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afadeev

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BABAR said:
The logical chain of careers to presidency would be mayor, county supervisor, governor, president.
Is that a logical chain or a logical bubble?
🤔
I would say that much like a genetic species develops destructive dysfunctions from inbreeding so does the governmental/political species.
You mean that the most qualified person to be a CEO of a company is anyone other than someone who had worked in that industry?
The best doctor is the one who hasn't practiced medicine before?
The best airline pilot is the one who has never flown a plane, but has tipped the crew before, as a passenger?

Because experience == inbreeding, right?
Wait a second, you may have stumbled on a way to make Capitalism work better - lets institute mandatory firing of all mangers and executives of all industries who have more than 8 years of experience!
Off with all that competency, industry knowledge, experience, and track record of performance!

Seriously, though, would you want to replace the CEO of the company you work, with some rich parent's kid who likes to BS a lot, has gone bankrupt five times recently, and is sexually obsessed with his own daughter!?
Do tell!

a
 

modeltrains

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And your words in that post are a yet another Exhibit A of how neurotypicals mock and ridicule us autistics and then pat themselves on their own backs for their cleverness in doing so.
 

afadeev

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And your words in that post are a yet another Exhibit A of how neurotypicals mock and ridicule us autistics and then pat themselves on their own backs for their cleverness in doing so.
Please don't excuse your reluctance to think logically by playing a disability card.

I find that even Fox News, which claims to be "neutral" tends to lean more left than I like to see (which is probably because most of the staff live in the NY area/NE, which tends to be a strongly leftist/statist region).
I don't know if any independent third party that would claim Fox is "neutral":

... including Fox News itself:
.

In the end, perceived bias is in the eye of the beholder I guess.
True.
Out of idle curiosity, if Fox is too left leaning for you, what is your preferred news source?
OAN?
RT?
:dontknow:
 

Buckeye

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Covid-19 house party. What could go wrong?

Nothing will go wrong. A bunch of frat boys will have no symptoms and a few will have the sniffles, just like Alabama:

I ask this semi-seriously. If this asymptomatic transmission is so dangerous, why isn't every Walmart cashier (and all other essential workers) dead by now?

More evidence of hysterical case counts: 1043 positive tests, yet zero hospitalizations at UA.

Everywhere else this has hit, spikes in hospitalizations lagged spikes in positive tests by 1-2 weeks.
OK, I am still waiting for the outcome of the 1043 positive cases at Alabama in late August. Where is the reporting of the resulting devastating hospitalizations and deaths? The drive-by media whips up the frenzy over meaningless "cases" in one place, and then moves on to the next.
 

Marc_G

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Nothing will go wrong. A bunch of frat boys will have no symptoms and a few will have the sniffles, just like Alabama:





OK, I am still waiting for the outcome of the 1043 positive cases at Alabama in late August. Where is the reporting of the resulting devastating hospitalizations and deaths? The drive-by media whips up the frenzy over meaningless "cases" in one place, and then moves on to the next.
A good friend of one of my college buddies is currently in a hospital with a tube in his throat because he and his wife helped their daughter move into her college dorm. They noted how flippant the college kids were about precautions at the time then both came down sick a few days later after returning home. The mother is still sick but not in danger at the moment, the dad is touch and go. Some signs of improvement, he may be lucky.

While the majority of cases of college kids getting Covid are nonthreatening, when they do get infected they pose a risk to everyone around them.
 

Marc_G

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As we prepare this week to cross over 200,000 US deaths due to COVID-19, my mind boggles that some people still don't get just how serious this thing is and how every one of us must remain vigilant in public.
 

afadeev

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As we prepare this week to cross over 200,000 US deaths due to COVID-19, my mind boggles that some people still don't get just how serious this thing is and how every one of us must remain vigilant in public.
One would only say that if one was not a true believer in QAnon, and didn't put one's full faith in the wisdom of our political leader desperately flailing at his re-election bid (and again holding mask-free indoor rallies).

If only you were a little more gullible, you would jump onboard the "Covid-19 myths are merging with the QAnon conspiracy theory" train:
 

boatgeek

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OK, I am still waiting for the outcome of the 1043 positive cases at Alabama in late August. Where is the reporting of the resulting devastating hospitalizations and deaths? The drive-by media whips up the frenzy over meaningless "cases" in one place, and then moves on to the next.
TL;DR: Estimate of 5-15 deaths from 1000 positive cases without accounting for those 1000 cases spreading the virus to more people.

Alabama stopped reporting hospitalizations 2-3 weeks ago, so it's hard to say what the hospitalization numbers are. I was all ready to write up a piece about how you wouldn't see deaths yet, then I looked at the data again. I like 91-DIVOC for this because it's easy to chart out things. Unfortunately, they only have state-level data, so you have to extrapolate a little. What I found that was surprising is that new deaths/day spiked at right about the same time as new cases. At that time, 15% or so of tests were coming back positive, so they were probably only testing sicker patients. So, to the numbers:

2 weeks ago, Alabama's 7-day rolling average was seeing about 1500 new cases/day. At the same time, they were seeing a peak of 25 new deaths/day. Currently, they're around 1000 new cases and 10 new deaths/day. A possible confounding issue is that there was a peak of around 2000 new cases/day about 50 days ago, so that peak in deaths happening at the same time as the spike in cases may just be coincidental. Any way you look at it, 1500-2000 cases/day leads to 25 deaths/day in the general population, which is pretty much dead on Alabama's case fatality ratio being in the 1%-2% range depending on when you look. So the 1000 cases on campus would be expected to lead to 10-20 deaths if they were in the general population. College students tend younger and less likely to die, so you could knock that estimate down a little. Of course, that also doesn't account for the number of people that those 1000 positive cases spread the virus to. See Wedding, Maine for how far an outbreak can spread from a single gathering. TL;DR for that: 134 cases and 3 deaths (and counting) from a 62-person wedding where one or more people was positive.

Of course, this is largely based on state-level data. If you have any data sources for county level, by all means feel free to do the work and prove me wrong.
 

dr wogz

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Here is a report on forced changes to CDC reporting to go along with "playing down" narrative of COVID-19:

i thought the CDC (and WHO) are now / have been proven as "fake" agencies..
 

Bill S

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Certainly the WHO is in the sock puppet for the Chinese, but the CDC? No opinion there. :)
 

Flyfalcons

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TL;DR: Estimate of 5-15 deaths from 1000 positive cases without accounting for those 1000 cases spreading the virus to more people.

Alabama stopped reporting hospitalizations 2-3 weeks ago, so it's hard to say what the hospitalization numbers are. I was all ready to write up a piece about how you wouldn't see deaths yet, then I looked at the data again. I like 91-DIVOC for this because it's easy to chart out things. Unfortunately, they only have state-level data, so you have to extrapolate a little. What I found that was surprising is that new deaths/day spiked at right about the same time as new cases. At that time, 15% or so of tests were coming back positive, so they were probably only testing sicker patients. So, to the numbers:

2 weeks ago, Alabama's 7-day rolling average was seeing about 1500 new cases/day. At the same time, they were seeing a peak of 25 new deaths/day. Currently, they're around 1000 new cases and 10 new deaths/day. A possible confounding issue is that there was a peak of around 2000 new cases/day about 50 days ago, so that peak in deaths happening at the same time as the spike in cases may just be coincidental. Any way you look at it, 1500-2000 cases/day leads to 25 deaths/day in the general population, which is pretty much dead on Alabama's case fatality ratio being in the 1%-2% range depending on when you look. So the 1000 cases on campus would be expected to lead to 10-20 deaths if they were in the general population. College students tend younger and less likely to die, so you could knock that estimate down a little. Of course, that also doesn't account for the number of people that those 1000 positive cases spread the virus to. See Wedding, Maine for how far an outbreak can spread from a single gathering. TL;DR for that: 134 cases and 3 deaths (and counting) from a 62-person wedding where one or more people was positive.

Of course, this is largely based on state-level data. If you have any data sources for county level, by all means feel free to do the work and prove me wrong.
Just looking at the WA state numbers for age demographics, if 1,000 students get infected then maybe 1 of them will die. Maybe. The CFR is so wildly different depending on age.
 

kuririn

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Just looking at the WA state numbers for age demographics, if 1,000 students get infected then maybe 1 of them will die. Maybe. The CFR is so wildly different depending on age.
And how many elderly family members will they spread it to?
Remember when you were in college? I do.
Horrors.
 

OverTheTop

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The numbers in our state are coming down. First day with no deaths today for about two months. Moving average is currently 52 cases per day and falling. We have strict lockdown and curfew. No travel more than 5km from home except for exempted workers and medical/caring/essential shopping.

Given the low numbers they will ease off restrictions in the next couple of weeks.
 

afadeev

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Buckeye,
You seam to be repeatedly implying that Americans have stopped dying form CV19, and it's all been honky-dory from mid June (in MI, AL, etc).
All based on the graph from a fly-by-night web site that was just registered on 2020-09-02.

If I misunderstood your pitch, kindly do clarify.
If your point is that the US death rate is no longer anything we need to worry about, feel free to explain away the actual daily deaths stats, with a 7-day moving average, below:
Clipboard01.jpg

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Certainly the WHO is in the sock puppet for the Chinese, but the CDC? No opinion there. :)
The aliens, obviously ;)

It's not like our Prez didn't apply his usual hiring standards to filling the CDC Director position: https://www.theatlantic.com/science...ctor-is-experienced-but-controversial/556202/

So yeah, I blame the aliens.
I'm sure there is a conspiracy theory that justifies this random hypothesis, somewhere.
:blowingbubbles:
 

dr wogz

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I wonder when the WHO became a Chinese sock puppet? this year? the last 4? the last 10? always were?!

Do other countries also regard the WHO as the same sock puppet? I know our chief health officer (Dr. Tam) was labeled a "Chinese sympathizer" by an MP, but that was quickly rebuked.. (She is Chinese, Hong Kong actually..)

Why is it always the right who seem to propagate these rumors? these conspiracies?!

 

cwbullet

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I wonder when the WHO became a Chinese sock puppet? this year? the last 4? the last 10? always were?!

Do other countries also regard the WHO as the same sock puppet? I know our chief health officer (Dr. Tam) was labeled a "Chinese sympathizer" by an MP, but that was quickly rebuked.. (She is Chinese, Hong Kong actually..)

Why is it always the right who seem to propagate these rumors? these conspiracies?!

I think in recent years they have made some question decision for political reasons. I am not sure I would say they are only puppet for China.
 

Bill S

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If one does some casual research, it becomes evident that China was instrumental in getting the head of the WHO elected, and he has made statements that could be seen as pro-Chinese . I can't fathom them not taking advantage of that to ensure that he doesn't embarass them (it being a really major thing in Asian cultures to save face).
 

boatgeek

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Being totally real here, all of the UN and major NGO agencies (WHO, IMF, Wold Bank, etc.) are political agencies and member states try to influence them in directions that help themselves. China used their influence at WHO but we have certainly done the same and will do again in the future. Or will if we remain members.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”
 

Tim51

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News from this side of the Atlantic - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson explaining why tighter Covid measures are to be re-introduced from tomorrow due to daily rate of 4900 new cases:
 

les

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Being totally real here, all of the UN and major NGO agencies (WHO, IMF, Wold Bank, etc.) are political agencies and member states try to influence them in directions that help themselves. China used their influence at WHO but we have certainly done the same and will do again in the future. Or will if we remain members.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”
Another thing to consider, at least for the WHO, is they do not have super authoritative powers. They are granted access to a country based that country's leadership allowing them in. They can't just show up and demand access and dictate what/how the country should do things. Imagine if they came here to the US (since we have the highest number of cases) and tried to tell us what we did wrong and how everyone MUST wear masks, social distance, etc? And if they "bash" that country too much they can also be ejected. This forces them to play politics in what they say. Does this make them a puppet? Or do they have to work with the government so they can stay in the country and get the critical data they need to work the problem? Just trying to consider things from the other side....
 

NateB

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One of my complaints about WHO is their embrace of traditional medicine that doesn't always rely on science to back it up. It can be a divisive issue since they don't want to be refused from countries who need assistance and they don't want to make people reluctant to seek help or admit to using traditional medical treatments. However, scientifically proven treatments should come first and only traditional methods which are proven to be effective should be promoted.
 
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