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jsdemar

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This is a zoonotic virus. Better vaccines and drugs will not eradicate it. It will always be present in an animal reservoir, like the flu. Remember the culling of millions of minks on farms in Denmark a few months ago? A mutated strain from the minks had infected a few individuals. Best we can do is protect the population with vaccines and try to return to some semblance of normal.
Also this is an RNA virus, not a DNA one. Which means no second strand to serve as a cross check and quash any mutations. Single strand, easily mutates.
Also I will have to amend my statement on 95% efficacy at preventing the disease. Instead i would say that it has 95% efficacy at preventing an infection from sickening the individual. Fine point, but a valid one.
As far as vaccinated people carrying and shedding the virus, isn't this true of all vaccines and contagious diseases?
Was it ever implied that vaccinations prevent people from carrying and shedding the virus?
CDC guidelines state that people who are vaccinated should continue social distancing and mask wearing.
I won't belabor the point since I am not a medical professional.
All I know is what I read from the various medical organizations.
Shall we agree to disagree?
Laters.
You didn't "amend" your statement; you changed it to my correct statement. :) Now your reply has several questions...

Being zoonotic is not novel and not pertinent. Most historic plagues and pandemics were caused by living in close proximity to animals (domesticated or infestations). (READ) Most often shed in feces. Culling to fight the spread is not new.

Shedding the virus after vaccination isn't common for the diseases we're used to. It does happen, but transmission isn't easy. This virus is easily shed as it multiplies in the sinuses of asymptomatic people, even after getting the current experimental vaccines. This is reported in the Pfizer clinical trials.

Being a non-DNA virus is also not novel. Rhinoviruses and other coronaviruses that cause the common cold are single-strand and have been around a long time. They mutate regularly and don't typically cause a deadly disease. SARS-CoV-2 is novel because it is highly contagious (airborne, long-lived) and it induces dangerous and complex immune system responses with lasting side affects. Plus it is mutating quickly with unknown results in a world population of the highest density and highest mobility in history.

We all want this to be over soon. But, it's going to take a lot more time.
 

kuririn

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Being zoonotic is not novel and not pertinent.
You are missing the point. Never said zoonotic viruses are novel. And yes, it is pertinent. Your claim that better vaccines and treatments can eradicate the virus is questionable because it will always remain and mutate in a WILD animal reservoir. Culling domesticated animals on a farm is one thing, but how do you cull a wild animal population? Should you even try? What will be the ecological consequences of that action?
The flu is zoonotic and persists even today with thousands of yearly deaths because it persists and mutates in wild animal reservoirs, even with the culling of domesticated animals on farms when outbreaks occur.
Being a non-DNA virus is also not novel.
Again, missing the point. Never said an RNA virus is novel. Did say that THIS virus is single strand RNA so that it can easily mutate.

Finally, you say the statement that this is not a vaccine is mostly correct but you still refer to the Pfizer and Moderna products as vaccines.
An inconvenient truth, perhaps? Or hypocrisy?
The vaccines will protect the population that chooses to receive it, but the virus is here to stay for some time at least. We must learn to live with it, as we have learned to live with the flu.
This discussion is getting old, so I am outta here.
 
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David Schwantz

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Did not mean to start an argument. Just asked a question. but as far a culling wild animals, several states are doing that right now with the deer herd and CWD. Not saying it is working, but they are trying.
 

cerving

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Denmark, which is apparently a large source of minks, culled 17M of them in November due to Covid. Apparently they are capable of animal-human transmission.
 

modeltrains

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I'm going to toss this in to the mix and see what happens.

"What is possible is to create motivation. Whoever is vaccinated will automatically receive 'green status'. Therefore, you may vaccinate, and receive Green Status to go freely in all the green zones: They'll open for you cultural events, they'll open to you the shopping malls, hotels, and restaurants.
"You may decide you're not vaccinating, and if you do want to enter these areas you'll need to submit to a PCR test, and therefore I believe people will understand by themselves that the vaccine will return them to regular life and they'll vaccinate themselves, without our obligating them.
"But the idea we're putting out is actually something that's starting already now, and we're floating an initial pilot we're testing and are ready to start with, based on the PCR and based on antigen, assuming it will be authored by the Health Ministry, we're in the process with the Ministry, and of course serology, and very quickly, already from January to add the vaccines - whoever is vaccinated may enter those green areas, that 'safe zone'.

Israel’s coronavirus vaccination program is underway, with hundreds of thousands of citizens already having received their first dose of the two vaccine shots required. The government has repeatedly insisted that vaccination will not be made compulsory; however, its plans for issuing a “green passport” for those deemed to have immunity to the virus constitute at the very least a positive incentive for getting the shot.

The Health Ministry has already commenced discussions on the precise benefits to be accorded to those carrying a green passport, which will likely be issued to people following the second vaccine dose. According to a Channel 12 news report, holders of green passports will be exempt from the obligation to enter quarantine following a visit to a foreign country with a high rate of coronavirus infection. Currently, those returning from “red countries” are obligated to remain in home quarantine for 14 days following their return, or 10 days if they twice test negative for the virus. A green passport will also exempt its holder from having to self-isolate after being in prolonged contact with someone confirmed as a coronavirus carrier.

Previous reports have also suggested that a green passport will be required in the future in order to enter shopping malls, cultural venues, and other public spaces; the Health Ministry has yet to confirm such definite intentions.

Green passports will likely take the form of an application on one’s cell phone, in order to guard against forgeries. As such, the Health Ministry has been asked to devise a special solution for the haredi community, the vast majority of whose members do not use smartphone devices.
 
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modeltrains

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Hmm, interesting ...

University of East Anglia Professor in Medicine Professor Paul Hunter responded: “It has been widely reported that the Oxford COVID-19 had an overall efficacy of just 70% compared to 90% for the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. But those people who were given half the original dose for the first injection had an efficacy of 90% and this has become the headline figure in many reports. So the promising interim results of the Oxford vaccine are based on a subgroup analysis, the subgroup given the correct dose and the subgroup given an incorrect (half) dose according to protocol. The efficacy in those people receiving the correct dose according to protocol was only about 62% compared to over 90% found in the previously reported mRNA vaccine results.
 

kuririn

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Did not mean to start an argument. Just asked a question. but as far a culling wild animals, several states are doing that right now with the deer herd and CWD. Not saying it is working, but they are trying.
I'm back.
No worries, no arguments as far as I'm concerned, just point/counterpoint.
Culling wild deer in open country from a helicopter in a limited geographic area can work to limit progression of a disease. Culling bats in caves or pangolins in a rain forest worldwide to eliminate coronaviruses is several orders of magnitude more difficult, and not feasible nor ecologically advisable.
Denmark, which is apparently a large source of minks, culled 17M of them in November due to Covid. Apparently they are capable of animal-human transmission.
Yes, see my earlier post #118.
You didn't "amend" your statement; you changed it to my correct statement.
No, I amended it to the medical definition of a vaccine.
To recap:
Also I will have to amend my statement on 95% efficacy at preventing the disease. Instead i would say that it has 95% efficacy at preventing an infection from sickening the individual.
By definition:
A vaccine is a substance that stimulates your immune system to make antibodies -- blood proteins produced in response to a foreign substance -- as it would if you were exposed to the actual disease. After vaccination, you develop immunity to the disease, so you are protected from getting sick if you get infected.
Red highlights are mine.
 
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Ez2cDave

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Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi gave a very interesting presentation on coronaviruses and vaccines.

The 40 minute video is in German, with English subtitles . . .


Dave F.
 
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OverTheTop

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Here is an interesting story that just popped up in the news here:

US pharmacist arrested over ruined COVID vaccines
Let's take a brief trip to Wisconsin in the US, where a pharmacist has been arrested for allegedly deliberately ruining hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine by removing them from refrigeration for two nights.
Police said the pharmacist was arrested on suspicion of reckless endangerment, adulterating a prescription drug and criminal damage to property. The department said in a news release that he was in custody.
His motive remains unclear. Police said detectives believed he knew the spoiled doses would be useless and people who received them would mistakenly think they had been vaccinated when they had not.
Advocate Aurora Health Care chief medical group officer Jeff Bahr told reporters that the pharmacist deliberately removed 57 vials that held hundreds of doses of the Moderna vaccine from refrigeration at a Grafton medical centre overnight on December 24 into December 25, returned them, then left them out again on the night of December 25 into Saturday.
The vials contained enough doses to inoculate 570 people. A pharmacy technician discovered the vials outside the refrigerator on Saturday morning.
Mr Bahr said the pharmacist initially said that he had removed the vaccine to access other items in the refrigerator and had inadvertently failed to replace it.
AP
 

NateB

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That story keeps getting worse as they share more details. Our pharmacy has cameras everywhere and the computerized storage systems keep track of users and timestamps for everything pulled. Our most used drug kits contain RSI meds and narcotics, and they are always exchanged with witness and under camera. I would assume our pharmacy isn't unique either, his actions are probably all recorded. Hopefully nobody received an inactivated dose, but the lot numbers should be easy to track down.
 

OverTheTop

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Apparently sme have and they are being monitored.

"Moderna has told Aurora there are no safety concerns, but the hospital system is closely monitoring the people who received the spoiled doses. "
 
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NateB

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I received the 2nd dose this morning. Just like the first, the clinic at work was running as smooth as possible. I didn't have any side effects with the first and hopefully this 2nd shot goes the same.
 

NateB

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Day 2 with the second dose, my arm is quite sore. It hurts worse than the first time, but no fever, aches, headache, or any of the other symptoms that have been occasionally reported.

Relevant XKCD:

first_thing_2x.png
 

cwbullet

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Day 2 with the second dose, my arm is quite sore. It hurts worse than the first time, but no fever, aches, headache, or any of the other symptoms that have been occasionally reported.

Relevant XKCD:

View attachment 445436
That is great news. Everyone: Go get the vaccine.
 
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kuririn

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Looks like my father and I won't get vaccinated at the same time.
Level 1B includes people over 75, so when those people start getting the green light I'll get my father scheduled.
Seniors under 75, like me, might not get vaccinated until the spring here.
 

boatgeek

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My MIL is scheduled to get her first shot in 10 days. She lives in a retirement apartment, so they get some priority. They're bringing people down floor by floor, giving them the shot in an activity room, and then doing the 15 minute monitoring for allergies in the dining hall.

I've already seen an ad for a local retirement community pitching the fact that their residents get higher priority for the vaccine than seniors living in their own homes.
 

NateB

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It is great that they are bringing the vaccine to those communities rather than making them go somewhere else to get it.
 

boatgeek

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It is great that they are bringing the vaccine to those communities rather than making them go somewhere else to get it.
It's really important for those communities, and even more so where they have a higher level of nursing care. I think the only thing I miss about my old employer is that they will likely be able to get a private on-site office vaccination clinic, where I'll currently have to fight my way through a pharmacy/doctor's office when it's my turn.

I wish the system allowed for punting people who deliberately flouted mask orders to the back of the line.
 

Jmhepworth

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I wish the system allowed for punting people who deliberately flouted mask orders to the back of the line.
My limited experience tells me they will volunteer to go to the end of the line. The people who refuse to wear masks seem also to be the ones who think it’s all a hoax and are afraid of the vaccine.
 

boatgeek

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My limited experience tells me they will volunteer to go to the end of the line. The people who refuse to wear masks seem also to be the ones who think it’s all a hoax and are afraid of the vaccine.
OK, that's probably fair. So far, most of the people advertising that they got the vaccine are politicians. There were certainly a number in that crowd who were proud anti-maskers and still jumped the moment a vaccine became available. We probably shouldn't expect them to back their rhetoric with actions as if they actually believed it. Sigh.

On the plus side, I really appreciate politicians like the NY mayor and WA governor who aren't jumping the line--they're waiting to get the vaccine until their age/risk demographic gets called up. I understand why some significant politicians (say the top 10 in the presidential succession, maybe a few in Congressional leadership, etc.) need to be protected for national security, but most of the rest should wait their turn.
 

timbucktoo

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That is great news. Everyone: Go get the vaccine.
Not so easy in Florida unless you are over 65 and want to wait in line all day. I will get one but only when the chaos settles and they have a better distribution process. You would think they would be a little better prepared with all the time they had for rolling out the vaccine.
 

cwbullet

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Not so easy in Florida unless you are over 65 and want to wait in line all day. I will get one but only when the chaos settles and they have a better distribution process. You would think they would be a little better prepared with all the time they had for rolling out the vaccine.
My father is traveling to FL. I wish I could talk him out of snowbirding this year.
 

kuririn

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Not so easy in Florida unless you are over 65 and want to wait in line all day. I will get one but only when the chaos settles and they have a better distribution process. You would think they would be a little better prepared with all the time they had for rolling out the vaccine.
I've read that De Santis overruled guidelines for distribution to first responders and essential workers as well as seniors and decided to distribute all the first doses to senior citizens. Result was seniors lining up for hours, some overnight in 47 deg. weather. Nuts.
Also read that the federal distribution response stopped at the handoff to the states. Each state is then responsible for distributing the vaccine to its' citizens. As of Saturday there were 45+ million doses distributed but only 13+ million doses actually administered. Some states seem to be doing better than others. Hopefully they will all work out the logistics kinks.
EDIT: Faulty memory, should be 17 million doses distributed and 4.8 million doses administered.
 
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afadeev

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As of Saturday there were 45+ million doses distributed but only 13+ million doses actually administered. Some states seem to be doing better than others. Hopefully they will all work out the logistics kinks.
That's 15+ million across the globe.
~5 million in the US.
Israel, U.A.E, and Bahrain are leading the world in per capita vaccination, to date:

I ran into my primary care Doc at Costco this Sunday. Chatted about vaccination drive, while waiting in checkout line. He got his first shot 3 weeks ago, due for the second the next Monday.
He said his office will absolutely not be distributing the vaccine since storage and compliance requirements are way too onerous. There are also no clearly defined compensation models for all the efforts, to ROI would be negative.
He got his shot from a local hospital, but sees no way for that to scale for the general population. Especially as hospitals staff time is being consumed by the increasing number of Cov2 hospitalizations.

We hypothesized about relying on pharmacies and/or national guard, but there is low-confidence in the former, and no known plans to call up and train the latter.
On the Federal level, and at least in the state of NJ, there are no Covid-19 vaccination plans, beyond dumping the obligation on States, which dump it onto the already over-burdened hospitals:

As to the US-wide distribution progress, below is CDC's own Covid-19 distribution tracking web site. As of 1/5/21:
"At least 4,836,469 people in the United States have received a dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "

Here is another, with different graphical representation of the same data:

Also read that the federal distribution response stopped at the handoff to the states. Each state is then responsible for distributing the vaccine to its' citizens.
That is correct:
"The dataset lists the allocations of doses made available for states and jurisdictions to order against. Weekly allocations are provided to states on Tuesdays; after doses are ordered by states, shipments begin the following Monday."

I know that NJ state bureaucrats failed to figure this out this process promptly, and missed the first ordering window back in December, altogether.

Other than that, it's all going just peachy...
 

BABAR

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Like I said,

Headline:

States mobilize National Guard to round up and shoot senior citizens........
 

AHansom

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Got my 2nd shot at 7 this morning. So far 12 hours later, no worse than the first. Ill wait and will see what the night brings:eek:
 
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cwbullet

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As far as culling wild animals, I do not think we need to start slaughtering pigs in the streets. We need evidence to support any culling of any herds.
 

BABAR

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dr wogz

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meanwhile in Quebec:

The 2nd shot / booster to be delayed 90 days. Better to have many partially vaccinated than a handful fully vaccinated..

 

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