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Flyfalcons

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I also think he is failing to see that this is affecting the whole planet, not just his little town in his little state..

Canada has had national, provincials, and municipal shut downs. Our governments have also paid out billions in recover, hand outs, and what not to help the every day citizen.. ($85 billion I believe the latest bumper was, just for 'personal help')




Oh, and that "Assad" guy form Syria comes to mind of not caring for his citizens..
Why would you think that?
 

boatgeek

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In a newspaper article about the new closures here, a restaurant owner said that he didn’t like the closures but the restaurant industry wasn’t going to come back until the virus is in the rear view mirror.
 

CalebJ

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WTF? That's not putting words into another's mouth.

It's literally the message you've presented in this thread. That we shouldn't have done the things we did because of the economy.
 

Flyfalcons

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WTF? That's not putting words into another's mouth.

It's literally the message you've presented in this thread. That we shouldn't have done the things we did because of the economy.
I did not say we should have done nothing. Masks, washing hands, all fine and I do that. Lockdowns and forcibly shutting businesses? Oh hell no. Only those who weren't put under financial hardship feel otherwise.
 

boatgeek

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I did not say we should have done nothing. Masks, washing hands, all fine and I do that. Lockdowns and forcibly shutting businesses? Oh hell no. Only those who weren't put under financial hardship feel otherwise.
Erm, no. There are lots of people in business who are negatively affected by the lockdowns who also support them. The restaurant owner cited above. The landlord of the building where my company’s office is. I’m sure there are plenty more. Just because you don’t know them doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
 

kuririn

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We've done this dance a few months ago.
No need to re hash it all over again.
I may not agree with Falcon, but I don't know his circumstances.
What it boils down to is two hard choices.
Is saving a life worth imposing hardship on a hundred citizens?
A thousand? A million?
How do you quantify the two?
You can't.
We elect our leaders to make the hard choices.
And our experts to give us the best current information.
Then make a decision and hope it was the right one.
That is the best that is humanly possible.
 

Flyfalcons

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Erm, no. There are lots of people in business who are negatively affected by the lockdowns who also support them. The restaurant owner cited above. The landlord of the building where my company’s office is. I’m sure there are plenty more. Just because you don’t know them doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
I support their right to shut their businesses down voluntarily, as long as they would support the rights of others to continue theirs. I travel for work obviously, and have seen the many people and businesses across the country who are trying to make it work. I have also witnessed firsthand, the devastating effects of people who have been forced out of their business through unnecessary mandated closures.

Any fans of Mike Rowe? He had a slightly lengthy post recently regarding this situation. This paragraph, in particular, sums most of his thoughts up pretty well.

"“Safety Third” is not a call to take unnecessary risk, it’s just another way to say, “be careful out there, but not so careful that you’re unable to function.” It’s also a good-natured reminder that nothing worthwhile in the long history of our species has ever been accomplished by those whose who were unwilling to assume some degree of risk. (And perhaps, a not so gentle reminder to our elected officials, that the rules and regulations they would have us follow are a lot more persuasive when they follow them too.) I’m not arguing that guidelines and regulations aren’t effective and necessary – I’m just saying that extreme measures often come with a long list of unintended consequences, and these lockdowns are no exception."

Live your life accordingly, and preferrably seek opinions and experiences outside your echo chamber.
 

afadeev

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My premise is that people die every day, to the tune of 8,000 in our country. [...] Do with that information whatever you want.
Judge: Why did you shoot that old lady?
Defendant: Your honor, "people die every day, to the tune of 8,000 in our country".
Judge: Oh, OK, I didn't know that. All charges are dropped. You are free to go.

Our morals and laws are codified to disincentive taking someone's life, property, and establishing guideposts for minimally acceptable behavior in society.
Taking someone's life, though action, or inaction, is universally discouraged in all civilized societies.
The fact that people have finite lifespan, does not change the above.
 
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Flyfalcons

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Judge: Why did you shoot that old lady?
Defendant: Your honor, "people die every day, to the tune of 8,000 in our country".
Judge: Oh, OK, I didn't know that. All charges are dropped. You are free to go.

Our morals and laws are codified to disincentive taking someone's life, property, and establishing guideposts for minimally acceptable behavior in society.
Taking someone's life, though action, or inaction, is universally discouraged in all civilized societies.
The fact that people have finite lifespan, does not change the above.
Are the tens of thousands to over 100,000 annual flu deaths equated to murder or is that different?
 

kuririn

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Are the tens of thousands to over 100,000 annual flu deaths equated to murder or is that different?
I take it that you cite that statistic to follow up with the question "Why are we shutting down the economy for Covid but not for the flu"?
And my response would be that we have effective annual vaccines for flu, but not for Covid.
And hopefully once an effective Covid vaccine is widely distributed we can lessen or eliminate the restrictions and mandates currently in place.
And enjoy each others' company.
Like before.
 

afadeev

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Are the tens of thousands to over 100,000 annual flu deaths equated to murder or is that different?
100K people do not die from flu in the US.
The number is much smaller, and incomparable to the death toll from Covid-19.

US has been taking precautions to minimize avoidable deaths from flu, like vaccination, healthcare providers education, and targeted medical care.
Now we are learning how to do the same with Covid.
We have fewer tools at our disposal to minimize hospitalizations and deaths from Covid, and the deaths from Covid-19 pandemic are a few orders of magnitude higher than that from the flu. Thus the actions required to minimize the avoidable deaths from Covid are significantly more far reaching, and more invasive.

As the inventory of our tools for controlling Covid growths (e.g.: vaccines, more effective treatments), our society will be able to withdraw application of more blunt and restrictive social distancing and indoor occupancy restriction limits.

Until that time, EVERY civilized society on this planet has been taking the same morally and legally responsible steps to take care of our fellow citizens.
But, as always, any action brings forth an opposite reaction, and dissenters. Some out of political expediency, some out of allegiance to their social group's dogmas, some out of anti-social and immoral ignorance.
And then, there are the folks who just like to troll on the internet.
 
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Flyfalcons

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100K people do not due from flu in the US.
The number is much smaller, and incomparable to the death toll from Covid-19.

US has been taking precautions to minimize avoidable deaths from flu, like vaccination, healthcare providers education, and targeted medical care.
Now we are learning how to do the same with Covid.
We have fewer tools at our disposal to minimize hospitalizations and deaths from Covid, and the deaths from Covid-19 pandemic are a few orders of magnitude higher than that from the flu. Thus the actions required to minimize the avoidable deaths from Covid are significantly more far reaching, and more invasive.

As the inventory of our tools for controlling Covid growths (e.g.: vaccines, more effective treatments), our society will be able to withdraw application of more blunt and restrictive social distancing and indoor occupancy restriction limits.

Until that time, EVERY civilized society on this planet has been taking the same morally and legally responsible steps to take care of our fellow citizens.
But, as always, any action brings forth an opposite reaction, and dissenters. Some out of political expediency, some out of allegiance to their social group's dogmas, some out of anti-social and immoral ignorance.
And then, there are the folks who just like to troll on the internet.
In 2018 the toll was over 100,000. But the media didn't tell you to be scared, so that's apparently different.
 

CalebJ

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In 2018 the toll was over 100,000. But the media didn't tell you to be scared, so that's apparently different.
Source?

Because the CDC certainly doesn't back up those numbers.
 

boatgeek

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I support their right to shut their businesses down voluntarily, as long as they would support the rights of others to continue theirs. I travel for work obviously, and have seen the many people and businesses across the country who are trying to make it work. I have also witnessed firsthand, the devastating effects of people who have been forced out of their business through unnecessary mandated closures.

Any fans of Mike Rowe? He had a slightly lengthy post recently regarding this situation. This paragraph, in particular, sums most of his thoughts up pretty well.

"“Safety Third” is not a call to take unnecessary risk, it’s just another way to say, “be careful out there, but not so careful that you’re unable to function.” It’s also a good-natured reminder that nothing worthwhile in the long history of our species has ever been accomplished by those whose who were unwilling to assume some degree of risk. (And perhaps, a not so gentle reminder to our elected officials, that the rules and regulations they would have us follow are a lot more persuasive when they follow them too.) I’m not arguing that guidelines and regulations aren’t effective and necessary – I’m just saying that extreme measures often come with a long list of unintended consequences, and these lockdowns are no exception."

Live your life accordingly, and preferrably seek opinions and experiences outside your echo chamber.
OK, so I'll ask a couple of leading questions outside my echo chamber.

About a decade ago, there was an artisanal raw milk cheesemaker a couple of hours away from here. They made some of the best cheese I've eaten in my life, and I lived in Switzerland for four years. The state health inspector found listeria in their aging cave on two successive visits. When the cheesemaker declined to take substantive action, the health department seized their entire stock and the business folded soon after. No customers had actually gotten sick with listeria, but it's certainly not a nice disease, and it can definitely kill people.

A) Was the state health department right to take action?
B) If so, how is that different from temporarily closing bars and restaurants where we have a known significant risk of disease and death due to normal operations, even with precautions?
C) If not, what situations do you think there are where a state health department could reasonably close a business, and how are those different from the COVID closures of indoor service at restaurants and bars? Keep in mind that we know that the virus spreads readily when people don't wear masks indoors, and it is nearly impossible to wear a mask while eating or drinking.
 

NateB

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Keep in mind that we know that the virus spreads readily when people don't wear masks indoors, and it is nearly impossible to wear a mask while eating or drinking.
According to our county health commissioner, they aren't seeing many cases they can trace to restaurants. He has said that almost all of the cases are traced to private gatherings indoors where people have their guard down, aren't wearing masks or engaging in any social distancing.

If this is true, because of the issues someone linked earlier about people lying to contact tracers it might not be, it seems like the methods restaurants have been using like seating every other table and limiting party size are working. Let them stay open if they aren't shown to be contributing to the spread of this disease.

Of course we need people to be honest with the health department, wear their masks when possible, and follow the best practice guidelines in order to keep as many public spaces open as possible.
 

dr wogz

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We are also feeling the pressure for restaurant closures. And we (the wife & I) are doing our best to order form & take out food from local restaurants. they have been closed now a few times to limit the spread. Gyms too, are being affected. the rules are being applied, but many are complaining that the rules should apply to 'them' but not to 'us'

And we have fines for non-compliance (Police recently fined a gym owner who was giving a class. trouble is, the class was an on-line class!! so, he got the fine, and is contesting it!)

But as Nate mentions, people must do their part. As I've mentioned in the past: "It's one thing to follow the rules. It's entirely another to know why the rules are in place.."

case in point: I'm grocery shopping.
  • The store has clearly marked directions for the aisles. yet there a few who ignore them.
  • The elderly couple in front of me are shopping (should be only one, but whatever) The husband is pretty useless in this shopping endeavour. both have masks on, but his is slowly slipping as they shop. She has the added protection of gloves on, but is touching & handling just about every can on the shelf!
  • While I try to maintain my distance, other seem to take this and an opportunity to barge into my space. I'll move to the requested 2m (6.somethign feet) and let them shop. not even a thank you or sorry..
this 2nd wave is worse as many are complacent about eh rules, are tired of, just don't care anymore, etc..

 

dr wogz

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modeltrains

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My sister in law in Tennessee got covid and has recovered.
Got word from an internet friend in India who was met in Google Plus creative writing and in spaceflight groups that her cousin and cousin's husband have gone home from hospital and are improving.

Their father, my friend's uncle, became a covid fatality.
Mona wrote this, https://manicsylph.com/2020/11/21/poem-of-the-day-21st-november-2020/
This poem is in memory of a family member lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. Sometimes, there’s nothing more you can do except pray for healing. I hope my prayers will give peace to people suffering all over the world.
One member of our little farm burg's creative writers group is now recovered from covid.

Heard on radio yesterday that a neighboring county had something like 3 covid deaths who were all over 80.
 

Marc_G

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My sister in law in Tennessee got covid and has recovered.
Got word from an internet friend in India who was met in Google Plus creative writing and in spaceflight groups that her cousin and cousin's husband have gone home from hospital and are improving.

Their father, my friend's uncle, became a covid fatality.
Mona wrote this, https://manicsylph.com/2020/11/21/poem-of-the-day-21st-november-2020/


One member of our little farm burg's creative writers group is now recovered from covid.

Heard on radio yesterday that a neighboring county had something like 3 covid deaths who were all over 80.
@modeltrains I'm sorry for your loss. The disease is taking so many from us, and even many who don't die suffer terribly either directly from the disease, or the disruption it causes.

@Flyfalcons
You asserted 100k deaths in 2018 from the flu; that's actually way off. The 2018-2019 flu season recorded just over 34k deaths in the US; the season before that was about 61k, per the CDC estimates posted here:

Like others have said, our current 260k+ deaths (February through yesterday) bakes in the fact that we shut the economy down and did all manner of other things that you and some others have been railing against. Without those measures we would be something like an order of magnitude higher. Again, if you look at the range of Sweden (light, late response) to Norway (strong, rapid response) you see a 10x difference in outcome for otherwise comparable societies. The US response would be characterized as maybe one third of the way between Sweden and Norway... we would be well over 1M dead by now for sure.

And even with what we've been doing, the winter is sure to be a tough one. The vaccines won't start to stem the tide until well into Q1 at best, and people here are dying at a rolling average of >1700 per day now (per worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ ). Generally, peaks in deaths follow peaks in cases by 3-4 weeks. So, if one looks at the change in cases over the last month (we've gone up by a factor 2.8 in that time, case-wise), we can expect a month from now our deaths will have gone up by a similar factor. By Christmastime expect US citizens to be dying at a rate between 4000-5000 per day due to COVID-19. I do think our case-curve will start to tail over soon, as increased measures both voluntary and compulsory take effect. Eventually, the death curve will follow, but only after it has cut a grim swath through the country.
 

bguffer

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Some official Ohio numbers snapshotted a few days ago (taken from official Ohio Covid 19 Dashboard). Interpret as you like.

Median age of Covid death vs United States life expectancy. Also has breakdown of deaths by age group. Appears exponential.

a1 - 2020-11-18 - Ohio Median Age Covid Death vs CDC 2018 Life Expectancy.jpg


Hospital bed situation. Blue is Covid. Red is Non-Covid. White is available.
b - 2020-11-18 - Ohio Capacities.jpg


Region 3 Ohio (Dayton area) where Montgomery County Health Board issued 4 week lock down advisory a couple days ago:
b - 2020-11-18 - Region3(MontgomeryAndSurrounding) Capacities - Zoomed.jpg


Region 4 Ohio (Columbus area) where Franklin County Health Board issued 4 week lock down advisory a couple days ago:
b - 2020-11-18 - Region4(FranklinAndSurrounding) Capacities - Zoomed.jpg


Number of ICUs is lower than number of deaths. Seems odds, but suspect the difference is folks in nursing homes deteriorating in 12-48 hours, pass away, then aftewards test positive for Covid. Perhaps some older folks (75+) consciously choose to die at home, rather than in a hospital, alone, surrounded by masked/gloved people, and with a tube down their throat.
c - Number Of ICUs Is Lower Than Number Deaths.jpg


Median age of Ohio Covid19 hospitalization. Hospitalizations are not exponential, though there appears to be a distinct jump between under 50 and over 50 groups.
d - 2020-11-18 - Ohio Median Age Covid Hospitalization.jpg


Cannot find median age of ICU.


Bob
 
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modeltrains

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The Sweden versus Norway thing, I'm not the world's biggest student of the thing but I do know of this,

In Norway, mortality rates were stable during the first three 12-month periods of 2015/16; 2016/17 and 2017/18 (MR 14.8 to 15.1 per 100,000), and slightly lower in the two most recent periods including during epidemic period (2018/19 and 2019/20; 14.5 per 100,000). In Sweden, all-cause mortality was stable during the first three 12-month periods of 2015/16; 2016/17 and 2017/18 (MR 17.2 to 17.5 per 100,000), but lower in the year 2018/19 immediately preceding the epidemic (16.2 per 100,000). Covid-19 associated mortality rates were 0.2 per 100,000 (95%CI 0.1 to 0.4) in Norway and 2.9 (95%CI 1.9 to 3.9) in Sweden. The increase in mortality was confined to individuals in 70 years or older.
Conclusions All-cause mortality remained unaltered in Norway. In Sweden, the observed increase in all-cause mortality during Covid-19 was partly due to a lower than expected mortality preceding the epidemic and the observed excess mortality, was followed by a lower than expected mortality after the first Covid-19 wave. This may suggest mortality displacement.
 

modeltrains

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This too may be of interest,
Martin Kulldorff, PhD, explains the standard Sweden uses to collect data on the country's seemingly high COVID-19 mortality.
.... Sweden has been compared negatively to neighboring countries like Norway based on the "nordic" label, despite substantial population differences between them. Norway, for example, has half of the population of Sweden. But what else plays a role? How does Sweden calculate deaths from COVID-19?

Also on page,
Bhopal’s recent article, COVID-19 zugzwang: Potential public health moves towards population immunity, was published in Public Health in Practice. Public Health in Practice is an official journal of the Royal Society for Public Health and a sister journal of Public Health.
The article offers that scientific inquiry around various SARS-CoV-2 interventions has been frustrated by an unappealing mix of competing ethical priorities societies face, alongside political battles and terms like “herd immunity.”
 

modeltrains

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Thanks. And about that...
The disease is taking so many from us, and even many who don't die suffer terribly either directly from the disease, or the disruption it causes.
It was interesting this morning at our in-person creative writers group weekly meeting at a local bake shop.
Were 5 of us there today and we got off on a long tangent about covid while visiting at the beginning.
Were 4 of us who leaned right politically and one who leaned left.

Was interesting with the left leaning person and I trying to bring understanding to the the others that covid is a serious deal.
It can do quite a bit of damage with the, what might be termed (at least by me) "nuclear option" immune response it can instigate, and the tissue and organ inflammation it can likewise instigate.

It was mixed scary, funny, and satisfying, when our left leaning member a couple times gestured toward me and would say a thing along the lines of, "and for people like our high risk member here ..."
And the others would look at me,
And I would say, "Yep, and as well as that ..."

And while I'm in the mood to include things which might be of relevant interest,

Published: 15 October 2020 ... Discussion
We reviewed published literature between January 1st, 2000 and June 30th, 2020, excluding articles focusing on pediatric or obstetric population, with a focus on virus-host interactions and immunological mechanisms responsible for virus associated cytokine release syndrome (CRS). COVID-19 illness encompasses three main phases. In phase 1, SARS-CoV-2 binds with angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE)2 receptor on alveolar macrophages and epithelial cells, triggering toll like receptor (TLR) mediated nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-ƙB) signaling. It effectively blunts an early (IFN) response allowing unchecked viral replication. Phase 2 is characterized by hypoxia and innate immunity mediated pneumocyte damage as well as capillary leak. Some patients further progress to phase 3 characterized by cytokine storm with worsening respiratory symptoms, persistent fever, and hemodynamic instability. Important cytokines involved in this phase are interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α. This is typically followed by a recovery phase with production of antibodies against the virus. We summarize published data regarding virus-host interactions, key immunological mechanisms responsible for virus-associated CRS, and potential opportunities for therapeutic interventions.
 

SCooke123

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Hopefully Flyfalcon will forego a hospital visit if he ever has the need to go to one and let that space and the personnel needed focus on someone who truly wants treatment - that way he can become one of the disposibles he doesn't seem to care about.

BTW - my mother passed away at 90 several years ago and I would give anything to have been able to celebrate 1 more year with her - how dare you trivialize a person's worth! NO life should care a price tag on it.
 

Devin Batten

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My thinking may be "young and naïve", but this whole situation is showing what a lot of people say about my generation. There is a lack of personal responsibility in society as a whole. Blaming the government for "not reacting fast enough", "not providing enough to those hurting financially", "not helping small businesses", etc is futile. Where do we place the blame on ourselves? Everytime I leave my residence for "essential buisness" I take on the risk of contracting this disease and possibly dying from it (.15% chance but a chance nonetheless). I am willing to take that risk, If you are concerned about your well-being then take the precautions. Even the most remote towns have delivery services that further remove you from the rest of the population. We need to stop placing our lives into the hands of "the gov'ment" and take responsibility for ourselves.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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One clue that this is more serious than other illnesses like flu or anything else we usually run into is that we don’t ordinarily see tent hospitals being built in our medical center parking lots to handle the excess patients or refrigerator truck “mobile morgues” parked out back to handle the excess corpses. You don’t need statistics to tell that’s unusual.

On the topic of lockdowns and stay at home orders, for me personally, it really doesn’t restrict anything I want to do right now. I understand that the concern is mostly about businesses being forced to close and the economic impact on them, but I really think the main impact to businesses is due to customers not wanting to take risks. The restaurants and bars could all open up, and I still wouldn’t go. And I love restaurants and bars, and my wife and I usually ate out several times a week. I haven’t been to a restaurant since mid-March. And I’m not going until a safe number of people have been vaccinated, probably next April or May. There are lots of things I’m not doing that I usually enjoy very much.
 

KC3KNM

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My thinking may be "young and naïve", but this whole situation is showing what a lot of people say about my generation. There is a lack of personal responsibility in society as a whole. Blaming the government for "not reacting fast enough", "not providing enough to those hurting financially", "not helping small businesses", etc is futile. Where do we place the blame on ourselves? Everytime I leave my residence for "essential buisness" I take on the risk of contracting this disease and possibly dying from it (.15% chance but a chance nonetheless). I am willing to take that risk, If you are concerned about your well-being then take the precautions. Even the most remote towns have delivery services that further remove you from the rest of the population. We need to stop placing our lives into the hands of "the gov'ment" and take responsibility for ourselves.
Not everyone has the option to stay home if they don't feel safe, nor can everyone afford to have things delivered to them. There's quite a few people who were barely making ends meet before the pandemic, do we just let them suffer? As someone else mentioned earlier in this thread "I've got mine" so it's all good, right? ;)

Do you pay taxes? I find it frustrating that the "gov'ment" continues to bail out bankers and corporations yet it's an insane notion that the government helps its citizens during a pandemic. Sure, let's take our lives back out of the hands of the government... but I'd also like the taxes I've paid in back as well in that case.

I do agree with the lack of personal responsibility in society, however I feel that's more related to not wearing a mask in public to protect those around you than it is to blaming the government for leaving people hanging after enacting lock downs.


“It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.” The government deserves no blame. :)
 
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boatgeek

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According to our county health commissioner, they aren't seeing many cases they can trace to restaurants. He has said that almost all of the cases are traced to private gatherings indoors where people have their guard down, aren't wearing masks or engaging in any social distancing.

If this is true, because of the issues someone linked earlier about people lying to contact tracers it might not be, it seems like the methods restaurants have been using like seating every other table and limiting party size are working. Let them stay open if they aren't shown to be contributing to the spread of this disease.

Of course we need people to be honest with the health department, wear their masks when possible, and follow the best practice guidelines in order to keep as many public spaces open as possible.
That may be true locally, but the CDC says that going to establishments with eating and drinking on site is a significant risk factor. People who test positive who have not been in close contact with a known case are several times more likely to have been to an in-person bar or restaurant than people who tested negative.
 
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