Delta variant

plugger

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If everybody stayed home and received free money from the government, would that make the prospects any brighter for defeating the spread of the virus?
Worked here in Western Australia. We locked down early and hard when there was community spread, and once we got on top of it we continued to have a hard border with other states that still had community spread. That policy continues to this day. We've had multiple outbreaks/community spread, multiple short/hard lockdowns, and we've come out COVID free on the other side. We even squashed the spread of Delta here when someone returned from Sydney and was in the community for a few days. To date our state of roughly 2.7 million inhabitants has had 9 deaths attributed to COVID since the pandemic began.

Now right about now I think you're probably thinking "how much did that cost your local economy" or "what's your current budget deficit" or "what's the mental health situation with the kids"? Much better than you'd expect on all accounts. Come to find out 1-2 week lockdowns when a small amount of community spread is occurring doesn't provide long term pain to most businesses*. Our iron ore mines are largely what drive the state economy and due to the combination of Vale having to stop mining in Brazil and China still needing ore we've had a bumper fiscal year for royalities. Our FY 2020-2021 state budget surplus was $5 billion AUD. And because we don't have community spread we are able to do everything in state we want without requiring masks, social distancing, etc. Every weekend we have tens of thousands of people in our local stadium watching football and our pubs and clubs are able to fill to capacity. Our schools are all open and there are no requirements for ppe or social distancing.

Would it work over there? I doubt it. Too many people wouldn't be able to wrap their head around or accept that sacrifice for the greater good. And before anyone attempts to light me up for being uninformed, please understand I'm a born and raised Southerner and have spent just under half my life living in the United States. The focus on individual liberties in the US has in some ways made it uniquely unsuitable to handle this situation for the betterment of the community.

* I understand that this is a generalization and some businesses (eg hospitality and tourism) haven't fared so well but we had federal government programs to help these business sectors.
 
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bobtheshortstop

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The only good thing about covid... is it gives you an excuse to take two weeks off of work to work on builds and do some launching.... All you have to say is, "I've been exposed". Well, at least that's how it works for me. Anyone else do this?
 

BABAR

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The Delta variant developed in India before anyone there was vaccinated.

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With all current variants originating in other countries, it seems futile to think that by vaccinating everybody in this country, we will not suffer future variants as some in here have used as justification to go after the non-vaccinated with such vitriol.
True. There is sphere of control and sphere of influence, and as far as the world is concerned, we can help supply the world with vaccine but we cannot force them to take it. (You can lead a horse to water….,)

in our own country, I am hesitant to have the government mandate vaccines for adults, but I don’t have a problem once the vaccines are fully FDA approved for BUSINESSES to require it in workers in certain fields, and if/when FDA approved for schools, which already require vaccinations for other diseases, for kids, again once FDA approved for kids (safety standards for kids need to be higher, although I AM frightened that the Delta strain seems to be causing more severely symptomatic infections in kids and these leads to further concern we may see a strain more like the Spanish Flu that demonstrates more severe and frequently FATAL disease in adults 20-40, probably NOT because the virus itself was “meaner” but because it provided a much stronger autoimmune response in healthy strong young patients.

while the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines does seem to be dropping against Delta (emphasize the non-mRNA vaccines were less effective and possibly nearly non-effective at the get go), the drop seems to be a decrease mainly in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections, so the mRNA vaccines seem to still have a strong effect in reducing hospitalizations and death in fully vaccinated people. That’s good for the recipients, also good for EVERYONE needing ER, Hospital, ICU, and Ventilator resources, as I don’t need Fox News or MSNBC (two of the “extremes” of so called News services which tend to spin the news to one extreme or the other.). I can look at my local hospital and see the tent outside (our hospital has 642 beds on the main unit, and I think 60 plus beds in the ER.). And I read the imaging studies, so at least in my neck of the woods, the numbers are going up, and my local ER doc and friend tells me the sickest are far and away the ones without vaccination.

what we do in the US will, as you have correctly surmised, do little to affect the rise of variants, which are far more likely to occur in more heavily populated and overpopulated poor countries with low vaccination rates. IMO we need to support efforts to get vaccine out to the rest of the world, but our first (or at least simultaneous) priority is to get our house (country) in order first, if we fall into chaos we can’t help anyone else anyway.

my understanding is that people are already working on delta specific vaccines, these still MUST be tested as when we change the target protein we need to make sure we don’t accidentally generates an antibody that overlaps the delta target protein and a normal human protein. It’s one of the reasons i would like to see a multivalent vaccine that attacks two or more virus proteins, as such would be more challenging for the virus to mutate. Again however, it requires rigorous testing because we don’t want something that MAY cause issues like Guillian Barre.

I think a multivalent vaccine is likely to do better at “staying ahead” of the virus’s ability to outmutate our science.

meanwhile, the other protective measures are masks, physical distancing (fortunately social distancing can be mitigated by things like FaceTime and Zoom), business closures, and lockdowns. I believe I have presented these in the order of lowest to greatest impact on both social and economic impact, with masking in particular when practiced universally being effective in reducing spread within a population, although limited in effectiveness in protecting the individual wearers. People want to blame political leaders for either forcing or not enforcing mask mandates, to my knowledge no government entity is DENYING the right for people to wear a mask, only arguing on whether to FORCE people to wear them. So even in places with no mandate to wear them, people can (and in my opinion, for what it’s worth, should) wear masks in indoor public places. So let’s not lay all the fault on the politicians. In the long run, we all make our choices, unfortunately in this case our choices not only impact ourselves but also impact those around us, I can only hope and pray that people will make choices that protect not only themselves but also their fellows. Thus far the results have been disappointing , but the game is far from over.

my best wishes to all of you and your families.
 
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hball55

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I think it would be a great thing if our pharma companies flooded the world with vaccines . . . then send the bill to China, along with a credit (our trade deficit with China plus some incidentals) to cancel out the bill.
 

plugger

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I think it would be a great thing if our pharma companies flooded the world with vaccines . . . then send the bill to China, along with a credit (our trade deficit with China plus some incidentals) to cancel out the bill.
lol, as long as your comfortable with century old back claims for the Spanish flu costs by other countries lodged against the USA in response. Remember, despite its name it originated in Kansas in late spring 1918.
 

Steve Shannon

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lol, as long as your comfortable with century old back claims for the Spanish flu costs by other countries lodged against the USA in response. Remember, despite its name it originated in Kansas in late spring 1918.
The origin has not been conclusively established. Medical historians have many theories which include suspected cases at a U.K. Army camp in Étaples, France in late 1916, Austria in early 1917, and Northern China in November 1917. The earliest confirmed cases were documented in Kansas in January 1918. But it certainly didn’t come from Spain; they were just the only country at the time with enough freedom to publish reports in their newspapers.
 

jderimig

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When Covid alpha appeared in the US there were extensive studies to determine the track of the virus based on DNA tracing. It was determined that the introduction was primarily from Europe to America through NYC airports which then networked throughout the air transportation system.

Since then almost all air travel into the US from foreign countries is pretty much shut down. Has there been any study or hypothesis on the routes Delta used to get to the US?
 

plugger

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> Since then almost all air travel into the US from foreign countries is pretty much shut down. Has there been any study or hypothesis on the routes Delta used to get to the US?

Is it? I was under the impression that air travel was wide open over there in comparison to most countries. Also, there's no hotel quarantine in the US either. It's entirely possible, even probable, that multiple people have flown into the US with Delta asymptomatic and were then infectious in the community. Here in Australia our Delta problems have all initially come from infected returning air travelers.
 

jderimig

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> Since then almost all air travel into the US from foreign countries is pretty much shut down. Has there been any study or hypothesis on the routes Delta used to get to the US?

Is it? I was under the impression that air travel was wide open over there in comparison to most countries. Also, there's no hotel quarantine in the US either. It's entirely possible, even probable, that multiple people have flown into the US with Delta asymptomatic and were then infectious in the community. Here in Australia our Delta problems have all initially come from infected returning air travelers.
Mea Culpa. Negative Covid test required to enter the US via air.

 

plugger

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Mea Culpa. Negative Covid test required to enter the US via air.
Yea, while nice it's not a 100% guarantee that a person is Covid negative when they enter. And I reiterate, if there's not a quarantine system in place you will have people flying in and infectious in the community.
This is the exact vector Australia's current Delta outbreak originated, we only have air travel, and negative tests are required to get on the plane, etc. And NSW is in the midst of a big Delta outbreak as a result despite these precautions.
 
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