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For those who think that the US (and possibly others) are overreacting to Coronavirus:

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Steve Shannon

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prfesser

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Not a fan of Vox. They seem to be agenda-driven to me. YMMV.

I’ll say no more and just fly rockets.
I don't know whether Vox is agenda-driven. But the numbers provided are either correct, or they're not. If they're not correct, some reliable but contrary information (preferably dot edu or dot gov) would be warranted. If they are, the trend suggests some serious thought. For my part, I'm hunkering down, using up freezer food and canned food of which we have lots, building rockets (3" WAC Corporal, Estes Mercury Redstone, and 3" Aerobee Hi) and waiting for a significant change in the trend.

Best -- Terry
...prefers scientific observation to opinion...
 

BBowmaster

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My worry isn’t that we’re overreacting. My worry is that the mandated reaction may have a better chance of killing me than the virus.

If Michigan enforces a stay-at-home travel ban I will lose all sources of income. Shortly thereafter I will lose my leased car which will prevent me from working when “things return to normal.” Utility shut offs follow that. Before that, I’ll have run out of food.

I’m a 55yo Type II diabetic, but it’s not the virus I fear.

The cost of saving lives from the virus could end up being just as high as the potential virus deaths.
 

ThreeJsDad

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My worry isn’t that we’re overreacting. My worry is that the mandated reaction may have a better chance of killing me than the virus.

If Michigan enforces a stay-at-home travel ban I will lose all sources of income. Shortly thereafter I will lose my leased car which will prevent me from working when “things return to normal.” Utility shut offs follow that. Before that, I’ll have run out of food.

I’m a 55yo Type II diabetic, but it’s not the virus I fear.

The cost of saving lives from the virus could end up being just as high as the potential virus deaths.
I kind of eluded to this in a previous thread I started. You are in a rough place and I do not envy you. I managed to beat the diabetic issues but many of us will face similar events in the coming weeks.

I read a quip somewhere that said the crash in the economy may kill more people than the virus.
 

kuririn

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I can't believe I'm reading this.
The Oxford model shows 2.2 million American deaths if nothing is done.
If mitigation protocols are enacted that drops to 1.1 million.
If more stringent suppression protocols are enacted we can extrapolate the # of deaths to 80-85 thousand.
(The model does not give # of American deaths for suppression but it does for the British # of deaths.)
Mitigation and suppression protocols will adversely affect the economy.
So, you want to keep the American economy humming along and see 2.2 million deaths?
Unbelievable.
 

cbrarick

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so, we have models: what are they based on? FluI? The WHO hasn't come out with a mortality model yet. They actually state that disease modeling is a top priority. According to them, it should be one of our top priorities.
right now we've seen 3407 deaths in Italy, 3253 in china the predictions given by others are in orders of magnitude greater. It's interesting that the WHO and/or the CDC hasn't published this yet. None of the models could possibly take into account any emerging science (treatments, vaccines). There are 35 vaccines in development https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biote...ed-fight-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-full-list

I still think we need to stop, step away from the TV, take a deep breath and wait for actual data to come out.

I also believe that BBowmaster is right, there's a awful toll on many people with all these restrictions. I'd feel better if we knew that it would really make a difference. I wonder what the toll will be from isolating people and the continued "sky's falling" message that has slowly increased the panic and anxiety of the world.

I think it's mighty odd that WHO says we should stay a meter from anyone coughing or sneezing. The CDC has backed away from their 6 foot rule https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html

Let's be safe out there!
I vote we stay home and build rockets....
 

kuririn

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I vote we stay home and build rockets....
Staying at home (which I agree, we should do) is going to adversely affect the economy.
No business for bars, restaurants, hotels, sports arenas, concert halls.
The point a couple of posters would have you believe is that we should not be doing this and bootstrapping the economy.
I would proffer that we should opt for the lesser of two evils.
 

BBowmaster

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Here is the first time I’ve seen the possibility of 2.2 million deaths. Previously I’ve seen numbers under 50k. Still not good, but far less.

I guess my point is that some of us, a good proportion, are more vulnerable to the economic effects than the medical effects. Yet we are doing virtually nothing about it. We need to address both problems and we must not treat it as an adversarial case. If it is presented as a choice between medical safety and economic prosperity, medical will always win. But it’s not an either/or choice. We need to address both. Right now we’re only addressing the medical side.

I have been homeless once before. I was lucky then (20 years ago). I doubt I’ll survive it this time.
 

kuririn

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I have been homeless once before. I was lucky then (20 years ago). I doubt I’ll survive it this time.
I feel for you buddy. But as a diabetic, you are in a high risk group. Please take precautions.
There are safety nets on the Fed/state/county level.
Unemployment benefits, welfare, food stamps.
Congress is working on an economic relief bill as we speak.
Over a trillion dollars, last I heard.
Stay positive.:D
 

NateB

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Just remember, if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, will you be able to be treated for a diabetic emergency? A heart attack? Or anything else?
 

timbucktoo

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The brats on spring break may end up indirectly killing more people than drunk drivers this year. Something to think about. ;-)
Living in a tourist town, I couldn’t agree more. They just don’t think about the repercussions if they get infected. It’s really sad to see.
 

mpitfield

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Just remember, if the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, will you be able to be treated for a diabetic emergency? A heart attack? Or anything else?
I think the deaths from this will extend far beyond covid19 patients. I think the people infected now are the lucky ones when it comes to treatment. It won't be long before they run out of life-saving equipment for critical covid19 patients, if the trend continues, and I see no reason to believe it won't.
 

afadeev

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Not a fan of Vox. They seem to be agenda-driven to me. YMMV.
Data has no agenda.
Numbers are numbers.
Trendlines are trendlines.

The alternative is... alternative facts. Good luck with that.

The cost of saving lives from the virus could end up being just as high as the potential virus deaths.
So, you want to keep the American economy humming along and see 2.2 million deaths?
And that is, in a nutshell, the dilemma in front of us.

I think the choice is obvious, clear, and unambiguous.
But it doesn't come without a sacrifice.
 

mpitfield

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Data has no agenda.
Numbers are numbers.
Trendlines are trendlines.

The alternative is... alternative facts. Good luck with that.





And that is, in a nutshell, the dilemma in front of us.

I think the choice is obvious, clear, and unambiguous.
But it doesn't come without a sacrifice.
I think he meant that Vox has a political agenda, and they most definitely do.

That has nothing to do with the numbers they present, which he is not arguing about.

Two things can be right at the same time.

I'm not interested in getting into a debate on if they have an agenda or not, as most, if not all "reporters", "news" sources have some bias or agenda.
 

Steve Shannon

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And now we find it's our own elected senators who sold out the stock market for their own gains with insider info. They knew the severity, only told their rich friends, and got out. The rest of us just watch it crash. Uggh.
They should be recalled, prosecuted, have their proceeds stripped, and finally jailed.
 

Bill S

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They should be recalled, prosecuted, have their proceeds stripped, and finally jailed.
Didn't you know, Congress routinely makes itself immune from many of the laws they write, including insider trading. Any of us would be put in jail, but they get a free pass. Ever wonder why they get ever richer while in office? The job itself doesn't pay all that great, considering the cost of living in DC, but all the perks, insider tips, connections, bribes (err, campaign contributions), and its no surprise that the typical Congress-critter gets a LOT richer while there in the DC swamp.
 

John Kemker

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Type II/Insulin-dependent diabetic living with a Dialysis RN. One of her patients was quarantined in the hospital for testing for COVID-19. I'm praying she wasn't exposed.

Haven't worked since Monday. My employer *might* have 6-8 hours available for me to work Monday night. Nothing the rest of the week. Our two biggest customers have cancelled all inventories for another two weeks, at best. Hiring new people is difficult in times like this.

Just sold one of my ham radios for a $300 loss, just to make sure I can pay bills.
 

Zeus-cat

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I am not making light of anyone's situation, but the result of almost all action by people in power is that some people benefit and others lose. People are going to lose their jobs, people will lose their cars and houses, but the hope is that society as a whole is better off than if we do nothing. And I say hope as we just don't know what this pandemic will do.

Also, being in power at a time of crisis is usually not an enviable position. There are many difficult choices to be made and you know you will be hurting some people to benefit others.
 

hartlch

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I don't know whether Vox is agenda-driven. But the numbers provided are either correct, or they're not. If they're not correct, some reliable but contrary information (preferably dot edu or dot gov) would be warranted. If they are, the trend suggests some serious thought.
...prefers scientific observation to opinion...
Well, the article mentions some of the problems with the numbers we have so far, but the way they are presented in their graph are incorrect. In order to compare infection rate, you need to use per capita numbers, not raw number of cases. They do say that in one sentence, but that is not what the chart shows. Given our roughly 300 / 60 million population ratio, you should divide the US bars in the chart by one fifth to get a more realistic picture. Of course the input data has problems, and the analysis is more complicated (both pointed out in the article) but the scary graph is misleading.

Hopefully our efforts keep our trend line low
 

rcktnut

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I'm watching my local city, county, and state statistics/info which are all updated daily with those tested, those positive that have been tested( currently 6% tested were positive 94% negative), counties with no. of positive cases identified, community spread if suspected, and deaths. Too much speculation out there one way or another the way this is going to go. I'll rely on info from my local authorities and that is about it, my biggest concern. Only time will tell how good or bad we are doing to suppress it.
 

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This COVID19 doesn't bother me in the least. Use common sense and follow the rules and you should be fine. If all the crybabies would stop hoarding all the supplies things would be back to normal instead they create more of a problem. Just buy what you normally would buy and everything will be available. This panic buying is not necessary.
 

rcktnut

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This COVID19 doesn't bother me in the least. Use common sense and follow the rules and you should be fine. If all the crybabies would stop hoarding all the supplies things would be back to normal instead they create more of a problem. Just buy what you normally would buy and everything will be available. This panic buying is not necessary.
I can see people buying more to reduce the no. of trips to the store, but they don't need 6 months supply of the items that are not available TP, paper towels, disinfectant wipes, hand sanitizers etc. It makes those items unavailable to unselfish responsible shoppers.
 

AfterBurners

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I can see people buying more to reduce the no. of trips to the store, but they don't need 6 months supply of the items that are not available TP, paper towels, disinfectant wipes, hand sanitizers etc. It makes those items unavailable to unselfish responsible shoppers.
I went to the store this morning to get milk and butter. I bought 2 gallons of milk and there were only two packages of butter left. I bought one and left the other. Someone else might need it as well. Common courtesy and common sense, which seems to be the problem with a large majority of people who are reacting to COVID19
 

TSMILLER

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I went to the store this morning to get milk and butter. I bought 2 gallons of milk and there were only two packages of butter left. I bought one and left the other. Someone else might need it as well. Common courtesy and common sense, which seems to be the problem with a large majority of people who are reacting to COVID19
I went into my local Costco yesterday. Bread, milk, flour, sugar, rice, TP, paper towels, bottled water were not to be found.
My trip was for a few items I keep stashed in my desk at work, and milk.
I noticed the big sign at the front door that Costco would not accept returns on any of the mass exit items.
I agree that next week, stores will probably not be able to give it away after over buying to meet the hoarding demands.
 
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