Not Quite Nominal
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As a spinoff of another thread, let's talk about concrete strategies to grow the hobby. My thoughts so far:
1a: Hobby growth model
I'm into, and have been into, many expensive time-suck hobbies (too many, says my wife). Cars, motorcycles, guns, scuba diving, the list goes on and on. There seems to be a common thread to how people get into them:
The biggest group of scuba divers are people who remember Jacques Cousteau movies.
A certain demographic grew up in the 60s aspiring to own classic muscle cars and Harleys. By the 80s nobody cared about them. In the early 2000s prices for them skyrocketed. Now you can custom choppers and restored GTOs for half what they went for ten years ago.
Porsches were the thing to have in the 80s. In the early 90s Porsche was dying and you could pick up a 911SC for a song. Now ratty mid-70s Porsches regularly command 100k.
If you want investment advice from me (and you don't), buy a whale-tail GSXR750 and a WRX. They'll be worth big money fifteen years from now. Or wait ten years and buy a Tesla. When today's high school kids get rich, that's the classic car they'll buy.
Of course, this applies to rocketry. Watch a man land on the moon, play with rockets at 12, get into dating, college, jobs, raising a kid, and then later in life get back into rocketry.
2a: Where we are in the model:
I don't know how much we can do regarding Step 1. Middle-aged guys build small rockets because as a kid they saw big rockets. We don't have the size to reach millions, and our rockets may not be impressive enough to make a decades-long impression on young people. Outreach to today's schoolchildren may lead to more engineers (a good thing), but it will be too little, too late to keep Aerotech and Madcow in business.
USLI and TARC are good for the mid-term future of the hobby, as young engineers have the time and money to chase a few certs and light off a few motors. Once they get daycare and mortgage bills though, that will change.
Luckily, we're having a mini rocketry boom, because we're getting a whole lot of Step 1 (inspire millions) from SpaceX and Blue Origin. We're lucky.
2b: Who we can reach:
We're doing very well with Step 3/4 (wait 30 years, recruit middle-aged guys with money). The low-hanging fruit for us is Step 2: young guys with time.
Rocketry requires money, time, technical skill, and a familiarity with tools. That draws a box around the sort of people we should target. Drone people, car people, off-road people, scuba divers, sailors, etc. The target audience should already be comfortable dropping a few hundred bucks and a weekend on a hobby.
I went into a hobby shop to get an extra LiPo charger. When they asked why, I told them I was building a rocket. "Like a model rocket?" they asked, having never heard of anything bigger than the Mighty D12. I showed them a few pictures of my decidedly unimpressive high-power fleet (Adventurer, Fusion, Dragonfly) and they were shocked. By the time I showed a ThreeCarbYen video, half the store was huddled around my phone.
If I had promo material, they'd probably all be at launches now.
Three or so years ago, I had no idea about hobby rocketry. I was sitting in bed watching YouTube videos and happened to see something on the sidebar about a rocket reaching 100k (probably ThreeCarbYen or Qu8k). I figured it was clickbait, but it had so few views I decided to give it a look.
Shortly afterwards I said to my wife "you have to see this!" (perhaps a few words expurgated) and here I am.
3a: How to reach people
My preferred management model is "Decide from below, provide from above". Decisions should be made as close to the subject matter as possible. A suggestion would be to have each chapter/prefecture create a new office: Chief of recruiting. This person would be responsible for seeking out local target-rich environments (hobby shops, drone conventions, etc) with promotional material. As an incentive, or at least a cost offset, the national organization could send back to the club half of the first year dues of each new member.
3b: What to reach them with
Most, if not all clubs, don't have the resources to create promotional material. A semi-standard template of promotional material could be created, but this is an endeavor large enough it will require the cooperation of the large national organizations and funding from the major vendors. They will obviously be unlikely to join up on this merely at my suggestion. A set of basic promo materials could include:
Anyone who has sold anything knows that it's easy to get people excited and hard to get them to follow up. It's important for a club to harvest contact information of prospects, and then call/email them a week or two in advance regarding upcoming launches. Standard rules of human decency and local laws regarding mass communication obviously apply.
1a: Hobby growth model
I'm into, and have been into, many expensive time-suck hobbies (too many, says my wife). Cars, motorcycles, guns, scuba diving, the list goes on and on. There seems to be a common thread to how people get into them:
- Inspire millions of young people
- Recruit thousands of single guys with time.
- Wait thirty years
- Recruit middle aged guys with money.
- Hope they don't age out of the hobby.
The biggest group of scuba divers are people who remember Jacques Cousteau movies.
A certain demographic grew up in the 60s aspiring to own classic muscle cars and Harleys. By the 80s nobody cared about them. In the early 2000s prices for them skyrocketed. Now you can custom choppers and restored GTOs for half what they went for ten years ago.
Porsches were the thing to have in the 80s. In the early 90s Porsche was dying and you could pick up a 911SC for a song. Now ratty mid-70s Porsches regularly command 100k.
If you want investment advice from me (and you don't), buy a whale-tail GSXR750 and a WRX. They'll be worth big money fifteen years from now. Or wait ten years and buy a Tesla. When today's high school kids get rich, that's the classic car they'll buy.
Of course, this applies to rocketry. Watch a man land on the moon, play with rockets at 12, get into dating, college, jobs, raising a kid, and then later in life get back into rocketry.
2a: Where we are in the model:
I don't know how much we can do regarding Step 1. Middle-aged guys build small rockets because as a kid they saw big rockets. We don't have the size to reach millions, and our rockets may not be impressive enough to make a decades-long impression on young people. Outreach to today's schoolchildren may lead to more engineers (a good thing), but it will be too little, too late to keep Aerotech and Madcow in business.
USLI and TARC are good for the mid-term future of the hobby, as young engineers have the time and money to chase a few certs and light off a few motors. Once they get daycare and mortgage bills though, that will change.
Luckily, we're having a mini rocketry boom, because we're getting a whole lot of Step 1 (inspire millions) from SpaceX and Blue Origin. We're lucky.
2b: Who we can reach:
We're doing very well with Step 3/4 (wait 30 years, recruit middle-aged guys with money). The low-hanging fruit for us is Step 2: young guys with time.
Rocketry requires money, time, technical skill, and a familiarity with tools. That draws a box around the sort of people we should target. Drone people, car people, off-road people, scuba divers, sailors, etc. The target audience should already be comfortable dropping a few hundred bucks and a weekend on a hobby.
I went into a hobby shop to get an extra LiPo charger. When they asked why, I told them I was building a rocket. "Like a model rocket?" they asked, having never heard of anything bigger than the Mighty D12. I showed them a few pictures of my decidedly unimpressive high-power fleet (Adventurer, Fusion, Dragonfly) and they were shocked. By the time I showed a ThreeCarbYen video, half the store was huddled around my phone.
If I had promo material, they'd probably all be at launches now.
Three or so years ago, I had no idea about hobby rocketry. I was sitting in bed watching YouTube videos and happened to see something on the sidebar about a rocket reaching 100k (probably ThreeCarbYen or Qu8k). I figured it was clickbait, but it had so few views I decided to give it a look.
Shortly afterwards I said to my wife "you have to see this!" (perhaps a few words expurgated) and here I am.
3a: How to reach people
My preferred management model is "Decide from below, provide from above". Decisions should be made as close to the subject matter as possible. A suggestion would be to have each chapter/prefecture create a new office: Chief of recruiting. This person would be responsible for seeking out local target-rich environments (hobby shops, drone conventions, etc) with promotional material. As an incentive, or at least a cost offset, the national organization could send back to the club half of the first year dues of each new member.
3b: What to reach them with
Most, if not all clubs, don't have the resources to create promotional material. A semi-standard template of promotional material could be created, but this is an endeavor large enough it will require the cooperation of the large national organizations and funding from the major vendors. They will obviously be unlikely to join up on this merely at my suggestion. A set of basic promo materials could include:
- Poster (hobby store, to be included with products)
- Poster (non-hobby store such as car/bike)
- Flyers
- Manned booth (car show/hobby show)
- Manned booth (university)
- Manned booth (high school/middle school)
Anyone who has sold anything knows that it's easy to get people excited and hard to get them to follow up. It's important for a club to harvest contact information of prospects, and then call/email them a week or two in advance regarding upcoming launches. Standard rules of human decency and local laws regarding mass communication obviously apply.