For those who think that the US (and possibly others) are overreacting to Coronavirus:

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Speaknoevil

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I saw this comparison a while back and thought it was worth bringing forward. I don't really expect to change anyone's minds, but worth thinking about.

US Military deaths in various conflicts (from Wikipedia, if you have better sources, please advise)
Iraq War 2003-2011: 4,576
War of 1812: 15,000
Mexican-American War: 13,283
Revolutionary War: 25,000
Korean War: 36,574
Vietnam War: 58,209
WWI (combat only): 53,402
COVID-19: 96,184 as of today
WWI (all causes): 116,516
Civil War (combat only): 214,938
WWII (combat only): 291,557
WWII (all causes): 405,399
Civil War (all causes): 755,000

COVID-19 is going to pass WWI's US military casualties in the middle of June the way things are going right now.
Pales in comparison to the Spanish Flu at 675,000 U.S. deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
 

H_Rocket

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OK, the isolation activities seemed to have worked as intended. The curve was flattened and we needed few (if any) of the emergency field hospitals, convention centers, airport hangars, and so on. Does anyone have the meeting minutes where "flattening the curve" was changed to either "until further notice" or "until we have a vaccine and a treatment protocol"? I must have missed that meeting.
 

Buckeye

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OK, the isolation activities seemed to have worked as intended. The curve was flattened and we needed few (if any) of the emergency field hospitals, convention centers, airport hangars, and so on. Does anyone have the meeting minutes where "flattening the curve" was changed to either "until further notice" or "until we have a vaccine and a treatment protocol"? I must have missed that meeting.
Yeah, I missed that memo, too. The other flimsy excuse is to "prevent a second wave." This lack of transparency, ambiguous criteria, and simple power grabbing is where all the experts and government leaders lost all credibility.

Number of "cases" is irrelevant, but that is all you hear about. Number of "hospitalizations" is the important metric.
 

NateB

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Number of "cases" is irrelevant, but that is all you hear about. Number of "hospitalizations" is the important metric.
I agree completely. I asked my director why the hospital is keeping that number from being released and he didn't know, but agrees. I can say our system of hospitals has things under control, is resuming elective procedures and has room for more sick people. We aren't empty, but aren't overwhelmed any more.

Indiana's CDC released a percentage of ventilators and ICU beds available statewide, but that isn't transparent enough. I think this whole time if people knew their region's hospitals were over 100% capacity or sitting fine at 70% or 80%, they would be more receptive to the restrictive measures we took. We are loosing the PR battle because for some reason the powers that be don't want to release important information.
 
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Steve Shannon

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For our state the number of hospitalizations has been released daily. It’s currently at 3, and has been in single digits for weeks. Next week we enter Phase 2 of the “Big Sky Reopening.” If we continue at this rate we could make it to Phase 3 sometime during the summer.
 

Buckeye

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For our state the number of hospitalizations has been released daily. It’s currently at 3, and has been in single digits for weeks. Next week we enter Phase 2 of the “Big Sky Reopening.” If we continue at this rate we could make it to Phase 3 sometime during the summer.
Three. Seriously? Three? Montana should be in Phase-Nothing.
 

NateB

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I have already said I am optimistic about Indiana's reopening plan and managing this pandemic while keeping our hospitals from being overwhelmed. Our Governor moved forward and advanced the entire state except for the 3 hardest hit counties to the next phase of his plan.

We landed at a campground this afternoon and things looked "normal", except for us all having N-95s on. We had a crowd of around 100 onlookers with police and fire keeping them away from the LZ. None of that would be unusual without the recommendations for social distancing.

I'm still optimistic and still support our State's plan, but I hope people stay smart and we dont have a relapse. Most of us have cabin fever, being outside is great, just try to do it in smaller groups than what I saw today.
 

OverTheTop

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Looks like the virus might be able to lay dormant for a while...

"A passenger of the Ruby Princess who tested positive to coronavirus is suspected to have carried the "dormant" virus for almost 10 weeks before falling ill.
The woman was diagnosed in Cairns on Monday, taking the total number of Queensland cases to 1057, with just 12 remaining active.
Authorities suspect she is the latest coronavirus case to have carried the inactive virus and become sick weeks after exposure."
 

cwbullet

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Looks like the virus might be able to lay dormant for a while...

"A passenger of the Ruby Princess who tested positive to coronavirus is suspected to have carried the "dormant" virus for almost 10 weeks before falling ill.
The woman was diagnosed in Cairns on Monday, taking the total number of Queensland cases to 1057, with just 12 remaining active.
Authorities suspect she is the latest coronavirus case to have carried the inactive virus and become sick weeks after exposure."
There are other possibilities such as a false positive. The second test could have also been a false negative. The PCR test stinks and has a lot of false positives in those that are less symptomatic.
 

cwbullet

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That was my immediate thought. So many ways it could appear as it does.
Everyone focus on the most worrisome which is a dormant infection and not the most likely based ion the limits of the test.
 

Paulb06

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For our state the number of hospitalizations has been released daily. It’s currently at 3, and has been in single digits for weeks. Next week we enter Phase 2 of the “Big Sky Reopening.” If we continue at this rate we could make it to Phase 3 sometime during the summer.
It's easy to understand why Montana has fewer cases but I wish someone could satisfactorily explain the huge difference between New York and California....
 

cwbullet

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About a week’s difference in when they instituted stay at home orders. With a doubling time of 3.5 days, that makes a huge difference.
Stay at home orders timed right made all of the difference between these two states.
 

Paulb06

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About a week’s difference in when they instituted stay at home orders. With a doubling time of 3.5 days, that makes a huge difference.
California...March 19th.....New York....March 20th......Michigan....March 23rd.....Florida...April 1st....Texas... March 31st ???
 

Marc_G

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California...March 19th.....New York....March 20th......Michigan....March 23rd.....Florida...April 1st....Texas... March 31st ???
What really matters is how quickly the stay at home was put into place versus some threshold number of cases in the state. In other words, how widely had it spread pre-lockdown, in that state and individual regions of the state. In areas locked down before it spread much, a low incidence of the disease was maintained.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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About a week’s difference in when they instituted stay at home orders. With a doubling time of 3.5 days, that makes a huge difference.
That‘s what I was going to say too. California shut down early. And the Bay Area counties shut down earliest of all. That’s likely why you see a difference between San Francisco and LA.

But California is not out of the woods. Places like New York and New Jersey shut down harder than California, just not as early. They got it worse early on, but reacted more aggressively in the end. So now we see that the rate of new cases is going down in New York. One infected New Yorker infects less than one other person on average, so the rate of new infections is dropping. In CA, we are not dropping, just holding steady. One infected person infects about one other person on average. That’s not as bad as places where the rate is increasing, but it means we aren’t yet on a path to stamp it out.
 

heada

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I wonder if it also was related to the acceptance of the lockdown procedures and the difference in cultural isolation among groups. I wasn't in either CA or NY/NJ but it seems to me that when CA issued their lockdowns, everyone immediately complied but in NY/NJ, compliance was delayed by days. Also, in NY/NJ there are lots of ethnic/religious groups that ignored the lockdown restrictions in general. I remember reading several accounts of high profile funerals that attracted hundreds of people to pay their respects. Lastly, is there an average age difference between CA and NY/NJ? I've been to both and NYC vs SanFran, NYC appeared in general to be an older population which is more vulnerable and so harder hit.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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California...March 19th.....New York....March 20th......Michigan....March 23rd.....Florida...April 1st....Texas... March 31st ???
California statewide may have been March 19, but the Bay Area counties, which represent a lot of the population and the earliest cases, shut down earlier on March 16. And a lot of residents isolated even earlier than that. I went into shutdown mode on March 13.
 

boatgeek

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California...March 19th.....New York....March 20th......Michigan....March 23rd.....Florida...April 1st....Texas... March 31st ???
What really matters is how quickly the stay at home was put into place versus some threshold number of cases in the state. In other words, how widely had it spread pre-lockdown, in that state and individual regions of the state. In areas locked down before it spread much, a low incidence of the disease was maintained.
Number of confirmed cases on the day statewide stay at home orders were issued:
CA: 1009 (557 when the Bay Area orders were issued 3/16)
NY: 8452
MI: 1329
FL: 7773
TX: 3666

Data from Worldometers, except for MI, which is from 91-DIVOC because Worldometers doesn't have a state breakout for MI. I do see that different sites have slightly different numbers, and of course, there's the standard disclaimer that a lot of cases were missed in the early days because of limited testing and/or limited testing criteria.

It's clear that FL has had a different course of the disease than NY, even though they had roughly the same infection numbers when the stay at home orders were issued. I woudl like to see research on that, but my guess is that there were two major issues. NY, particularly NYC is a lot more densely populated than FL, so you would expect to see faster transmission. Second is what @ThirstyBarbarian said--people were limiting travel in FL quite a bit earlier than the governor's order was issued. I've posted this article before in this thread, but it shows how much people reduced travel compared to the year before. In NY, you can see that the major reduction in travel occurred just before the stay at home order was issued. In FL, it was quite a bit earlier.
 

Nytrunner

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Montgomery in Alabama is running near ICU capacity (~1940 cases, 53 deaths in the statistical area)
On the other hand, Huntsville up where I live has a 25% larger metro population, but ~1600 fewer confirmed cases and only 4 deaths recorded in the statistical area

The difference is noticeable. Perhaps more of the engineering and tech industries in the HSV area support remote work and stay at home opportunities? Maybe lower incomes and medical access in the Mont area? Edit: A coworker reminded me that HSV doesn't have as much urban area as Montgomery, despite the larger population
 
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Reinhard

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Number of confirmed cases on the day statewide stay at home orders were issued:
CA: 1009 (557 when the Bay Area orders were issued 3/16)
NY: 8452
MI: 1329
FL: 7773
TX: 3666

Data from Worldometers, except for MI, which is from 91-DIVOC because Worldometers doesn't have a state breakout for MI. I do see that different sites have slightly different numbers, and of course, there's the standard disclaimer that a lot of cases were missed in the early days because of limited testing and/or limited testing criteria.

It's clear that FL has had a different course of the disease than NY, even though they had roughly the same infection numbers when the stay at home orders were issued. I woudl like to see research on that, but my guess is that there were two major issues. NY, particularly NYC is a lot more densely populated than FL, so you would expect to see faster transmission. Second is what @ThirstyBarbarian said--people were limiting travel in FL quite a bit earlier than the governor's order was issued. I've posted this article before in this thread, but it shows how much people reduced travel compared to the year before. In NY, you can see that the major reduction in travel occurred just before the stay at home order was issued. In FL, it was quite a bit earlier.
The numbers of NY have multiplied by a factor of 43 by now, the ones from CA by a factor of 96 (with one day extra). So NY has been a bit more effective in reducing the infections than CA since then.
Looking at the data from NY, around the time of the lock-down, the numbers are staggering. Case 1 to 100,000 in 32 days. Before the lock-down, the doubling time was less than 2 days for 2+ weeks. I can only suspect that the true case 1 was much earlier and things were brewing below the surface for a while before testing started to catch up.

Reinhard
 

Marc_G

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The numbers of NY have multiplied by a factor of 43 by now, the ones from CA by a factor of 96 (with one day extra). So NY has been a bit more effective in reducing the infections than CA since then.
Looking at the data from NY, around the time of the lock-down, the numbers are staggering. Case 1 to 100,000 in 32 days. Before the lock-down, the doubling time was less than 2 days for 2+ weeks. I can only suspect that the true case 1 was much earlier and things were brewing below the surface for a while before testing started to catch up.

Reinhard
One note, doubling time of less than two days was probably influenced by ramp up of testing availability, on top of the actual quick transmission at the time. Retrospective analysis will probably deconvolute that, but actual infections were probably doubling like 3 days or so.
 

afadeev

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It's easy to understand why Montana has fewer cases but I wish someone could satisfactorily explain the huge difference between New York and California....
Stay at home orders timed right made all of the difference between these two states.
It's a little more complicated than that.
Timing of containment measures (e.g.: stay at home (SAH) orders, mask wearing, etc) definitely has had a huge impact at bending the new infections and hospitalization rate, but you also have to consider the levels of virus exposure and population density and mobility.

Based on virus genome testing, 90+% of the Covid-19 infections in NY area had originated from Europe, with infection spread starting in Jan-Feb. Note, this means that the travel ban on China had little effect on NY's Covid-19 virus exposure, and the semi-ban on European travel in mid-March was too little too late. By then, the community virus-spread was fully underway:

Also consider that NYC alone has been the epicenter of Covid-19 spread largely due to the three (3) huge international airports that serve 11.5M travelers per month.
Roughly half of those travelers are international, most of whom are flying in from Europe:

Last, but not least, is the population density of NYC and the surrounding areas. The more people you bump into, the greater the probability of virus exposure.
Now look at the map of US population density, and you will observe that the NYC-metro area has the largest density in the US. NJ is, actually, the state with the highest population density in the US, but that's because upstate NY is sparsely populated. Thus the bulk of Covid-19 impact has been in and around NYC area:

Now add population mobility, mostly by tightly-packed public transport, to further maximize virus exposure.
Manhattan (1 of 5 boroughs) has the daytime population of 4M people, but only 1.46M nighttime residents. The rest daily commute (aka Bridge And Tunnel people - BATs), but not just to Manhattan. All 5 boroughs and the areas around Hudson river in NJ and downstate-NY are major employment hubs.
Note that the areas hardest hit counties are actually NOT in NYC itself, but the NJ/CT/LI/downstate-NY suburbs from where 1/2 of the NYC worker pool resides, and commutes back and forth to the areas around The City.

Population density + closed-quarters mobility + major European air travel hub + late SAH application == NYC hit the Covid-19 "curve" early and hard.
It also means that NY/CT/NJ are on the down-slope of the new infections curve as of now, while other parts of the US, including California, are now on the upswing:

As of today, 5/26, largest # of daily infections by state, are in the following order: CA, VA, IL, NY, TX, NJ, AL, MN, GA, OH.

Good luck to everyone who lives among the folks protesting mask wearing and Covid-19 "fear mongering".
 
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amiliv

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California statewide may have been March 19, but the Bay Area counties, which represent a lot of the population and the earliest cases, shut down earlier on March 16. And a lot of residents isolated even earlier than that. I went into shutdown mode on March 13.
Yup. Some of the large Bay Area employers started transitioning to working from home as early as March 5. That's full two weeks before mandatory state-wide stay at home orders.
 

cwbullet

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Based on virus genome testing, 90+% of the Covid-19 infections in NY area had originated from Europe, with infection spread starting in Jan-Feb. Note, this means that the travel ban on China had little effect on NY's Covid-19 virus exposure, and the semi-ban on European travel in mid-March was too little too late. By then, the community virus-spread was fully underway:
Concur. I was simplifying this on purpose. We should have put the travel ban in place months earlier but China and WHO misinformation ruined that chance. I am not going to decide if that was mismanagment or intended but it deserves a serious look when this is complete.

Georgia is clearly on a 7-14 day decline and might be out of the woods for now. They are no longer in the top ten for infections. Maryland blew past GA. I am not sure why but it has to be Population Density and a difference in action to prevent.

My largest concern is VA.
 
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