- Jan 23, 2009
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This ia very interesting report from Volvo. I love Volvo, I love my T5 turbocharged I5, its a blast to drive. So based on this report my question is when will we be able to get CO2 reduction from the penetration of EV cars?Interesting document from Volvo:
"Volvo Cars published the life cycle assessment of the new Volvo C40 Recharge it makes in Belgium. One of the key findings is that even when the C40 Recharge is charged with electricity from the global energy mix, its carbon footprint, including production and recycling, is lower than that of a combustion engine.
As the C40 Recharge is the first Volvo model to be offered exclusively with electric drive, a petrol-engined Volvo XC40 was used as a comparative combustion engine model for the analysis. Both models are based on the CMA platform from Volvo and its parent company Geely.
According to the life cycle assessment, the C40 Recharge has a CO2 footprint of around 27 tonnes over its entire life cycle if the charging current comes exclusively from clean energy sources. If, on the other hand, the vehicle owner uses the average global energy mix, in which about 60 per cent of electricity is generated from fossil fuels, emissions rise to as much as 50 tonnes of CO2 – with the EU-28 electricity mix, the figure is still 42 tonnes of CO2."
Volvo reveals the CO2 footprint of the C40 Recharge - electrive.comVolvo Cars published the life cycle assessment of the new Volvo C40 Recharge it makes in Belgium. One of the key findings is that even when the C40 Recharge is charged with electricity from the global energy mix, its carbon footprint, including production and recycling, is lower than that of…www.electrive.com
First from the report there is this plot. Given the global electricity mix you do not get ANY reduction in CO2 until there are 110,000 km on the clock. With the EU mix its 77,000 km. Neglected in this analysis would there be any battery replacement needed at some point after the breakeven point. If there is there will be likely some loss of the CO2 reduction gained.
In order to get any meaningful CO2 reduction, the average mileage on the EV fleet would need to exceed 110,000 km for the most conservative scenario. So when would this happen given current projections of EV sales.
For this projection I am using the self titled "rosiest forcecast yet"
A rough regression analysis of this forecast implies a 4% increase per year of EV's sold from the base of 2021 sales of cars in the US.
Next I found an estimate of the average km driven each year. The average American drives 21,687 km per year. Car and Driver did a study and found the average EV is driven 5300 miles per year or 8480 km/year. ICE vehicles get driven about 2x as much or 17,000 km/yr. For the sake of this analysis I will use the 17000 km/yr number for the EV which is most favorable to the EV CO2 reduction breakeven point.
With these pieces of information we can forecast the average mileage per year for the EV fleet. These calculations are shown in the table below.
The way to interpret this table is the EV sold in 2021 will accumulate 714000 km by 2035, the EVs sold in 2022 will accumulate 1,529,000 km by 2035 and so on. The average miles per EV in the fleet is found by dividing the sum of the accumulated km by the EV population in 2035.
So i this scenario EV will not produce any significant CO2 reduction before 2035 even assuming the EU fuel mix. So yes maybe in the steady state of fully mature EV fleet a reduction will be realized. But we are far away from that even with the rosiest forecast.