Delta variant

Winston

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My state's data on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths doesn't support the following. For now... Exactly the opposite, actually. Most recent data: two days of zero deaths followed by one day with 2 deaths statewide. No spike in hospitalizations from the 4th of July; actually a significant drop. However, 95.5% of new cases are the Delta variant.

VAX PANIC Vaccinated people may be JUST as contagious as Delta variant is spreading faster than common cold, leaked CDC doc warns
Jul 29 2021


Vaccinated people may be just as contagious as the unvaccinated as the deadly Delta Covid variant is spreading faster than the common cold, a leaked CDC document has warned.

A worrying slide presentation shared internally by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is causing the nation’s top public health authority to change tact as the raging Delta mutation spreads - sending cases and hospitalizations soaring.

'BREAKTHROUGH' CASES

The new research may have touched on a widespread outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts, where after Independence Day, there have been 882 Covid-19 cases counted.

Nearly three-quarters of the sick
["sick" or just positive cases?; most likely the latter - W] were fully vaccinated, the Times reported.

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection - July 30, 2021


Note that while the growing national case increases may support that title, I suspect their claim of "more severe infection" comes from the apparently much greater viral load of the Delta-infected rather than the symptoms since the vaccines are highly effective in suppressing symptoms.

However, that's what is probably leading to the higher viral loads because the illness has progressed much further before people even realize they're infected and get tested. And THERE is EXACTLY the problem with vaccines that suppress symptoms, but do not prevent INFECTIONS - the vaccinated become unknowing super-spreaders.

Behind the Masks, a Mystery: How Often Do the Vaccinated Spread the Virus?
The C.D.C.’s new masking advice was based in part on data showing that the virus can thrive in the airways of vaccinated people. The findings are expected on Friday.


New research showed that vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant carry tremendous amounts of the virus in the nose and throat, she said in an email responding to questions from The New York Times.

The finding contradicts what scientists had observed in vaccinated people infected with previous versions of the virus, who mostly seemed incapable of infecting others.

That conclusion dealt Americans a heavy blow: People with so-called breakthrough infections — cases that occur despite full vaccination — of the Delta variant may be just as contagious as unvaccinated people, even if they have no symptoms.


From Wikipedia, the incredibly high R0 of chickenpox:

Chickenpox (varicella) - Aerosol transmission - R0 = 10–12 - Herd Immunity Threshold = 90–92%

On just the vaccine breakthrough topic, this was all probably suspected back in May when the CDC changed its breakthrough reporting policy:

COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigation and Reporting


"As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance."

"Maximize the quality of the data"? As if only the hospitalized and dead couldn't be selected from the overall data using filters just like the ones already available in their VAERS database? Nah, the intent was to suppress reporting of vaccine breakthroughs.

But breakthrough cases still manage to hit the national news anyway like the six infected, fully vaccinated in the group of Texas Democrat legislators who flew to DC, managed to infect at least two fully vaccinated White House staff, and caused VP Harris who met with them to make a "routine" visit to Walter Reed hospital, probably for a PCR test. There's also the nine fully vaccinated but infected major league baseball players from May and the three fully vaccinated but infected ones who delayed the All Star game, just off the top of my head.
 
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boomtube-mk2

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The nightmare scenario, aside from a "100% Plague"*, is a virus that mutates fast enough to stay well ahead of vaccine development or worse, mutates as a result of widespread vaccination, for its previous incarnation, with the resulting strain being more infectious, more deadly and immune to the already deployed vaccines.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

*First written about in the novel "The Satan Bug" by Alistair MacLean it is a virus or bacteria that infects 100% of the population and kills 100% of those infected.
 

dr wogz

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Dotini

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Last night on TV a person of authority said the Delta variant is spread by aerosols. He said this means that masks which protect against particles are a useless defense against the Delta variant. True or false?
 

Dotini

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The nightmare scenario, aside from a "100% Plague"*, is a virus that mutates fast enough to stay well ahead of vaccine development or worse, mutates as a result of widespread vaccination, for its previous incarnation, with the resulting strain being more infectious, more deadly and immune to the already deployed vaccines.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

*First written about in the novel "The Satan Bug" by Alistair MacLean it is a virus or bacteria that infects 100% of the population and kills 100% of those infected.
As far as I know, there is no real guarantee that humanity is destined to forever expand out to the stars. In fact(?), a near-miss with human extinction occurred at the Toba event of ~75k years ago when the total human population on Earth was reduced to as few as 1,000 breeding pairs.
The Youngest Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 70,000 years ago,[29][30] which may have resulted in a severe reduction in the size of the total human population due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate.[31] According to the genetic bottleneck theory, between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago, human populations sharply decreased to 3,000–10,000 surviving individuals.[32][33] It is supported by some genetic evidence suggesting that today's humans are descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about 70,000 years ago.[34][35]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#cite_note-35

I personally don't think the virus will very seriously threaten humanity's reign on Earth. Equal or bigger threats might be nuclear war, runaway global warming or a new Ice Age. But, as often, I could be wrong about everything.

But I agree this horrible virus nightmare should be an occasion for greater reflection and philosophical discussion of our mission and purpose on Earth, and how well we are going about it. Sometimes works of fiction like MacLean's can be an aid in thinking about this.
 

manixFan

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Last night on TV a person of authority said the Delta variant is spread by aerosols. He said this means that masks which protect against particles are a useless defense against the Delta variant. True or false?
Definition: "An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. Aerosols can be natural or anthropogenic"

Covid has always been spread mostly as an aerosol. The whole point of a mask is to trap the liquid droplets that contain the virus particles, if they were dry particles they would be far too small to be stopped by any normal mask. Unless the 'TV authority' means only masks designed to stop particles, not aerosols. But the masks recommended by the CDC are effective at stopping aerosols.

So the statement is false, unless the 'TV authority' is being disingenuous.

Tony

"Masks substantially reduce exhaled respiratory droplets and aerosols from infected wearers and reduce exposure of uninfected wearers to these particles. Cloth masks and medical procedure masks fit more loosely than do respirators (e.g., N95 facepieces). The effectiveness of cloth and medical procedure masks can be improved by ensuring that they are well fitted to the contours of the face to prevent leakage of air around the masks' edges."

 

H_Rocket

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Delta is so last week. We should be worrying about Lambda and one I heard described as "doomsday". Face it, not matter what we do, this is here to stay. Unless we are prepared to force people to get vaccinated AND make mask wearing a requirement backed by the consequences of actual law with substantial penalties for an extended period of time - in addition to shutting off travel to and from any country that does the same, we will constantly ride the roller coaster.
 

Dotini

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Delta is so last week. We should be worrying about Lambda and one I heard described as "doomsday". Face it, not matter what we do, this is here to stay. Unless we are prepared to force people to get vaccinated AND make mask wearing a requirement backed by the consequences of actual law with substantial penalties for an extended period of time - in addition to shutting off travel to and from any country that does the same, we will constantly ride the roller coaster.
If everybody stayed home and received free money from the government, would that make the prospects any brighter for defeating the spread of the virus?
 

H_Rocket

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If everybody stayed home and received free money from the government, would that make the prospects any brighter for defeating the spread of the virus?
I'm at the other end of the spectrum. I'm tired of panic being driven by science from organizations we should be able to trust but cant even agree internally being broadcasted by otherwise reputable physicians and embraced by virtue signalling folk. My comment was intended to show that there really is no way to "defeat" this in the near term. We as a species are going to have to adapt physiologically.
 

Steve Shannon

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Last night on TV a person of authority said the Delta variant is spread by aerosols. He said this means that masks which protect against particles are a useless defense against the Delta variant. True or false?
False. Assuming you’re paraphrasing Scott Gottlieb, he didn’t say masks which protect against particles are “useless”. He said that it would be better to use a mask that protects against aerosols.
 

boomtube-mk2

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As far as I know, there is no real guarantee that humanity is destined to forever expand out to the stars. In fact(?), a near-miss with human extinction occurred at the Toba event of ~75k years ago when the total human population on Earth was reduced to as few as 1,000 breeding pairs.

Wiki: The Great Filter.
 

Dotini

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I'm at the other end of the spectrum. I'm tired of panic being driven by science from organizations we should be able to trust but cant even agree internally being broadcasted by otherwise reputable physicians and embraced by virtue signalling folk. My comment was intended to show that there really is no way to "defeat" this in the near term. We as a species are going to have to adapt physiologically.
Of course I'm very concerned about the health, physiological and psychological effects of the pandemic. But, if government wants to go massively into deficit spending to pay people to stay home and avoid paying rent, that could signal a transition away from work and enterprise to dependency, socialism and worse.
 

H_Rocket

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Of course I'm very concerned about the health, physiological and psychological effects of the pandemic. But, if government wants to go massively into deficit spending to pay people to stay home and avoid paying rent, that could signal a transition away from work and enterprise to dependency, socialism and worse.
And I am adamantly opposed to that path.
 

Bravo52

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False. Assuming you’re paraphrasing Scott Gottlieb, he didn’t say masks which protect against particles are “useless”. He said that it would be better to use a mask that protects against aerosols.
Look up Dr. Dan Stock's explanation. He provides some more context and technical information as to why most mask are not entirely effective.
 

Steve Shannon

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Look up Dr. Dan Stock's explanation. He provides some more context and technical information as to why most mask are not entirely effective.
Probably no mask that a person would wear in public is “entirely effective”, but that is different from being “useless” which logically equates to “entirely ineffective”. A significant problem society is experiencing is that people hear something and immediately leap to an extreme interpretation.
 
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boomtube-mk2

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We as a species are going to have to adapt physiologically.
We are also going to have to adapt psychologically and accept the fact that people are going to die, no matter what measures we use to ameliorate the affects of Covid19..

We have "learned to accept" that apx 36,000 people die each year from the flu, we might now have to accept that an additional XX,XXX number of people are going to die from whatever variant of Covid19 is prevalent that year.
 

H_Rocket

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We are also going to have to adapt psychologically and accept the fact that people are going to die, no matter what measures we use to ameliorate the affects of Covid19..

We have "learned to accept" that apx 36,000 people die each year from the flu, we might now have to accept that an additional XX,XXX number of people are going to die from whatever variant of Covid19 is prevalent that year.

Mike Rowe wrote an interesting essay on that. He basically said, that while it sucks, people are going to die from COVID19.
 

Bat-mite

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Probably no mask that a person would wear in public is “entirely effective”, but that is different from being “useless” which logically equates to “entirely ineffective”. A significant problem society isn’t experiencing is that people here something and immediately leap to an extreme interpretation.
Extremism is an easy form of dismissal that provides excuses for laziness and apathy. Not 100% effective? Then why bother?

And the fact that our society is so far gone that we need to politicize everything, even a disease. FL governor says he will fire any public school official who tries to enforce a mask policy.
 

Marc_G

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Extremism is an easy form of dismissal that provides excuses for laziness and apathy. Not 100% effective? Then why bother?

And the fact that our society is so far gone that we need to politicize everything, even a disease. FL governor says he will fire any public school official who tries to enforce a mask policy.

I'm increasingly surprised that Floridians as a whole aren't going after their governor with torches and pitchforks, given this:

1628617193910.png

1628617233680.png

The governor's hostility to basic, effective approaches to ameliorate the spread is (to me) shocking, but the fact that he hasn't been hoisted on his own petard yet, much more so.

(Data source: Worldometers)
 

Bat-mite

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I'm increasingly surprised that Floridians as a whole aren't going after their governor with torches and pitchforks, given this:

View attachment 476711

View attachment 476712

The governor's hostility to basic, effective approaches to ameliorate the spread is (to me) shocking, but the fact that he hasn't been hoisted on his own petard yet, much more so.

(Data source: Worldometers)
Agreed. Insanity. Mandating that unvaccinated children cannot be required to wear masks while confined in a school building is beyond my understanding.
 

cwbullet

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I am not making a comment on masks in children. I am saying that masks provide something for the virus to stick to and this reduces viral exposure. Any reduction may reduce infections.
 
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BABAR

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We are also going to have to adapt psychologically and accept the fact that people are going to die, no matter what measures we use to ameliorate the affects of Covid19..

We have "learned to accept" that apx 36,000 people die each year from the flu, we might now have to accept that an additional XX,XXX number of people are going to die from whatever variant of Covid19 is prevalent that year.
Absolutely correct that people AREA going to die from COVID. It is however within our power to mitigate the degree of death and suffering. Ideally this would be done by cooperation. We have unfortunately found that in the name of “freedom” people for many reasons choose NOT to cooperate and we are reaping the consequences.

personally I find masking and vaccination one heck of a lot easier to handle than business closures and lockdowns.

a really sad part is that as COVID overwhelms our hospitals, it isn’t just the patients with COVID that get the shaft. While some may say that, particularly among the unvaccinated and unmasked, those people “deserve” to get infected, I don’t want ANYONE to get sick or hospitalized or die, even if it is a consequence of their own decisions. But those making those decisions are not only “hurting themselves”. And it’s not just that they areincreasing the odds of breakthroughs in the vaccinated. When they go to the ERs and get admitted to hospitals, ICUs, and Ventilators, they are gumming up the healthcare system for all the NON-COVID stuff like heart attacks, strokes, motor vehicle accidents, appendicitis, and local knife and gun club victims.

So while I agree with your premise that we can’t prevent ALL the deaths that COVID is going to cause, and I don’t think YOU personally are saying we shouldn’t care, but some people are singing, “Que sera, sera” (whatever will be, will be.). I think for me to allow people to die needlessly by my INACTION is not that far from pulling the trigger myself.
 

Marc_G

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Wouldn't it also be true to say the Governor is running for election, pandering to votes?
Perhaps, but I find it hard to imagine him not eventually being found guilty of gross incompetence, negligence, dereliction in of duty, and willful abuse of power. I'm not a lawyer so I presume there are more appropriate charges someone with legal knowledge can cite. But, the dude is ACTIVELY KILLING PEOPLE.

For comparison, I live in a deep red state too, supermajority R in both houses and an R governor, but my state isn't doing such insane crap as is going on on Florida.
 

BABAR

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Gentleman, not that I disagree with you on any of this, but at the point where we start singling out political figures by name, or use terms "Republican" or "Democrat" we are heading outside the bounds of the forum. Even terms like "conservative" and "liberal" are kind of pushing it. This is a Rocketry Forum. We have the luxury of the Watering Hole and indeed this Covid forum to discuss non-Rocketry stuff, including health related issues LIKE Covid, but save the political specifics for forums and blogs NOT on TRF.

And yes, I mess up on this stuff sometimes too and feel free to call me on it.

Ironically, we live in what we call a "free" country, and all of these elected officials were indeed ELECTED by the people they govern. So the finger pointed at the officials ultimately returns to point to those who elected them (meaning us, small "u" and small "s"). Our Constitution starts with "We the People...." The hard part is that many of us are more than willing to enjoy the freedoms, but reluctant to go along with the RESPONSIBILITIES of maintaining that free society. And when you say, "Hey, I didn't vote for her or him", then you are calling the guy or girl across the street or town or state or country an idiot, because he or she and many like them obviously DID vote for the person.

Yeah, politics has a lot of gameplaying. But we each get a vote. Saddest thing to me is that most of our elections could have been swayed one way or the other by the large percentage of people that didn't bother to vote at all. THOSE are the people that IMO have no right to complain, yet often complain the most.

I'll say it again. Nobody is completely useless. He or she can always serve as a bad example.
 

hball55

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Ez2cDave said:
I asked to help me understand the background information that helps you develop your beliefs and positions, regarding mRNA vaccines and Covid-19.

What is your interpretation of this video ? https://rumble.com/vkz0ub-dr.-sebastian-gorka-covid-vaccine-truth.html

Dave F.
The Delta variant developed in India before anyone there was vaccinated.

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With all current variants originating in other countries, it seems futile to think that by vaccinating everybody in this country, we will not suffer future variants as some in here have used as justification to go after the non-vaccinated with such vitriol.
 

Sandy H.

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[snip previous reply]
With all current variants originating in other countries, it seems futile to think that by vaccinating everybody in this country, we will not suffer future variants as some in here have used as justification to go after the non-vaccinated with such vitriol.

I will reply to that sentence in sections as a lot is being said in a few words.

With all current variants originating in other countries,

Hard to say that, IMO. I believe that every time a virus duplicates, there can be a mutation. So, while the current delta variant that is of most concern appears to have come from outside of the US based on published information, I assume there have been many variants that have occurred within the US and they just have not mutated in such a way that they are as viable to infect as the delta variant and therefore have not become a 'high priority' variant. I'm no doctor, but I'm pretty sure that's how it works.

it seems futile

Yep, we missed the containment option a long time ago, but I am taking that short statement out of context. I'll include the rest of the point below.

it seems futile to think that by vaccinating everybody in this country, we will not suffer future variants

We will. We will suffer future variants until either the virus wins or we reduce the spread by either taking enough steps or cure it. Not just here, but worldwide. Still, I took your comment out of context, so following is the full thought you posted.

it seems futile to think that by vaccinating everybody in this country, we will not suffer future variants as some in here have used as justification to go after the non-vaccinated with such vitriol.

I agree. I don't think that vaccinating everyone in this country will solve the world's problem with the pandemic and I also don't think that using that as justification to 'go after' non-vaccinated people with vitriol is helpful.

I think that everyone in the world doing their best will minimize the impact of the current variant of this virus and that holding ones self to a higher standard than required by law, voluntarily, would have done much more for the world. In the US, I don't feel like we are currently doing our individual part of voluntarily following logical practices and are instead pushing back against laws, ordinances, policies etc., that are making us behave as we should have voluntarily done already. Not everyone is guilty, many individuals have gone well above what is required by law or logical practice - but as a whole country, we are not doing something that would make our mothers proud of us and we, as a country, should be ashamed that are using the concept of freedom, the bedrock of our country, as an excuse for our bad behavior.

Sandy.
 

hball55

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Thank you Sandy, for the thoughtful reply. The Delta and Delta+ variants, according to doctors were first identified in India. The Lambda variant was first identified in Peru.
 
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