Quantcast

For those who think that the US (and possibly others) are overreacting to Coronavirus:

The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

afadeev

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Sep 21, 2017
Messages
1,301
Reaction score
553
I was bummed out when my kids' summer camps were cancelled earlier this summer all over NE (NJ, NY, CT - all cancelled summer camps).
I had many reservations about sending them to sleep-away camps, but limiting their menu of summer infotainment options felt a bit brutal as well. In the end, the local State governments made the choice for me.

Not so down South.
I certainly hope kids down South don't have parents, grandparents, or relatives with pre-existing conditions....

Saw this today: "Coronavirus sweeps summer camp, infects 82 campers, counselors and staff in Missouri"
"Dr. Randall Williams, director of the Missouri Department of Health, said Monday that his agency had no plans to shut down summer camps in the wake of the Missouri outbreak. "

"In Texas, dozens of campers and staffers who attended Pine Cove’s Christian camps have tested positive, and several weeks of camp were canceled after clusters of cases were discovered. That includes at least 76 cases in June linked to its overnight camp for teens in Southeast Texas near Columbus. The Ridge camp shut down for two weeks in June before reopening last week, Pine Cove spokeswoman Susan Andreone said. "
 
Last edited:

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
That is of interest as I live in central Missouri, my Mom is from Branson, and some extended family I have only occasional contact with reside in the region.
Though I have no children, this with them does bring to mind going back to school and current conversation about that.
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Curiosity and playing in Google led to finding this from Saint Louis, a few hundred miles from Branson; it may be of interest,

Guidance for Summer Camps and Youth Activities in the City of St. Louis for reopening safely.
 

Marc_G

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
6,435
Reaction score
556
Location
Indianapolis Metro Area
Today I stood down from my monthly club launch, to isolate myself from my fellow rocketeers as a precaution. My wife is a likely COVID-19 patient, hopefully on the recovery side of the equation. She still feels terrible but doesn't seem to be getting worse for now, fingers crossed.

Again, on social media (NextDoor), there is a raging argument about whether or not schools should open in the fall and whether or not parents should send their kids if the schools do open (here, online options are generally available for a wide swath of kids if parents choose it). This is predictable given the emotions around the issue, and I'll refrain from posting useless drivel here, but what really shocks me, and what is relevant to this thread, is that many people on there still say "The media is overblowing this thing."

What more does it take to convince people we are in a crisis here?
 

afadeev

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Sep 21, 2017
Messages
1,301
Reaction score
553
What more does it take to convince people we are in a crisis here?
How about some National leadership on an issue, with at least some elected officials working to mitigate and contain the problem, instead of suppressing, ignoring, and deflecting attention from it?
Just spit-balling here, but I bet it wouldn't hurt.

The real questions are:
  1. What are the chances a leader would grow a pair before the next election cycle?
  2. How many more avoidable deaths must the US citizens sacrifice to the belligerent negligence of the current leaders?
  3. How many decades will it take for the US to regain its leadership stature in the world, after this debacle?
:blowingbubbles:
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
and what is relevant to this thread, is that many people on there still say "The media is overblowing this thing."
Of course I don't have the data on where the people in that conversation are located though that conversation does bring to mind one heard somewhere in the last couple weeks about why there can be such a disconnect between local attitudes and media attitudes where media is headquartered in major metropolises & out here in farmland.
For instance, out here our county of 17,000 and some has twenty-some cases and the north side neighboring county of 10,000 and some has a single-digit number of cases with zero deaths in each.
The comment said that the urban reality the media is broadcasting is not the rural reality people are living outside of the cities and that is why the different attitude out here. Something like 30 to 40 total cases in 2 counties with a combined population just below 30,000 is an entirely different reality from NYC or Houston.
So, calling the one-one-thousandth infection rate locally a life-changing "stop the world" crisis is overblowing it, Here.
 
Last edited:

Marc_G

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
6,435
Reaction score
556
Location
Indianapolis Metro Area
Of course I don't have the data on where the people in that conversation are located though that conversation does bring to mind one heard somewhere in the last couple weeks about why there can be such a disconnect between local attitudes and media attitudes where media is headquartered in major metropolises & out here in farmland.
For instance, out here our county of 17,000 and some has twenty-some cases and the north side neighboring county of 10,000 and some has a single-digit number of cases with zero deaths in each.
The comment said that the urban reality the media is broadcasting is not the rural reality people are living outside of the cities and that is why the different attitude out here. Something like 30 to 40 total cases in 2 counties with a combined population just below 30,000 is an entirely different reality from NYC or Houston.
So, calling the one-one-thousandth infection rate locally a life-changing "stop the world" crisis is overblowing it, Here.
This is an important and appreciated perspective. It's easy for the 75- 80% of us that live in urban/suburban areas to lose track of the fact that things are less dire in the rural areas.
 

NateB

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
1,062
Reaction score
715
Location
NE Indiana
This is an important and appreciated perspective. It's easy for the 75- 80% of us that live in urban/suburban areas to lose track of the fact that things are less dire in the rural areas.
Less at risk, yes, but not immune. One of our worst clusters up here is in a rural area among some Amish communities.
 

boatgeek

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
2,730
Reaction score
1,152
This is an important and appreciated perspective. It's easy for the 75- 80% of us that live in urban/suburban areas to lose track of the fact that things are less dire in the rural areas.
Less at risk, yes, but not immune. One of our worst clusters up here is in a rural area among some Amish communities.
In WA, the largest outbreaks by population (cases/10K residents) are in four relatively rural counties. They are #8, #10, #14, and #31 by population of WA's 39 counties. The largest one has about 250K residents, about 10% of the population of the biggest county in WA. The badly affected counties are largely agricultural, but they have significant fruit and meat packing businesses. I suspect, but don't know for certain, that farmworker housing is a big factor in how quickly the virus spreads. What's sad about that is that my grandmother was a county health officer in one of those counties more than 50 years ago, and they had issues with inadequate farmworker housing then.

So it's definitely an issue in big cities, but the virus will find dense groups of people even in rural areas.
 

Matt_The_RocketMan

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
722
Reaction score
101
Location
Houston TX
in all context i think the US is the only country that tests more and more people just to have people paid for the mass panic its causes. I really have not heard any other country dramatize a virus like this even though the fatality rate is less than 5% for those who catch it. Now if this was the Bubonic Plague yes god help us all, let anyone groan and moan about that pandemic.
So overall USA people need to "Suck it up buttercup."
 

CalebJ

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Jan 20, 2020
Messages
410
Reaction score
233
Do you have a basis for this idea that we're testing just to create panic?

And you're okay with a 5% rate if you're symptomatic?
 

Marc_G

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
6,435
Reaction score
556
Location
Indianapolis Metro Area
in all context i think the US is the only country that tests more and more people just to have people paid for the mass panic its causes. I really have not heard any other country dramatize a virus like this even though the fatality rate is less than 5% for those who catch it. Now if this was the Bubonic Plague yes god help us all, let anyone groan and moan about that pandemic.
So overall USA people need to "Suck it up buttercup."
We are testing more and more people because they are feeling sick and need data to make decisions about whether or not they have to stay home from work, enter quarantine, not visit grandma, or in some cases to guide treatment. Look at the test positivity rates skyrocketing now. It's not just a media hysteria exercise.

Most other countries got it under control and just are mopping up now so have little need for mass testing. We had a weak and delayed response so are now paying the price.
 

Matt_The_RocketMan

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 7, 2019
Messages
722
Reaction score
101
Location
Houston TX
I do actually have a question though. Is it better to have COVID-19 just to have an immunity or not to have it giving that you will take a lot of precautions not to get it? Almost like when kids get small pox and other parents try to get their kids sick so that they have an immunity... Could we just do this ?
 

Marc_G

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
6,435
Reaction score
556
Location
Indianapolis Metro Area
Please look up the difference between chicken pox and small pox. One is itchy and annoying as a kid though generally not life threatening but dangerous for adults. The other killed wide swaths of the living population. Pre-vaccine, chickenpox parties made sense.

Covid-19 kills something like a percent of everyone who gets it. If God offered you a choice of putting a gun to your head with a 1% chance of killing yourself, with a promise that you wouldn't die of gun violence for the rest of your life, would you pull the trigger?

This of course doesn't address the non death harms of the disease but is thought provoking.
 

boatgeek

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
2,730
Reaction score
1,152
I do actually have a question though. Is it better to have COVID-19 just to have an immunity or not to have it giving that you will take a lot of precautions not to get it? Almost like when kids get small pox and other parents try to get their kids sick so that they have an immunity... Could we just do this ?
COVID appears to come with a long list of long-term side symptoms, from annoying (incontinence) to severe (blood clots, heart disease, lung damage, and strokes). I think the jury is still out as to how long the immunity will last, since we're already seeing noticeable mutations in the virus. There are also lots of stories about people who went to COVID parties and got sick and died. While I believe that the total number of people in those stories is relatively small, there are likely more people than are being reported, too.

Before going to a COVID party, think about the following to make a more informed decision:
  • There's a small chance COVID could kill you if you are over age 15 or so. The older you are and the more underlying health problems you have, the greater that chance is.
  • How many people do you have contact with on a regular basis? If you catch COVID, you might spread it to others in your life such as friends and family before you develop symptoms. Are those friends and family high risk?
  • Do you have the resources to stay home and completely out of contact with everyone else (family, delivery drivers, neighbors, retail workers, etc.) for 2-4 weeks? If you don't, you are putting others at risk.
Not worth it for me. But land of the
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Not here in the US, so the mileage may vary; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...inds-no-evidence-coronavirus-spreads-schools/

The study, the largest carried out on schoolchildren and teachers in Germany, found traces of the virus in fewer than 1 per cent of teachers and children.
Scientists from Dresden Technical University said they believe children may act as a “brake” on chains of infection.
Prof Reinhard Berner, the head of pediatric medicine at Dresden University Hospital and leader of the study, said the results suggested the virus does not spread easily in schools. “It is rather the opposite,” Prof Berner told a press conference. “Children act more as a brake on infection. Not every infection that reaches them is passed on.”
The study tested 2,045 children and teachers at 13 schools — including some where there have been cases of the virus. But scientists found antibodies in just 12 of those who took part.
 

OverTheTop

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
4,131
Reaction score
1,344
Location
Melbourne Australia
It is interesting that in Israel they think school is one of the major spreading points:
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
It is interesting that in Israel they think school is one of the major spreading points:
Yes, I saw that yesterday and when put with the contrasting Germany article it ties in with what I'm in the process of posting right now.
3 takes on dealing with uncertainty
Professors offer insights from their fields amid COVID and efforts to reopen safely

In this time of profound uncertainty, society can be sure of one thing: more uncertainty. The seemingly opaque path forward for us, individually and collectively, was the Gazette’s topic with three Harvard professors who shared insights into how uncertainty is viewed in their fields, and the surprising ways in which it’s not necessarily a bad thing.

And, no, I don't know why this lettering is coming out larger.
 
Last edited:

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Perhaps of interest though more about entire planet than just the US? https://gcaptain.com/itf-tells-seafarers-to-stop-work-as-crew-change-deadline-passes/
The International Maritime Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) has taken the unprecedented step of telling the world’s seafarers to stop working if their employment contracts have expired and they are awaiting repatriation home.

The move from the ITF and its affiliated unions comes after months of calls on governments to designate seafarers as ‘key workers’ and exempt them from COVID-19 travel restrictions.

The inability to conduct regular crew changes has emerged as one the most critical issues facing the global shipping industry amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Each month, more than 100,000 seafarers are subject to crew change in order to comply with international maritime regulations governing safe working hours and crew welfare. However, in the early months of the pandemic, flag states requested to extend employment contracts and certificates in order to keep trade flowing.

Although some countries have moved to facilitate crew changes, an estimated 200,000 seafarers still remain stuck at sea, working on expired contracts while caught up crisis.

The escalating crisis has largely remained a safety and humanitarian issue, but shipping experts have warned for months that the issue could quickly escalate into a crisis disruptive to global trade.
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Okay, so, what is this thing's incubation period, really, anyway?
(Bold text in paragraph added by me)

BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE 07-14-2020 07:20:12
Argentina's health officials have a mystery to contend with: almost every member of the crew of the trawler Echizen Maru has contracted COVID-19, despite the fact that the ship has been continually at sea for more than a month.

In late May, long before the vessel set sail, the Echizen Maru's 61 crewmembers took a COVID-19 test in the Argentine capital of Buenos Aires and tested negative. They boarded a plane and flew to Ushuaia, where they entered a 14-day quarantine period at a hotel.

Weeks after they put out to sea, some individuals began to show COVID-like symptoms, and the Echizen Maru returned to port. Fully 57 out of 61 crewmembers tested positive; of the remaining four, two individuals are awaiting test results. Two individuals were hospitalized with COVID-related illness after an onboard medical exam by local public health officials.

As the maximum incubation period for COVID-19 is widely believed to be about 14 days, the case raises interesting questions for epidemiologists.
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
One more perhaps of interest,
Safeguarding the Maritime Transportation System during Covid-19
ByRear Adm. Richard V. Timme, U.S. Coast Guard Assistant Commandant for Prevention Policy on April 13, 2020

And speaking of the transportation system,


(as it happens, I live in a farm town along a river which gets only occasional barge traffic)
 

Marc_G

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
6,435
Reaction score
556
Location
Indianapolis Metro Area
Among the most disturbing things I've ever seen:


To be fair, I have no problem with HHS getting copies of the data. Frankly more oversight is better; there have been all kinds of data issues including recent Florida stuff. But cutting CDC out of the loop is not ok, no how no way.

This appears to be an attempt to wrest control of the data for political purposes.
 

afadeev

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Sep 21, 2017
Messages
1,301
Reaction score
553
Less at risk, yes, but not immune. One of our worst clusters up here is in a rural area among some Amish communities.
Definitely true, based on personal observations.

Way back in April I drove through PA and was alarmed by a near total refusal to wears masks or practice any forms of epidemiological control.
The other day, we went on a puppy adoption expedition into rural PA Amish country. This time around- all gas stations, fast food places, and rural shops were staffed and visited by locals wearing masks, and acting responsibly.

The further away one drove from the populated areas, the more "devil may care" attitudes resurfaced. By the time we got to the Amish farms, no-one was wearing masks (or shoes).

a

P.S.: As a side note, since CV19 hit, there has been a spike in dog adoptions (people stuck at homes, etc), so all local shelters are barren, and all for-pay adoptions operations have doubled if not tripled their prices.
P.S.: Dog adoption prices have finally started coming down, but still well above the historical averages.
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Hey, that's an idea,
MTA Metro-North Railroad has reconfigured vending machines at 12 stations throughout its commuter rail system to allow customers to purchase PPE (personal protective equipment) KN95 masks, bottled hand sanitizer and gloves at the machines starting July 10, though “free masks and hand sanitizer are still being distributed at stations and on trains for any rider that needs them,” the agency said.
 

Off Grid Gecko

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2020
Messages
275
Reaction score
117
Location
Southern Missouri
Definitely true, based on personal observations.

Way back in April I drove through PA and was alarmed by a near total refusal to wears masks or practice any forms of epidemiological control.
The other day, we went on a puppy adoption expedition into rural PA Amish country. This time around- all gas stations, fast food places, and rural shops were staffed and visited by locals wearing masks, and acting responsibly.

The further away one drove from the populated areas, the more "devil may care" attitudes resurfaced. By the time we got to the Amish farms, no-one was wearing masks (or shoes).

a

P.S.: As a side note, since CV19 hit, there has been a spike in dog adoptions (people stuck at homes, etc), so all local shelters are barren, and all for-pay adoptions operations have doubled if not tripled their prices.
P.S.: Dog adoption prices have finally started coming down, but still well above the historical averages.
I have some kitties that are 2 weeks old right now. They'll be ready for adoption in about six weeks if you want one. I'm thinking of doing a nominal $5 fee, not to make money, just to be sure that the person "adopting" them isn't going to be using them to train coon dogs.
 

John Kemker

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Aug 25, 2019
Messages
1,534
Reaction score
648
I have some kitties that are 2 weeks old right now. They'll be ready for adoption in about six weeks if you want one. I'm thinking of doing a nominal $5 fee, not to make money, just to be sure that the person "adopting" them isn't going to be using them to train coon dogs.
If only you were in Georgia. /sigh

New house, we're getting a kitten. I'm looking forward to it!
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
Hmm, interesting,

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume 97, P396-403, August 01, 2020
Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

Samia Arshad
Paul Kilgore
Zohra S. Chaudhry
William O’Neill
Marcus Zervos
Henry Ford COVID-19 Task Force
...
Conclusions and relevance
In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact.

Discussion
The results of this study demonstrate that in a strictly monitored protocol-driven in-hospital setting, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In this study, among one of the largest COVID-19 hospital patient cohorts (n = 2,541) assembled in a single institution, overall in-hospital COVID-19 associated mortality was 18.1% reflecting a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions in COVID-19 patients admitted to our institution. The independent predictors of mortality in our study included age ≥65 years, CKD, and severe illness at initial presentation as measured by the oxygen saturation levels on admission, and ventilator use reflect findings similar to those reported in earlier studies (Rio and Malani, 2020
). These predictors also underscore the high-risk for COVID-19 experienced by residents in our hospital catchment population in Metropolitan Detroit, Michigan. Michigan is among the states with the highest number of cases of COVID-19 and deaths. In Detroit, our residents suffer from substantial preexisting social and racial health disparities that place our patients at increased risk of severe disease and higher mortality (CDC, 2020).

In the present study, multivariate analysis performed using Cox regression modeling and propensity score matching to control for potential confounders affirmed that treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine in combination with azithromycin was associated with higher survival among patients with COVID-19. Patients that received neither medication or azithromycin alone had the highest cumulative hazard. The benefits of hydroxychloroquine in our cohort as compared to previous studies maybe related to its use early in the disease course with standardized, and safe dosing, inclusion criteria, comorbidities, or larger cohort. The postulated pathophysiology of COVID-19 of the initial viral infection phase followed by the hyperimmune response suggest potential benefit of early administration of hydroxychloroquine for its antiviral and antithrombotic properties. Later therapy in patients that have already experienced hyperimmune response or critical illness is less likely to be of benefit. Others have shown that COVID-19 hospitalized patients are not diagnosed in the community and often rapidly deteriorate when hospitalized with fulminant illness (Mc McCullough and Arunthamakun, 2020).
 

modeltrains

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2011
Messages
1,111
Reaction score
88
If the coronavirus is really airborne, we might be fighting it the wrong way:
That bit of content,
We need to ... and keep density on public transport low, or open windows.
Has me wondering how many modern public transport vehicles here in the US even HAVE open-able windows?
I know Amtrak train cars don't, city buses in nearest city don't.
 
Top