Here's the "Blockbuster Bombshell" global warming study!

[ThirstyBarbarian]

In another thread, I mentioned a "bombshell" study related to the rate of melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets would be released this week, and members asked me to post a link when it was ready. Here it is: https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.html

The link takes you to a page where you can read an abstract, download a pdf or xml copy of the entire paper, see comments and discussion of the paper, and also see related papers.

A few caveats:

• The "Blockbuster Bombshell" title of the thread is meant as irony. We won't know how important this study is until we've read and evaluated it, and that is going to take some time, but already some news outlets are hyping it. Let's be better than that. If the study is accurate and the findings are true, then it is indeed a very important "bombshell" discovery with some very serious implications, but we really don't know yet.
• I have not read the study, so I do not have an opinion on it yet.
• In addition to its scientific findings, the study seems to state a policy position related to government and international action on climate change. I make it a rule for myself not to take policy and political positions on this forum, so I will not be debating policy, just science. I'd recommend others take the same approach of avoiding that controversy on this forum. There's plenty of other places to vent about that kind of thing. Please stick to what you of think the study and its scientific conclusions.
• The study is being released through a non-conventional channel. Instead of a peer-reviewed paper being released though a peer-reviewed scientific journal, the study is a "discussion paper" released through an "open-access journal." Other scientists will be posting comments, asking questions, linking to other studies, making arguments, etc., the study authors will be responding, and the public can watch the entire process unfold. This is not the way it is usually done, but I think is going to be very interesting to see a peer-review process unfold in real time --- it is usually handled privately before a study gets published, so we'll be seeing a process we don't usually get to see. It won't be like the comments section on HuffPo or the Daily Caller, but there may be some "science nerd drama." Also, because the review process has not really been conducted yet, findings should be taken with a grain of salt --- the findings have not be well-scrutinized yet. Most likely there will be a follow-up paper published by the authors after the open-access process runs its course, and the authors have time to consider the issues that get brought up.
• The lead author is James Hansen who is considered by some to be a controversial figure in climate science. He is a scientist who often takes what some consider to be an activist role in climate policy debate. What you may think about Hansen is really beside the point for purposes of discussing the science of the report. Whether you like him or dislike him is irrelevant to whether the study is sound, so I'd ask that you set your opinion of him aside and avoid ad-hominem arguments about the study. Stick to science, please.

I'm hoping to get a chance to read some of this tonight. Take a look!

 

[mpitfield]

Although I find this interesting and can understand the science once explained, especially if there are shiny pictures, I think based on the abstract I am better qualified to sit back and watch this one unfold.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Although I find this interesting and can understand the science once explained, especially if there are shiny pictures, I think based on the abstract I am better qualified to sit back and watch this one unfold.

This one is definitely not written in an easy-breezy, consumer-friendly style --- that's for sure! It's going to take awhile to slog through it.

 

[H_Rocket]

I think I would prefer either

A) the entire RFC for IPV6
B) a plate of cookies and glass of milk

Or

C) 2 hours of PowerPoint on Microsoft licensing

As a sleep aid

 

[Onebadhawk]

Although I find this interesting and can understand the science once explained, [I]especially if there are shiny pictures[/I], I think based on the abstract I am better qualified to sit back and watch this one unfold.

hahahahah....

Teddy

 

[jderimig]

Page 20122 - Lines 1-4

The task of achieving a reduction of atmospheric CO
2 is formidable, but not impossible. Rapid transition to abundant affordable carbon-free electricity is the core requirement, as that would also permit production of net-zero-carbon liquid fuels from electricity.

I agree. Let's get started on those nuke plants now! I am with Hansen on this one! Add one reactor to every nuke-station in existence now, add more copper to their connection to the grid and that will be a good start to saving the world.

 

[mpitfield]

Page 20122 - Lines 1-4


I agree. Let's get started on those nuke plants now! Wind and solar is not an "abundant" carbon-free electricity source. I am with Hansen on this one!

I like where this thread is going

 

[jderimig]

I like where this thread is going

I edited my post to take out the controversial statement....

This is serious folks. We need to stop the sea level rise.

 

[mpitfield]

I edited my post to take out the controversial statement....

This is serious folks. We need to stop the sea level rise.

From a practical here and now perspective, I agree whole heatedly with the Nuclear choice. It's the long term issues of that decision that scare me. I just hope we can get those antimatter in a fusion reaction chambers up and running once we find a good source for the dilithium crystals.

 

[jderimig]

From a practical here and now perspective, I agree whole heatedly with the Nuclear choice. It's the long term issues of that decision that scare me. I just hope we can get those antimatter in a fusion reaction chambers up and running once we find a good source for the dilithium crystals.

We don't have time for fusion, its ten years away. We got to get to splitting more atoms right away! (According to Hansen because these melts will accelerate and happen faster than anyone else has estimated.) I am also looking forward to the peer review comments on this paper.

 

[RKeller]

I find the whole climate change thing fascinating. trying to put ridiculous politics aside, I do believe we need to be aware of our influence on the planet. climate change is real, but we know very little about it. I mean, the ice age ended... that's good right? wasn't that global warming? maybe the Dilithium crystals are under the ice caps....