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Hat tip: Roger Pielke
Three reports were issued a few days ago that are pertinent to this question.
The figure also shows that the U.S. will need to achieve an annual rate of reduction in emissions of about 4.8% +/- to hit its 2025 target and about 6.5%/year to hit its 2030 target.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (of which I am a huge fan) is the federal agency with responsibility for projecting energy outlooks in the short and long terms. The Figure below summarizes the EIA’s latest projections for carbon dioxide emissions, which we can compare to the annual rates of emissions reductions necessary to hit the policy targets.
The black bars indicate the annual emissions increases and decreases observed and projected to 2024. In no year will the rates of reduction come close to the rates necessary to achieve the targets.
The figure above, which is based on data released just yesterday — well after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — indicates that after a projected modest reductions in emissions in 2023, emissions reductions are expected to come almost to a halt in 2024.
Overall, , carbon dioxide emissions from energy are projected to have decreased by just 1.8% from 2021, which was the rebound year following the pandemic, thus offering a generous baseline.
The bottom line here is that the U.S. seems all but certain to miss its 2025 emissions reduction target and with each passing day, achievement of its 2030 target gets further and further out of reach.
As I have often noted here, discussions of climate are frequently detached from empirical reality. So I suppose some might be able to continue to pretend that U.S. emission reduction targets might still be met. The good news that accompanies short-term targets is that we will not have to wait long to find out.
Three reports were issued a few days ago that are pertinent to this question.
- U.S. Energy Information Agency Short-Term Energy Outlook (US EIA)
- Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2022 (Rhodium Group)
- U.S. Power Generation: 2022 Review (Enersection)
The figure also shows that the U.S. will need to achieve an annual rate of reduction in emissions of about 4.8% +/- to hit its 2025 target and about 6.5%/year to hit its 2030 target.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (of which I am a huge fan) is the federal agency with responsibility for projecting energy outlooks in the short and long terms. The Figure below summarizes the EIA’s latest projections for carbon dioxide emissions, which we can compare to the annual rates of emissions reductions necessary to hit the policy targets.
The black bars indicate the annual emissions increases and decreases observed and projected to 2024. In no year will the rates of reduction come close to the rates necessary to achieve the targets.
The figure above, which is based on data released just yesterday — well after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — indicates that after a projected modest reductions in emissions in 2023, emissions reductions are expected to come almost to a halt in 2024.
Overall, , carbon dioxide emissions from energy are projected to have decreased by just 1.8% from 2021, which was the rebound year following the pandemic, thus offering a generous baseline.
The bottom line here is that the U.S. seems all but certain to miss its 2025 emissions reduction target and with each passing day, achievement of its 2030 target gets further and further out of reach.
As I have often noted here, discussions of climate are frequently detached from empirical reality. So I suppose some might be able to continue to pretend that U.S. emission reduction targets might still be met. The good news that accompanies short-term targets is that we will not have to wait long to find out.
