Covid Vaccines

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NateB

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We are starting to get more information from the Indiana Dept of Health, EMS Commission, and my employer's director of infection control concerning the distribution of the Covid vaccine. From the State, they want to prioritize healthcare providers, but don't anticipate enough of the vaccine with the first deliveries for everyone who qualifies. Rightfully so, it looks like the highest priority will be given to ICU staff and caregivers and residents at ECFs.
 

OverTheTop

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With the announcement in the UK of the vaccine being registered they have prioritised something like this:
  1. Residents of nursing homes
  2. People over the age of 80
  3. Medical personnel
Not sure about the final details.
 

afadeev

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Phase 1a
  • Health care personnel (~21million)
  • LTCF residents (~3M)
Phase 1b
  • Essential workers (examples: Education Sector, Food & Agriculture, Utilities, Police, Firefighters, Corrections Officers, Transportation)
Phase1c
  • Adults with high -risk medical conditions
  • Adults 65+

Following vaccination, measures to stop the possible spread of SARS-CoV-2, such as masks and social distancing, will still be needed.
 

cwbullet

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We are starting to get more information from the Indiana Dept of Health, EMS Commission, and my employer's director of infection control concerning the distribution of the Covid vaccine. From the State, they want to prioritize healthcare providers, but don't anticipate enough of the vaccine with the first deliveries for everyone who qualifies. Rightfully so, it looks like the highest priority will be given to ICU staff and caregivers and residents at ECFs.
We are going very similar. I think the DOD is going to essetnial in many locations to assist with the distribution.
 

BABAR

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We are going very similar. I think the DOD is going to essetnial in many locations to assist with the distribution.
Sooooo......U.S. military forces are going to be deployed throughout the US and its territories with the express purpose of shooting civilians and medical personnel?

That's gonna make a great headline.
 

Nytrunner

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Phase1c
  • Adults with high -risk medical conditions
  • Adults 65+
How will that at-risk group respond to the vaccine introduction to their systems?
(i know its early and we don't have that answer, but it does spark some concern)
 

cwbullet

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Sooooo......U.S. military forces are going to be deployed throughout the US and its territories with the express purpose of shooting civilians and medical personnel?

That's gonna make a great headline.
No. They are going to assist with distribution and likely not inoculation.
 

NateB

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No. They are going to assist with distribution and likely not inoculation.
Indiana has approved allowing EMS providers to assist with inoculation where it is needed. The state did the same with H1N1. Paramedics are already trained in IM injections and many EMTs have now been trained due to the cost of Epi-Pens being so much higher than a vial of Epi and a syringe. It makes sense to allow them help administer a vaccine if there are not enough providers in a certain area.
 

NateB

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How will that at-risk group respond to the vaccine introduction to their systems?
(i know its early and we don't have that answer, but it does spark some concern)
When the CDC Panel voted on the vaccination guidelines, the lone dissent was from a Vanderbilt physician with these same concerns.



The one “no” vote came from Dr. Helen Talbot, an associate professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University. After the vote, Talbot said that she supported giving the vaccine to health care workers, but had concerns about frail, older residents of long-term care facilities receiving the shot and whether the vaccines would work as well for them.
 

ThirstyBarbarian

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How long until the rest of us can get it? I understand the need to prioritize, but I’m anxious to have it myself, and I’d like to know when that is likely to happen.
 

NateB

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How long until the rest of us can get it? I understand the need to prioritize, but I’m anxious to have it myself, and I’d like to know when that is likely to happen.
Indiana did not give an estimated time line for vaccine distribution. I would expect more updates over the next several days and weeks.

Indiana outlined each phase similar to the CDC guidelines:

Phase 1a is healthcare and ECF residents
Phase 1b is other essential employees

Phase 2 is high risk people

Phase 3 is the general public
 

HHaase

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No. They are going to assist with distribution and likely not inoculation.
That's what we always got called out for in the Guard. Transportation, traffic control, and manual labor. Very rarely any specialized requests. Usually the phone call would be something along the lines of "how many deuces do you have fueled, and how many drivers are available?"
 

blueapplepaste

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How long until the rest of us can get it? I understand the need to prioritize, but I’m anxious to have it myself, and I’d like to know when that is likely to happen.
Goldman Sachs has forecasted that demand and supply will converge in March.

They've modeled based on anticipated number of doses and how many people have indicated they are willing to take the vaccine.

Now it's quite possible that once it's actually available, more people may want it and you may have to wait longer.

There's also the J&J vaccine which, if successful, will be coming early 2021. And a couple of others. So the supply should grow beyond just Pfizer and Moderna, which will further help.

Still so many unknowns at this point. I would wager that by Memorial Day anyone who wants one can have one, with a good chance that's sooner.
 

kuririn

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Just read about an interesting proposal by a former Maryland congressman.
He proposes giving a $1500 stimulus check to everyone who gets vaccinated.
Anyone who does not want to get vaccinated will not be forced to, they will just miss out on the check.
Sounds like a great incentive and perhaps a way to achieve 75% herd immunity.
Sign me up.
 

cwbullet

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Just read about an interesting proposal by a former Maryland congressman.
He proposes giving a $1500 stimulus check to everyone who gets vaccinated.
Anyone who does not want to get vaccinated will not be forced to, they will just miss out on the check.
Sounds like a great incentive and perhaps a way to achieve 75% herd immunity.
Sign me up.
I'd be the first in line as long as tax those who refuse to get vaccinated. Hmm like $6000
 

afadeev

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How long until the rest of us can get it? I understand the need to prioritize, but I’m anxious to have it myself, and I’d like to know when that is likely to happen.
So would all of us.
In truth - no-one knows at this time.

There are multiple manufacturing capacity constraints for different vaccines, varying handling refrigeration requirements, as well as lack of plans on how to distribute those vaccines to the US population:
 
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afadeev

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Goldman Sachs has forecasted that demand and supply will converge in March.
Any references to that forecast?

The closest I can find is this Salveen Richter podcast:

She suggests "distribution to the broader population in 2Q '21", and that's not accounting for the distribution / delivery challenges.

They've modeled based on anticipated number of doses and how many people have indicated they are willing to take the vaccine.
The latter, namely US population's willingness to get vaccinated, is the wildcard in all of these projections.
Gallup poll, referenced in the article below, reports 58% of Americans are willing to get vaccinated, while 42% said they would be unwilling to get a vaccine.
“The answer is not the vaccine; it’s vaccinations. The vaccine needs to be widely adopted and accepted for it to work:”

Now it's quite possible that once it's actually available, more people may want it and you may have to wait longer.
The unaccounted-for variable is how active of a campaign will the anti-vaxers of all stripes, the Russians, and the far-right circles, be staging.
And how effective will those efforts prove to be.
The starting point of 42% of Americans unwilling to get the vaccine is not great.

We've already seen far-right's rallying cry that Covid-19 is a "Plandemic".
The same folks are now playing on people fears in all their usual ways:

Anyone wants to bet against QAnon, Proud Boys, and Boogaloo crowd resorting to violence on Covid-19 vaccination centers and doctors?

I would wager that by Memorial Day anyone who wants one can have one, with a good chance that's sooner.
While I would wish for that to be true, I suspect that may be a bit optimistic.
On the other hand, the current administration is projecting that the general US population may getfirst doses of an approved coronavirus vaccine "starting in April and through July if all continues on track "

So, maybe 2Q-3Q'21?
Unless one finds a way to jump ahead in line, or anti-vaxers succeed in significantly suppressing the demand?
 

boatgeek

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Would schoolchildren and K-12 teachers be in the “general public” category presuming they don’t meet another criterion above? If they are, that means school in a lot of places isn’t opening until fall at best. It will be harder to get back on track economically without schools open.
 

boatgeek

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Also, I don’t think the Proud Boys or allied groups will attack vaccine distribution. Their continued existence depends on tacit support to willful ignorance on the part of various law enforcement authorities in particular and a swath of the population in general. Attacking vaccine distribution would drop that support in the dumper in an instant. The only possible scenario that I could see them attacking would be mandatory vaccinations. I don’t think that’s likely in the US though there will be de facto mandatory vaccinations for school kids and some other sectors.
 

BABAR

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The way this is currently spreading, my prediction is that we will reach herd immunity in 18 - 24 months, in this case defined as people that either have been vaccinated or have had the virus and are at least temporarily immune. Those that decline the vaccination that HAVEN'T already been infected will likely GET infected as things will open up more and more as portions of the population get vaccinated. NOT that we SHOULD stop wearing masks and social distancing even AFTER getting vaccinated (until we have some more data on the effectiveness and duration of vaccination immunity), but at least in the U.S. cooperation with mask wearing (including if not especially wearing the mask CORRECTLY) and social distancing are poorly practiced NOW with the virus running rampant and with NO current vaccine. Once American people GET vaccinated many if not most are going to at least try to "go back to the candy store", aka back to "life as usual" BEFORE Covid. The higher the percentage of those who decline the vaccine, the higher the death rate will be. It will be unfortunate that there will continue to be ANY more deaths (I am not in any way "gloating" over those who refuse the vaccine then die or have permanent organ damage BECAUSE they declined it), but particularly unfortunate that some of those deaths will be VACCINATED elderly and high risk possibly immunocompromised patients among whom the vaccine MAY not be completely effective, and who will catch if from those who declined TO be vaccinated.
 

BABAR

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Welp, Alabama lawmaker is trying to put together something that makes it illegal to compell someone to get the vaccine (at school, at work, etc...)
that's a tough issue.

Denying someone the right to work is basically denying them the right to life. I can definitely see a justification for requiring it among some professions (Medical, Law Enforcement, maybe Food Handlers..... Public Transit workers? Uber and Lyft Drivers?.) But your truck drivers and office workers and other more common job workers? Harder sell for a mandate.

There's the question, "Is Health Care a Right or a Privilege?"

The flip side is, "Can I force a medical treatment on someone who adamantly is opposed to it?"

Here's the really tough nut to crack: How are we expecting people to "prove" they have been vaccinated? People are already forging Covid Test certificates


A tattoo would be the obvious answer, and would bring down the wrath of a LOT of people who would decline the vaccination possibly for that and only that reason. And for that matter, a tattoo could be faked. How about a "chip"? Now you're REALLY going to freak a non-negligible portion of the population out!

My gut feeling? Make it freely available to everyone on the planet. If they take it, fine. If they don't, 90% or more are going to GET Covid, most of whom are going to do fine, some of whom are going to have permanent sequelae, and some of whom are going to die. In the U.S., for the most part, people are free decline health care, with exceptions in schools, military, and Medicine.
 

Bowman

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that's a tough issue.

Denying someone the right to work is basically denying them the right to life. I can definitely see a justification for requiring it among some professions (Medical, Law Enforcement, maybe Food Handlers..... Public Transit workers? Uber and Lyft Drivers?.) But your truck drivers and office workers and other more common job workers? Harder sell for a mandate.

There's the question, "Is Health Care a Right or a Privilege?"

The flip side is, "Can I force a medical treatment on someone who adamantly is opposed to it?"

Here's the really tough nut to crack: How are we expecting people to "prove" they have been vaccinated? People are already forging Covid Test certificates


A tattoo would be the obvious answer, and would bring down the wrath of a LOT of people who would decline the vaccination possibly for that and only that reason. And for that matter, a tattoo could be faked. How about a "chip"? Now you're REALLY going to freak a non-negligible portion of the population out!

My gut feeling? Make it freely available to everyone on the planet. If they take it, fine. If they don't, 90% or more are going to GET Covid, most of whom are going to do fine, some of whom are going to have permanent sequelae, and some of whom are going to die. In the U.S., for the most part, people are free decline health care, with exceptions in schools, military, and Medicine.
While there is the matter of the individual being free to decline actions aimed at preserving the individual, there is also precedent for requiring action to be taken for the good of the many.
 

BABAR

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While there is the matter of the individual being free to decline actions aimed at preserving the individual, there is also precedent for requiring action to be taken for the good of the many.
Agree, but a VERY slippery slope. Heck, the law enforcement people aren’t enforcing the mask mandates (not that I think they really CAN anyway), we gonna hold someone down and stick a needle in their arm? And denying people the right to say, vote, or renew their driver’s license, or denying them the right to work (certain fields excepted) comes close.

Was it New York that tried legal means to reduce intake of sugary beverages? Americans don’t respond well to coercive health measures, however well intentioned (and likely truly in their best interests!). I am not sure if any nationality does.

Again, I am PRO-vaccination, I just don’t have any illusions as to how easy it is gonna be to sell this to the public.
 

Bowman

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Agree, but a VERY slippery slope. Heck, the law enforcement people aren’t enforcing the mask mandates (not that I think they really CAN anyway), we gonna hold someone down and stick a needle in their arm? And denying people the right to say, vote, or renew their driver’s license, or denying them the right to work (certain fields excepted) comes close.

Was it New York that tried legal means to reduce intake of sugary beverages? Americans don’t respond well to coercive health measures, however well intentioned (and likely truly in their best interests!). I am not sure if any nationality does.

Again, I am PRO-vaccination, I just don’t have any illusions as to how easy it is gonna be to sell this to the public.
As my wife observed, we can't even get the necessary cooperation of people needed to really control this outbreak, what do you think is going to happen when a subsequent virus has a 20% or higher mortality rate.
It's "survival of the fittest" and smartest and statistics are indicating that generally that isn't us.
Too many shun compliance because they selfishly believe it won't hurt them, only the other guy gets really sick.
 

blueapplepaste

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Any references to that forecast?

The closest I can find is this Salveen Richter podcast:

She suggests "distribution to the broader population in 2Q '21", and that's not accounting for the distribution / delivery challenges.
Here you go: https://static.classeditori.it/cont...omment_VaccinatingthePopulation_ATimeline.pdf

The latter, namely US population's willingness to get vaccinated, is the wildcard in all of these projections.
Gallup poll, referenced in the article below, reports 58% of Americans are willing to get vaccinated, while 42% said they would be unwilling to get a vaccine.

The unaccounted-for variable is how active of a campaign will the anti-vaxers of all stripes, the Russians, and the far-right circles, be staging.
And how effective will those efforts prove to be.
The starting point of 42% of Americans unwilling to get the vaccine is not great.
I think (or at least hope!) that a lot of that 42% is skeptical of the accelerated timeline. We keep hearing stories of how it typically takes years to get a vaccine to market, and this one will be to market in under 12 months. I think it's not unreasonable for people to have some skepticism.

However, I'm hoping that as more and more people to get vaccinated, and they share their stories of how it wasn't that bad, how they were able to visit their grandma in the nursing home, were able to have their parents over for an indoor maskless dinner, etc, that others will come around.

Anyone wants to bet against QAnon, Proud Boys, and Boogaloo crowd resorting to violence on Covid-19 vaccination centers and doctors?
Meh - not really worried about that. I'm more worried about black market stuff that diverts real vaccine, or fake vaccines getting into the supply.

While I would wish for that to be true, I suspect that may be a bit optimistic.
On the other hand, the current administration is projecting that the general US population may getfirst doses of an approved coronavirus vaccine "starting in April and through July if all continues on track "

So, maybe 2Q-3Q'21?
Unless one finds a way to jump ahead in line, or anti-vaxers succeed in significantly suppressing the demand?
I think there are just too many unknowns. There could be suppressed demand and extra supply so you can get to the front of the line faster. There could be elevated demand. There could be supply chain issues.

I've been telling myself that I'm hoping for a "normal" Memorial Day to be able to spend with my family. At least that's what I've told my self to keep the hope and sanity for light at the end of the tunnel.
 

blueapplepaste

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Welp, Alabama lawmaker is trying to put together something that makes it illegal to compell someone to get the vaccine (at school, at work, etc...)
Honestly - I think this is something where private industry will be a larger force in driving vaccination. I can easily see things like concerts, airlines, international travel, etc requiring vaccination.

It's cool to be an anti-vaxxer until you can't get on a plane or go to a Bon Jovi concert.
 

Devin Batten

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I think (or at least hope!) that a lot of that 42% is skeptical of the accelerated timeline.
I do find it interesting that within 6 months of Pfizer hitting its 5yr low it comes out with a vaccine eligible for an "accelerated timeline". Not connecting dots just raising an eyebrow. Not that it matters I'm getting stabbed with it wether I want to or not.
 
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