The CG is far forward. The corrective moment (force at a distance) is larger for the stick because its CP is far away from the CG. The upper (unstable) moment due to the body tube in front of the CG is smaller because it is not very far from the CG. Subtracting the two moments, the stick wins.I don't see how CP can get behind CG in a simulation (OpenRocket). The cross section is not enough to pull the CP lower than the nose.