
A rough regression analysis of this forecast implies a 4% increase per year of EV's sold from the base of 2021 sales of cars in the US.

Next I found an estimate of the average km driven each year. The average American drives 21,687 km per year. Car and Driver did a study and found the average EV is driven 5300 miles per year or 8480 km/year. ICE vehicles get driven about 2x as much or 17,000 km/yr. For the sake of this analysis I will use the 17000 km/yr number for the EV which is most favorable to the EV CO2 reduction breakeven point.

With these pieces of information we can forecast the average mileage per year for the EV fleet. These calculations are shown in the table below.

Screenshot from 2023-01-23 22-44-33.png
The way to interpret this table is the EV sold in 2021 will accumulate 714000 km by 2035, the EVs sold in 2022 will accumulate 1,529,000 km by 2035 and so on. The average miles per EV in the fleet is found by dividing the sum of the accumulated km by the EV population in 2035.

So i this scenario EV will not produce any significant CO2 reduction before 2035 even assuming the EU fuel mix. So yes maybe in the steady state of fully mature EV fleet a reduction will be realized. But we are far away from that even with the rosiest forecast.
 
Funkworks said:
I can't imagine how any power distribution can be more energy efficient than wires straight from the power plant, so I'm not sure it's even worth arguing this. I mean, it might be fun, but I don't think you have to.
Click to expand...
Just put you energy in a train (or barge in some cases) and distribute it from the source to the point of consumption. This works great for coal, but fluids can be distributed even cheaper by pipeline. Electricity does not distribute as efficiently as you would like to think.
 
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Alan15578 said:
Just put you energy in a train (or barge in some cases) and distribute it from the source to the point of consumption. This works great for coal, but fluids can be distributed even cheaper by pipeline. Electricity does not distribute as efficiently as you would like to think.
Click to expand...
Trains, barges and pipelines use motors to effect transport of commodities.
Barges need tugs, pipelines need pumps.
Motors to turn wheels, drive propellers, or pressurize and pump fluid or gas.
Motors burn fuel.
Alan15578 said:
Well, you stepped in that one.
Click to expand...
Yes you did.

Don't know if this was already posted, but NDGT talks about the emissions from electrical generation and how EVs are really cleaner than ICEs. Humorous and presented in everyday (non scientific) language.
 
kuririn said:
Don't know if this was already posted, but NDGT talks about the emissions from electrical generation and how EVs are really cleaner than ICEs. Humorous and presented in everyday (non scientific) language.
Click to expand...

Nope. See Volvo report up a few posts.
 
jderimig said:
Nope. See Volvo report up a few posts.
Click to expand...
Nope.
Show me a link that validates your home grown graphs.
And since you seem to like graphs, here is one from a study, not home grown like yours;

1675021481814.png
Shows the reductions in emissions if passenger and freight ICEs were converted to EVs on Oahu.
Excerpt:
"By 2050, faster adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and faster generation of renewable energy will result in 99% less fossil fuel consumed and 93% less CO2 emissions from passenger and freight vehicles on Oʻahu."
And a link to the study:
https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/12/2/87
 
Funkworks said:
If I understand "You stepped in that one" correctly, no one stepped in anything.


The Volvo report says the same as Tyson: EVs emit less than ICEs any way you look at it (unless they don't get used). I posted many other reports in this thread saying the same. Never found anything saying the opposite.

https://www.edmunds.com/hybrid/
Click to expand...
Nope. EVs with current fuel mix do not have net CO2 cumulative reduction until 72 to 110 K km are run. It will be a VERY LONG time before the EV fleet averages that mileage per vehicle.
NDT is a media celebrity. He is the Don Lemon of science.
 
kuririn said:
He is also a Doctor in astrophysics.
Click to expand...
Does that make him an expert on the relative emission of the EV supply chain relative to the ICE supply chain?
I'll go with the Volvo experts over TV Neil. And Volvo has a strong business interest in the success of EV's/
kuririn said:
You mean the Don Lemon that won an Edward R Murrow Award?
Wow high praise.
Click to expand...
He's actually much smoother the Don Lemon.

Other Ph.D's of note:
Dr. William Happer
Dr. Ivar Giaever, Nobel Prize winner
Dr. Ian Plimer
Dr. Freeman Dyson
Dr. Alan Carlin
 
kuririn said:
12 years is a very long time?
To convert the whole world's fleet of vehicles?
Click to expand...
As progressively new EV's enter the fleet (there is turnover you know) the average fleet mileage decreases. The Volvo report and the US DOT will show this effect. And turning over the automobile fleet in 12 years is pure fantasy. But its ok to dream.
 
jderimig said:
Nope. EVs with current fuel mix do not have net CO2 cumulative reduction until 72 to 110 K km are run. It will be a VERY LONG time before the EV fleet averages that mileage per vehicle.
Click to expand...
"Nope" nothing. You know very well they run for well over 100k on any energy mix, and just want to argue for the sake of arguing.

Tens of thousands of Ph.D.'s and engineers are working in companies and colleges on batteries, EVs and differenet energy sources and management sustems, so these little crews of notable stars are quite insignifcant.

https://www.drivingelectric.com/your-questions-answered/106/what-plug-hybrid-or-phev
 
I agree that if we can turnover the fleet to EV's in 12 years emissions will decrease. That is because there won't be enough electricty to charge them and they will spend most of their time in the driveway.
 
jderimig said:
I'll go with the Volvo experts over TV Neil. And Volvo has a strong business interest in the success of EV's/
Click to expand...
From the Volvo experts you are going with:
"To fully exploit the potential of electric cars, Volvo Cars is therefore calling for more investment in clean energy. “We need green power throughout the supply chain and production, not just in the use phase when charging,” says Otterheim. “We are not waiting for regulatory requirements here, but proactively moving forward.” For example, Volvo has set itself the goal of emitting 40 per cent less CO2 per car by 2025 (compared to 2018). Of this, 25 per cent is to be saved in production – among other things through increased proportions of recycled materials, including aluminium."
 
Funkworks said:
"Nope" nothing. You know very well they run for well over 100k, and just want to argue for the sake of arguing.
Click to expand...
Of course they will, but the fleet average will be considerable less in an environment of progressively new sales of EV each year. See the math. Total emissions is a function of the average fleet miles, not the peak age of individual EV's.
 
kuririn said:
From the Volvo experts you are going with:
"To fully exploit the potential of electric cars, Volvo Cars is therefore calling for more investment in clean energy. “We need green power throughout the supply chain and production, not just in the use phase when charging,” says Otterheim. “We are not waiting for regulatory requirements here, but proactively moving forward.” For example, Volvo has set itself the goal of emitting 40 per cent less CO2 per car by 2025 (compared to 2018). Of this, 25 per cent is to be saved in production – among other things through increased proportions of recycled materials, including aluminium."
Click to expand...
Volvo is calling for it thus it will be sure to happen....... Even though are are no engineering project plans that shows its possible, just aspirations. Start building nukes.
 
jderimig said:
Of course they will, but the fleet average will be considerable less in an environment of progressively new sales of EV each year. See the math. Total emissions is a function of the average fleet miles, not the peak age of individual EV's.
Click to expand...
If you have math to show, write a report and publish it so I can find it and post it here like I posted the other ones you're ignoring.
 
Funkworks said:
If you have math to show, write a report and publish it so I can find it and post it here like I posted the other ones you're ignoring.
Click to expand...
Just take a survey of your friends and neighbors. What is the average miles on odometer of all their vehicles now?
 
kuririn said:
You're the one that cited 2035 in your graphs.
That's your figure, not mine.
Click to expand...
Yes and in 2035 EV have not reduced net emissions in the US given Volvo and US DOT data assuming the EU fuel mix which is nowhere close to the US fuel mix.
 
As far as average miles driven, I think a big reason for the disparity is the immaturity of the charging infrastructure. That is rapidly changing. I'm seeing charging stations pop up all over the place. But some regions are lagging behind.
 

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