For those who think that the US (and possibly others) are overreacting to Coronavirus:

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hobie1dog

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One of my best friends died this week after finding a 1.5CM cancerous brain tumor 3 weeks ago. They had a service for him at the local funeral home. I told his daughter that there was no way that I could attend after the 6 guys died from attending their buddies funeral in SC who died from the virus. Then the 17 people in the UK who got the virus from attending the funeral of the elderly lady in the family. Hugs, handshakes, tears, etc. is a disaster waiting to happen. Anyone who thinks this is something to shrug off should be made to spend a day in a hospital Covid-19 Ward.
 

NateB

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On this and other forums people seemed surprised that so little capacity in ICU goes to COVID-19
It is also important to remember that most Covid-19 patients do not require ICU care. We have the ICU capacity for the sickest of the sick and patients who only need non-invasive means of ventilation or certain types of medications are being cared for on medical floors or progressive/step-down units. These are still a large amount of beds being used for 1 disease process.

These terms may not mean anything to some of you, but hospital units are tiered by the type of care the staff is trained and allowed to provide. ICUs aren't equal from hospital to hospital either. An ICU at a community hospital might provide comparable care to the progressive unit at a tertiary hospital. Areas with higher acuity have higher trained staff and lower patient to staff ratios. In higher acuity areas, nurses and RTs have protocols to adjust medications and vent settings without doctor's orders and the physician is usually some type of specialist rather than a GP. On the lower acuity floors, one nurse might have 5 or 6 patients and needs to check with the doctor before making any med changes. Typically vented patients aren't in these units.
 

modeltrains

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I'd say that falls solidly in the Hmm, interesting, category. https://www.technologynetworks.com/...-barcelona-waste-water-from-march-2019-336688

SARS-CoV-2 Traces Detected in Barcelona Waste Water From March 2019

News Jun 27, 2020 | Original story by the University of Barcelona

Please note, the study from University of Barcelona is a preprint and as such has not undergone peer review yet.

... COVID-19 cases hidden by the flu

Later, researchers analysed frozen samples from previous months to the systematic sampling, which revealed the growing apparition of SARS-CoV-2 genome between early January and early March in 2020, bringing the chronology of the coronavirus arrival in Spain even earlier: the presence of the virus was detected in January 15, 41 days before the announcement of the first case of COVID-19, which was announced on February 25.

According to the researchers, these results show the validity of the surveillance of waste waters to anticipate cases, specially considering the significant contribution of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers in the spreading of the virus. “Those infected with COVID-19 could have been diagnosed with flu in primary care by mistake, contributing to the community transmission before the public health took measures”, notes Albert Bosch, also president of the Spanish Society of Virology.

See also: Dutch Study Indicates Value of Sewage Monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 Tracking

...
Analysis of frozen samples from 2018 and 2019

These results encouraged the researchers to analyse some frozen samples between January 2018 and December 2019, with the shocking results of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genome in March 2019, before any notification of COVID-19 cases in the world. “All samples were negatives regarding the SARS-CoV-2 genome presence except for March 12, 2019, in which the levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive, using two different targets”, says the researcher.

“Barcelona receives many visitors for both tourist and professional reasons, –continues Bosch–, and it is possible for a similar situation to have taken place in other parts of the world, and since most of the COVID-19 cases show a similar symptomatology to the flu, those cases could have been disguised as an undiagnosed flu”.

Seems I'm not the only one who uses the word interesting, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUSKBN23X2HQ

The research has been submitted for a peer review.

Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions.

“When it’s just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem,” he said.

There was the potential for a false positive due to the virus’ similarities with other respiratory infections.

“But it’s definitely interesting, it’s suggestive,” Villalbi said.


 
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OverTheTop

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Our premier (equivalent of governor in the USA) has announced stay at home orders based on postcode due to a couple of major outbreaks:

So the only four reasons you are allowed to be out in those locations is shopping for food or essentials, education, care or caregiving and daily exercise. All restaurants and cafes there are back to takeaway only.

Putting some context on it is that it applies to about 310k people.

Some of this is due to bad luck and some due to ignoring social distancing. :(

Luckily I am not in an affected postcode.
 
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modeltrains

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So the only four reasons you are allowed to be out in those locations is shopping for food or essentials, education, care or caregiving and daily exercise. All restaurants and cafes there are back to takeaway only.
Was anything said about laundromats, for those of us apartment dwellers who have to do that for laundry?

Even though I'm not in Canada that is my situation and it is a concern.

Remember hearing on radio at the beginning of this in US some state's Governor specifically including laundromats in the places which could still operate during the lockdown. Might have been Illinois Governor.
 

dr wogz

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Mr. Trains, we did have the same during our lock down. Ours just got lifted this week. (Quebec is/was Canada's hot spot, and Montreal (Where i'm sitting now; a suburb actually) is Canada's hot spot.) I do believe Laundromats were included, as they are 'essential' and easy to not crowd / maintain a safe distance

We are still being encouraged not to go out 'for fun' but only if & when needed. While our transit system has enacted 'masks mandatory' it is highly recommended you wear one when out, when you cannot safely 'social distance'.

And yeah, some restaurants are starting to add 'covid fees' as they all slowly open.. $3 per person reported at one restaurant...
 

modeltrains

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Talking about covid fees I've not looked to see if the little cafe and craft store I go to about once a week here in our little riverbank county seat farm burg has added that fee. They did reduce their cafe seating by about half.
Usually go there for lunch on Saturday after our creative writers group meets at a little locally owned bake shop. Just recently became able to open to do that again. Have also not looked to see if they have added that fee.

Both those operations are literally mom and pop stores & want to support them to the extent practical.
So if they do add the fee I'll happily pay it.

There are only 4 places I've been going during this whole thing, Walmart, which has dry goods, groceries, gasoline; those 2 places now that they can do business again; and laundry.
Our county hospital, with attached Dr and PT clinics, in town closed abruptly in January due to financial mismanagement by those who bought it in 2018 so I've not even been to the doctor or physical therapy since then.

I'd like to be making fewer trips to Walmart but my messy health includes a couple things where the mitochondria, the "power houses of the cells" are now producing rather less of that power than they used to & I simply do not have the energy required to go do a couple weeks to a months shopping all at once.
And since Walmart won't let my 2 cats in to pull the cart for me, it all depends on me.

Fortunately the last time I looked a week or so ago our little burg still had only a single digit count of confirmed covid cases.
Wonder if that count would be higher if we still had the county hospital operational and drawing covid cases to it?
 

Marc_G

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Two good resources to report today:


Many great charts and analyses. Worth the time to watch.

Also this state-by-state Rt graph site:

 

cwbullet

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Two good resources to report today:


Many great charts and analyses. Worth the time to watch.

Also this state-by-state Rt graph site:

GA has a higher R value at the moment than that graph is listing.
 

Pat Gordzelik

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"For months, the Washington Post and the rest of the mainstream media kept a morbid Covid-19 “death count” on their front pages and at the top of their news broadcasts. The coronavirus outbreak was all about the number of dead. The narrative was intended to boost governors like Cuomo in New York and Whitmer in Michigan, who turned their states authoritarian under the false notion that destroying people’s jobs, freedom, and lives would somehow keep a virus from doing what viruses always do: spread through a population until eventually losing strength and dying out.

The “death count” was always the headline.

But then all of a sudden early in June the mainstream media did a George Orwell and lectured us that it is all about “cases” and has always been all about “cases.” Death, and especially infection fatality rate, were irrelevant. Why? Because from the peak in April, deaths had decreased by 90 percent and were continuing to crash. That was not terrifying enough so the media pretended this good news did not exist.

With massive increases in testing, the “case” numbers climbed. This is not rocket science: the more people you test the more “cases” you discover."

Let’s go back to the original measurements used to scare Americans into giving up their Constitutional liberties: the daily death numbers. Even though we know hospitals have falsely attributed countless deaths to “Covid-19” that were deaths WITH instead of FROM the virus, we are seeing actual deaths steadily declining over the past month and a half. Declining deaths are not a great way to push the “second wave” propaganda, so the media and politicians have moved the goal posts and decided that only “cases” are important. It’s another big lie.

Resist propaganda and defend your liberty. That is the only way we’ll get through this.
 

Pat Gordzelik

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My wife, a PHD in research pharmacy, who drills into alternative drugs. just gave me a high five. She did warn me, that my observations would be met with exteme discourse from those who march the govt party line propoganda.
I asked her, "who marches to that line? "
Her answer...."follow the money".
 

hobie1dog

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no matter what figures you look at, the numbers are skyrocketing around the country, and we haven't even peaked with the first wave yet.
 

Marc_G

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"For months, the Washington Post and the rest of the mainstream media kept a morbid Covid-19 “death count” on their front pages and at the top of their news broadcasts. The coronavirus outbreak was all about the number of dead. The narrative was intended to boost governors like Cuomo in New York and Whitmer in Michigan, who turned their states authoritarian under the false notion that destroying people’s jobs, freedom, and lives would somehow keep a virus from doing what viruses always do: spread through a population until eventually losing strength and dying out.

The “death count” was always the headline.

But then all of a sudden early in June the mainstream media did a George Orwell and lectured us that it is all about “cases” and has always been all about “cases.” Death, and especially infection fatality rate, were irrelevant. Why? Because from the peak in April, deaths had decreased by 90 percent and were continuing to crash. That was not terrifying enough so the media pretended this good news did not exist.

With massive increases in testing, the “case” numbers climbed. This is not rocket science: the more people you test the more “cases” you discover."

Let’s go back to the original measurements used to scare Americans into giving up their Constitutional liberties: the daily death numbers. Even though we know hospitals have falsely attributed countless deaths to “Covid-19” that were deaths WITH instead of FROM the virus, we are seeing actual deaths steadily declining over the past month and a half. Declining deaths are not a great way to push the “second wave” propaganda, so the media and politicians have moved the goal posts and decided that only “cases” are important. It’s another big lie.

Resist propaganda and defend your liberty. That is the only way we’ll get through this.
You're wife is right on one thing, there will probably be extreme discourse, because I'm taking the day off and have time to respond. ;)

If I read you right (please correct any misinterpretation), you seem to have the view that:
1. We should have just let the virus do it's thing, and that measures we took/could take in the future are futile; they didn't help
2. This means we shouldn't have shut down businesses, schools, etc.
3. The current surge in positive diagnosed cases is simply due to us doing a lot more testing, rather than there being more virus around
4. There isn't an increase in COVID-19 disease going on now and deaths aren't going to go up
5. Why bother masking or taking any steps; the virus will get us all eventually
6. This is all a intended to keep us afraid; apparently both parties are complicit and perhaps working together behind the scenes?

Am I wrong in suggesting you believe these things?

I'll start with this part direct from your text:

the false notion that destroying people’s jobs, freedom, and lives would somehow keep a virus from doing what viruses always do: spread through a population until eventually losing strength and dying out.
This is not just patently untrue; it's demonstrably untrue. In the age of modern medicine we keep viruses at bay through vaccinations, medications, and changes to our daily routines. We've stamped out smallpox virus and blunted influenza significantly. Measles only is an issue in specific spots because people don't get vaccinated. There are dozens of other examples. Today, in the modern world, we largely write our own destiny with regards to viral infection rather than let nature take its course. I can't see why anyone who can read would suggest otherwise. We have no vaccination yet for COVID-19, but do have improving medical treatments and many preventative measures to take. For example, wearing a mask when we go out. This seems to be the single biggest thing to do. Also, there is now a lot of data about how our varied responses around the world have impacted the spread. My favorite is from Peak Prosperity a few days ago:

1593702242513.png

Watch the video I linked and get a good footing. Much data is presented. Bottom line: the most important thing to do was to react quickly. Among other countries we reacted slowly and weakly and have had a high death rate per capita. Countries who fared the best reacted quickly. This meant lockdowns and wearing masks in public.

There are many people that don't understand that there were a lot of unknowns about the transmission of the disease, the conversion from infection to clinical case to deaths at the time in March, and the lockdown seemed the right thing to do. And it was because it broke the chain of infection. R values were up near 3 in most places, or at least 2, and nearly 4 in hotspots like NY City. You don't interrupt that with half measures. The R values started dropping (we now know, based on data collected at the time) before lockdowns, because people were ALREADY sheltering in place a lot and being more cautious. My workplace forced remote work for nonessential-on-site people two weeks before Indiana went into Lockdown, for example. But we didn't get to R values below 1 until we locked down and took other measures. See here: https://rt.live/ (note, it takes a while for data to get into it so the last week or so isn't reliable).

All the data points to widescale collapse of our healthcare system if we had not taken severe measures to break the chain of infection; look at the data for Indiana and you will see we were less than a week away from this. NYC was over the edge and pulled back only because of extraordinary efforts. Michigan, where Detroit was a hotspot, used super stringent methods and now is one of the best recovery stories in the US but even they, in the aftermath of opening up, are now seeing more infections and have an R>1 again and will need to appeal to people to just wear the damned masks.

There's lots of data showing masking works well to slow the rate of infections; google it. If we do that you will see we probably don't need to lock down again.

Also we didn't reduce deaths by 90%. Actually about 70-75%. Here are absolute daily deaths reported in Worldometers (again, the last week or so will be incomplete due to the time it takes for the reporting chain to happen in some places):

1593703113049.png

We peaked around 2200 deaths per day (7 day average to remove weekend periodicity in reporting), and we are now around 600 or so, or were a week ago which is pretty complete. If you compare this to places like Italy or France or Spain and you will see they stamped deaths out to a trickle. Same goes for most of Europe. They locked down hard and tight and got through it and now are just mopping up. And people wear masks there... No wonder they don't want travelers from the US to go there.

1593703424770.png


The surge in cases in the US isn't just because we are testing more, it's because we have more sick people with COVID-19. Check any of the reports in the emerging hotspot states or go on Chuck's thread in the Watering Hole. He's an Army doctor in Georgia and if you don't believe him there's not enough tinfoil in the world to keep you from hearing the voices.

Again, from Peak Prosperity:

1593703585716.png


First comes cases, then comes very sick people, then comes deaths. The US average has been declining, because lots of states like Indiana have a declining death rate. When looking at the US as a whole, these declines mask the emerging increases in the states shown above. Don't believe me? Check back in a month and look at how AZ, FL, SC, TX, GA, and CA are doing.

A lot of the new positives are in the young bar-hopper set; these folks probably won't die in great numbers, but within a month they will have taken the virus home to grandma, to work and gotten their bosses sick, and spread it to their customers. And to the folks they meet in the bars who keep the cycle going.

If you don't believe me, believe (dare I say it!) Trump!!

"Washington — After long resisting wearing a mask in public, President Trump said Wednesday he thinks it makes him look like the Lone Ranger - and he likes it.
"I'm all for masks. I think masks are good," Mr. Trump told Fox Business in an interview. "People have seen me wearing one.""

No way he would change his tune on this if even he weren't worried. Or, maybe he's the ringleader in the Orwellian conspiracy theory?
 

Marc_G

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Sad story here:


This part "makes me sick"

"A friend who was at the party reached out to Macias to say he had coronavirus, and he was aware of the diagnosis when he attended the gathering but didn't think he could infect anyone because he had no symptoms, Lopez said. "

With friends like these...
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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There’s a link between behaviors, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, but there is a lag time between each one, so not everyone makes the connection.

In the situation where a community decides things are under control and they are going to ”reopen” and there is a shift to riskier behavior, more people become infected, and after some time some of those new infections are detected and become diagnosed cases, a couple of weeks later some cases become hospitalizations, and a couple of weeks after that some of those hospitalizations end in deaths. The lag time means that a change to riskier behavior might not result in noticeable increases in deaths for a month or two, but by the time you realize it, the pipeline is full of cases that are one their way to dying.

We see that playing out right now in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and plenty of other places. Actions taken weeks or months ago are starting to be felt as consequences now, and that’s going to continue to get worse as cases already in the pipeline move forward.
 

dr wogz

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H_Rocket

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There’s a link between behaviors, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, but there is a lag time between each one, so not everyone makes the connection.
<snip>
We see that playing out right now in Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and plenty of other places. Actions taken weeks or months ago are starting to be felt as consequences now, and that’s going to continue to get worse as cases already in the pipeline move forward.
And the moment any of these states that are crowing about how well they have things contained begins to open up, they will get hit square betwixt the eyes. Until a vaccine is developed, this thing is not going anywhere. We have to decide if we want to keep things closed down until that happens and it is in full distribution.
 

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Tyeeking

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Until a vaccine is developed, this thing is not going anywhere. We have to decide if we want to keep things closed down until that happens and it is in full distribution.
Keep in mind there has never been a successful vaccine for any previous coronavirus.
 

Cl(VII)

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Keep in mind there has never been a successful vaccine for any previous coronavirus.
We’ve never tried this hard, or spent this much (money and mind share) on it before. The preliminary data looks as good as it could at this point. I’m willing to bet myself on it too. I will be trying to participate in either the Moderna or Pfizer trials.

I would bet on at least one successful P3 trial before eoy. With limited distribution starting shortly after and widely available by late spring.
 

kuririn

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Keep in mind there has never been a successful vaccine for any previous coronavirus.
There is a vaccine for SARS.
Excerpt:
"A SARS vaccine was developed in response to the 2002 outbreak, but was never sold since public health measures got the disease under control before it was ready."
 

kuririn

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There is also a MERS vaccine undergoing testing. Initial results are promising.
 

Tyeeking

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There is a vaccine for SARS.
Excerpt:
"A SARS vaccine was developed in response to the 2002 outbreak, but was never sold since public health measures got the disease under control before it was ready."
That is a stretch since it was never tested in humans. A rather important step in the process.

 

afadeev

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The “death count” was always the headline.
But then all of a sudden early in June the mainstream media did a George Orwell and lectured us that it is all about “cases” and has always been all about “cases.” Death, and especially infection fatality rate, were irrelevant. Why? Because from the peak in April, deaths had decreased by 90 percent and were continuing to crash.
As per usual 4Chan/8Chan paranoid dribble - a straw-man argument on full display.
How can you tell?
  • Zero facts, infinite conjecture, maximum emotions with references to Orwell, names of random politicians, and misquoting Constitution.
Dead giveaways:
  • Zero references to data sources.
  • False premise #1: "media" stopped reporting "deaths" and started reporting "cases".
    • Zero factual evidence that would substantiate such a claim; none are sited, as the claim is bogus.
    • Why? Nonsensical evidence is introduced to "justify" random conclusions, staying true to the classic straw-man argument format.
  • False premise #2: "Deaths have decreased by 90 percent and were continuing to crash."
    • Total BS. Others have already shared the data illustrating this fallacy.

What intrigues me is that this 90% claim is such an easy statistic to validate or disprove with rudimentary googling skills.
Make you wonder if the author made it up himself, or copy-pasted someone else's conspiracy theory claim without doing basic "it smells funny, let me google that" checks.
Not sure which one is worse, but both are painful to watch:
diving board face - small.jpg



With massive increases in testing, the “case” numbers climbed. This is not rocket science: the more people you test the more “cases” you discover."
  • False premise #3:
    • Easily dispelled, but only for people who are capable of following logical arguments:
 

afadeev

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Sad story here:


This part "makes me sick"

"A friend who was at the party reached out to Macias to say he had coronavirus, and he was aware of the diagnosis when he attended the gathering but didn't think he could infect anyone because he had no symptoms, Lopez said. "

With friends like these...
"Sad" is an under-statement of the season.

There have been multiple cases of people with AIDS (another virus) knowingly infecting others, and being prosecuted and convicted for recklessly and/or intentionally transmitting the deadly virus. Penalties vary by state, and range from under 10 years to life in prison.

In a few other states, similar circumstances led to charges and convictions for attempted murder:

When logic and goodwill (aka carrot) fail, it's time to incentive socially desirable behavior with aggressive application of the law (aka stick).
I bet it will take only a few public felony convictions of "I don't need to wear a mask, I want to party" idiots to have the desired effect.
 
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Pat Gordzelik

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Greetings friends and Sheila's!

(sheila's are what I call cowards who hide behind fake names and attempt to drown out voices of dissension).

Never did I say Covid 19 was not a deadly disease. It is, and worthy of concern. My position is and always will be that there are two sides of every discussion/debate. To see situations where a different point of view is drowned out, like was noted here by a
commentator, is indeed, painful. You will notice I do not quote what someone posted, I merely let my observations stand on there own merits.

For consideration is yet another observation for your review.

Science is one way humanity searches for truth. The Covid-19 panic and response are a direct assault on what remains of science. All of the hysteria and the political reaction to it are driven by models and projections, which are nothing more than hypotheses.
It is said that models are only as good as the underlying data and assumptions they incorporate, but that’s misleading. They may use the best available data and assumptions and still be wildly off the mark. For any model of a complex phenomenon—the weather, the climate, financial markets, or the progression of a disease—substitute “our best guess” for the word “model” and you have a better understanding of what the model actually is.
So here is a link of my observation. I must in all fairness warn any snowflakes out there
who believe they can harm, shame, beat me up, bang drums outside my door, chastise me on useless mediums like Twitter, Instagram, facebook, ad nauseam, that it is a futile gesture. I do not utilize mediums that produce nothing, add nothing to the human condition, nor reimburses me for time wasted.
Principia Scientific International is a self-sustaining community of impartial scientists from around the world deliberating, debating and publishing cutting-edge thinking on a range of issues without a preconceived idea of outcomes.
PSI has identified that there are currently two opposing methodologies at conflict:
Traditional scientific method: borne of the Age of Enlightenment and which gave rise to the technological advances of the industrial revolution.
Post-normalism:* pre-deterministic approach where policy and outcome dictate the kind of ‘science’ needed to justify it. Perceived as the most culpable purveyors of this modern malaise are national governments, NGO’s and big corporations.
PSI ASSOCIATES are steadfast in their support of the traditional scientific method as encapsulated in the ideas of Karl Popper. PSI opposes post-normalism and endeavors to provide society with an antidote (from the Greek αντιδιδοναι antididonai, “given against”) to the seemingly gargantuan and pervasive rise of post-normal science by way of our publishing, educational and media-focused materials and presentations. For, as Karl Popper advocated, any hypothesis that does not make testable predictions is simply not science. Such a hypothesis may be useful or valuable, but it cannot be said to be science.
 
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